LEANING AGAINST WINDY BANK LENDING

Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that monetary policy reacted to bank loan growth in the United States during the Great Moderation. It then shows that the optimized simple interest‐rate rule features no response to the growth of bank credit. However, the welfare loss associated to the empirical responsiveness is small. The sources of business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining whether a “leaning‐against‐the‐wind” policy is optimal or not. In fact, the predominant role of supply shocks in the model gives rise to a trade‐off between inflation and financial stabilization. (JEL E32, E44, E52)     

A MONETARY BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL FOR INDIA

A New Keynesian monetary business cycle model is constructed to study why monetary transmission in India is weak. Our models feature banking and financial sector frictions as well as an informal sector. The predominant channel of monetary transmission is a credit channel. Our main finding is that base money shocks have a larger and more persistent effect on output than an interest rate shock, as in the data. The presence of an informal sector hinders monetary transmission. Contrary to the consensus view, financial repression in the form of a statutory liquidity ratio and administered interest rates, does not weaken monetary transmission. (JEL E31, E32, E44, E52, E63)     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY DESIGN AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND: EVIDENCE FROM THE LAB

The global economic crisis of 2007–2008 has pushed many advanced economies into a liquidity trap. We design a laboratory experiment on the effectiveness of policy measures to avoid expectation‐driven liquidity traps. Monetary policy alone is not sufficient to avoid liquidity traps, even if it preventively cuts the interest rate when inflation falls below a threshold. However, monetary policy augmented with a fiscal switching rule succeeds in escaping liquidity trap episodes. We measure the effect of fiscal policy on expectations, and report larger‐than‐unity fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound. Experimental results in different treatments are well explained by adaptive learning. (JEL E70, C92, D83, D84, E52, E62)     

当前应对我国通货膨胀的思考

当前国内外环境仍然极为复杂,物价上涨比较快、通胀预期增强。造成这轮通货膨胀的主要原因,在于应对金融危机而采取强力的救市政策、流动性过剩、CPI体系、大宗商品价格等方面。抗通胀不能一味地紧缩货币,搞不好会打压经济增长,很可能出现＂通胀没有管住,经济却出现下滑＂的滞胀危险。治理当前通货膨胀的思路,应结合当前国家宏观政策,从控制信贷、人民币升值、融资、税收、改善收入分配等方面着手。     

H-Day 1967 – An alternative perspective on “propaganda” in the historiography of public relation

This article presents an alternative perspective regarding the concept of “propaganda” in the historiography of public relations. Recent scholars of public relations have rightly criticized early attempts to write the field’s history as a linear progression, from propaganda to excellence. At the same time, however, the same recent scholars have come to accept a linear conceptual change, and that “propaganda” became an impossible term in liberal democratic countries in the 1960s. By using the empirical case of the massive communication efforts initiated by the Swedish Commission on Right-Hand Traffic, which was assigned to implement right-hand traffic in 1967, this article shows that the concept of “propaganda” both occurred frequently and was used in a neutral sense. To deepen the understanding of this alternative perspective, the article both presents how the historical actors conceptualized their work, and describes how the communication work of the Commission was performed.     

THE SUCCESS OF THE FED AND THE DEATH OF MONETARISM

We propose an explanation for the demise of monetarism in the United States. We show that optimal monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between monetary aggregates and inflation if the effect of monetary aggregates on inflation is known precisely and to negative correlations if there is coefficient uncertainty. From 1960 to 1982 the correlation of the monetary base and inflation was positive and so the variance in the growth rate of monetary base in the United States was clearly too large monetary base growth destabilized inflation. However, from 1983 to 2003 variations in monetary base growth were clearly stabilizing and could have been just right. ( JEL E52, E31, E32)     

Kulturwandel im Geldgeschäft? Potenziale einer ethischen Selbsterneuerung im Banken- und Finanzwesen

Following the financial crisis in 2008 a debate about the social benefit of the financial industry, which operates without considering its real-economic consequences, was initiated. The financial industry responded by offering strategies of cultural change (“Kulturwandel”) which foster a more socially responsible financial practice. At the same time the expansion of “ethical” banks aims to establish a banking business avoiding negative externalities of the banking sector. Following the conceptual assumptions of the sociology of critique we study the collectively shared interpretation of a “good” and legitimate financial practice beyond publicly communicated standards of practice. Against this backdrop we evaluate the potentials of normative self-regulation in banking and finance. Our results show that cultural or ethical change is only partly feasible if it exclusively focuses the motives, values and personalities of the individual subjects but neglects the structural as well as institutional conditions of a “good” financial practice.     

Credit at the Corner Store: An Analysis of Resource Exchange among Detroit‐Area Urban Poor

This ethnographic study examines how and why Detroit‐area credit‐constrained members of the urban poor relied on owners/employees of corner convenience stores, known as “party stores,” for accessing short‐term, interest‐free informal credit services. Findings indicate that informal credit at party stores functioned as a low‐ or no‐cost alternative to formal credit and high‐cost fringe banking services such as payday loans, both of which were inaccessible and/or cost prohibitive for informants. These data contribute empirically to a growing body of research on “credit invisibility” by exploring these populations' use of informal credit mechanisms. Findings also make a theoretical contribution by highlighting the importance of resource exchange networks through which members of the urban poor build strong yet disposable social ties in order to respond to economic shocks, combat food insufficiency, and survive economic destitution.     

The Demand for Bank Reserves and Other Monetary Aggregates

The article starts with Haslag's (1998) model of the bank's demand for reserves and reformulates it with a cash-in-advance approach for both financial intermediary and consumer. This gives a demand for a base of cash plus reserves that is not sensitive to who gets the inflation tax transfer. It extends the model to formulate a demand for demand deposits, yielding an M 1-type demand, and then includes exchange credit, yielding an M 2-type demand. Based on the comparative statics of the model, it provides an interpretation of the evidence on monetary aggregates. This explanation relies on the nominal interest as well as technology factors of the banking sector.     

Pure Gold for Broken Bodies: Discursive Techniques Constructing Milk Banking and Peer Milk Sharing in U.S. News

Technological advances provide increased ability to transfer human tissues—blood, organs, milk—from one body to another. This article analyzes mechanisms of reality construction in U.S. news to construct shared human breast milk. Articles used typifications and human interest stories to convey participants as victims, lay heroes, and villains. Milk banking was portrayed as institutionally integrated through associations, expert testimonies, and formalized procedures, making banked milk “pure gold.” Peer sharing was portrayed as institutionally opposed through institutional warnings, expert testimonies, informal procedures, and hypothetical atrocities, making peer milk “fool's gold.” Findings suggest that “biovalue” of human milk is interconnected with institutional processing.     

MONETARY POLICY AND ANTI‐CYCLICAL BANK CAPITAL REGULATION

The financial crisis of 2008–2009 revived attention given to booms and busts in bank credit, and their effects on real activity. This interest sparked two different strands of research in macro. The first one focuses on monetary policy in the context of financial frictions. The second studies capital regulation in banking. To the best of our knowledge, so far these two topics have mostly been studied in isolation from each other. Thus, we still lack an understanding of how monetary policy and bank capital regulation interact in the presence of financial fragility. This paper aims to contribute to furthering this understanding. Specifically, we ask how the monetary policy rule should look like in the presence of cyclical capital requirements. We extend the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with bank capital in Aliaga‐Díaz and Olivero by introducing price rigidities in the spirit of the New‐Keynesian literature. We find that: First, anti‐cyclical requirements have important stabilization properties relative to the case of constant requirements. This is true for all types of fluctuations that we study, which include those caused by productivity, preference, fiscal, monetary, and financial shocks. Second, output and consumption volatilities present in the no regulation economy can be recovered with anti‐cyclical requirements as long as the policy rate responds only slightly to credit spreads. Third, monetary policy rules that respond to credit conditions also perform better in terms of welfare. (JEL E32, E44)     

ARMEN ALCHIAN'S CONTRIBUTION TO MACROECONOMICS

Armen Alchian's contributions to macroeconomics forged important paths that are still crucial to the understanding of monetary theory and monetary policy. We outline Alchian's examination of the fundamental role of money in society and his work (with Benjamin Klein) on the measurement of inflation. We also detail how, in research with Reuben Kessel, Alchian brought insight into the problems that followed the erratic inflation policies of the 1960s and 1970s, explained the effects of anticipated and unanticipated inflation on the real economy, and described the difficulty of identifying the effects of monetary shocks in macroeconomic data.     

Causes of the financial crisis: Risk misperception,policy mistakes,and banks’ bounded rationality

This article describes important determinants of the current financial crisis. In particular, the text focuses on the bounded rationality of banks which contributes to the credit cycle. The credit cycle is the mechanism that links the present financial crisis with earlier crisis. Shortcomings on the side of monetary policy, rating agencies, and bank regulation are also discussed. We propose measures to strengthen the stabilizing effect of market forces, banks’ risk management, as well as possible changes to regulation and monetary policy.     

Getting is Giving: Time Banking as Formalized Generalized Exchange

This article applies principles of the social exchange framework of social psychology to the social phenomenon of time banking. A “time bank” is an organization that facilitates the giving and receiving of services among its members by allowing them to provide a service, such as an hour of tutoring, in exchange for a “time credit,” which can then be redeemed for receipt of a service, such as an hour of yard work. Empirical research on time banking has focused on its ability to build community and its place within the sharing economy as a form of “connected consumption.” We build on these lines of thought by examining the practice of time banking as a formalized version of generalized exchange. Generalized exchange is a prosocial type of social exchange in which benefits are repaid indirectly, sometimes referred to as “paying it forward.” We discuss how two of time banking's most commonly cited benefits, building social capital and empowering members, can be better understood through this lens of generalized exchange. We then identify two specific motivational issues that time banks face and use a social exchange perspective to propose a possible solution under a framework we refer to as getting is giving.     

An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre–World War I and Interwar Periods

We test whether monetary shocks had asymmetric output effects before World War II. Ball and Mankiw (1994) show that expectations of persistent inflation under fiat money can explain why negative monetary shocks had larger effects than positive shocks after World War II. Consistent with this explanation, we find such asymmetry in the interwar period following the abandonment of the gold standard and before it, when agents arguably anticipated this development. We find no monetary asymmetry before World War I, which is consistent with Ball and Mankiw (1994), because under a credible gold standard, agents do not expect persistent inflation.     

Financing low-income housing in South Africa: Borrower experiences and perceptions of banks

South Africa is facing a low-income housing crisis, with the current backlog estimated at over three million units. An obstacle in the provision of low-income housing is the difficulty encountered by commercial banks to extend loans in this market despite supporting initiatives by Government. A lack of knowledge on the borrowing behaviour, preferences and experiences of low-income households in accessing housing finance from the commercial banking sector in South Africa hampers an understanding of the reasons for these problems. This paper's contribution is to provide information on the experiences and perceptions of low-income borrowers in the housing market of South Africa, specifically in their dealings with commercial banks. Results from a survey of 653 households across five provinces of the country are provided. In the survey, a structured questionnaire was used to obtain information on the experiences and perceptions of low-income households about their access to credit and housing finance, their experience of banks, the successes in credit approval, their judgements on the suitability of banks’ home-loan products, as well as preferences with regard to prices and interest rates.     

Banks That Don't Lend? Unlocking Credit to Spur Growth in Developing Countries

This article explores the level of liquidity within the banking systems of developing countries and the potential impact on rates of economic growth from prudently redirecting a portion of liquid assets into credit to the private sector. It finds that banks in developing countries are extremely liquid and growth rates per capita might increase substantially in response to heightened lending to the private sector. It then summarises the primary obstacles to this and presents several policy reforms that can augment the level of credit to the private sector in developing countries.     

LENDING RELATIONSHIPS AND MONETARY POLICY

Financial intermediation and bank spreads are the important elements in the analysis of business cycle transmission and monetary policy. We present a simple framework that introduces lending relationships, a relevant feature of financial intermediation that has been so far neglected in the monetary economics literature, into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with staggered prices and cost channels. Our main findings are (a) banking spreads move countercyclically generating amplified output responses, (b) spread movements are important for monetary policymaking even when a standard Taylor Rule is employed, (c) modifying the policy rule to include a banking spread adjustment improves stabilization of shocks and increases welfare when compared to rules that only respond to output gap and inflation, and finally (d) the presence of strong lending relationships in the banking sector can lead to indeterminacy of equilibrium forcing the Central Bank to react to spread movements. (JEL E44, E52, G21)     

A Sociological Review of China's Social Credit Systems and Guanxi Opportunities for Social Mobility

This paper proposes a novel understanding of social mobility in China by exploring the literature on social credit systems. I propose that social credit systems, which include credit rating systems and factors of social governance, can affect occupational attainment, as they may influence or function in tandem with guanxi networks. Through social credit systems, there could possibly be a new order of stratification powered by norms of social conformity. These systems can curtail social mobility efforts by designating some individuals as high risk. In addition, these systems can regulate social behaviors, as actions that are considered “right” are rewarded, while “wrong” actions result in penalties.