Confidence Intervals for the Hyperparameters in Structural Models

This article deals with the bootstrap as an alternative method to construct confidence intervals for the hyperparameters of structural models. The bootstrap procedure considered is the classical nonparametric bootstrap in the residuals of the fitted model using a well-known approach. The performance of this procedure is empirically obtained through Monte Carlo simulations implemented in Ox. Asymptotic and percentile bootstrap confidence intervals for the hyperparameters are built and compared by means of the coverage percentages. The results are similar but the bootstrap procedure is better for small sample sizes. The methods are applied to a real time series and confidence intervals are built for the hyperparameters.     

Nonparametric confidence regions via the analytic wild bootstrap

The wild bootstrap is a nonparametric tool that can be used to estimate a sampling distribution in the presence of heteroscedastic errors. In particular, the wild bootstrap enables us to compute confidence regions for regression parameters under non-i.i.d. models. While the wild bootstrap may perform well in these settings, its obvious drawback is a lack of computational efficiency. The wild bootstrap requires a large number of bootstrap replications, making the use of this tool impractical when dealing with big data. We introduce the analytic wild bootstrap (ANWB), which provides a nonparametric alternative way of constructing confidence regions for regression parameters. The ANWB is superior to the wild bootstrap from a computational standpoint while exhibiting similar finite-sample performance. We report simulation results for both least squares and ridge regression. Additionally, we test the ANWB on a real dataset and compare its performance with that of other standard approaches.     

Bootstrap methods for the nonparametric assessment of population bioequivalence and similarity of distributions

A completely nonparametric approach to population bioequivalence in crossover trials has been suggested by Munk and Czado (1999). It is based on the Mallows (1972) metric as a nonparametric distance measure which allows the comparison between the entire distribution functions of test and reference formulations. It was shown that a separation between carry-over and period effects is not possible in the nonparametric setting. However when carry-over effects can be excluded, treatment effects can be assessed when period effects are or not. Munk and Czado (1999) proved bootstrap limit laws of the corresponding test statistics because estimation of the limiting variance of the test statistic is very cumbersome. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the small sample behavior of various bootstrap methods and to compare it with the asymptotic test obtained by estimation of the limiting variance. The percentile (PC) and bias correct- ed and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap were compared for multivariate normal and nonnormal populations. From the simulation results presented, the BCA bootstrap is found to be less conservative and provides higher power compared to the PC bootstrap, especially when skewed multivariate populations are present.     

On Robustness of Model-Based Bootstrap Schemes in Nonparametric Time Series Analysis

Theory in time series analysis is often developed under the assumption of finite-dimensional models for the data generating process. Whereas corresponding estimators such as those of a conditional mean function are reasonable even if the true dependence mechanism is more complex, it is usually necessary to capture the whole dependence structure asymptotically for the bootstrap to be valid. In contrast, we show that certain simplified bootstrap schemes which imitate only some aspects of the time series are consistent for quantities arising in nonparametric statistics. To this end, we generalize the well-known "whitening by windowing" principle to joint distributions of nonparametric estimators of the autoregression function. Consequently, we obtain that model-based nonparametric bootstrap schemes remain valid for supremum-type functionals as long as they mimic those finite-dimensional joint distributions consistently which determine the quantity of interest. As an application, we show that simple regression-type bootstrap schemes can be applied for the determination of critical values for nonparametric tests of parametric or semiparametric hypotheses on the autoregression function in the context of a general process.     

Bootstrapping with auxiliary information

In the nonparametric setting, the standard bootstrap method is based on the empirical distribution function of a random sample. The author proposes, by means of the empirical likelihood technique, an alternative bootstrap procedure under a nonparametric model in which one has some auxiliary information about the population distribution. By proving the almost sure weak convergence of the modified bootstrapped empirical process, the validity of the proposed bootstrap procedure is established. This new result is used to obtain bootstrap confidence bands for the population distribution function and to perform the bootstrap Kolmogorov test in the presence of auxiliary information. Other applications include bootstrapping means and variances with auxiliary information. Three simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed bootstrap procedure for small samples.     

Bootstrapping the conditional copula

This paper is concerned with inference about the dependence or association between two random variables conditionally upon the given value of a covariate. A way to describe such a conditional dependence is via a conditional copula function. Nonparametric estimators for a conditional copula then lead to nonparametric estimates of conditional association measures such as a conditional Kendall's tau. The limiting distributions of nonparametric conditional copula estimators are rather involved. In this paper we propose a bootstrap procedure for approximating these distributions and their characteristics, and establish its consistency. We apply the proposed bootstrap procedure for constructing confidence intervals for conditional association measures, such as a conditional Blomqvist beta and a conditional Kendall's tau. The performances of the proposed methods are investigated via a simulation study involving a variety of models, ranging from models in which the dependence (weak or strong) on the covariate is only through the copula and not through the marginals, to models in which this dependence appears in both the copula and the marginal distributions. As a conclusion we provide practical recommendations for constructing bootstrap-based confidence intervals for the discussed conditional association measures.     

Non parametric resampling for stationary Markov processes: The local grid bootstrap approach

A new resampling technique, referred as “local grid bootstrap” (LGB), based on nonparametric local bootstrap and applicable to a wide range of stationary general space Markov processes is proposed. This nonparametric technique resamples local neighborhoods defined around the true samples of the observed multivariate time serie. The asymptotic behavior of this resampling procedure is studied in detail. Applications to linear and nonlinear (in particular chaotic) simulated time series are presented, and compared to Paparoditis and Politis [2002. J. Statist. Plan. Inf. 108, 301–328] approach, referred as “local bootstrap” (LB) and developed in earlier similar works. The method shows to be efficient and robust even when the length of the observed time series is reasonably small.     

Smoothed bootstrap bandwidth selection for nonparametric hazard rate estimation

A smoothed bootstrap method is presented for the purpose of bandwidth selection in nonparametric hazard rate estimation for iid data. In this context, two new bootstrap bandwidth selectors are established based on the exact expression of the bootstrap version of the mean integrated squared error of some approximations of the kernel hazard rate estimator. This is very useful since Monte Carlo approximation is no longer needed for the implementation of the two bootstrap selectors. A simulation study is carried out in order to show the empirical performance of the new bootstrap bandwidths and to compare them with other existing selectors. The methods are illustrated by applying them to a diabetes data set.     

Modified Group Runs Control Charts to Detect Increases in Fraction Non Conforming and Shifts in the Process Mean

The nonparametric two-sample bootstrap is employed to compute uncertainties of measures in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis on large datasets in areas such as biometrics, and so on. In this framework, the bootstrap variability was empirically studied without a normality assumption, exhaustively in five scenarios involving both high- and low-accuracy matching algorithms. With a tolerance 0.02 of the coefficient of variation, it was found that 2000 bootstrap replications were appropriate for ROC analysis on large datasets in order to reduce the bootstrap variance and ensure the accuracy of the computation.     

A nonparametric test for similarity of marginals—With applications to the assessment of population bioequivalence

In this paper we suggest a completely nonparametric test for the assessment of similar marginals of a multivariate distribution function. This test is based on the asymptotic normality of Mallows distance between marginals. It is also shown that the n out of n bootstrap is weakly consistent, thus providing a theoretical justification to the work in Czado, C. and Munk, A. [2001. Bootstrap methods for the nonparametric assessment of population bioequivalence and similarity of distributions. J. Statist. Comput. Simulation 68, 243–280]. The test is extended to cross-over trials and is applied to the problem of population bioequivalence, where two formulations of a drug are shown to be similar up to a tolerable limit. This approach was investigated in small samples using bootstrap techniques in Czado, C., Munk, A. [2001. Bootstrap methods for the nonparametric assessment of population bioequivalence and similarity of distributions. J. Statist. Comput. Simulation 68, 243–280], showing that the bias corrected and accelerated bootstrap yields a very accurate and powerful finite sample correction. A data example is discussed.     

Monotone Nonparametric Regression and Confidence Intervals

Several variations of monotone nonparametric regression have been developed over the past 30 years. One approach is to first apply nonparametric regression to data and then monotone smooth the initial estimates to “iron out” violations to the assumed order. Here, such estimators are considered, where local polynomial regression is first used, followed by either least squares isotonic regression or a monotone method using simple averages. The primary focus of this work is to evaluate different types of confidence intervals for these monotone nonparametric regression estimators through Monte Carlo simulation. Most of the confidence intervals use bootstrap or jackknife procedures. Estimation of a response variable as a function of two continuous predictor variables is considered, where the estimation is performed at the observed values of the predictors (instead of on a grid). The methods are then applied to data involving subjects that worked at plants that use beryllium metal who have developed chronic beryllium disease.     

A Comparison of Some Methods for the Selection of a Common Eigenvector Model for the Covariance Matrices of Two Groups

Two new nonparametric common principal component model selection procedures based on bootstrap distributions of the vector correlations of all combinations of the eigenvectors from two groups are proposed. The performance of these methods is compared in a simulation study to the two parametric methods previously suggested by Flury in 1988, as well as modified versions of two nonparametric methods proposed by Klingenberg in 1996 and then by Klingenberg and McIntyre in 1998. The proposed bootstrap vector correlation distribution (BVD) method is shown to outperform all of the existing methods in most of the simulated situations considered.     

Discrete Nonparametric Kernel and Parametric Methods for the Modeling of Pavement Deterioration

This article is concerned with one discrete nonparametric kernel and two parametric regression approaches for providing the evolution law of pavement deterioration. The first parametric approach is a survival data analysis method; and the second is a nonlinear mixed-effects model. The nonparametric approach consists of a regression estimator using the discrete associated kernels. Some asymptotic properties of the discrete nonparametric kernel estimator are shown as, in particular, its almost sure consistency. Moreover, two data-driven bandwidth selection methods are also given, with a new theoretical explicit expression of optimal bandwidth provided for this nonparametric estimator. A comparative simulation study is realized with an application of bootstrap methods to a measure of statistical accuracy.     

A nonparametric plug-in rule for selecting optimal block lengths for block bootstrap methods

In this paper, we consider the problem of empirical choice of optimal block sizes for block bootstrap estimation of population parameters. We suggest a nonparametric plug-in principle that can be used for estimating ‘mean squared error’-optimal smoothing parameters in general curve estimation problems, and establish its validity for estimating optimal block sizes in various block bootstrap estimation problems. A key feature of the proposed plug-in rule is that it can be applied without explicit analytical expressions for the constants that appear in the leading terms of the optimal block lengths. Furthermore, we also discuss the computational efficacy of the method and explore its finite sample properties through a simulation study.     

Stabilizing bootstrap‐t confidence intervals for small samples

A major use of the bootstrap methodology is in the construction of nonparametric confidence intervals. Although no consensus has yet been reached on the best way to proceed, theoretical and empirical evidence indicate that bootstra.‐t intervals provide a reasonable solution to this problem. However, when applied to small data sets, these intervals can be unusually wide and unstable. The author presents techniques for stabilizing bootstra.‐t intervals for small samples. His methods are motivated theoretically and investigated though simulations.     

Nonparametric standard errors and confidence intervals

We investigate several nonparametric methods; the bootstrap, the jackknife, the delta method, and other related techniques. The first and simplest goal is the assignment of nonparametric standard errors to a real-valued statistic. More ambitiously, we consider setting nonparametric confidence intervals for a real-valued parameter. Building on the well understood case of confidence intervals for the median, some hopeful evidence is presented that such a theory may be possible.     

Selection of Predictors in Distance-Based Regression

Distance-based regression is a prediction method consisting of two steps: from distances between observations we obtain latent variables which, in turn, are the regressors in an ordinary least squares linear model. Distances are computed from actually observed predictors by means of a suitable dissimilarity function. Being generally nonlinearly related with the response, their selection by the usual F tests is unavailable. In this article, we propose a solution to this predictor selection problem by defining generalized test statistics and adapting a nonparametric bootstrap method to estimate their p-values. We include a numerical example with automobile insurance data.     

A weighted bootstrap approximation for comparing the error distributions in nonparametric regression

Several procedures have been proposed for testing the equality of error distributions in two or more nonparametric regression models. Here we deal with methods based on comparing estimators of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the errors in each population to an estimator of the common CDF under the null hypothesis. The null distribution of the associated test statistics has been approximated by means of a smooth bootstrap (SB) estimator. This paper proposes to approximate their null distribution through a weighted bootstrap. It is shown that it produces a consistent estimator. The finite sample performance of this approximation is assessed by means of a simulation study, where it is also compared to the SB. This study reveals that, from a computational point of view, the proposed approximation is more efficient than the one provided by the SB.     

EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD METHODS FOR THE GINI INDEX

The Gini index and its generalizations have been used extensively for measuring inequality and poverty in the social sciences. Recently, interval estimation based on nonparametric statistics has been proposed in the literature, for example the naive bootstrap method, the iterated bootstrap method and the bootstrap method via a pivotal statistic. In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods to construct confidence intervals for the Gini index or the difference of two Gini indices. Simulation studies show that the proposed empirical likelihood method performs slightly worse than the bootstrap method based on a pivotal statistic in terms of coverage accuracy, but it requires less computation. However, the bootstrap calibration of the empirical likelihood method performs better than the bootstrap method based on a pivotal statistic.     

Two-sample nonparametric stochastic order inference with an application in plant physiology

In this paper, a new nonparametric methodology is developed for testing whether the changing pattern of a response variable over multiple ordered sub-populations from one treatment group differs with the one from another treatment group. The question is formalized into a nonparametric two-sample comparison problem for the stochastic order among subsamples, through U-statistics with accommodations for zero-inflated distributions. A novel bootstrap procedure is proposed to obtain the critical values with given type I error. Following the procedure, bootstrapped p-values are obtained through simulated samples. It is proven that the distribution of the test statistics is independent from the underlying distributions of the subsamples, when certain sufficient statistics provided. Furthermore, this study also develops a feasible framework for power studies to determine sample sizes, which is necessary in real-world applications. Simulation results suggest that the test is consistent. The methodology is illustrated using a biological experiment with a split-plot design, and significant differences in changing patterns of seed weight between treatments are found with relative small subsample sizes.