Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

An Asymptotic Linear Representation for the Breslow Estimator

We provide an asymptotic linear representation for the Breslow estimator of the baseline cumulative hazard function in the Cox model. Our representation consists of an average of independent random variables and a term involving the difference between the maximum partial likelihood estimator and the underlying regression parameter. The order of the remainder term is arbitrarily close to n ^?1.     

Robustness of weighted L p–depth and L p–median

Summary: L ^p –norm weighted depth functions are introduced and the local and global robustness of these weighted L ^p –depth functions and their induced multivariate medians are investigated via influence function and finite sample breakdown point. To study the global robustness of depth functions, a notion of finite sample breakdown point is introduced. The weighted L ^p –depth functions turn out to have the same low breakdown point as some other popular depth functions. Their influence functions are also unbounded. On the other hand, the weighted L ^p –depth induced medians are globally robust with the highest possible breakdown point for any reasonable estimator. The weighted L ^p –medians are also locally robust with bounded influence functions for suitable weight functions. Unlike other existing depth functions and multivariate medians, the weighted L ^p depth and medians are easy to calculate in high dimensions. The price for this advantage is the lack of affine invariance and equivariance of the weighted L ^p depth and medians, respectively.*The author thanks the referees for their very insightful and constructive comments and suggestions which led to corrections and substantial improvements. Supported in part by NSF Grants DMS-0071976 and DMS-0134628.     

The optimal Lp norm estimator in linear regression models

The least squares estimator is usually applied when estimating the parameters in linear regression models. As this estimator is sensitive to departures from normality in the residual distribution, several alternatives have been proposed. The L_p norm estimators is one class of such alternatives. It has been proposed that the kurtosis of the residual distribution be taken into account when a choice of estimator in the L_p norm class is made (i.e. the choice of p). In this paper, the asymtotic variance of the estimators is used as the criterion in the choice of p. It is shown that when this criterion is applied, other characteristics of the residual distribution than the kurtosis (namely moments of order p-2 and 2p-2) are important.     

Variances of UMVU Estimators for Means and Variances After Using a Normalizing Transformation

Suppose that the function f is of recursive type and the random variable X is normally distributed with mean μ and variance α². We set C = f(x). Neyman & Scott (1960) and Hoyle (1968) gave the UMVU estimators for the mean E(C) and for the variance Var(C) from independent and identically distributed random variables X₁,…, X_n(n ≧ 2) having a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ², respectively. Shimizu & Iwase (1981) gave the variance of the UMVU estimator for E(C). In this paper, the variance of the UMVU estimator for Var(C) is given.     

Lp convergence and complete convergence for weighted sums of AANA random variables

Let {X_n, n ? 1} be a sequence of asymptotically almost negatively associated (AANA, for short) random variables which is stochastically dominated by a random variable X, and {d_ni, 1 ? i ? n, n ? 1} be a sequence of real function, which is defined on a compact set E. Under some suitable conditions, we investigate some convergence properties for weighted sums of AANA random variables, especially the L^p convergence and the complete convergence. As an application, the Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund-type strong law of large numbers for AANA random variables is obtained.     

On the mean L1-error in the heteroscedastic deconvolution problem with compactly supported noises

We study the heteroscedastic deconvolution problem when random noises have compactly supported densities. In this context, the Fourier transforms of the densities can vanish on the real line. We propose a truncated type of estimator for target density and derive the convergence rate of the mean L¹-error uniformly over a class of target densities. A lower bound for the mean L¹-error is also established. Some simulations will be given to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimator.     

Testing for Threshold Diffusion

The threshold diffusion model assumes a piecewise linear drift term and a piecewise smooth diffusion term, which constitutes a rich model for analyzing nonlinear continuous-time processes. We consider the problem of testing for threshold nonlinearity in the drift term. We do this by developing a quasi-likelihood test derived under the working assumption of a constant diffusion term, which circumvents the problem of generally unknown functional form for the diffusion term. The test is first developed for testing for one threshold at which the drift term breaks into two linear functions. We show that under some mild regularity conditions, the asymptotic null distribution of the proposed test statistic is given by the distribution of certain functional of some centered Gaussian process. We develop a computationally efficient method for calibrating the p-value of the test statistic by bootstrapping its asymptotic null distribution. The local power function is also derived, which establishes the consistency of the proposed test. The test is then extended to testing for multiple thresholds. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed test by simulations. Using the proposed test, we examine the evidence of nonlinearity in the term structure of a long time series of U.S. interest rates.     

Construction of a criterion for testing hypothesis about covariance function of a stationary Gaussian stochastic process with unknown mean

In this paper, a new criterion is constructed for testing hypothesis about covariance function of Gaussian stationary stochastic process with an unknown mean. This criterion is based on the fact that we can estimate the deviation of covariance function from its estimator with a given accuracy and reliability in L_p metric.     

Multiparameter estimation of discrete exponential distributions

Let X₁, …, X_p be independent random variables, all having the same distribution up to a possibly varying unspecified parameter, where each of the p distributions belongs to the family of one parameter discrete exponential distributions. The problem is to estimate the unknown parameters simultaneously. Hudson (1978) shows that the minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE) of the parameters is inadmissible under squared error loss, and estimators better than the MVUE are proposed. Essentially, these estimators shrink the MVUE towards the origin. In this paper, we indicate that estimators shifting the MVUE towards a point different from the origin or a point determined by the observations can be obtained.     

Estimation of proportions by group testing with retesting of positive groups

Abstract

When estimating a proportion p by group testing, and it is desired to increase precision, it is sometimes impractical to obtain additional individuals but it is possible to retest groups formed from the individuals within the groups that test positive at the first stage. Hepworth and Watson assessed four methods of retesting, and recommended a random regrouping of individuals from the first stage. They developed an estimator of p for their proposed method, and, because of the analytic complexity, used simulation to examine its variance properties. We now provide an analytical solution to the variance of the estimator, and compare its performance with the earlier simulated results. We show that our solution gives an acceptable approximation in a reasonable range of circumstances.     

Estimation of Pr( x<y ) in the exponential case with common location parameter

This paper considers the problem of estimating the probability P = Pr(X < Y) when X and Y are independent exponential random variables with unequal scale parameters and a common location parameter. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of P is obtained. The asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained and then the asymptotic equivalence of the two estimators is established. Performance of the two estimators for moderate sample sizes is studied by Monte Carlo simulation. An approximate interval estimator is also obtained.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Stochastic Differential Equations with Random Effects

Abstract. We consider N independent stochastic processes (X _i (t), t ∈ [0,T _i ]), i=1,…, N, defined by a stochastic differential equation with drift term depending on a random variable φ _i . The distribution of the random effect φ _i depends on unknown parameters which are to be estimated from the continuous observation of the processes X_i. We give the expression of the exact likelihood. When the drift term depends linearly on the random effect φ _i and φ _i has Gaussian distribution, an explicit formula for the likelihood is obtained. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian, when T _i =T for all i and N tends to infinity. We discuss the case of discrete observations. Estimators are computed on simulated data for several models and show good performances even when the length time interval of observations is not very large.     

Improved minimax estimation of a normal precision matrix

Let S_{p × p} have a Wishart distribution with parameter matrix Σ and n degrees of freedom. We consider here the problem of estimating the precision matrix Σ^?1 under the loss functions L₁(σ) tr (σ) - log |σ| and L₂(σ) = tr (σ). James-Stein-type estimators have been derived for an arbitrary p. We also obtain an orthogonal invariant and a diagonal invariant minimax estimator under both loss functions. A Monte-Carlo simulation study indicates that the risk improvement of the orthogonal invariant estimators over the James-Stein type estimators, the Haff (1979) estimator, and the “testimator” given by Sinha and Ghosh (1987) is substantial.     

Estimation of the limit variance for sums under a new weak dependence condition

We prove a self-normalized central limit theorem for a mixing class of processes introduced in Kacem M, Loisel S, Maume-Deschamps V. [Some mixing properties of conditionally independent processes. Commun Statist Theory Methods. 2016;45:1241–1259]. This class is larger than more classical strongly mixing processes and thus our result is more general than [Peligrad M, Shao QM. Estimation of the variance of partial sums for ρ-mixing random variables. J Multivar Anal. 1995;52:140–157; Shi S. Estimation of the variance for strongly mixing sequences. Appl Math J Chinese Univ. 2000;15(1):45–54] ones. The fact that some conditionally independent processes satisfy this kind of mixing properties motivated our study. We investigate the weak consistency as well as the asymptotic normality of the estimator of the variance that we propose.     

An asymptotic representation of a ratio of two statistics and its applications

Some statistics in common use take a form of a ratio of two statistics.In this paper, we will discuss asymptotic properties of the ratio statistic.We obtain an asymptotic representation of the ratio with remainder term o _p(n ^-1) and a Edgeworth expansion with remainder term o(n ^-1/2) And as example, the asymptotic representation and the Edgeworth expansion of the jackknife skewness estimator for U-statistics are established and we discuss the biases of the skewness estimator theoretically.We also apply the result to an estimator of Pearson’s coefficient of variation and the sample correlation coefficient.     

Optimal estimation for finite population mean in two-phase sampling

Using two-phase sampling scheme, we propose a general class of estimators for finite population mean. This class depends on the sample means and variances of two auxiliary variables. The minimum variance bound for any estimator in the class is provided (up to terms of ordern ⁻¹). It is also proved that there exists at least a chain regression type estimator which reaches this minimum. Finally, it is shown that other proposed estimators can reach the minimum variance bound, i.e. the optimal estimator is not unique.     

Simultaneous robust estimation of location and scale parameters: A minimum-distance approach

Simultaneous robust estimates of location and scale parameters are derived from minimizing a minimum-distance criterion function. The criterion function measures the squared distance between the pth power (p > 0) of the empirical distribution function and the pth power of the imperfectly determined model distribution function over the real line. We show that the estimator is uniquely defined, is asymptotically bivariate normal and for p > 0.3 has positive breakdown. If the scale parameter is known, when p = 0.9 the asymptotic variance (1.0436) of the location estimator for the normal model is smaller than the asymptotic variance of the Hodges-Lehmann (HL)estimator (1.0472). Efficiencies with respect to HL and maximum-likelihood estimators (MLE) are 1.0034 and 0.9582, respectively. Similarly, if the location parameter is known, when p = 0.97 the asymptotic variance (0.6158) of the scale estimator is minimum. The efficiency with respect to the MLE is 0.8119. We show that the estimator can tolerate more corrupted observations at oo than at – for p < 1, and vice versa for p > 1.     

Inference for probability of selection with dependently truncated data using a Cox model

A truncated sample consists of realizations of two variables L and T subject to the constraint L < T. One simple solution to dependently truncated data is to take L as a covariate of T in the Cox model. We aimed at studying the probability of selection, P(L < T), in this framework. We proposed the point estimator and derived its asymptotic distribution. Both truncated-only data and censored and truncated data were generated in the simulation study. The proposed point and variance estimators showed good performance in various simulated settings. The bone marrow transplant registry data were analyzed as the illustrative example.     

Improved estimators of common variance of <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>-populations when Kurtosis is known

The pooled variance of p samples presumed to have been obtained from p populations having common variance σ², has invariably been adopted as the default estimator for σ². In this paper, alternative estimators of the common population variance are developed. These estimators are biased and have lower mean-squared error values than . The comparative merit of these estimators over the unbiased estimator is explored using relative efficiency (a ratio of mean-squared error values).