Sequential monitoring of minimum variance portfolio

This paper evaluates the economic effect of monitoring the minimum variance portfolio weights, which depend solely on the covariance matrix of returns. The investor decides whether the portfolio composition providing the smallest portfolio variance remains optimal at the beginning of every new investment period. For this purpose changes in the optimal weights are sequentially detected by means of EWMA control charts. Signals obtained from monitoring are used for improvement of the covariance matrix estimation procedure. The investment strategy exploiting signals from control charts is compared with a number of alternative approaches in the empirical study.     

A robust R control chart based on a two-step estimator of the process dispersion

ABSTRACT

Control charts are the frequently used tools for monitoring and controlling the processes. Classical control charts are sensitive to existing contaminated data which may be presented in the data collected from the processes. Thus, these charts are not able to control the processes precisely when the data are contaminated. Robust control charts are those which are less sensitive to contamination. Some robust control charts for monitoring the process variability were proposed in the past which are robust to some sorts of contamination. In this paper a new robust R control chart is proposed which is less sensitive to wide range of contaminations, i.e. general and local contaminations. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed control chart with some classical and robust control charts, using ARL and MSD as criteria for comparisons purposes. The simulation results show a very good performance of the proposed chart when both types of contaminations exist.     

On the existence of unbiased estimators for the portfolio weights obtained by maximizing the Sharpe ratio

We consider the problem of estimating the portfolio weights obtained by maximizing the Sharpe ratio. Assuming that the underlying asset returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed, Okhrin and Schmid (J. Econom. 134:235–256, 2006) showed that the frequently used sample estimators of these weights do not have a first moment. This paper proves that an unbiased estimator of the Sharpe ratio portfolio weights does not exist at all. Moreover, we show that there is no asymptotically unbiased estimator of these weights within the family of estimators which are bounded by cylinder functions.     

Parametric bootstrap process capability index control charts for both mean and dispersion

Abstract

Non-normal processes are common in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to defining bootstrap process capability index (PCI) control charts to monitor the performance of in-control skew normal processes. We use a bootstrap method to calculate phase I control limits of the corresponding PCI control charts. The β-risk curves of the associated PCI control charts will be used to assess the performance of the PCI control charts. We use Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the performance of the proposed PCI control charts. A numerical example to illustrate the implementation of the proposed control charts.     

Integration of support vector machines and control charts for multivariate process monitoring

Statistical process control tools have been used routinely to improve process capabilities through reliable on-line monitoring and diagnostic processes. In the present paper, we propose a novel multivariate control chart that integrates a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, a bootstrap method, and a control chart technique to improve multivariate process monitoring. The proposed chart uses as the monitoring statistic the predicted probability of class (PoC) values from an SVM algorithm. The control limits of SVM-PoC charts are obtained by a bootstrap approach. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed SVM–PoC chart and to compare it with other data mining-based control charts and Hotelling's T ² control charts under various scenarios. The results showed that the proposed SVM–PoC charts outperformed other multivariate control charts in nonnormal situations. Further, we developed an exponential weighed moving average version of the SVM–PoC charts for increasing sensitivity to small shifts.     

Robustness of the EWMA and the combined X¯–EWMA control charts with variable sampling intervals to non-normality

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts with variable sampling intervals (VSIs) have been shown to be substantially quicker than the fixed sampling intervals (FSI) EWMA control charts in detecting process mean shifts. The usual assumption for designing a control chart is that the data or measurements are normally distributed. However, this assumption may not be true for some processes. In the present paper, the performances of the EWMA and combined X¯–EWMA control charts with VSIs are evaluated under non-normality. It is shown that adding the VSI feature to the EWMA control charts results in very substantial decreases in the expected time to detect shifts in process mean under both normality and non-normality. However, the combined X¯–EWMA chart has its false alarm rate and its detection ability is affected if the process data are not normally distributed.     

Progressive Variance Control Charts for Monitoring Process Dispersion

In a process, the deviation from location or scale parameters affects the quality of the process and waste resources. So it is essential to monitor such processes for possible changes due to any assignable causes. Control charts are the most famous tool used to meet this intention. It is useless to monitor process location until the assurance that process dispersion is in-control. This study proposes some new two-sided memory control charts named as progressive variance (PV) control charts which are based on sample variance to monitor changes in process dispersion assuming normality of quality characteristic to be monitored. Simulation studies are made, and an example is discussed to evaluate the performance of the proposed charts. The comparison of the proposed chart is made with exponentially weighted moving average- and cumulative sum-type charts for process dispersion. The study shows that performance of the proposed charts are uniformly better than its competitors for detecting positive shifts while for detecting negative shift in the variance their performance is better for small shifts and reasonably good for moderated shifts.     

Robustness to non-normality and autocorrelation of individuals control charts

This paper studies the effects of non-normality and autocorrelation on the performances of various individuals control charts for monitoring the process mean and/or variance. The traditional Shewhart X chart and moving range (MR) chart are investigated as well as several types of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts and combinations of control charts involving these EWMA charts. It is shown that the combination of the X and MR charts will not detect small and moderate parameter shifts as fast as combinations involving the EWMA charts, and that the performana of the X and MR charts is very sensitive to the normality assumption. It is also shown that certain combinations of EWMA charts can be designed to be robust to non-normality and very effective at detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean and/or variance. Although autocorrelation can have a significant effect on the in-control performances of these combinations of EWMA charts, their relative out-of-control performances under independence are generally maintained for low to moderate levels of autocorrelation.     

The optimal choice of negative binomial charts for monitoring high-quality processes

Good control charts for high quality processes are often based on the number of successes between failures. Geometric charts are simplest in this respect, but slow in recognizing moderately increased failure rates p. Improvement can be achieved by waiting until r>1 failures have occurred, i.e. by using negative binomial charts. In this paper we analyze such charts in some detail. On the basis of a fair comparison, we demonstrate how the optimal r is related to the degree of increase of p. As in practice p will usually be unknown, we also analyze the estimated version of the charts. In particular, simple corrections are derived to control the nonnegligible effects of this estimation step.     

A generalized pivotal quantity approach to portfolio selection

The major problem of mean–variance portfolio optimization is parameter uncertainty. Many methods have been proposed to tackle this problem, including shrinkage methods, resampling techniques, and imposing constraints on the portfolio weights, etc. This paper suggests a new estimation method for mean–variance portfolio weights based on the concept of generalized pivotal quantity (GPQ) in the case when asset returns are multivariate normally distributed and serially independent. Both point and interval estimations of the portfolio weights are considered. Comparing with Markowitz's mean–variance model, resampling and shrinkage methods, we find that the proposed GPQ method typically yields the smallest mean-squared error for the point estimate of the portfolio weights and obtains a satisfactory coverage rate for their simultaneous confidence intervals. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to address a portfolio rebalancing problem.     

A rational sequential probability ratio test control chart for monitoring process shifts in mean and variance

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) chart is a very effective tool for monitoring manufacturing processes. This paper proposes a rational SPRT chart to monitor both process mean and variance. This SPRT chart determines the sampling interval d based on the rational subgroup concept according to the process conditions and administrative considerations. Since the rational subgrouping is widely adopted in the design and implementation of control charts, the studies of the rational SPRT have a practical significance. The rational SPRT chart is designed optimally in order to minimize the index average extra quadratic loss for the best overall performance. A systematic performance study has also been conducted. From an overall viewpoint, the rational SPRT chart is more effective than the cumulative sum chart by more than 63%. Furthermore, this article provides a design table, which contains the optimal values of the parameters of the rational SPRT charts for different specifications. This will greatly facilitate the potential users to select an appropriate SPRT chart for their applications. The users can also justify the application of the rational SPRT chart according to the achievable enhancement in detection effectiveness.     

Applying State Space to SPC: Monitoring Multivariate Time Series

Monitoring cross-sectional and serially interdependent processes has become a new issue in statistical process control (SPC). In up-to-date SPC literature, Kalman filtering was reported to monitor univariate autocorrelated processes. This paper applies a Kalman filter or state-space method for SPC to monitoring multivariate time series. We use Aoki's approach to estimate the parameter matrices of a state-space model. Multivariate Hotelling T ² control charts are employed to monitor the residuals of the state-space. Examples of this approach are illustrated.     

Multivariate Control Charts Based on Hybrid Novelty Scores

We propose a new nonparametric multivariate control chart that integrates a novelty score. The proposed control chart uses as its monitoring statistic a hybrid novelty score, calculated based on the distance to local observations as well as on the distance to the convex hull constructed by its neighbors. The control limits of the proposed control chart were established based on a bootstrap method. A rigorous simulation study was conducted to examine the properties of the proposed control chart under various scenarios and compare it with existing multivariate control charts in terms of average run length (ARL) performance. The simulation results showed that the proposed control chart outperformed both the parametric and nonparametric Hotelling's T ² control charts, especially in nonnormal situations. Moreover, experimental results with real semiconductor data demonstrated the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed control chart. To increase the capability to detect small mean shift, we propose an exponentially weighted hybrid novelty score control chart. Simulation results indicated that exponentially weighted hybrid score charts outperformed the hybrid novelty score based control charts.     

Linear statistical inference for global and local minimum variance portfolios

Traditional portfolio optimization has often been criticized for not taking estimation risk into account. Estimation risk is mainly driven by the parameter uncertainty regarding the expected asset returns rather than their variances and covariances. The global minimum variance portfolio has been advocated by many authors as an appropriate alternative to the tangential portfolio. This is because there are no expectations which have to be estimated and thus the impact of estimation errors can be substantially reduced. However, in many practical situations an investor is not willing to choose the global minimum variance portfolio but he wants to minimize the variance of the portfolio return under specific constraints for the portfolio weights. Such a portfolio is called local minimum variance portfolio. Small-sample hypothesis tests for global and local minimum variance portfolios are derived and the exact distributions of the estimated portfolio weights are calculated in the present work. The first two moments of the estimator for the expected portfolio returns are also provided and the presented instruments are illustrated by an empirical study.     

Globally applicable control chart for online monitoring of stability of process mean

The shape features of run chart patterns of the most recent m observations arising from stable and unstable processes are different. Using this fact, a new monitoring statistic is defined whose value for given m depends on the pattern parameters but not on the process parameters. A control chart for this statistic for given m, therefore, will be globally applicable to normal processes. The simulation study reveals that the proposed statistic approximately follows normal distribution. The performances of the globally applicable control chart in terms of average run lengths (ARLs) are evaluated and compared with the X chart. Both in-control ARL and out-of-control ARLs with respect to different abnormal process conditions are found to be larger than the X chart. However, the proposed concept is promising because it can eliminate the burden of designing separate control charts for different quality characteristics or processes in a manufacturing set-up.     

Robustness of R-Chart to Non Normality

This study addresses the appropriate d ₃ values for constructing range control charts (R-charts) when the distributions of the processes are the uniform, triangular, exponential, and Erlang. Comparisons of the range charts are based on Type I error probabilities obtained using simulations. The results reveal that inappropriate use of the d ₃ values strongly affected the performance of the R-charts. Practitioners should be more careful in selecting suitable coefficients when using R-charts methods to process data. The distribution of the processes must be examined before the coefficients are chosen.     

SPC for short-run multivariate autocorrelated processes

This paper discusses the development of a multivariate control charting technique for short-run autocorrelated data manufacturing environment. The proposed approach is a combination of the multivariate residual charts for autocorrelated data and the multivariate transformation technique for i.i.d. process observations of short lengths. The proposed approach consists in fitting adequate multivariate time-series model of various process outputs and computes the residuals, transforming them into standard normal N(0, 1) data and then using standardized data as inputs to plot conventional univariate i.i.d. control charts. The objective for applying multivariate finite horizon techniques for autocorrelated processes is to allow continuous process monitoring, since all process outputs are controlled trough the use of a single control chart with constant control limits. Throughout simulated examples, it is shown that the proposed short-run process monitoring technique provides approximately similar shifts detection properties as VAR residual charts.     

Robust Hotelling's T2 control charts under non-normality: the case of t-Student distribution

Traditional multivariate control charts are based upon the assumption that the observations follow a multivariate normal distribution. In many practical applications, however, this supposition may be difficult to verify. In this paper, we use control charts based on robust estimators of location and scale to improve the capability of detection observations out of control under non-normality in the presence of multiple outliers. Concretely, we use a simulation process to analyse the behaviour of the robust alternatives to Hotelling's T ², which use minimum volume ellipsoidal (MVE) and minimum covariance determinant (MCD) in the presence of observations with a Student's t-distribution. The results show that these robust control charts are good alternatives for small deviations from normality due to the fact that the percentage of out-of-control observations detected for these charts in the Phase II are higher.     

Integration of classification algorithms and control chart techniques for monitoring multivariate processes

We propose new multivariate control charts that can effectively deal with massive amounts of complex data through their integration with classification algorithms. We call the proposed control chart the ‘Probability of Class (PoC) chart’ because the values of PoC, obtained from classification algorithms, are used as monitoring statistics. The control limits of PoC charts are established and adjusted by the bootstrap method. Experimental results with simulated and real data showed that PoC charts outperform Hotelling's T ² control charts. Further, a simulation study revealed that a small proportion of out-of-control observations are sufficient for PoC charts to achieve the desired performance.     

New control charts for simultaneous monitoring of the mean vector and covariance matrix of multivariate multiple linear profiles

Simultaneous monitoring of the mean vector and covariance matrix in multivariate processes allows practitioners to avoid the inflated false alarm rate that results from using two independent control charts. In this paper, we extend exponentially weighted moving average semicircle and generally weighted moving average semicircle control charts to monitor the mean vector and covariance matrix of multivariate multiple linear regression profiles in Phase II simultaneously. These new control charts are compared with the existing control charts in the literature in terms of the average run length criterion. Finally, a case is considered to show the application of the proposed charts.