Hypotheses testing for a multidimensional parameter of inhomogeneous Poisson processes

We observe a realization of an inhomogeneous Poisson process whose intensity function depends on an unknown multidimensional parameter. We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the Rao score test for a simple null hypothesis against the multilateral alternative. By using the Edgeworth type expansion (under the null hypothesis) for a vector of stochastic integrals with respect to the Poisson process, we refine the (classic) threshold of the test (obtained by the central limit theorem), which improves the first type probability of error. The expansion allows us to describe the power of the test under the local alternative, i.e. a sequence of alternatives, which converge to the null hypothesis with a certain rate. The rates can be different for components of the parameter.     

Characterization of weak convergence for smoothed empirical and quantile processes under ϕ-mixing

Let X_n, n ⩾ 1 be a sequence of ϕ-mixing random variables having a smooth common distribution function F. The smoothed empirical distribution function is obtained by integrating a kernel type density estimator. In this paper we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the central limit theorem to hold for smoothed empirical distribution functions and smoothed sample quantiles. Also, necessary and sufficient conditions are given for weak convergence of the smoothed empirical process and the smoothed uniform quantile process.     

An improvement of a non-uniform bound for combinatorial central limit theorem

In this article, we develop a new Rosenthal Inequality for uniform random permutation sums of random variables with finite third moments and apply it to obtain a sharp non-uniform bound for the combinatorial central limit theorem using the Stein's method and the exchangeable pair techniques. The obtained bound is shown to be sharper than other existing bounds.     

Central Limit Theorems of Local Polynomial Threshold Estimator for Diffusion Processes with Jumps

Central limit theorems play an important role in the study of statistical inference for stochastic processes. However, when the non‐parametric local polynomial threshold estimator, especially local linear case, is employed to estimate the diffusion coefficients of diffusion processes, the adaptive and predictable structure of the estimator conditionally on the σ ‐field generated by diffusion processes is destroyed, so the classical central limit theorem for martingale difference sequences cannot work. In high‐frequency data, we proved the central limit theorems of local polynomial threshold estimators for the volatility function in diffusion processes with jumps by Jacod's stable convergence theorem. We believe that our proof procedure for local polynomial threshold estimators provides a new method in this field, especially in the local linear case.     

Asymptotically valid single-stage multiple-comparison procedures

We establish general conditions for the asymptotic validity of single-stage multiple-comparison procedures (MCPs) under the following general framework. There is a finite number of independent alternatives to compare, where each alternative can represent, e.g., a population, treatment, system or stochastic process. Associated with each alternative is an unknown parameter to be estimated, and the goal is to compare the alternatives in terms of the parameters. We establish the MCPs’ asymptotic validity, which occurs as the sample size of each alternative grows large, under two assumptions. First, for each alternative, the estimator of its parameter satisfies a central limit theorem (CLT). Second, we have a consistent estimator of the variance parameter appearing in the CLT. Our framework encompasses comparing means (or other moments) of independent (not necessarily normal) populations, functions of means, quantiles, steady-state means of stochastic processes, and optimal solutions of stochastic approximation by the Kiefer–Wolfowitz algorithm. The MCPs we consider are multiple comparisons with the best, all pairwise comparisons, all contrasts, and all linear combinations, and they allow for unknown and unequal variance parameters and unequal sample sizes across alternatives.     

A Test to Detect Within-family Infectivity when the Whole Epidemic Process is Observed

An epidemic model for the spread of an infectious disease in a population of families is considered. The score test of the hypothesis that there is no higher infectivity between family members is constructed under the assumption that the epidemic process is observed continuously up to some time t . The score process is a martingale as a function of t and by letting the number of families tend to infinity, a central limit theorem for the process can be proved. The central limit theorem not only justifies a normal approximation of the test statistic—it also suggests a smaller variance estimator than expected.     

A note on the almost sure central limit theorem for the product of partial sums of m-dependent random variables

We present an almost sure central limit theorem for the product of the partial sums of m-dependent random variables. In order to obtain the main result, we prove a corresponding almost sure central limit theorem for a triangular array.     

Asymptotic normality of the posterior given a statistic

The authors establish the asymptotic normality and determine the limiting variance of the posterior density for a multivariate parameter, given the value of a consistent and asymptotically Gaussian statistic satisfying a uniform local central limit theorem. Their proof is given in the continuous case but generalizes to lattice‐valued random variables. It hinges on a uniform Edgeworth expansion used to control the behaviour of the conditioning statistic. They provide examples and show how their result can help in identifying reference priors.     

Zero variance Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian estimators

Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC estimator, based on the zero-variance principle introduced in the physics literature, is proposed. Conditions for asymptotic unbiasedness of the zero-variance estimator are derived. A central limit theorem is also proved under regularity conditions. The potential of the idea is illustrated with real applications to probit, logit and GARCH Bayesian models. For all these models, a central limit theorem and unbiasedness for the zero-variance estimator are proved (see the supplementary material available on-line).     

A binary control chart to detect small jumps

The classic N p-chart gives a signal if the number of successes in a sequence of independent binary variables exceeds a control limit. Motivated by engineering applications in industrial image processing and, to some extent, financial statistics, we study a simple modification of this chart, which uses only the most recent observations. Our aim is to construct a control chart for detecting a shift of an unknown size, allowing for an unknown distribution of the error terms. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed chart is superior in terms of out-of-control average run length, when one is interested in the detection of very small shifts. We provide a (functional) central limit theorem under a change-point model with local alternatives, which explains that unexpected and interesting behaviour. Since real observations are often not independent, the question arises whether these results still hold true for the dependent case. Indeed, our asymptotic results work under the fairly general condition that the observations form a martingale difference array. This enlarges the applicability of our results considerably, first, to a large class of time series models, and, second, to locally dependent image data, as we demonstrate by an example.     

An almost sure central limit theorem for self-normalized partial sums of weakly dependent random variables

Abstract

We give here an almost sure central limit theorem for self-normalized partial sums of a strictly stationary φ-mixing sequences which is in the domain of attraction of the normal law with mean zero and possibly infinite variance. Our result substantially extend a result on the almost sure central limit theorem previously obtained by Huang and Pang (2010).     

When is n large enough? Looking for the right sample size to estimate proportions

The central limit theorem indicates that when the sample size goes to infinite, the sampling distribution of means tends to follow a normal distribution; it is the basis for the most usual confidence interval and sample size formulas. This study analyzes what sample size is large enough to assume that the distribution of the estimator of a proportion follows a Normal distribution. Also, we propose the use of a correction factor in sample size formulas to ensure a confidence level even when the central limit theorem does not apply for these distributions.     

Estimating the error distribution function in semiparametric additive regression models

We consider semiparametric additive regression models with a linear parametric part and a nonparametric part, both involving multivariate covariates. For the nonparametric part we assume two models. In the first, the regression function is unspecified and smooth; in the second, the regression function is additive with smooth components. Depending on the model, the regression curve is estimated by suitable least squares methods. The resulting residual-based empirical distribution function is shown to differ from the error-based empirical distribution function by an additive expression, up to a uniformly negligible remainder term. This result implies a functional central limit theorem for the residual-based empirical distribution function. It is used to test for normal errors.     

Stochastic Algorithms for the Estimation of an Optimal Solution of a LP Problem. Convergence and Central Limit Theorem

In this article, we consider a Linear Programming (LP) problem with unknown objective function. We introduce a class of stochastic algorithms to estimate an optimal solution of the LP problem. The almost sure convergence and the speed of convergence of these algorithms are analyzed. We also prove a central limit theorem for the estimation errors of the algorithms.     

LAN property for an ergodic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with Poisson jumps

In this article, we consider an ergodic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with jumps driven by a Brownian motion and a compensated Poisson process, whose drift and diffusion coefficients as well as its jump intensity depend on unknown parameters. Considering the process discretely observed at high frequency, we derive the local asymptotic normality property. To obtain this result, Malliavin calculus and Girsanov’s theorem are applied to write the log-likelihood ratio in terms of sums of conditional expectations, for which a central limit theorem for triangular arrays can be applied.     

L'Hospital's Rule and the Central Limit Theorem

Beginning probability students are often confused by the use of Taylor polynomials in the proof of the central limit theorem. This article provides a proof of the central limit theorem based on L'Hospital's rule rather than on Taylor polynomials.     

On confidence intervals for the mean past lifetime function under random censorship

The mean past lifetime (MPL) function (also known as the expected inactivity time function) is of interest in many fields such as reliability theory and survival analysis, actuarial studies and forensic science. For estimation of the MPL function some procedures have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we give a central limit theorem result for the estimator of MPL function based on a right-censored random sample from an unknown distribution. The limiting distribution is used to construct normal approximation-based confidence interval for MPL. Furthermore, we use the empirical likelihood ratio procedure to obtain confidence interval for the MPL function. These two intervals are compared with each other through simulation study in terms of coverage probability. Finally, a couple of numerical example illustrating the theory is also given.     

An application of the Bernoulli part to local limit theorems for moving averages on stationary sequences

We consider partial sums S_n of a general class of stationary sequences of integer-valued random variables, and we provide sufficient conditions for S_n to satisfy a local limit theorem. To prove this result, we introduce a concept called the Bernoulli part. The amount of Bernoulli part in S_n determines the extent to which the density of S_n is relatively flat. If in addition S_n satisfies a global central limit theorem, the local limit theorem follows.     

Classes of power semicircle laws that are randomly weighted average distributions

We give an affirmative answer to the conjecture raised in Soltani and Roozegar [On distribution of randomly ordered uniform incremental weighted averages: divided difference approach. Statist Probab Lett. 2012;82(5):1012–1020] that a certain class of power semicircle distributions, parameterized by n, gives the distributions of the average of n independent and identically Arcsine random variables weighted by the cuts of (0,1) by the order statistics of a uniform (0, 1) sample of size n?1, for each n. Then we establish the central limit theorem for this class of distributions. We also use the Demni [On generalized Cauchy–Stieltjes transforms of some beta distributions. Comm Stoch Anal. 2009;3:197–210] results on the connection between the ordinary and generalized Cauchy or Stieltjes transforms, and introduce new classes of randomly weighted average distributions.     

A functional central limit theorem for Markov additive processes with an application to the closed Lu–Kumar network

A functional central limit theorem for a class of time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov processes (X,Y) is proved. The process X is a positive recurrent Markov process on a countable-state space and the process Y has conditionally independent increments given X. The pair (X,Y) is called a Markov additive process. This paper unifies and generalizes several functional central limit theorems for Markov additive processes. An explicit expression for the variance parameter of the limit process is calculated using the local characteristics of the X process. The functional central limit theorem is then used to prove a heavy traffic limit theorem for the closed Lu–Kumar network.