Multivariate Control Chart Based on Multivariate Smirnov Test

Robust control charts are useful in statistical process control (SPC) when there is limited knowledge about the underlying process distribution, especially for multivariate observations. This article develops a new robust and self-starting multivariate procedure based on multivariate Smirnov test (MST), which integrates a multivariate two-sample goodness-of-fit (GOF) test based on multivariate empirical distribution function (MEDF) and the change-point model. As expected, simulation results show that our proposed control chart is robust to nonnormally distributed data, and moreover, it is efficient in detecting process shifts, especially large shifts, which is one of the main drawbacks of most robust control charts in the literature. As it avoids the need for a lengthy data-gathering step, the proposed chart is particularly useful in start-up or short-run situations. Comparison results and a real data example show that our proposed chart has great potential for application.     

Robust Estimators for the Parameters of Multivariate Lognormal Distribution

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a class of location and scale estimators for the p-variate lognormal distribution. These estimators are obtained by applying a log transform to the data, computing robust Fisher consistent estimators for the obtained Gaussian data and transforming those estimators for the lognormal using the relationship between the parameters of both distributions. We prove some of the properties of these estimators, such as Fisher consistency, robustness and asymptotic normality.     

Adaptive Kalman Filtering with Multivariate Generalized Laplace System Noise

An adaptive Kalman filter is proposed to estimate the states of a system where the system noise is assumed to be a multivariate generalized Laplace random vector. In the presence of outliers in the system noise, it is shown that improved state estimates can be obtained by using an adaptive factor to estimate the dispersion matrix of the system noise term. For the implementation of the filter, an algorithm which includes both single and multiple adaptive factors is proposed. A Monte-Carlo investigation is also carried out to access the performance of the proposed filters in comparison with other robust filters. The results show that, in the sense of minimum mean squared state error, the proposed filter is superior to other filters when the magnitude of a system change is moderate or large.     

Robust designs for multinomial models

Abstract

Model misspecification in generalized linear models (GLMs) occurs usually when the linear predictor and/or the link function assumed are incorrect. This article discusses the effect of such misspecification on design selection for multinomial GLMs and proposes the use of quantile dispersion graphs to select robust designs. Due to misspecification in the model, parameter estimates are usually biased and the designs are compared on the basis of their mean squared error of prediction. Several numerical examples including a real data set are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Computation of the quadrivariate and pentavariate normal cumulative distribution functions

This article provides explicit integration rules for the quadrivariate and the pentavariate normal distribution. By analytically reducing the dimension of the problem and simplifying the functions to be integrated, these rules form the basis for a numerical evaluation scheme yielding an observed maximum error in the order of 10^{? 7} and a computational time of less than 10^{? 6} s. The implementation is very straightforward as it is based on a classical Gauss–Legendre quadrature. Order statistics are also dealt with.     

New HEAVY Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariances and Returns

ABSTRACT

We develop a new score-driven model for the joint dynamics of fat-tailed realized covariance matrix observations and daily returns. The score dynamics for the unobserved true covariance matrix are robust to outliers and incidental large observations in both types of data by assuming a matrix-F distribution for the realized covariance measures and a multivariate Student's t distribution for the daily returns. The filter for the unknown covariance matrix has a computationally efficient matrix formulation, which proves beneficial for estimation and simulation purposes. We formulate parameter restrictions for stationarity and positive definiteness. Our simulation study shows that the new model is able to deal with high-dimensional settings (50 or more) and captures unobserved volatility dynamics even if the model is misspecified. We provide an empirical application to daily equity returns and realized covariance matrices up to 30 dimensions. The model statistically and economically outperforms competing multivariate volatility models out-of-sample. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Robust estimation of multivariate regression model

This paper studies robust estimation of multivariate regression model using kernel weighted local linear regression. A robust estimation procedure is proposed for estimating the regression function and its partial derivatives. The proposed estimators are jointly asymptotically normal and attain nonparametric optimal convergence rate. One-step approximations to the robust estimators are introduced to reduce computational burden. The one-step local M-estimators are shown to achieve the same efficiency as the fully iterative local M-estimators as long as the initial estimators are good enough. The proposed estimators inherit the excellent edge-effect behavior of the local polynomial methods in the univariate case and at the same time overcome the disadvantages of the local least-squares based smoothers. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimators. Real data sets are analyzed to illustrate the practical utility of the proposed methodology. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10471006).     

Robust Estimation of Multi-response Surfaces Considering Correlation Structure

Response surfaces express the behavior of responses and can be used for both single and multi-response problems. A common approach to estimate a response surface using experimental results is the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Since OLS is very sensitive to outliers, some robust approaches have been discussed in the literature. Although there are many methods available in the literature for multiple response optimizations, there are a few studies in model building especially robust models. Assuming correlated responses, in this paper, a robust coefficient estimation method is proposed for multi response problem based on M-estimators. In order to illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure, a contaminated experimental design using a numerical example available in the literature with some modifications is used. Both the classical multivariate least squares method and the proposed robust multivariate approach are used to estimate regression coefficients of multi-response surfaces based on this example. Moreover, a comparison of the proposed robust multi response surface (RMRS) approach with separate robust estimation of single response show that the proposed approach is more efficient.     

Monitoring multivariate simple linear profiles using robust estimators

Brief Abstract

This article focuses on estimation of multivariate simple linear profiles. While outliers may hamper the expected performance of the ordinary regression estimators, this study resorts to robust estimators as the remedy of the estimation problem in presence of contaminated observations. More specifically, three robust estimators M, S and MM are employed. Extensive simulation runs show that in the absence of outliers or for small amount of contamination, the robust methods perform as well as the classical least square method, while for medium and large amounts of contamination the proposed estimators perform considerably better than classical method.     

Joint confidence regions in the multivariate calibration problem

Consider a vector valued response variable related to a vector valued explanatory variable through a normal multivariate linear model. The multivariate calibration problem deals with statistical inference on unknown values of the explanatory variable. The problem addressed is the construction of joint confidence regions for several unknown values of the explanatory variable. The problem is investigated when the variance covariance matrix is a scalar multiple of the identity matrix and also when it is a completely unknown positive definite matrix. The problem is solved in only two cases: (i) the response and explanatory variables have the same dimensions, and (ii) the explanatory variable is a scalar. In the former case, exact joint confidence regions are derived based on a natural pivot statistic. In the latter case, the joint confidence regions are only conservative. Computational aspects and the practical implementation of the confidence regions are discussed and illustrated using an example.     

Evaluating Multivariate GARCH Models in the Nordic Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

This article considers a variety of specification tests for multivariate GARCH models that are used for dynamic hedging in electricity markets. The test statistics include the robust conditional moments tests for sign-size bias along with the recently introduced copula tests for an appropriate dependence structure. We consider this effort worthwhile, since quite often the tests of multivariate GARCH models are omitted and the models become selected ad hoc depending on the results they generate. Hedging performance comparisons, in terms of unconditional and conditional ex-post variance portfolio reduction, are conducted.     

Order statistics and their concomitants from multivariate normal mean–variance mixture distributions with application to Swiss Markets Data

In this article, by considering a multivariate normal mean–variance mixture distribution, we derive the exact joint distribution of linear combinations of order statistics and their concomitants. From this general result, we then deduce the exact marginal and conditional distributions of order statistics and their concomitants arising from this distribution. We finally illustrate the usefulness of these results by using a Swiss markets dataset.     

Concomitants of order statistics from multivariate elliptical distributions

In this paper, by considering a 2n-dimensional elliptically contoured random vector (X^T,Y^T)^T=(X₁,…,X_n,Y₁,…,Y_n)^T, we derive the exact joint distribution of linear combinations of concomitants of order statistics arising from X. Specifically, we establish a mixture representation for the distribution of the rth concomitant order statistic, and also for the joint distribution of the rth order statistic and its concomitant. We show that these distributions are indeed mixtures of multivariate unified skew-elliptical distributions. The two most important special cases of multivariate normal and multivariate t distributions are then discussed in detail. Finally, an application of the established results in an inferential problem is outlined.     

On Quadratic Forms of Multivariate t Distribution with Applications

This note mainly aims to illustrate that some quadratic problems are robust in a sense with respect to the probabilistic distributions involved. The secondary moments of the quadratic forms of a multivariate t distribution are calculated. Then, the resulting formulae are applied to the quadratic problems of quadratic sufficiency and quadratic prediction. It is shown by revisiting the two problems that the same conclusions hold when the multivariate normal distribution is replaced with a multivariate t distribution.     

On the impact of contaminations in graphical Gaussian models

This paper analyzes the impact of some kinds of contaminant on model selection in graphical Gaussian models. We investigate four different kinds of contaminants, in order to consider the effect of gross errors, model deviations, and model misspecification. The aim of the work is to assess against which kinds of contaminant a model selection procedure for graphical Gaussian models has a more robust behavior. The analysis is based on simulated data. The simulation study shows that relatively few contaminated observations in even just one of the variables can have a significant impact on correct model selection, especially when the contaminated variable is a node in a separating set of the graph.     

On the Performance of Sequential Regression Multiple Imputation Methods with Non Normal Error Distributions

Sequential regression multiple imputation has emerged as a popular approach for handling incomplete data with complex features. In this approach, imputations for each missing variable are produced based on a regression model using other variables as predictors in a cyclic manner. Normality assumption is frequently imposed for the error distributions in the conditional regression models for continuous variables, despite that it rarely holds in real scenarios. We use a simulation study to investigate the performance of several sequential regression imputation methods when the error distribution is flat or heavy tailed. The methods evaluated include the sequential normal imputation and its several extensions which adjust for non normal error terms. The results show that all methods perform well for estimating the marginal mean and proportion, as well as the regression coefficient when the error distribution is flat or moderately heavy tailed. When the error distribution is strongly heavy tailed, all methods retain their good performances for the mean and the adjusted methods have robust performances for the proportion; but all methods can have poor performances for the regression coefficient because they cannot accommodate the extreme values well. We caution against the mechanical use of sequential regression imputation without model checking and diagnostics.     

A Distribution-free Multivariate Change-point Model for Statistical Process Control

This article develops a new distribution-free multivariate procedure for statistical process control based on minimal spanning tree (MST), which integrates a multivariate two-sample goodness-of-fit (GOF) test based on MST and change-point model. Simulation results show that our proposed procedure is quite robust to nonnormally distributed data, and moreover, it is efficient in detecting process shifts, especially moderate to large shifts, which is one of the main drawbacks of most distribution-free procedures in the literature. The proposed procedure is particularly useful in start-up situations. Comparison results and a real data example show that our proposed procedure has great potential for application.     

Robust Detection of Multiple Outliers in Grouped Multivariate Data

Many methods have been developed for detecting multiple outliers in a single multivariate sample, but very few for the case where there may be groups in the data. We propose a method of simultaneously determining groups (as in cluster analysis) and detecting outliers, which are points that are distant from every group. Our method is an adaptation of the BACON algorithm proposed by Billor, Hadi and Velleman for the robust detection of multiple outliers in a single group of multivariate data. There are two versions of our method, depending on whether or not the groups can be assumed to have equal covariance matrices. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated by its application to two real data sets and further shown by a simulation study for different sample sizes and dimensions for 2 and 3 groups, with and without planted outliers in the data. When the number of groups is not known in advance, the algorithm could be used as a robust method of cluster analysis, by running it for various numbers of groups and choosing the best solution.     

Concomitants of multivariate order statistics from multivariate elliptical distributions

ABSTRACT

In this article, we consider a (k + 1)n-dimensional elliptically contoured random vector (X^T₁, X₂^T, …, X^T_k, Z^T)^T = (X₁₁, …, X_1n, …, X_k1, …, X_kn, Z₁, …, Z_n)^T and derive the distribution of concomitant of multivariate order statistics arising from X₁, X₂, …, X_k. Specially, we derive a mixture representation for concomitant of bivariate order statistics. The joint distribution of the concomitant of bivariate order statistics is also obtained. Finally, the usefulness of our result is illustrated by a real-life data.     

A Multivariate Extension of Inverse Gaussian Distribution Derived from Inverse Relationship

Abstract

We propose a new multivariate extension of the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from a certain multivariate inverse relationship. First we define a multivariate extension of the inverse relationship between two sets of multivariate distributions, then define a reduced inverse relationship between two multivariate distributions. We derive the multivariate continuous distribution that has the reduced multivariate inverse relationship with a multivariate normal distribution and call it a multivariate inverse Gaussian distribution. This distribution is also characterized as the distribution of the location of a multivariate Brownian motion at some stopping time. The marginal distribution in one direction is the inverse Gaussian distribution, and the conditional distribution in the space perpendicular to this direction is a multivariate normal distribution. Mean, variance, and higher order cumulants are derived from the multivariate inverse relationship with a multivariate normal distribution. Other properties such as reproductivity and infinite divisibility are also given.