Adaptive quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of GARCH models with Student’s t likelihood

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes an adaptive quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) when forecasting the volatility of financial data with the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. When the distribution of volatility data is unspecified or heavy-tailed, we worked out adaptive QMLE based on data by using the scale parameter η_f to identify the discrepancy between wrongly specified innovation density and the true innovation density. With only a few assumptions, this adaptive approach is consistent and asymptotically normal. Moreover, it gains better efficiency under the condition that innovation error is heavy-tailed. Finally, simulation studies and an application show its advantage.     

Adaptive methods for sequential importance sampling with application to state space models

In this paper we discuss new adaptive proposal strategies for sequential Monte Carlo algorithms—also known as particle filters—relying on criteria evaluating the quality of the proposed particles. The choice of the proposal distribution is a major concern and can dramatically influence the quality of the estimates. Thus, we show how the long-used coefficient of variation (suggested by Kong et al. in J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89(278–288):590–599, 1994) of the weights can be used for estimating the chi-square distance between the target and instrumental distributions of the auxiliary particle filter. As a by-product of this analysis we obtain an auxiliary adjustment multiplier weight type for which this chi-square distance is minimal. Moreover, we establish an empirical estimate of linear complexity of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the involved distributions. Guided by these results, we discuss adaptive designing of the particle filter proposal distribution and illustrate the methods on a numerical example. This work was partly supported by the National Research Agency (ANR) under the program “ANR-05-BLAN-0299”.     

Adaptive evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithm for optimization with applications to sensor placement problems

In this paper, we present an adaptive evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithm (AEMC), which combines a tree-based predictive model with an evolutionary Monte Carlo sampling procedure for the purpose of global optimization. Our development is motivated by sensor placement applications in engineering, which requires optimizing certain complicated “black-box” objective function. The proposed method is able to enhance the optimization efficiency and effectiveness as compared to a few alternative strategies. AEMC falls into the category of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and is the first adaptive MCMC algorithm that simulates multiple Markov chains in parallel. A theorem about the ergodicity property of the AEMC algorithm is stated and proven. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method by applying it to a sensor placement problem in a manufacturing process, as well as to a standard Griewank test function.     

Adaptive Procedures for the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney Test: Seven Decades of Advances

The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test has dominated non parametric analyses in behavioral sciences for the past seven decades. Its widespread use masks the fact that there exist simple “adaptive” procedures which use data-dependent statistical decision rules to select an optimal non parametric test. This paper discusses key adaptive approaches for testing differences in locations in two-sample environments. Our Monte Carlo analysis shows that adaptive procedures often perform substantially better than t-tests, even with moderately sized samples (80 observations). We illustrate adaptive approaches using data from Gneezy and Smorodinsky (2006 Gneezy, U., Smorodinsky, R. (2006). All-pay auctions: an experimental study. J. Economic Behav. Organizat. 61(2): 255275.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and offer a Stata package to researchers interested in taking advantage of these techniques.     

Statistische Analyse ausgewählter Schätzer im kontemporär korrelierten Regressionsmodell mit prädeterminiertem verzögerten Regressor und autokorrelierten Fehlern

Under a weaker assumption of independency apartial analysis of single equations is possiblewithout the specification of a simultaneous equation model. In the extended simple regression model with the weaker independency assumption the OLS-estimator turns out to bequite robust, even in extreme variations, whereas the GLS-estimator shows agreat sensitivity with regard to the modification of the independency. A Monte Carlo study confirms the results concerning the asymptotic bias and indicates a higher variance for the GLS- than for the OLS-estimator. In small samples the standard deviation of the OLS-estimator is smaller than the deviation of a consistent instrumental variables estimator which asymptotic efficiency loss compared to the efficient GLS-estimator in the stochastically independent regression is small as long as the regressor has a high autocorrelation.     

Über die asymptotische verteilung des periodogramms stationärer gaussscher zufälliger folgen

For stationary Gaussian random sequences it is estimated the rate of convergence to the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram. An asymptotic expansio for the distribution function of the periodogram is given as well.     

Niveaudurchagangszeiten zur charakterisierung sequentieller schätzverfahren

Let θ be a parameter of a homogenous additive stochastic process. In order to get an unbiased and efficient estimator for a function h(v) one has often to use sequential procedures. In this paper we consider processes of the socalled exponential class. We study level crossing times, which characterize certain sequential estimations. It is shown that the family of level crossing times for an increasing sequence of levels is also a process of the exponential class. The density function of the one-dimensional probability distributions of this new process is given Examples and applications conclude the paper.     

Schätzungen in Stochastischen Differenzen-und Differentialgleiehungssystemen 2

Some ways of Studentizing the parametric c-sample tests (c≧2) for location are examined and their asymptotic properties established. A way of Studentizing the c-sample Puni test based on the ranks of the observations is proposed. The resulting test is shown to be asymptotically valid and consistent for a reasonable class of alternatives     

Mixture Models and the Krätzel Integral Transform

Continuous mixture Weibull models arise in many areas of sciences such as reliability studies, communications theory, etc. Due to its wide applicability, we introduce a class of continuous mixture Weibull models which is a combination of Weibull and generalized gamma distributions. Some characteristics of the distribution are obtained. It is seen that Krätzel integral enters into the model naturally, and then the model can be called as a Krätzel density. Applications of the density function related to fading channels and ultrasonic backscatter signals modeling are discussed. A real data analysis is given to illustrate the use of this distribution.     

Zur adaptiven bestimmung fler optimalen strategieparameter in stationären Lagerhaitnngsmodellen

In this paper a special class of experimental design problems is looked up which occurusing the family of shrunken least squares estimators. Basing on compromise oriterin a reference to classical problems of experimental design for least squaros estimators is given. Optimal designs for compromise criteria have some robustness properties W.r.t. variatin of asumed prior knowledge about response surface.     

Maximum-likelihood-schätzungen für parameter in homogenen markovschen ketten

A class of homogeneous MARKOV chains with arbitrary intial distributions is considered, which in general contains also the class treated by BILLINGSLEY [2]. The existence of strongly consistent and asymptotically normal maximum-likelihood estimates for unknown parameters is shown. Also the case of a random sample size is treated.     

Über das asymptotische verhalten von bayesschen und maximum-likelihood-schätzungen

The paper deals with the asymptotic equivalence of the maximum-likelihood-estimator with sums of independent and identically distributed random variables for a family of distribution functions, the density of which may vanish depending on the parameter. Further the asymptotic equivalence of the maximum-likelihood-estimator with BAYES estimators is shown.     

Bewertung von sheätzungen bei einem linearen modell auf der grundlage des fiduzialkonzepts

Usingf fiducial inference the quality of estimations is investigated for a linear model under the conditionj that information about the vector to be estimated is derived from a small sample. By application of that model to the deduction of atmospheric temperature profiles the obtained results are illustrated numerically.     

Zur abschätzung von lösungen linearer integralgleichungen mit hilfe der monte-carlo-methode

Let X₁, X₂, … be i.i.d.r.v. and write (X₁+…X_n?A_n)/B_n?F_n, where B_n >0.A_nER₁, n≥1. It is known that solely one–sided asymptotic assumptions imposed on F_n imply F_n0. In the present note we show that stronger one–sided assumptions lead even to the existence of EX₁ ³ so that the BERRY-ESSEEN inequalities hold true.