Simultaneous estimation of Cronbach’s alpha coefficients

The simultaneous estimation of Cronbachs alpha coefficients from q populations under the compound symmetry assumption is considered. In a multi-sample scenario, it is suspected that all the Cronbachs alpha coefficients are identical. Consequently, the inclusion of non-sample information (NSI) on the homogeneity of Cronbachs alpha coefficients in the estimation process may improve precision. We propose improved estimators based on the linear shrinkage, preliminary test, and the Steins type shrinkage strategies, to incorporate available NSI into the estimation. Their asymptotic properties are derived and discussed using the concepts of bias and risk. Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate the performance of the estimators.     

EM-based maximum likelihood parameter estimation for multivariate generalized hyperbolic distributions with fixed λ

Generalized Hyperbolic distribution (Barndorff-Nielsen 1977) is a variance-mean mixture of a normal distribution with the Generalized Inverse Gaussian distribution. Recently subclasses of these distributions (e.g., the hyperbolic distribution and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution) have been applied to construct stochastic processes in turbulence and particularly in finance, where multidimensional problems are of special interest. Parameter estimation for these distributions based on an i.i.d. sample is a difficult task even for a specified one-dimensional subclass (subclass being uniquely defined by ) and relies on numerical methods. For the hyperbolic subclass ( = 1), computer program hyp (Blæsild and Sørensen 1992) estimates parameters via ML when the dimensionality is less than or equal to three. To the best of the author's knowledge, no successful attempts have been made to fit any given subclass when the dimensionality is greater than three. This article proposes a simple EM-based (Dempster, Laird and Rubin 1977) ML estimation procedure to estimate parameters of the distribution when the subclass is known regardless of the dimensionality. Our method relies on the ability to numerically evaluate modified Bessel functions of the third kind and their logarithms, which is made possible by currently available software. The method is applied to fit the five dimensional Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution to a series of returns on foreign exchange rates.     

Simultaneous estimation of several CDF’s: homogeneity constraint

Let {x_ij(1 ? j ? n_i)|i = 1, 2, …, k} be k independent samples of size n_j from respective distributions of functions F_j(x)(1 ? j ? k). A classical statistical problem is to test whether these k samples came from a common distribution function, F(x) whose form may or may not be known. In this paper, we consider the complementary problem of estimating the distribution functions suspected to be homogeneous in order to improve the basic estimator known as “empirical distribution function” (edf), in an asymptotic setup. Accordingly, we consider four additional estimators, namely, the restricted estimator (RE), the preliminary test estimator (PTE), the shrinkage estimator (SE), and the positive rule shrinkage estimator (PRSE) and study their characteristic properties based on the mean squared error (MSE) and relative risk efficiency (RRE) with tables and graphs. We observed that for k ? 4, the positive rule SE performs uniformly better than both shrinkage and the unrestricted estimator, while PTEs works reasonably well for k < 4.     

Bayesian estimation of quantile distributions

Use of Bayesian modelling and analysis has become commonplace in many disciplines (finance, genetics and image analysis, for example). Many complex data sets are collected which do not readily admit standard distributions, and often comprise skew and kurtotic data. Such data is well-modelled by the very flexibly-shaped distributions of the quantile distribution family, whose members are defined by the inverse of their cumulative distribution functions and rarely have analytical likelihood functions defined. Without explicit likelihood functions, Bayesian methodologies such as Gibbs sampling cannot be applied to parameter estimation for this valuable class of distributions without resorting to numerical inversion. Approximate Bayesian computation provides an alternative approach requiring only a sampling scheme for the distribution of interest, enabling easier use of quantile distributions under the Bayesian framework. Parameter estimates for simulated and experimental data are presented.     

Properties of robust m-estimators for poisson and negative binomial data ∗

We investigate robust M-estimators of location and over-dispersion for independent and identically distributed samples from Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB)distributions. We focus on asymptotic and small-sample efficiencies, outlier-induced biases, and biases caused by model mis-specification. This is important information for assessing the practical utility of the estimation method. Our results demonstrate that resonably efficient estimation of location and over-dispersion parameters for count data is possible with samples sizes as small as n=25. The sensitivity of these stimators, especially when the amount of over-dispersion is small. We aslo conclude that serious biases result when using robust Poisson M-estimation with NB data. The biases are less serious when using robust NB M-estimation with Poisson data.     

Influence diagnostics for Grubbs’s model with asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions

Grubbs’s model (Grubbs, Encycl Stat Sci 3:42–549, 1983) is used for comparing several measuring devices, and it is common to assume that the random terms have a normal (or symmetric) distribution. In this paper, we discuss the extension of this model to the class of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. Our results provide a useful generalization of the symmetric Grubbs’s model (Osorio et al., Comput Stat Data Anal, 53:1249–1263, 2009) and the asymmetric skew-normal model (Montenegro et al., Stat Pap 51:701–715, 2010). We discuss the EM algorithm for parameter estimation and the local influence method (Cook, J Royal Stat Soc Ser B, 48:133–169, 1986) for assessing the robustness of these parameter estimates under some usual perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated with a numerical example.     

A generalization of Turnbull’s estimator for nonparametric estimation of the conditional survival function with interval-censored data

Simple nonparametric estimates of the conditional distribution of a response variable given a covariate are often useful for data exploration purposes or to help with the specification or validation of a parametric or semi-parametric regression model. In this paper we propose such an estimator in the case where the response variable is interval-censored and the covariate is continuous. Our approach consists in adding weights that depend on the covariate value in the self-consistency equation proposed by Turnbull (J R Stat Soc Ser B 38:290–295, 1976), which results in an estimator that is no more difficult to implement than Turnbull’s estimator itself. We show the convergence of our algorithm and that our estimator reduces to the generalized Kaplan–Meier estimator (Beran, Nonparametric regression with randomly censored survival data, 1981) when the data are either complete or right-censored. We demonstrate by simulation that the estimator, bootstrap variance estimation and bandwidth selection (by rule of thumb or cross-validation) all perform well in finite samples. We illustrate the method by applying it to a dataset from a study on the incidence of HIV in a group of female sex workers from Kinshasa.     

Reliability of stress–strength model for exponentiated Pareto distributions

In this paper, the reliability of a system is discussed when the strength of the system and the stress imposed on it are independent, non-identical exponentiated Pareto distributed random variables. Different point estimations and interval estimations are proposed. The point estimators obtained are maximum likelihood, uniformly minimum variance unbiased and Bayesian estimators. The interval estimations obtained are approximate, exact, bootstrap-p and bootstrap-t confidence intervals and Bayesian credible interval. Different methods and the corresponding confidence intervals are compared using Monte-carlo simulations.     

Efficiencies of some two–sample location tests for a broad class of distributions

Efficiencies of variety of two–sample tests are examomed for a broad class of distributions. Two new test statistics are introduced. and their potential use as part of an adaptive procedure discussed. Recommendations are made as to the utility of the various test statistics when the underlying distribution is unknown.     

Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions for classifying three-way data

Matrix-variate distributions represent a natural way for modeling random matrices. Realizations from random matrices are generated by the simultaneous observation of variables in different situations or locations, and are commonly arranged in three-way data structures. Among the matrix-variate distributions, the matrix normal density plays the same pivotal role as the multivariate normal distribution in the family of multivariate distributions. In this work we define and explore finite mixtures of matrix normals. An EM algorithm for the model estimation is developed and some useful properties are demonstrated. We finally show that the proposed mixture model can be a powerful tool for classifying three-way data both in supervised and unsupervised problems. A simulation study and some real examples are presented.     

An improved method of estimation for the parameters of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

The Birnbaum–Saunders (BS) distribution is a positively skewed distribution, frequently used for analysing lifetime data. In this paper, we propose a simple method of estimation for the parameters of the two-parameter BS distribution by making use of some key properties of the distribution. Compared with the maximum likelihood estimators and the modified moment estimators, the proposed method has smaller bias, but having the same mean square errors as these two estimators. We also discuss some methods of construction of confidence intervals. The performance of the estimators is then assessed by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the method of estimation developed here.     

Adaptive quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of GARCH models with Student’s t likelihood

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes an adaptive quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) when forecasting the volatility of financial data with the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. When the distribution of volatility data is unspecified or heavy-tailed, we worked out adaptive QMLE based on data by using the scale parameter η_f to identify the discrepancy between wrongly specified innovation density and the true innovation density. With only a few assumptions, this adaptive approach is consistent and asymptotically normal. Moreover, it gains better efficiency under the condition that innovation error is heavy-tailed. Finally, simulation studies and an application show its advantage.     

Comparison of estimation methods for the Marshall–Olkin extended Lindley distribution

The aim of this paper is to compare the parameters' estimations of the Marshall–Olkin extended Lindley distribution obtained by six estimation methods: maximum likelihood, ordinary least-squares, weighted least-squares, maximum product of spacings, Cramér–von Mises and Anderson–Darling. The bias, root mean-squared error, average absolute difference between the true and estimate distributions' functions and the maximum absolute difference between the true and estimate distributions' functions are used as comparison criteria. Although the maximum product of spacings method is not widely used, the simulation study concludes that it is highly competitive with the maximum likelihood method.     

Reliable error estimation for Sobol’ indices

In the field of sensitivity analysis, Sobol’ indices are sensitivity measures widely used to assess the importance of inputs of a model to its output. The estimation of these indices is often performed through Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo methods. A notable method is the replication procedure that estimates first-order indices at a reduced cost in terms of number of model evaluations. An inherent practical problem of this estimation is how to quantify the number of model evaluations needed to ensure that estimates satisfy a desired error tolerance. This article addresses this challenge by proposing a reliable error bound for first-order and total effect Sobol’ indices. Starting from the integral formula of the indices, the error bound is defined in terms of the discrete Walsh coefficients of the different integrands. We propose a sequential estimation procedure of Sobol’ indices using the error bound as a stopping criterion. The sequential procedure combines Sobol’ sequences with either Saltelli’s strategy to estimate both first-order and total effect indices, or the replication procedure to estimate only first-order indices.     

Comparisons of ten estimation methods for the parameters of Marshall–Olkin extended exponential distribution

The aim of this article is to compare via Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of the parameter estimates of the Marshall–Olkin extended exponential distribution obtained by ten estimation methods: maximum likelihood, modified moments, L-moments, maximum product of spacings, ordinary least-squares, weighted least-squares, percentile, Crámer–von-Mises, Anderson–Darling, and Right-tail Anderson–Darling. The bias, root mean-squared error, absolute and maximum absolute difference between the true and estimated distribution functions are used as criterion of comparison. The simulation study reveals that the L-moments and maximum products of spacings methods are highly competitive with the maximum likelihood method in small as well as in large-sized samples.     

Non‐parametric estimation for time-dependent AUC

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is one of the commonly used measure to evaluate or compare the predictive ability of markers to the disease status. Motivated by an angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) study, our objective is mainly to evaluate and compare the performance of several baseline plasma levels in the prediction of CAD-related vital status over time. Based on censored survival data, the non-parametric estimators are proposed for the time-dependent AUC. The limiting Gaussian processes of the estimators and the estimated asymptotic variance–covariance functions enable us to further construct confidence bands and develop testing procedures. Applications and finite sample properties of the proposed estimation methods and inference procedures are demonstrated through the CAD-related death data from the British Columbia Vital Statistics Agency and Monte Carlo simulations.     

Exact average coverage probabilities and confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for discrete distributions

For a confidence interval (L(X),U(X)) of a parameter θ in one-parameter discrete distributions, the coverage probability is a variable function of θ. The confidence coefficient is the infimum of the coverage probabilities, inf  _θ P _θ (θ∈(L(X),U(X))). Since we do not know which point in the parameter space the infimum coverage probability occurs at, the exact confidence coefficients are unknown. Beside confidence coefficients, evaluation of a confidence intervals can be based on the average coverage probability. Usually, the exact average probability is also unknown and it was approximated by taking the mean of the coverage probabilities at some randomly chosen points in the parameter space. In this article, methodologies for computing the exact average coverage probabilities as well as the exact confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for one-parameter discrete distributions are proposed. With these methodologies, both exact values can be derived.     

Properties of frequency distributions induced by general ‘up-and-down’ methods for estimating quantiles

In this paper a general definition of an up-and-down algorithm for estimating given quantiles of a binary response curve is suggested. Conditions are given for the distribution to which the design converges to be unimodal, for its mode to be ‘next’ to the quantile specified and for the distribution to be more concentrated around the mode. Results of Derman (1957) and of Durham and Flournoy (1994) are extended.     

Statistical estimation of quadratic Rényi entropy for a stationary m-dependent sequence

The Rényi entropy is a generalisation of the Shannon entropy and is widely used in mathematical statistics and applied sciences for quantifying the uncertainty in a probability distribution. We consider estimation of the quadratic Rényi entropy and related functionals for the marginal distribution of a stationary m-dependent sequence. The U-statistic estimators under study are based on the number of ε-close vector observations in the corresponding sample. A variety of asymptotic properties for these estimators are obtained (e.g. consistency, asymptotic normality, and Poisson convergence). The results can be used in diverse statistical and computer science problems whenever the conventional independence assumption is too strong (e.g. ε-keys in time series databases and distribution identification problems for dependent samples).     

Optimal Berry–Esseen bound for parameter estimation of SPDE with small noise

We investigate a rate of convergence on asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for parameter $\theta$ appearing in parabolic SPDEs of the form

$d{u}^{?}(t,x)=(A_0+\theta A_1)u^{?}(t,x)dt+?dW(t,x),$

where $A_0$ and$A_1$ are partial differential operators, $W$ is a cylindrical Brownian motion (CBM) and $?\downarrow 0$. We find an optimal Berry–Esseen bound for central limit theorem (CLT) of the MLE. It is proved by developing techniques based on combining Malliavin calculus and Stein’s method.