Quantile plots for mean effects in the presence of variance effects for 2k-p designs

In robust parameter design, variance effects and mean effects in a factorial experiment are modelled simultaneously. If variance effects are present in a model, correlations are induced among the naive estimators of the mean effects. A simple normal quantile plot of the mean effects may be misleading because the mean effects are no longer iid under the null hypothesis that they are zero. Adjusted quantiles are computed for the case when one variance effect is significant and examples of 8-run and 16-run fractional factorial designs are examined in detail. We find that the usual normal quantiles are similar to adjusted quantiles for all but the largest and smallest ordered effects for which they are conservative. Graphically, the qualitative difference between the two sets of quantiles is negligible (even in the presence of large variance effects) and we conclude that normal probability plots are robust in the presence of variance effects.     

Improved unbiased estimators in adaptive cluster sampling

Summary.  The usual design-unbiased estimators in adaptive cluster sampling are easy to compute but are not functions of the minimal sufficient statistic and hence can be improved. Improved unbiased estimators obtained by conditioning on sufficient statistics—not necessarily minimal—are described. First, estimators that are as easy to compute as the usual design-unbiased estimators are given. Estimators obtained by conditioning on the minimal sufficient statistic which are more difficult to compute are also discussed. Estimators are compared in examples.     

Design-based analysis of embedded experiments with applications in the Dutch Labour Force Survey

Summary.  Previous research has proposed a design-based analysis procedure for experiments that are embedded in complex sampling designs in which the ultimate sampling units of an on-going sample survey are randomized over different treatments according to completely randomized designs or randomized block designs. Design-based Wald and t -statistics are applied to test whether sample means that are observed under various survey implementations are significantly different. This approach is generalized to experimental designs in which clusters of sampling units are randomized over the different treatments. Furthermore, test statistics are derived to test differences between ratios of two sample estimates that are observed under alternative survey implementations. The methods are illustrated with a simulation study and real life applications of experiments that are embedded in the Dutch Labour Force Survey. The functionality of a software package that was developed to conduct these analyses is described.     

Prediction in Some Poisson Errors in Variables Models

Predictive distributions are developed and illustrated for prediction in some Poisson errors in variables models. Two different situations in which multiplicative treatment effects are appropriate are considered within the context of predicting counts of road accidents. Hierarchical prior structures are investigated, and numerical integration and Gibbs sampling routines are used to derive the predictive and posterior probabilities. Examples of analyses are provided with data from road accidents in Sweden.     

On Shifted Geometric INAR(1) Models Based on Geometric Counting Series

Two types of shifted geometric integer valued autoregressive models of order one (SGINAR(1)) are proposed. Both are based on the thinning operator generated by counting series of i.i.d. geometric random variables. Their correlation properties are derived and compared. Also, regression and conditional variance are considered. Nonparametric estimators of model parameters are obtained and their asymptotic characterizations are given. Finally, these two models are applied to a real-life data set and they are compared to some referent INAR(1) models.     

Circular Binary Block Second- and Higher-Order Neighbor Designs

Some new neighbor designs are presented here. Second-order neighbor designs for different configurations are generated in circular binary blocks. Third-order and fourth-order neighbor designs for some cases are also constructed. In all cases, circular blocks are well separated and these designs are obtained through initial block/s. At the end of the study, some models for analysis of these designs are also presented.     

Some New Bounds on the Probability of Extinction of a Galton–Watson Process with Numerical Comparisons

Some new upper and lower bounds for the extinction probability of a Galton–Watson process are presented. They are very easy to compute and can be used even if the offspring distribution has infinite variance. These new bounds are numerically compared to previously discussed bounds. Some definite guidelines are given concerning when these new bounds are preferable. Some open problems are also discussed.     

Bayesian estimation methods for contingency tables

Summary A method of inputting prior opinion in contingency tables is described. The method can be used to incorporate beliefs of independence or symmetry but extensions are straightforward. Logistic normal distributions that express such beliefs are used as priors of the cell probabilities and posterior estimates are derived. Empirical Bayes methods are also discussed and approximate posterior variances are provided. The methods are illustrated by a numerical example.     

Empitical bayes estimations for some distribution families

Some estimates of prior density based on orthogonal expansions are proposed for some family of conditional densities. Their related properties are studied. The associated empirical Bayes estimators are also proposed. Three examples are illustrated and some of its Monte Carlo results are also given.     

The Econometrics of Piecewise-Linear Budget Constraints

In this article maximum likelihood techniques for estimating consumer demand functions when budget constraints are piecewise linear are exposited and surveyed. Consumer demand functions are formally derived under such constraints, and it is shown that the functions are themselves nonlinear as a result. The econometric problems in estimating such functions are exposited, and the importance of the stochastic specification is stressed, in particular the specification of both unobserved heterogeneity of preferences and measurement error. Econometric issues in estimation and testing are discussed, and the results of the studies that have been conducted to date are surveyed.     

Adaptive web sampling in ecology

Adaptive sampling strategies for ecological and environmental studies are described in this paper. The motivations for adaptive sampling are discussed. Developments in this area over recent decades are reviewed. Adaptive cluster sampling and a number of its variations are described. The newer class of adaptive web sampling designs and their spatial sampling uses are discussed. Case studies in the use of adaptive sampling strategies with ecological populations are cited. The nature of optimal sampling strategies is described. Design-based and model-based approaches to inference with adaptive sampling strategies are summarized.     

Maximum likelihood analysis of masked series system lifetime data

Component lifetime parameters of a series system are estimated from system lifetimes and masked cause of failure observations. The time and cause of system failures are assumed to follow a competing risks model. The masking probabilities of the minimum random subsets are not subjected to the symmetry assumption. Sufficient regularity conditions are provided, justifying the maximum likelihood analysis. Maximum likelihood estimates of both the lifetime parameters and masking probabilities are generically computed via an EM algorithm. An appropriate set of asymptotically pivotal quantities are also derived. Such maximum likelihood based estimates are further refined by bootstrap. The developed techniques are illustrated by numerical examples of independent Weibull component lifetimes with distinct scale and shape parameters.     

Unconditional analogues of Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel tests

The Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel tests are a suite of tests that are usually defined as conditional tests, tests that assume all marginal totals are known before sighting the data. Here unconditional analogues of these tests are defined for the more usual situation when the marginal totals are not known before sighting the data.     

Updating Schemes, Correlation Structure, Blocking and Parameterization for the Gibbs Sampler

In this paper many convergence issues concerning the implementation of the Gibbs sampler are investigated. Exact computable rates of convergence for Gaussian target distributions are obtained. Different random and non-random updating strategies and blocking combinations are compared using the rates. The effect of dimensionality and correlation structure on the convergence rates are studied. Some examples are considered to demonstrate the results. For a Gaussian image analysis problem several updating strategies are described and compared. For problems in Bayesian linear models several possible parameterizations are analysed in terms of their convergence rates characterizing the optimal choice.     

Some aspects of decision making under uncertainty

Two discrete-time insurance models are studied in the framework of cost approach. The models being non-deterministic one deals with decision making under uncertainty. Three different situations are investigated: (1) underlying processes are stochastic however their probability distributions are given; (2) information concerning the distribution laws is incomplete; (3) nothing is known about the processes under consideration. Mathematical methods useful for establishing the (asymptotically) optimal control are demonstrated in each case. Algorithms for calculation of critical levels are proposed. Numerical results are presented as well.     

Estimation of parameters of a right truncated exponential distribution

The maximum likelihood, moment and mixture of the estimators are for samples from the right truncated exponential distribution. The estimators are compared empirically when all the parameters are unknown; their bias and mean square error are investigated with the help of numerical technique. We have shown that these estimators are asymptotically unbiased. At the end, we conclude that mixture estimators are better than the maximum likelihood and moment estimators.     

TEST FOR TREATMENT EFFECT BASED ON BINARY DATA WITH RANDOM SAMPLE SIZES

The problem of testing for treatment effect based on binary response data is considered, assuming that the sample size for each experimental unit and treatment combination is random. It is assumed that the sample size follows a distribution that belongs to a parametric family. The uniformly most powerful unbiased tests, which are equivalent to the likelihood ratio tests, are obtained when the probability of the sample size being zero is positive. For the situation where the sample sizes are always positive, the likelihood ratio tests are derived. These test procedures, which are unconditional on the random sample sizes, are useful even when the random sample sizes are not observed. Some examples are presented as illustration.     

Robust tests in nonlinear regression models

Robust tests for testing subhypotheses in nonlinear models are developed. These are drop-in-dispersion testing procedures, score-type and Wald-type testing procedures. The asymptotic properties and influence functions are obtained. Robust tests that perform well in the presence of heteroscedasticity are also developed. Simulation results are provided to illustrate these procedures.     

An autoregressive process with geometric α-laplace marginals

Geometric Laplace and geometric α-Laplace distributions are studied and certain limit properties are derived. An autoregressive process with geometric Laplace stationary marginal distribution is introduced and its properties are studied. These results are generalized to geometric α-Laplace case also and applications are discussed.     

Forecasting Vector ARMA Processes With Systematically Missing Observations

The following two predictors are compared for time series with systematically missing observations: (a) A time series model is fitted to the full series X_t , and forecasts are based on this model, (b) A time series model is fitted to the series with systematically missing observations Y _τ, and forecasts are based on the resulting model. If the data generation processes are known vector autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes, the first predictor is at least as efficient as the second one in a mean squared error sense. Conditions are given for the two predictors to be identical. If only the ARMA orders of the generation processes are known and the coefficients are estimated, or if the process orders and coefficients are estimated, the first predictor is again, in general, superior. There are, however, exceptions in which the second predictor, using seemingly less information, may be better. These results are discussed, using both asymptotic theory and small sample simulations. Some economic time series are used as illustrative examples.