THE ROLE OF CONSTITUENT TRUST IN CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

The purpose of this inquiry is to introduce a new variable intothe study of congressional elections—constituent trust.Constituent trust is defined as the level of confidence thatconstituents have in their elected representative. This analysissuggests a strategy for measuring constituent trust and developsa model that relates constituent trust directly and indirectlyto electoral support. By pooling cross-sectional data drawnfrom the University of Michigan's American National ElectionStudies (1978–84), I demonstrate that when constituenttrust is salient in voter cognitions, it has a significant directinfluence on electoral support and is a better predictor ofelectoral support than the incumbent's party identification.In addition to its direct effects, I show that constituent trustindirectly influences electoral support because of its causalrelationship to incumbent popularity.     

CAMPAIGN WAR CHESTS AS A BARRIER TO ENTRY IN CONGRESSIONAL RACES

Intimidate and overpower have been used in campaign lore to describe the effects of an incumbent's war chest on potential challengers. We argue that a war chest can deter challengers by signalling a credible commitment to mount a formidable campaign if entry occurs. Results from a trichotomous logit model indicate that a large war chest reduces both the probability of a contested race, and the quality of the challenger, where entry does occur. The effect on the efficiency of political markets is unclear, however, depending on the reasons why incumbents are able to raise large war chests.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF CAMPAIGN SPENDING: THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT JACKPOT

To raise money for their campaigns, political candidates auction a part of government wealth (the jackpot) to contributors. The larger the jackpot, the more candidates spend. Data on the gubernatorial races of 1978 and 1986 indicate that (1) for every dollar increase in the per capita jackpot, campaign spending rises by 0.0004 cents per voter, (2) balanced budget laws hinder the candidate's ability to raise money, (3) in states that give the governor more power over the budget (measured by a "Schlesinger" index) candidates raise more. The paper emphasizes that candidates willingly limit their spending to avoid indebtedness to contributors.     

STOCK OWNERSHIP AND CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE MUTUAL FUND REVOLUTION

We find that higher stock ownership rates are linked to an upward shift in the Republican share of the House popular vote since the late 1980s, consistent with theories that property interests affect voting. To proxy for discontinuous stock ownership rates, we use equity mutual fund costs, which have fallen, are negatively correlated with stock ownership rates and the Republican vote share in the long run, and help explain short‐run changes along with midterm elections, economic conditions, and presidential popularity. Findings suggest that the major parties’ shares of the House popular vote will fluctuate around 50% until other factors trigger a political realignment. (JEL D72, G11)     

SOCIOLOGY IN LEGIS-LAND: AN ETHNOGRAPHIC REPORT ON CONGRESSIONAL CULTURE*

This article argues that applied settings offer opportunities for analysis as well as employment. The theme is discussed in the context of a recent Congressional Fellowship. The first half of the article is a relatively straightforward report on Congressional staffers and their activities; it presents background information and identifies three areas of dynamic tension that seem to deserve greater attention in future research. Building on this information, the second half of the article provides examples of three types of substantive conclusions that deserve to be encouraged in future applied work. The first is the application, in a new context, of previously familiar concepts. An example in the present case is that, despite the many ways in which Congress is unique, it is also very much like a “typical” small town. The second is the questioning of common assumptions: despite the frequent criticisms of the so-called “rational model of decisionmaking,” for example, information and analysis play a significant role in policy outcomes, and knowledge is indeed power in many Congressional deliberations. The third is the recognition of broader challenges to the discipline; an example in the Congressional context is that social scientists, and sociologists in particular, have been extraordinarily ineffective in educating policy-makers on the nature of their work. Individually, each of these conclusions has implications for sociologists; collectively, they are meant to illustrate the importance of looking to applied settings as a source of insights, not just income.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND CONGRESSIONAL REPRESENTATION

The political views of citizens should be reflected in the governmentof a democratic society. Typically, citizens' views are expressedby their elected representatives. We used the Center for PoliticalStudies (CPS) 1986 National Election Study and a mail surveyof the U.S. House of Representatives to look at representationcollectively and dyadically. Collectively, we find some degreeof congruence between leaders and followers. However, thereare significant differences between them on half of the issueitems, with the leaders usually taking more extreme positionsthan the followers. We looked at leaders and followers dyadicallyin 33 districts using Achen's measures of representation. Wefound that the representatives' views are fairly close to thoseof their constituents, that representatives are efficient atpositioning themselves at the mean constituent position, andthat representatives respond to shifts in liberalism/ conservatismin their districts.     

SECTORAL COMPOSITION OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND MACROECONOMIC (IN)STABILITY

This article examines the quantitative interrelations between sectoral composition of public spending and equilibrium (in)determinacy in a two‐sector real business cycle model with positive productive externalities in investment. When government purchases of consumption and investment goods are set as constant fractions of their respective sectoral output, we show that the public‐consumption share plays no role in the model's local dynamics, and that a sufficiently high public‐investment share can stabilize the economy against endogenous belief‐driven cyclical fluctuations. When each type of government spending is postulated as a constant proportion of the economy's total output, we find that there exists a trade‐off between public consumption versus investment expenditures to yield saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness. (JEL E32, E62, O41)     

THE AMERICAN PUBLIC'S DEFENSE SPENDING PREFERENCES IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA

The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Unionhave produced marked changes in the defense spending preferencesof politically informed Americans, but relatively little changeamong the 60 percent or so of the public least informed aboutpolitics. The overall level of defense spending preferred bywell-informed citizens is significantly lower than during theCold War and significantly less related to ideology and isolationism.Willingness to use force in the international arena remainsthe primary determinant of defense spending preferences amongboth well-informed and relatively uninformed citizens. Willingnessto use force is in turn primarily related to basic social andcultural values, including trust in people and symbolic patriotism.     

THE INFLUENCE OF IDEOLOGY ON CONGRESSIONAL VOTING

This paper investigates the influence of ideology on congressional voting. The conceptual framework is based on the assumption that the congressman's objective is the maximization of the expected value of his office. A comparative analysis of voting on two proposed floor amendments to the U. S. House Administration Committee's 1974 Federal Election Campaign Act bill indicates that congressmen will ignore ideological considerations when the opportunity cost of not ignoring them is sufficiently high. Voting on one of these amendments is found to be consistent with shirking as broadly defined.     

THE EFFECT OF HOUSING WEALTH LOSSES ON SPENDING IN THE GREAT RECESSION

We use panel data on a complete inventory of household spending and assets to estimate the spending response to the sharp and largely unexpected declines in house values that occurred in the Great Recession. Our study complements the existing literature on this topic by relying exclusively on longitudinal micro data on both household wealth and expenditure. Our data span the period 2002–2012, allowing us to separate trends in spending from innovations in response to unexpected wealth changes. We find the marginal propensity to consume out of an unexpected housing wealth change to be 6 cents per dollar among older American households. (JEL D12, D14, E21)     

DESPERATE TIMES CALL FOR DESPERATE MEASURES: GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS IN HARD TIMES

We investigate state-dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the U.S. economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12%, the estimated cumulative multipliers are significantly larger during slack periods than nonslack periods and are above unity. We also examine the possibility of time-varying regimes of slackness and find that our empirical results are robust under a more flexible framework. Our estimation results point out the importance of the heterogenous effects of fiscal policy and shed light on the prospect of fiscal policy in response to economic shocks from the current COVID-19 pandemic. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62)     

THE USEFULNESS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING HOUSEHOLD SPENDING IN CANADA: A NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS

We examine the ability of the Conference Board of Canada's Index of Consumer Attitudes (ICA) to forecast Canadian household spending both nationally and regionally. Our results indicate that at the national level, the ICA is able to predict total personal consumption expenditures and various subcategories of consumer spending, even when controlling for other macroeconomic variables. We find, however, that the forecasting ability of the regional indices is somewhat weaker when compared to that of the national ICA. Overall, our results reconfirm that consumer confidence is a reliable predictor of household spending in Canada. (JEL C53 , E21 )     

ASYMMETRY IN THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING SHOCKS: CONTRASTING EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS

Using quarterly data for the United States, demand contraction exceeds expansion in the face of monetary and government spending shocks. Demand contraction in the face of government spending shocks, is absorbed in nominal wage and price deflation. The variability of government spending shocks decreases average wage and price inflation. In contrast, the upward flexibility of price appears in sharp contrast to its downward rigidity in the face of monetary shocks. Furthermore, output contraction is notably larger relative to expansion in the face of monetary shocks. Monetary variability accelerates average price inflation and decreases average output and real wage growth.     

WOMEN CANDIDATES IN THE NEWS: AN EXAMINATION OF GENDER DIFFERENCES IN U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

By covering male and female candidates differently, the newsmedia may influence the success of female candidates for publicoffice. A content analysis was conducted to assess potentiallyimportant differences in the newspaper coverage of a sampleof male and female U.S. Senate candidates in the elections of1982–86. The results of the study show that female candidates for the U.S. Senate are treated differently by the press.Female candidates receive less news coverage and the coveragethey do receive concentrates more on their viability and lesson their issue positions. Furthermore, female candidates' viabilitycoverage is more negative than that of their male counterparts.Given these gender differences in press treatment, we wouldexpect voters' recognition of male candidates to exceed thatof female candidates and we would also expect evaluations offemale candidates to be tied more closely to their perceivedviabil ity. Because female candidates are often considered noncompetitiveby the press, this attention to the horserace may lead votersto develop more negative evaluations of female candidates. Theseresults suggest that current patterns of press coverage mayserve as a critical obstacle for women running for the U.S.Senate.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CONGRESSIONAL TERM LIMITS

We examine the impact of a six-term tenure limit on members of the U.S. House of Representatives. The first part of this study develops a methodological framework for simulating the quantitative impact of term limits. The second part of this study uses this framework to estimate the effects of term limits on (i) the value of holding office, (ii) turnover, and (iii) the size of the Democratic majority in the House. Both steady-state and transition period effects are explored.