Religious differentials in infant and child mortality in Holland, 1855–1912

At least three kinds of hypothesis may be invoked to interpret religious differentials in mortality. They are (i) hypotheses that refer to characteristics, (ii) those that refer to lifestyle, and (iii) those that refer to the social isolation of minorities. This paper tests all three kinds of hypothesis using data on urban child mortality from The Hague just before and during the demographic transition. A hazard analysis suggests that economic and demographic characteristics do not account for much of the variation by religion. An analysis of seasonal mortality suggests that some of the variation may be explained by differences in lifestyle. The third kind of hypothesis is presented here for the first time. We suggest that the social isolation of small religious groups lowered their exposure to certain kinds of infectious disease. We use a simulation study to show that this hypothesis could account for part of the variation.     

Adolescent social isolation and premature mortality in a Swedish birth cohort

Research shows consistently that social ties are important for longevity, and they may be particularly important during adolescence. An absence of social ties, or social isolation, during adolescence may adversely affect long-term health and wellbeing. While prior research has examined associations between isolation from friends and long-term health, and having no siblings and mortality, no study (of which we are aware) considers jointly both the role of having no friends and no siblings, nor more generally with whom adolescents spend time, and the risk of premature mortality. This paper extends the literature by drawing on data from the Stockholm Birth Cohort Study to examine the association between different types of social isolation during adolescence (i.e., an absence of friends, siblings, and time with other adolescents) and the risk of premature mortality by midlife. Results suggest that having no siblings, being unliked at school, and spending (mostly) no time with other adolescents, increases the risk of premature mortality. The association between being unliked and premature mortality was attenuated by demographic and adolescent characteristics. Consistent with our expectations, net of a robust set of covariates, adolescents who had no siblings and mostly spent no time with other adolescents (i.e., isolates) were the group most vulnerable to premature mortality by midlife. However, this was only true for females.

     

Ethnic and religious differentials in Bulgarian mortality, 1993-98

We investigated ethnic/religious mortality differentials in Bulgaria during the 1990s. The analyses employed a unique longitudinal data-set covering the entire population of Bulgaria from the census of 1992 until 1998. The mortality of Roma is very high compared to all other ethnic/religious groups. The excess applies to nearly every cause of death examined and is not entirely explained by the adverse location of Roma on social and economic variables. For young men, Muslim mortality is substantially lower than that of non-Muslims when socio-economic differences are controlled. An analysis of causes of death suggests that lower consumption of alcohol may contribute to this 'Muslim paradox'. For older Turkish women, a significant mortality disadvantage remains after controls are imposed. Suicide mortality is lower for Muslims than for Christian groups of the same ethnicity. Consistent with deteriorating economic conditions over the study period, mortality was rising, particularly for women.     

Population and social structure in a Bedfordshire parish: The Cardington listing of inhabitants, 1782

Abstract This paper describes some of the main social and demographic characteristics of a Bedfordshire parish in the second half of the eighteenth century. It is based on an analysis of the 'Listing of Inhabitants' of Cardington in 1782, and on the use of the parish registers. The listing does not allow an analysis of the entire population of the parish. Its most serious deficiency is the failure to give sufficient detail for the upper social strata of the parish population, viz. the residents of 'farm tenements' and a small number of other properties likewise poorly documented. In the main, the data given in the article refer only to the residents of 'cottage tenements'. They represent the majority of the parish population, but omit the small group at the top of village society. For the 'cottage tenement' population a number of conclusions are drawn. Within this population there was an overall excess of females over males, but the excess was slight, and the number and proportion of males and females in each age-group balanced quite closely. 43-44% of the population of known age were less than 15 years old, and almost half the population were aged between 16 and 60 years. An analysis of marital status tentatively suggests that adult celibacy was rare. The average number of residents per 'cottage' household was only a little higher than the average size of family, confirming that only a small proportion of households contained more than one family. Household and family size may have been larger among craftsmen than labourers, with the households and families of the former containing more resident offspring than those of the latter. About one in every three marriages was either a broken marriage or are-marriage. A reconstitution of certain 'cottage tenement' families tentatively suggests an average of over five baptisms per family. Yet there were only two resident offspring per family in 1782. The difference may be explained by the high level of infant and child mortality, with one-third of all baptised children failing to reach the age of 15 years, and by the high degree of population mobility, albeit over short distances.     

Wearing the Garment of Widowhood: Variations in Time Since Spousal Loss Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults

We examine how the passage of time since spousal loss varies by social and demographic characteristics, using data from the University of Alabama at Birmingham Study of Aging. In multivariate analyses, African American race, female sex, lower income, and higher risk of social isolation had significant and independent associations with variation in time since spousal loss. African American women were at highest risk for long-term widowhood. Accurate characterizations of widowhood among community-dwelling older adults must consider variation in the length of time individuals are living as widowed persons and socioeconomic concomitants of long-term widowhood.     

Does regional variation affect ecological mortality research? An examination of mortality, income inequality and health infrastructure in the Mississippi Delta

Mortality research has often focused on individual-level, socioeconomic, and demographic factors indicating health outcomes. Consistent with a recent trend in the public health field, this research examines mortality at the aggregate, contextual level. Based on Wilkinson’s relative income hypothesis, specifically being manifest through an underinvestment in social goods including health infrastructure, the focus of this study is a regional examination in the effects of income inequality on mortality at the county level. Health infrastructure is included as a mediating variable in the relationship between income inequality and mortality, relating back to Wilkinson’s work. Unlike previous research, regional differences in this relationship are examined to identify variation at the county level in health outcomes. The Mississippi Delta is an adequate test bed to examine the relationship between these variables based on its socioeconomic, demographic, and high inequality characteristics. It is hypothesized that Delta-designated counties within the three-state Delta region distinguish a significant positive relationship between income inequality and mortality, that this relationship is stronger than in non-Delta classified counties, and that health infrastructure significantly mediates the relationship between income inequality and mortality.     

Fertility decline in Germany: An econometric appraisal

Summary A re-analysis of Knodel's data provides some new results for the fertility decline in Germany and a new approach to testing hypotheses about the demographic transition. Two formulations of transition theory are compared: one emphasizing the importance of changing social and economic structure for fertility decline; the other, the changing relationships between fertility and its determinants over time. To evaluate these formulations, multivariate time series cross-sectional models are developed. The statistical models permit the estimation of relationships both cross-sectionally and over time. As a consequence, the ability of the independent variables to explain cross-sectional as against temporal differences is evaluated. Industrialization, urbanization, religious composition, migration, infant mortality and marriage patterns satisfactorily explain the fertility decline once regional differences have been taken into account. Persisting characteristics of regional units account for much of the unexplained variance. Industrialization is the main explanatory variable of fertility decline in Germany. In the period considered, its impact on fertility increased substantially.     

Apostles and Zionists: The influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or `Spirit-type' churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

Some factors associated with Urban-Rural fertility differentials in Mexico

Abstract Warren C. Robinson and others have presented strong evidence that a substantial portion of the variation in urban-rural fertility differentials is attributable to variations in infant and child mortality when the child-woman ratio is the index of fertility. This paper focuses on the contributions of several additional factors in accounting for variations in urban-rural fertility differentials. 1960 census data for 23 urban and rural areas in Mexico are investigated by means of correlation analysis. City growth and literacy differentials are found to be significantly related to the size of the urban-rural fertility (child-woman ratio) differential, but their effect appears to be indirect, and brought about by their association with urban-rural differentials in the sex ratio at the reproductive ages, age at marriage, and the percentage married. The latter three factors are positively related to the size of the urban-rural fertility differential. City growth is inversely related to the magnitude of the fertility differential. This analysis suggests that changes in (urban) population composition may favour higher as well as lower urban fertility and thus affect the size of the urban-rural fertility differential. If this is true, it would appear that urbanization does not necessarily lead to lower total fertility (at least in its early stages), but may lead to the modification of certain demographic characteristics which formerly favoured lower urban fertility. The long-run effects of urbanization are more difficult to assess, but it is suggested that migrants to urban areas may require several generations to manifest lower fertility. This would constitute an additional factor favouring higher urban fertility. The possible contribution of changing mortality conditions is also considered.     

Paradox lost: Explaining the hispanic adult mortality advantage

We tested three competing hypotheses regarding the adult "Hispanic mortality paradox": data artifact, migration, and cultural or social buffering effects. On the basis of a series of parametric hazard models estimated on nine years of mortality follow-up data, our results suggest that the "Hispanic" mortality advantage is a feature found only among foreign-born Mexicans and foreign-born Hispanics other than Cubans or Puerto Ricans. Our analysis suggests that the foreign-born Mexican advantage can be attributed to return migration, or the "salmon-bias" effect. However, we were unable to account for the mortality advantage observed among other foreign-born Hispanics.     

Apostles and Zionists: the influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or "Spirit-type" churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

Perceiving Mortality Decline

In the demographic literature on developing countries, studies of mortality perceptions are conspicuous by their absence. Perhaps it has been assumed that when mortality declines, the decline will be quickly recognized by individuals and will then influence their demographic decisions. The possibility of substantial lags and biases in risk perception, which cause individual perceptions to diverge from the changing empirical realities, has not been much considered. Yet studies in cognitive and social psychology indicate that individual mortality perceptions are likely to be diffuse and may well be biased upward in relation to the declining empirical risks. If individuals are poorly equipped to recognize mortality decline, so too may be social groups—social learning will not necessarily correct individual misapprehensions. This note discusses the perceptual limitations that may delay recognition of mortality decline and examines the implications for demographic behavior in three areas: modern health care, fertility control, and children's schooling.     

Comparative Assessment of Methods for Measuring Consensual Poverty: Sort Card Versus CAPI

Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, the purpose of this study is twofold. First, the study identifies coping strategies used by older adults. Second, the study examines the impact of older adults’ chosen coping strategies on mortality reduction. The study focuses specifically on differences in the use of religious and secular coping strategies among this population. The findings suggest that although coping strategies differ between those who self-classify as religious and those who self-classify as nonreligious, for both groups social approaches to coping (e.g., attending church and volunteering) are more likely than individual approaches (e.g., praying or active/passive coping) to reduce the risk of mortality. The most efficacious coping strategies, however, are those matched to characteristics of the individual.     

Neonatal mortality and stillbirths in early twentieth century Derbyshire,England

Neonatal mortality and stillbirths are recognised to be subject to similar influences, but survival after a successful live birth is usually considered in isolation of foetal wastage. Moreover, individual-level data on age-specific influences and causes of death in a historical context are rare. This paper uses an unusual data set to compare the influences on neonatal mortality and stillbirths in early twentieth century Derbyshire, England. Multivariate hazard and logistic analyses are performed to examine the relative roles of various social, environmental, and demographic factors. The influences on and causal structures of neonatal mortality and stillbirths emerge as broadly similar, with previous reproductive history linked to a considerable amount of variation. The clustering of endogenous deaths was much greater than the clustering of exogenous and post-neonatal deaths, probably reflecting the cause-of-death structure and the relatively healthy social and environmental position of early twentieth century Derbyshire.     

Education of adult children and mortality of their elderly parents in Taiwan

In societies in which families are highly integrated, the education of family members may be linked to survival. Such may be the case in Taiwan, where there are large gaps in levels of education across generations and high levels of resource transfers between family members. This study employs 14 years of longitudinal data from Taiwan to examine the combined effects of the education of older adults and their adult children on the mortality outcomes of older adults. We use nested Gompertz hazard models to evaluate the importance of the education of an older adult and his or her highest-educated child after controlling for socioeconomic, demographic, and health characteristics at baseline. To gain further insight, we fit additional models based on the sample stratified by whether older adults report serious diseases at baseline. The results indicate that the educational levels of both older adults and children are associated with older adult mortality, but children's education appears more important when we examine the mortality of only those older adults who already report a serious disease. This finding suggests that there may be different roles for education in the onset versus the progression of a health problem that may lead to death.     

The Age Difference Between Spouses: Variations among Developing Countries

Sub-national and cross-national variations in the age difference between spouses are investigated with data from the World Fertility Survey relating to 29 developing countries. Substantial variation within and between countries is evident. Analysis suggests that the relative age of prospective spouses is a factor taken into account in the marriage market. Observed variation in the age difference, within and between countries, cannot be explained as the simple by-product of the random matching of independently determined distributions of men's and women's ages at marriage. Certain age differences are avoided, others chosen more frequently. Preferred age differences appear to differ in the societies studied, however, and this variation can be directly interpreted in terms of two sets of factors: kinship structure and women's roles. The analysis also suggests that demographic determinants of the age difference, in particular age constraints on the pool of possible matches, are of less importance in explaining societal variations than are social structural factors.     

Preliminary evidence regarding the hypothesis that the sex ratio at sexual maturity may affect longevity in men

In human populations, variation in mate availability has been linked to various biological and social outcomes, but the possible effect of mate availability on health or survival has not been studied. Unbalanced sex ratios are a concern in many parts of the world, and their implications for the health and survival of the constituent individuals warrant careful investigation. We indexed mate availability with contextual sex ratios and investigated the hypothesis that the sex ratio at sexual maturity might be associated with long-term survival for men. Using two unique data sets of 7,683,462 and 4,183 men who were followed for more than 50 years, we found that men who reached their sexual maturity in an environment with higher sex ratios (i. e., higher proportions ofreproductively ready men) appeared to suffer higher long-term mortality risks than those in an environment with lower sex ratios. Mate availability at sexual maturity may be linked via several biological and social mechanisms to long-term survival in men.     

Fertility Differences between the Majority and Minority Nationality Groups in China

There is an extensive sociological and demographic literature about why racial and ethnic minority groups in the U.S. have different levels of fertility, usually higher, than the majority white group. The four major hypotheses are the subcultural hypothesis, the social characteristics hypothesis, the minority group status hypothesis, and the economic hypothesis. In this paper we focus on fertility patterns of the majority Han and the larger minority groups in China and examine the degree to which the above hypotheses may be useful in articulating the reasons why the fertility of the Han majority differs from that of the minorities. We first present a brief historical review of the genesis and development of the majority and minority nationalities in China. We next present short vignettes of each of the eight minority nationalities we will be examining. We then review the Western literature on fertility differentials between majority and minority nationalities, and summarize the theoretical expectations behind the four prominent hypotheses to be tested. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, and draw out the implications of our work.     

HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys

The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. We utilize recent rounds of the demographic and health surveys that link an individual woman’s fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allow us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that although HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility, local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on noninfected women’s fertility.     

Nondrinker Mortality Risk in the United States

The literature has shown that people who do not drink alcohol are at greater risk for death than light to moderate drinkers, yet the reasons for this remain largely unexplained. We examine whether variation in people’s reasons for nondrinking explains the increased mortality. Our data come from the 1988–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File (N = 41,076 individuals age 21 and above, of whom 10,421 died over the follow-up period). The results indicate that nondrinkers include several different groups that have unique mortality risks. Among abstainers and light drinkers the risk of mortality is the same as light drinkers for a subgroup who report that they do not drink because of their family upbringing, and moral/religious reasons. In contrast, the risk of mortality is higher than light drinkers for former drinkers who cite health problems or who report problematic drinking behaviors. Our findings address a notable gap in the literature and may inform social policies to reduce or prevent alcohol abuse, increase health, and lengthen life.