A new estimate of Ukrainian population losses during the crises of the 1930s and 1940s

The standardized rate of third births declined by over 50 percent in Austria between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s. The third birth was also postponed gradually over the years until 1991-92, after which the tempo of childbearing suddenly increased in response to a change in the parental-leave policy. This new policy inadvertently favoured women who had their second or subsequent child shortly after their previous one. We cannot find any indication that the general decline in third births can be seen as a consequence of women's increasing independence from their husbands at the stage in life we study. Furthermore, it still seems to be more difficult to combine motherhood and labour-force participation in Austria than in Sweden, which is a leader in reducing this incompatibility. These developments reflect the tension between advancing gender equality and the dominance of traditional norms in Austria.     

New midyear age-sex-color-specific estimates of the U.S. population for the 1940s and 1950s: including a revision of coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses

This paper describes new midyear (July 1) estimates of the "true" population of the United States by age, sex, and color (white, nonwhite) for the 1940s and 1950s. It also presents the corresponding implied coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses. The new population estimates are calculated by combining the most recent figures on the 1960 population with estimates of the demographic components of change for the 1950s and 1940s in an iterative reverse cohort-component projection algorithm. Among the principal findings of the new estimates are: (a) existing midyear estimates of the "true" population in the 1950s are 450,000 to 500,000 too high; (b) existing age-specific estimates for the 1950s tend to underestimate the population at the older ages (55 years and over) and overestimate the population in the young and middle adult years (15 to 54 years); (c) estimates of the "true" population in the 1940s were too low except for nonwhites at ages 65 and over; (d) existing estimates of percentage net undercount and underenumeration for the 1950 and 1940 censuses tend to be too high, substantially so for nonwhites in the 1940 Census; and (e) nonwhites were more completely enumerated in 1940 than in 1950. Thus, in addition to being methodologically and temporally consistent with post-1960 estimates, the new population estimates described here imply some substantial revisions in demographic, social, and economic statistics for the two decades prior to 1960.     

A new study of China's population control during the past ten years

This paper summarizes the control of population in China in the past 10 years and the changes that are occurring. Recently, an increase in the number of family members has directly influenced socioeconomic status by increasing family income and improving living conditions. Rural families have no incentives to control the number of children born. The cyclic effect of the 1962-73 baby boom is also causing a recent surge in population. China has studied these problems and has taken the following measures: new family planning systems have been established; population has been controlled macroscopically and flexibility is allowed at an individual level; governmental family planning organizations have been set up and financed; family planning education has been increased; family planning services have been enforced; incentives and restrictions have been implemented. China must work as a whole to enact and enforce these policies. Families must show restraint in childbearing. The only way for this to be accomplished is by decreasing the socioeconomic incentives to have children. Finally, reforms should be in tune with changing situations.     

Economic estimate and comparative study of the population of Wuxi in 1980]

In 1980, an economic survey was conducted in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China, in which the members of the general population were asked various questions related to their past and current employment status. The purpose of this survey was to provide information in the following areas: average life expectancy of Wuxi residents (72.32 years); ratio of average number of years of employment; difference between the number of years of employment among Wuxi residents compared with Hong Kong residents (including relevant factors); expected number of years of employment for a life expectancy of 72.32 years; total goods and services consumed in an average lifetime vs. Expected income over an average lifetime; age at which Wuxi residents begin to produce more than they consume; and the age of highest economic productivity. Survey and statistical methods and interpretation of data are explained at length. The information provided by this economic survey should prove useful for economic planning, as well as providing baseline figures for future comparative studies.     

常态化与正规化：社会转型期流动人口管理的新构想

伴随着工业化进程的加速,流动人口规模以超常规的态势增长。随着社会条件的复杂,流动人口所引发的社会问题也越来越复杂化,流动人口的城市择业、社会生活、子代教育和社会保障等问题日趋严峻,鉴于此,对于流动人口的管理首先在理念上要推陈出新,政府及各职能部门、社区等需要通力配合,流动人口管理才能步入常态化、正规化和合理化。     

1940年代末江南地区人口与家庭的微观分析——以保甲户籍册资料为中心

本文通过留存至今的一份抗战后江南地区的保甲户籍册及上世纪50年代初的土改户赋册中所蕴含的人口及家庭信息,对这一时间段内该地区的人口与家庭进行了微观分析,表明各地区之间存在如下共同点：未成年及青壮年人口占有较高的比例,呈现出一种增长型的年龄结构;总体性别比很低;简单家庭是最主要的家庭类型,主干家庭是次主要的家庭类型：男女都普遍结婚。但在职业及教育程度上各地区之间有显著差异。     

A new estimate of permanent sterility by age: sterility defined as the inability to conceive

The proportion of couples permanently sterile beyond a certain age is an important component of the reproductive process. Unless medical assistance is used, this age is the upper bound of the fecund period. Most estimates of sterility by age of the woman have been derived from natural fertility populations, in which the number of births and the timing of the last birth (of the complete reproductive history) were not controlled by the couples. Because data on these populations do not include pregnancies not ending in a live birth, the sterility estimates apply to the proportion of couples unable to conceive and to have a live birth. For this reason, it is useful to have an estimate of sterility based on the risk of conceiving, independently of the fate of the pregnancy. Using this new estimate, sterility increases with age much more slowly than with most previous estimates.     

A new technique to estimate infant mortality with an application for El Salvador and Colombia

The paper presents new estimates of infant mortality for Colombia and El Salvador for the years 1950--1970. These estimates are obtained by using a technique which improves on Brass's method in that it suppresses the assumption of constant mortality and introduces instead assumptions about linear and nonlinear changes in mortality risks affecting various cohorts of individuals.     

A simplified robust estimate of the birth rate

It is shown that other estimates of the birthrate can be derived from Coale's robust birthrate estimate. Coale's estimate is nearly equal to the birthrate obtainable from reverse survival or reverse projection of the proportion of a population under age 15 (both sexes), or C(15), using a life table corresponding to l5. As a sequel to this, a birth rate estimate was obtained that does not require reference to stable population models and results in computational economy and ease. Taking advantage of the strong linear relation between l5 and 15L0, a simple robust estimate was derived of the birthrate that does not depend upon model stable populations or model life tables. After presenting these methods, their use is illustrated with data from several Asian and African countries. Coale (1981) suggested using the observed C(15) for both sexes and l5 to locate an appropriate stable population from a family of stable models to represent the observed population and to use its birthrate as an estimate of the population under study. The estimate of l5 can be obtained by any of the indirect methods like the Brass method. Coale observed that such methods yield birthrates that are not much affected even when the populations are not stable. He also suggested an adjustment for the stable birthrate for nonstability. To obtain the birthrate, one needs the denominator, namely, the number of persons that lived. This is obtained by using the rate of increase, r, which differs for a stable and a nonstable or observed population. Various methods can be used to obtain the time reference of the mortality estimate, l5, by providing years prior to the survey or census to which the l5 estimate is applicable.     

小农经济结构与女性家庭角色——基于20世纪30年代微观数据的探析

本文利用1938-1940年间的满铁实地调查数据,讨论了中国华东与华北地区经济结构的不同特色对女性在小农经济家庭中的经济角色差异的影响。通过构建计量模型,控制住可能影响家庭经济福利水平的家庭特征变量及县区特征变量,检验结果显示,20世纪30年代,华北地区女性在家庭中作为男性的辅助劳动力,女性劳动力占有比例对家庭经济福利水平毫无影响;而华东地区女性主要从事副业生产,对家庭经济福利水平具有显著的正向影响。也就是说,华东与华北地区的不同的小农经济结构导致女性劳动力在小农家庭中扮演着不同的经济角色。     

A brief analysis of population pressure on agricultural production under the new situation]

China's agricultural industry is currently undergoing a gradual transition from its previously restrictive self-sufficient natural economy to a more commercialized system of production. This transition has already effected an increase in China's agricultural productivity. Moreover, efforts toward planned population growth have made significant headway in China's rural areas. With all these changes, the large, unskilled Chinese farm family is currently facing mounting economic troubles as the new system of commercialized farming now rewards the technically skilled and economically efficient farmer. The problems facing many large farm families in China's north central province of Shaanxi are discussed, as well as the deficiencies of the system of farmland apportionment which awards farmland according to family size, instead of family capital resources and productivity.     

A machine learning analysis of drought and rural population change on the North American Great Plains since the 1970s

Population and Environment - Machine learning techniques have to date not been widely used in population-environment research, but represent a promising tool for identifying relationships between...     

Growth of U.S. population, 1940–1971, in the light of an interactive two-sex model

Since it is logically impossible to hold constant both male and female age-specific fertility rates, the intrinsic growth rates or the net reproduction rates for males and females, based on that assumption, are internally inconsistent. The interactive two-sex model presented in this paper holds constant a set of bivariate age-specific fertility rates by age of men and women and allows the male and female age-specific fertility rates to adjust themselves to achieve stability. The model gives the same intrinsic growth rate for both sexes and generates intrinsic age-specific fertility rates and intrinsic net reproduction rates for males and females which are consistent and can operate simultaneously on a population. The model is applied to the U.S. data for 1940–1971, and the results are compared with those obtained from the one-sex models.     

人口容量与适度人口的热力学解释

对于地球的人口容量问题,人口学者曾做过许多尝试,并提出了不同版本的人口容量阙值。本文在借鉴前人的研究成果基础上,把生物圈的能量流动分为外部能量流动和内部能量流动,并在回顾人类社会发展历程中,提出人类社会的发展源自内能流能量的增加和人类对内能流能量使用效率的提高。进而又得出了人口容量和适度人口的热力学模型,及其热力学含义。     

As the population clock winds down: Indicative effects of population ageing in Australia’s States and Territories

Among the more profound features of population ageing is its regionality. This regionality is particularly marked in Australia, where the timing and speed of ageing are occurring at substantially different rates by state and territory. The shift to natural decline is expected to create many social, economic and political predicaments where it is first experienced. In Australia, Tasmania will be the first to enter natural decline, followed soon thereafter by South Australia, but not for several years by the youngest states and territories. These diverging demographic forces will have many implications for the complex mixture of federal, state and local government that currently adjudicates over policy-making and implementation, especially concerning the collection of taxes, the distribution of the goods and services of the Welfare State, and a large element of fiscal redistribution. This paper provides an overview of demographic characteristics and dynamics by region, and examines their projected effects on three socio-economic indicators: educational demand, the labour market, and demand for Age Pensions. The changing demography will have both beneficial and adverse affects, and unless the profound regionality is soon understood and engaged with, currently older and younger states are likely to encounter not only diverging demographic forces, but also diverging fortunes.