Structuring and simulating negotiation: An approach and an example

Negotiation is a complex and dynamic decision process during which parties perceptions, preferences, and roles may change. Modelling such a process requires flexible and powerful tools. The use of rule-based formalism is therefore expanded from its traditional expert system type technique, to structuring and restructuring non-trivial processes like negotiation. Using rules we build a model of a negotiation problem. Some rules are used to infer positions and reactions of the parties, other rules are used to modify problem representation when such a modification is necessary. We illustrate the approach with a contract negotiation case between two large companies. We also show how this approach could help one party to realize that negotiations are being carried on against their assumptions and expectations.     

Information management support for international negotiations

This paper examines the information processing requirements that surround the international negotiations process. General problem-solving models and generic task taxonomies are explored to provide insight into this process, a process that can be characterized as iterative options analysis. The paper also identifies a set of existing and emerging information technologies that can support the negotiation process, technologies that range from electronic mail to group decision support systems. The premise of the paper is that cost-effective information technology can support many important negotiation tasks and that existing technology has been vastly under-exploited by negotiators and their staffs. A program for introducing and evaluating information technology is also proposed.     

Decision Making in Evidence‐Based Practice: Science and Art

In this article the author reviews problems in the implementation of evidence‐based practices (EBP) and concludes that these derive not only from numerous practical concerns, but also from fundamental epistemological issues. These include an antiquated understanding of the scientific method, involving types of naive inductivism and rationalism. The central argument of this article is that recent developments in the field of naturalistic decision making provide a critical framework for understanding the problems in the implementation of EBP, as well as possible avenues for their resolution. Developments that are reviewed include the use of heuristics, decision trees, case‐based reasoning, as well as an example of a generalized model of expert decision making. Such models increasingly combine situational awareness with critical thinking and metacognitive capacities. They promise to more effectively focus the application of rational and empirical problem‐solving methods, such as EBP, on the most complex problems.     

Group decision and negotiation support in evolving,nonshared information contexts

Based on evolutionary systems design (ESD), group decision and negotiation support in evolving, nonshared information contexts is discussed. A non-shared information context — one without full information sharing — is associated with what has been loosely called a noncooperative context in the group decision and negotiation support systems (GDNSS) literature. Without full information sharing, we have a game with incomplete information that, in general, is evolving. The paper discusses how the GDNSS, MEDIATOR, supports evolution of the group problem representation — a process of consensus seeking (through information sharing, here partial) subject to problem adaptation and restructuring within which compromise is possible.     

The implications of irreversibility in emergency response decisions

The irreversibility effect implies that a decision maker who neglects the prospect of receiving more complete information at later stages of a sequential decision problem will in certain cases too easily take an irreversible decision, as he ignores the existence of a positive option value in favour of reversible decisions. This option value represents the decision maker's flexibility to adapt subsequent decisions to the obtained information. In this paper we show that the economic models dealing with irreversibility as used in environmental and capital investment decision making can be extended to emergency response decisions that produce important irreversible effects. In particular, we concentrate on the decision whether or not to evacuate an industrial area threatened by a possible nuclear accident. We show in a simple two-period evacuation decision model that non-optimal conclusions may be drawn when evacuation is regarded as a `now or never decision'. The robustness of these results is verified by means of a sensitivity analysis of the various model parameters. The importance of `options thinking' in this decision context is illustrated in an example.     

Good Intercultural Practices in Social Services Projects

ABSTRACT

This article reflects part of the results obtained from a wider research project aimed at the elaboration of a “Map of Good Intercultural Practices” in several areas of social intervention in Andalusia, Spain. It also reports the results obtained from the analysis portion related to the participating projects within the social services. Intercultural assessment was conducted at the level of institutional intervention through a 32-item questionnaire that was sent to 139 intercultural project-leading institutions measuring intercultural sensitivity. A definition of the fundamental concepts of “interculturality” and “good practice” is given to support the foundations of “good intercultural practice” (GIP). Such definitions help in the design and validation of a GIP Scale that was used in the analysis of 60 social services projects with an intercultural component. The results obtained underline the relevance of aspects such as intercultural empathy and show significant differences between the social services and other intervention sectors. Future research is proposed that studies GIP scale in other intervention sectors such as the private and public sector. Also, the transferability of the instruments and methodology used makes it possible that the research presented in this article is conducted in other geographical areas.     

Decision analysis for practical negotiation application

The family of decision analysis techniques can be applied effectively to support practical negotiators in international settings. These techniques are most appropriate in support of the prenegotiation phase, when parties are diagnosing the situation, assessing their own plans and strategies, and evaluating likely reactions and outcomes. The paper identifies how these approaches have and can be used to assist negotiation practitioners, offers a rationale for the application of decision analytic approaches in terms of the particular analytical requirements of the prenegotiation period, suggests how these process-oriented tools can be integrated with substantive tools, and discusses ways in which these tools can be presented and delivered to practitioners in a practical and confidence-building manner.     

Negotiation support: Development of representations and reasoning

The general importance of negotiations and bargaining as means of decision making has given rise to considerable research within two broad paradigms. The behavioral paradigm has attempted to discover rationality in specific situations in order to generalize. The formal paradigm has assumed a general rationality which could be applied to specific problems. This strict dichotomy imposes unnecessary restrictions on the use of formal approaches to structure, represent, and support negotiators. Logic-based approaches, such as rule-based formalism, make it possible to blend unique and specific aspects of a problem, with general reasoning mechanisms and rationality postulates. This paper introduces rule-based formalism and discusses its advantages and disadvantages. It attempts to present its ability to represent complex decision processes and to reason using formal structures. The approach is illustrated with several simple examples.     

Examining Organizational Functioning Through the Lens of Complexity Theory Using System Dynamics Modeling

ABSTRACT

The methodologies associated with complexity theory might serve as an adjunct to some of our more traditional behavioral social science research methods. While the latter has a well-established history in social work, the approaches related to complexity theory are just now gaining a foothold. One such approach is system dynamics modeling. This article will describe the application of system dynamics modeling to a well-known early intervention program. The manner in which it complements traditional research approaches will be discussed, and its unique contribution to understanding the organizational aspects of complexity theory will be highlighted.     

Are game theoretic concepts suitable negotiation support tools? From Nash equilibrium refinements toward a cognitive concept of rationality

If game theory is to be used as a negotiation support tool, it should be able to provide unambiguous recommendations for a target to aim at and for actions to reach this target. This need cannot be satisfied with the Nash equilibrium concept, based on the standard instrumental concept of rationality. These equilibria, as is well known, are generally multiple in a game. The concept of substantive or instrumental rationality has proved to be so pregnant, however, that researchers, instead of re-evaluating its use in game theory, have simply tried to design concepts related to the Nash equilibrium, but with the property of being unique in a game — i.e., they have devised ways ofselecting among Nash equilibria. These concepts have been labeledrefined Nash equilibria. The purpose of this paper is to show the following.

1. The different types of refined Nash equilibria, based on the principle of backward induction, can lead to severe contradictions within the framework itself. This makes these concepts utterly unsatisfactory and calls for a new appraisal of the reasoning process of the players.
2. The degree of confidence in the principle of backward induction depends upon the evaluation of potential deviations with respect to the extended Nash equilibrium concept used and upon the possible interpretations of such deviations by the different players. Our goal is to show that the nature of these possible interpretations reinforces the argument that a serious conceptual reappraisal is necessary.
3. Some form of forward induction should then become the real yardstick of rationality, extending Simonianprocedural rationality towards the concept ofcognitive rationality. This could open the way to a renewed game theoretic approach to negotiation support systems. Such a research program, which would be a revision of the basic game theoretic concepts, is dealt with in the end of the paper.

     

Evaluating Time Streams of Income: Discounting What?

For decisions whose consequences accrue over time, there are several possible techniques to compute total utility. One is to discount utilities of future consequences at some appropriate rate. The second is to discount per-period certainty equivalents. And the third is to compute net present values (NPVs) of various possible streams and to then apply the utility function to these net present values. We find that the best approach is to first compute NPVs of various possible income streams and then take the utility of such NPVs. We show the drawbacks of other alternative models of evaluating income streams. The article discusses the advantages of the power and logarithmic forms in the modeling of time preference. These are the only forms for which utility of income and utility of consumption are strategically equivalent. Further, these forms permit the flexibility in the choice of a time period (e.g., monthly or quarterly) without modifying the utility function, thus simplifying analysis.     

Understanding and Representing Human Services Knowledge

Expert systems-computerized decision consultants-offer potential for human service professionals to share expertise and reduce variability in decision making. The development of such systems is particularly important in the field of child protection because of high staff turnover and complex decision making requirements. This paper presents a method for knowledge acquisition in building a prototype expert system in child welfare. Patterns of decision making are traced and translated into computer-based rules. Solutions to research problems in developing expert systems are presented. Continued refinement of research practice in this area can lead to the development of usable expert systems for the social services.     

Discriminating among probability weighting functions using adaptive design optimization

Probability weighting functions relate objective probabilities and their subjective weights, and play a central role in modeling choices under risk within cumulative prospect theory. While several different parametric forms have been proposed, their qualitative similarities make it challenging to discriminate among them empirically. In this paper, we use both simulation and choice experiments to investigate the extent to which different parametric forms of the probability weighting function can be discriminated using adaptive design optimization, a computer-based methodology that identifies and exploits model differences for the purpose of model discrimination. The simulation experiments show that the correct (data-generating) form can be conclusively discriminated from its competitors. The results of an empirical experiment reveal heterogeneity between participants in terms of the functional form, with two models (Prelec-2, Linear-in-Log-Odds) emerging as the most common best-fitting models. The findings shed light on assumptions underlying these models.     

Technology Could Be Harmful Rather Than Beneficial: An Empirical Investigation of Caseworkers’ Perceptions Using a Knowledge Management Framework

ABSTRACT. The reasons for the ineffectiveness of some technology-mediated initiatives in human service organizations are not well understood. This study conceptualized a knowledge management system with the following features: a process orientation that focuses on how caseworkers integrate knowledge into decision making and a sociotechnical system perspective. A mediation research model was developed and was tested empirically using structural equation modeling with a sample of 4,554 caseworkers. Results supported the mediation effect of knowledge integration (KI) as an important factor in organizational effectiveness (OE). The technological domain had a small positive effect on KI and a direct negative effect on OE. The sociocultural and interorganizational domains appeared to be better predictors of KI and OE. Future recommendations include adopting a systematic approach in coordinating knowledge management practices based on a caseworker's KI ability.     

Representing the negotiation process with a rule-based formalism

The objective of this paper is to introduce a flexible approach to the structuring of negotiations. The process of negotiations with its intricacies is discussed, and drawbacks of quantitative methods are analyzed. The decomposition of the negotiation process into a certain hierarchical structure is presented. This structure is represented with and/or trees used for knowledge representation in artificial intelligence. The definitions of flexibility and reactions to the opponent's moves are introduced with the help of a rule-based formalism. The implications of these definitions for the analysis of the negotiation process are presented. The approach is illustrated with a set of hypothetical examples.     

Proposing a Model of Service Delivery for Victims/Survivors of Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) from Ethnic Minority Communities in Australia

A systematic literature review on child sexual abuse (CSA) and ethnic minority communities was conducted to help address the current gap in knowledge in the area. This article reports on one explored theme – aspects of service delivery models identified as effective, as the basis for developing a model for Australia. The findings indicate two key aspects of effective service delivery: (i) models should be ecologically grounded to the specific cultural context, and (ii) individuals should be placed at the center of intervention so their needs and experiences are not ‘boxed in’ by their ethnicity. The model proposed for the Australian context is guided by these two key principles. Service delivery models are important because they help guide practice and standardize treatment and support in the field. However, the model proposed here also values flexibility, cultural competency, a strengths-based approach, an empowerment-based approach, intersectionality, and a feminist framework. These model elements are particularly relevant in relation to the family cohesion and support that collectivist cultures offer; whether, to what extent, and how they act as a risk or protective factor, or even both, is best determined by the victim/survivor. The utility of the model for practitioners and clients requires rigorous evaluation.     

Analysis,modeling, and the management of international negotiations

Negotiation management, a framework for practical implementation of computer-based support to negotiators and their staffs, is defined and described in this paper. In particular, three integrated tools and their underlying methodologies, are illustrated. The collaborative use of computers and information techniques in complex negotiation is framed in terms of a discovery and design paradigm in which parties engage in dialogue, learn, and develop trust that can support the negotiation itself through a process of joint analysis and modeling.