A new confidence interval in errors-in-variables model with known error variance

This paper considers constructing a new confidence interval for the slope parameter in the structural errors-in-variables model with known error variance associated with the regressors. Existing confidence intervals are so severely affected by Gleser–Hwang effect that they are subject to have poor empirical coverage probabilities and unsatisfactory lengths. Moreover, these problems get worse with decreasing reliability ratio which also result in more frequent absence of some existing intervals. To ease these issues, this paper presents a fiducial generalized confidence interval which maintains the correct asymptotic coverage. Simulation results show that this fiducial interval is slightly conservative while often having average length comparable or shorter than the other methods. Finally, we illustrate these confidence intervals with two real data examples, and in the second example some existing intervals do not exist.     

Generalized confidence interval estimation for the mean of delta-lognormal distribution: an application to New Zealand trawl survey data

Highly skewed and non-negative data can often be modeled by the delta-lognormal distribution in fisheries research. However, the coverage probabilities of extant interval estimation procedures are less satisfactory in small sample sizes and highly skewed data. We propose a heuristic method of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of the delta-lognormal distribution. This heuristic method is an estimation based on asymptotic generalized pivotal quantity to construct generalized confidence interval for the mean of the delta-lognormal distribution. Simulation results show that the proposed interval estimation procedure yields satisfactory coverage probabilities, expected interval lengths and reasonable relative biases. Finally, the proposed method is employed in red cod densities data for a demonstration.     

A note on Stein's lemma for multivariate elliptical distributions

When two random variables are bivariate normally distributed Stein's original lemma allows to conveniently express the covariance of the first variable with a function of the second. Landsman and Neslehova (2008) extend this seminal result to the family of multivariate elliptical distributions. In this paper we use the technique of conditioning to provide a more elegant proof for their result. In doing so, we also present a new proof for the classical linear regression result that holds for the elliptical family.     

A Study of Expansions of Posterior Distributions

Johnson (1970 Johnson , R. ( 1970 ). Asymptotic expansions associated with posterior distributions . Ann. Math. Statist. 41 : 851 – 864 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) obtained expansions for marginal posterior distributions through Taylor expansions. Here, the posterior expansion is expressed in terms of the likelihood and the prior together with their derivatives. Recently, Weng (2010 Weng , R. C. ( 2010 ). A Bayesian Edgeworth expansion by Stein's Identity . Bayesian Anal. 5 ( 4 ): 741 – 764 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) used a version of Stein's identity to derive a Bayesian Edgeworth expansion, expressed by posterior moments. Since the pivots used in these two articles are the same, it is of interest to compare these two expansions.

We found that our O(t ^?1/2) term agrees with Johnson's arithmetically, but the O(t ^?1) term does not. The simulations confirmed this finding and revealed that our O(t ^?1) term gives better performance than Johnson's.     

A Class of Improved Estimators for the Scale Parameter of a Mixture Model of Exponential Distribution with Unknown Location

Under Stein's loss, a class of improved estimators for the scale parameter of a mixture of exponential distribution with unknown location is constructed. The method is analogous to Maruyama's (1998 Maruyama , Y. ( 1998 ). Minimax estimators of a normal variance . Metrika 48 : 209 – 214 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) construction for the variance of a normal distribution and also an extension of the result produced in Petropoulos and Kourouklis (2002 Petropoulos , C. , Kourouklis , S. ( 2002 ). A class of improved estimators for the scale parameter of an exponential distribution with unknown location . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 31 : 325 – 335 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Also, robustness properties are considered.     

Interval estimation for conformance proportions of multiple quality characteristics

A conformance proportion is an important and useful index to assess industrial quality improvement. Statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion are usually required not only to perform statistical significance tests, but also to provide useful information for determining practical significance. In this article, we propose approaches for constructing statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion of multiple quality characteristics. Under the assumption that the variables of interest are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, we develop an approach based on the concept of a fiducial generalized pivotal quantity (FGPQ). Without any distribution assumption on the variables, we apply some confidence interval construction methods for the conformance proportion by treating it as the probability of a success in a binomial distribution. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through detailed simulation studies. The results reveal that the simulated coverage probability (cp) for the FGPQ-based method is generally larger than the claimed value. On the other hand, one of the binomial distribution-based methods, that is, the standard method suggested in classical textbooks, appears to have smaller simulated cps than the nominal level. Two alternatives to the standard method are found to maintain their simulated cps sufficiently close to the claimed level, and hence their performances are judged to be satisfactory. In addition, three examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

On minimaxity of the normal precision matrix estimator of Krishnamoorthy and Gupta

We consider the orthogonally invariant estimation problem of the inverse of the scale matrix of Wishart distribution using Stein's loss (entropy loss). In this problem Krishnamoorthy and Gupta [2] Krishnamoorthy, K. and Gupta, A. K. (1989). Improved minimax estimation of a normal precision matrix. Canad. J. Statist., 17: 91–102. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] proposed an estimator and showed its good performance in a Monte Carlo simulation. They conjectured their estimator is minimax. Perron [3] Perron, F. (1997). On a conjecture of Krishnamoorthy and Gupta. J. Multivariate Anal., 62: 110–120.  [Google Scholar] proved its minimaxity for p?=?2. In this paper we prove it for p?=?3 by using a new method.     

On approximating distribution of the quadratic discriminant function

The quadratic discriminant function (QDF) with known parameters has been represented in terms of a weighted sum of independent noncentral chi-square variables. To approximate the density function of the QDF as m-dimensional exponential family, its moments in each order have been calculated. This is done using the recursive formula for the moments via the Stein's identity in the exponential family. We validate the performance of our method using simulation study and compare with other methods in the literature based on the real data. The finding results reveal better estimation of misclassification probabilities, and less computation time with our method.     

Extensions of Stein's Lemma for the Skew-Normal Distribution

When two random variables have a bivariate normal distribution, Stein's lemma (Stein, 1973 Stein , C. M. ( 1973 ). Estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution . Proc. Prague Symp. Asymptotic Statist. 345 – 381 . [Google Scholar] 1981 Stein , C. M. ( 1981 ). Estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution . Ann. Statist. 9 : 1135 – 1151 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), provides, under certain regularity conditions, an expression for the covariance of the first variable with a function of the second. An extension of the lemma due to Liu (1994 Liu , J. S. ( 1994 ). Siegel's formula via Stein's identities . Statist. Probab. Lett. 21 : 247 – 251 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) as well as to Stein himself establishes an analogous result for a vector of variables which has a multivariate normal distribution. The extension leads in turn to a generalization of Siegel's (1993 Siegel , A. F. ( 1993 ). A surprising covariance involving the minimum of multivariate normal variables . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 88 : 77 – 80 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) formula for the covariance of an arbitrary element of a multivariate normal vector with its minimum element. This article describes extensions to Stein's lemma for the case when the vector of random variables has a multivariate skew-normal distribution. The corollaries to the main result include an extension to Siegel's formula. This article was motivated originally by the issue of portfolio selection in finance. Under multivariate normality, the implication of Stein's lemma is that all rational investors will select a portfolio which lies on Markowitz's mean-variance efficient frontier. A consequence of the extension to Stein's lemma is that under multivariate skew-normality, rational investors will select a portfolio which lies on a single mean-variance-skewness efficient hyper-surface.     

Statistical inference about the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution by upper record values

Summary In this paper, we provide some pivotal quantities to test and establish confidence interval of the shape parameter on the basis of the firstn observed upper record values. Finally, we give some examples and the Monte Carlo simulation to assess the behaviors (including higher power and more shorter length of confidence interval) of these pivotal quantities for testing null hypotheses and establishing confidence interval concerning the shape parameter under the given significance level and the given confidence coefficient, respectively.     

On Hacking's fiducial theory of inference

Fisher's theory of fiducial inference is known to lead to mathematical inconsistencies. Hacking (1965) puts forward a new basis for fiducial inference. In this paper we have presented Hacking's theory retaining his original terminology but replacing his notation by more usual mathematical notation. His condition of irrelevance is derived in an explicit mathematical form, making it more comprehensible to statisticians. Further an example is constructed to show that Hacking's theory also leads to mathematical inconsistencies.     

Estimation of a common mean vector in bivariate meta-analysis under the FGM copula

We propose a bivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM) copula model for bivariate meta-analysis, and develop a maximum likelihood estimator for the common mean vector. With the aid of novel mathematical identities for the FGM copula, we derive the expression of the Fisher information matrix. We also derive an approximation formula for the Fisher information matrix, which is accurate and easy to compute. Based on the theory of independent but not identically distributed (i.n.i.d.) samples, we examine the asymptotic properties of the estimator. Simulation studies are given to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method, and a real data analysis is provided to illustrate the method.     

On the improved estimation of a function of the scale parameter of an exponential distribution based on doubly censored sample

In the present article, we have studied the estimation of entropy, that is, a function of scale parameter ln⁡σ of an exponential distribution based on doubly censored sample when the location parameter is restricted to positive real line. The estimation problem is studied under a general class of bowl-shaped non monotone location invariant loss functions. It is established that the best affine equivariant estimator (BAEE) is inadmissible by deriving an improved estimator. This estimator is non-smooth. Further, we have obtained a smooth improved estimator. A class of estimators is considered and sufficient conditions are derived under which these estimators improve upon the BAEE. In particular, using these results we have obtained the improved estimators for the squared error and the linex loss functions. Finally, we have compared the risk performance of the proposed estimators numerically. One data analysis has been performed for illustrative purposes.     

Confidence distributions applied to propagating uncertainty to inference based on estimating the local false discovery rate: A fiducial continuum from confidence sets to empirical Bayes set estimates as the number of comparisons increases

Empirical Bayes estimates of the local false discovery rate can reflect uncertainty about the estimated prior by supplementing their Bayesian posterior probabilities with confidence levels as posterior probabilities. This use of coherent fiducial inference with hierarchical models generates set estimators that propagate uncertainty to varying degrees. Some of the set estimates approach estimates from plug-in empirical Bayes methods for high numbers of comparisons and can come close to the usual confidence sets given a sufficiently low number of comparisons.     

Estimation of a multivariate normal covariance matrix under a certain structure

We consider the estimation of Σ of the p-dimensional normal distribution N_p (0, Σ) when Σ?=?θ₀ I_p ?+?θ₁ aa′, where a is an unknown p-dimensional normalized vector and θ₀?>?0, θ₁?≥?0 are also unknown. First, we derive the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimator. Second, we propose a new estimator, which dominates the REML estimator with respect to Stein's loss function. Finally, we carry out Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the magnitude of the new estimator's superiority.     

A Gaussian alternative to using improper confidence intervals

The problem posed by exact confidence intervals (CIs) which can be either all-inclusive or empty for a nonnegligible set of sample points is known to have no solution within CI theory. Confidence belts causing improper CIs can be modified by using margins of error from the renewed theory of errors initiated by J. W. Tukey—briefly described in the article—for which an extended Fraser's frequency interpretation is given. This approach is consistent with Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability, in which a probability and an error measure obey the same axioms, although the connotation of the two words is different. An algorithm capable of producing a margin of error for any parameter derived from the five parameters of the bivariate normal distribution is provided. Margins of error correcting Fieller's CIs for a ratio of means are obtained, as are margins of error replacing Jolicoeur's CIs for the slope of the major axis. Margins of error using Dempster's conditioning that can correct optimal, but improper, CIs for the noncentrality parameter of a noncentral chi-square distribution are also given.     

Reliability analysis of multicomponent stress–strength reliability from a bathtub-shaped distribution

In this paper, inference for a multicomponent stress–strength model is studied. When latent strength and stress random variables follow a bathtub-shaped distribution and the failure times are Type-II censored, the maximum likelihood estimate of the multicomponent stress–strength reliability (MSR) is established when there are common strength and stress parameters. Approximate confidence interval is also constructed by using the asymptotic distribution theory and delta method. Furthermore, another alternative generalized point and confidence interval estimators for the MSR are constructed based on pivotal quantities. Moreover, the likelihood and the pivotal quantities-based estimates for the MSR are also provided under unequal strength and stress parameter case. To compare the equivalence of the stress and strength parameters, the likelihood ratio test for hypothesis of interest is also provided. Finally, simulation studies and a real data example are given for illustration.     

Interval estimates for variance components

A new approach to inference on variance components is propounded. This approach not only gives a new justification for Fisher's fiducial, distribution for the “between classes” component, but also leads to a new distribution for the “within classes” component. This latter distribution is studied, and has some intuitively very reasonable properties. Numerical results are given.     

Inferences on a linear combination of K multivariate normal mean vectors

In this paper, the hypothesis testing and confidence region construction for a linear combination of mean vectors for K independent multivariate normal populations are considered. A new generalized pivotal quantity and a new generalized test variable are derived based on the concepts of generalized p-values and generalized confidence regions. When only two populations are considered, our results are equivalent to those proposed by Gamage et al. [Generalized p-values and confidence regions for the multivariate Behrens–Fisher problem and MANOVA, J. Multivariate Aanal. 88 (2004), pp. 117–189] in the bivariate case, which is also known as the bivariate Behrens–Fisher problem. However, in some higher dimension cases, these two results are quite different. The generalized confidence region is illustrated with two numerical examples and the merits of the proposed method are numerically compared with those of the existing methods with respect to their expected areas, coverage probabilities under different scenarios.     

Efficiency of lattice conditional independence models for multinormal samples with non-monotone missing data

For multivariate normal data with non-monotone (i.e. arbitrary) missing data patterns, lattice conditional independence (LCI) models determined by the observed data patterns can be used to obtain closed-form MLEs (Andersson and Perlman, 1991, 1993). In this paper, three procedures — LCI models, the EM algorithm, and the complete-data method — are compared by means of a Monte Carlo experiment. When the LCI model is accepted by the LR test, the LCI estimate is more efficient than those based on the EM algorithm and the complete-data method. When the LCI model is not accepted, the LCI estimate may lose efficiency but still may be more efficient than the EM estimate if the observed data is sparse. When the LCI model appears too restrictive, it may be possible to obtain a less restrictive LCI model by.discarding only a small portion of the incomplete observations. LCI models appear to be especially useful when the observed data is sparse, even in cases where the suitability of the LCI model is uncertain.