Weak approximations for quantile processes of stationary sequences

ABSTRACT By studying the deviations between uniform empirical and quantile processes (the so-called Bahadur-Kiefer representations) of a stationary sequence in properly weighted sup-norm metrics, we find a general approach to obtaining weighted results for uniform quantile processes of stationary sequences. Consequently we are able to obtain weak convergence for weighted uniform quantile processes of stationary mixing and associated sequences. Further, by studying the sup-norm distance of a general quantile process from its corresponding uniform quantile process, we find that information at the two end points of the uniform quantile process can be so utilized that this weighted sup-norm distance converges in probability to zero under the so-called Csörgõ-Révész conditions. This enables us to obtain weak convergence for weighted general quantile processes of stationary mixing and associated sequences.     

Moderate deviations for quantile regression processes

This paper mainly discusses the asymptotic properties of quantile regression processes. In view of the exponential tightness and convexity argument, we prove the quantile regression estimators satisfy the functional moderate deviation principle. This method can be extended to a fair range of different statistical estimation problems such as quantile regression estimators with bridge penalized functions.     

On quantile processes for m-dependent Rv's

We obtain strong and weak approximations for quantile processes for m-dependent random variables. We apply our results in the two-sample to obtain condidence bands for quantile plots and prove some CHERNOFF-SAVAGE theorems for m-dependent random variables     

Bayesian Semiparametric Modelling in Quantile Regression

Abstract. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric methodology for quantile regression modelling. In particular, working with parametric quantile regression functions, we develop Dirichlet process mixture models for the error distribution in an additive quantile regression formulation. The proposed non‐parametric prior probability models allow the shape of the error density to adapt to the data and thus provide more reliable predictive inference than models based on parametric error distributions. We consider extensions to quantile regression for data sets that include censored observations. Moreover, we employ dependent Dirichlet processes to develop quantile regression models that allow the error distribution to change non‐parametrically with the covariates. Posterior inference is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We assess and compare the performance of our models using both simulated and real data sets.     

Bootstrapping the renewal spacings processes

We define the generalized bootstrapped version of the empirical and quantile renewal spacing processes. We show that the asymptotic theory of the renewal spacings processes holds for the bootstrap version.     

Simultaneous confidence bands for growth incidence curves in weighted sup-norm metrics

ABSTRACT

The so-called growth incidence curve (GIC) is a popular way to evaluate the distributional pattern of economic growth and pro-poorness of growth in development economics. The log-transformation of the the GIC is related to the sum of empirical quantile processes which allows for constructions of simultaneous confidence bands for the GIC. However, standard constructions of these bands tend to be too wide at the extreme points 0 and 1 because the estimator of the quantile function can be very volatile at the extreme points. In order to construct simultaneous confidence bands which are narrower at the ends, we consider the convergence of quantile processes with weight functions. In particular, we investigate the asymptotic convergence under specific weighted sup-norm metrics and compare different kinds of qualified weight functions. This implies simultaneous confidence bands that are narrower at the boundaries 0 and 1. We show in simulations that these bands have a more regular shape. Finally, we evaluate real data from Uganda with the improved confidence bands.     

Efficient Estimation of an Additive Quantile Regression Model

Abstract. In this paper, two non‐parametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a more viable alternative to existing kernel‐based approaches. The second estimator involves sequential fitting by univariate local polynomial quantile regressions for each additive component with the other additive components replaced by the corresponding estimates from the first estimator. The purpose of the extra local averaging is to reduce the variance of the first estimator. We show that the second estimator achieves oracle efficiency in the sense that each estimated additive component has the same variance as in the case when all other additive components were known. Asymptotic properties are derived for both estimators under dependent processes that are strictly stationary and absolutely regular. We also provide a demonstrative empirical application of additive quantile models to ambulance travel times.     

A Quantile Regression Model for Time-Series Data in the Presence of Additive Components

In this article, we propose a kernel-based estimator for the finite-dimensional parameter of a partially additive linear quantile regression model. For dependent processes that are strictly stationary and absolutely regular, we establish a precise convergent rate and show that the estimator is root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. To help facilitate inferential procedures, a consistent estimator for the asymptotic variance is also provided. In addition to conducting a simulation experiment to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimator, an application to US inflation is presented. We use the real-data example to motivate how partially additive linear quantile models can offer an alternative modeling option for time-series data.     

Jackknifed kernel quantile estimators

A new quantile estimator is obtained by jackknifing the kernel quantile estimator. The asymptotic relative deficiency of the kernel quantile estimator relative to the jackknifed quantile estimator is investigated.     

Random Weighting Estimation for Quantile Processes and Negatively Associated Samples

This article presents new theories of random weighting estimation for quantile processes and negatively associated samples. Under the condition that X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are independent random variables with a common distribution, the consistency for random weighting estimation of quantile processes is rigorously proved. When X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are not independent of each other, random weighting estimation of sample mean is established for negatively associated samples.     

Nonparametric Inference for Time-Varying Coefficient Quantile Regression

The article considers nonparametric inference for quantile regression models with time-varying coefficients. The errors and covariates of the regression are assumed to belong to a general class of locally stationary processes and are allowed to be cross-dependent. Simultaneous confidence tubes (SCTs) and integrated squared difference tests (ISDTs) are proposed for simultaneous nonparametric inference of the latter models with asymptotically correct coverage probabilities and Type I error rates. Our methodologies are shown to possess certain asymptotically optimal properties. Furthermore, we propose an information criterion that performs consistent model selection for nonparametric quantile regression models of nonstationary time series. For implementation, a wild bootstrap procedure is proposed, which is shown to be robust to the dependent and nonstationary data structure. Our method is applied to studying the asymmetric and time-varying dynamic structures of the U.S. unemployment rate since the 1940s. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

A Projection-Based Nonparametric Test of Conditional Quantile Independence

Abstract

This paper proposes a nonparametric procedure for testing conditional quantile independence using projections. Relative to existing smoothed nonparametric tests, the resulting test statistic: (i) detects the high frequency local alternatives that converge to the null hypothesis in probability at faster rate and, (ii) yields improvements in the finite sample power when a large number of variables are included under the alternative. In addition, it allows the researcher to include qualitative information and, if desired, direct the test against specific subsets of alternatives without imposing any functional form on them. We use the weighted Nadaraya-Watson (WNW) estimator of the conditional quantile function avoiding the boundary problems in estimation and testing and prove weak uniform consistency (with rate) of the WNW estimator for absolutely regular processes. The procedure is applied to a study of risk spillovers among the banks. We show that the methodology generalizes some of the recently proposed measures of systemic risk and we use the quantile framework to assess the intensity of risk spillovers among individual financial institutions.     

An Investigation of Quantile Function Estimators Relative to Quantile Confidence Interval Coverage

In this article, we investigate the limitations of traditional quantile function estimators and introduce a new class of quantile function estimators, namely, the semi-parametric tail-extrapolated quantile estimators, which has excellent performance for estimating the extreme tails with finite sample sizes. The smoothed bootstrap and direct density estimation via the characteristic function methods are developed for the estimation of confidence intervals. Through a comprehensive simulation study to compare the confidence interval estimations of various quantile estimators, we discuss the preferred quantile estimator in conjunction with the confidence interval estimation method to use under different circumstances. Data examples are given to illustrate the superiority of the semi-parametric tail-extrapolated quantile estimators. The new class of quantile estimators is obtained by slight modification of traditional quantile estimators, and therefore, should be specifically appealing to researchers in estimating the extreme tails.     

A Multivariate Quantile Predictor

ABSTRACT

We introduce a nonparametric quantile predictor for multivariate time series via generalizing the well-known univariate conditional quantile into a multivariate setting for dependent data. Applying the multivariate predictor to predicting tail conditional quantiles from foreign exchange daily returns, it is observed that the accuracy of extreme tail quantile predictions can be greatly improved by incorporating interdependence between the returns in a bivariate framework. As a special application of the multivariate quantile predictor, we also introduce a so-called joint-horizon quantile predictor that is used to produce multi-step quantile predictions in one-go from univariate time series realizations. A simulation example is discussed to illustrate the relevance of the joint-horizon approach.     

Combining forecast quantiles using quantile regression: Investigating the derived weights, estimator bias and imposing constraints

SUMMARY A novel proposal for combining forecast distributions is to use quantile regression to combine quantile estimates. We consider the usefulness of the resultant linear combining weights. If the quantile estimates are unbiased, then there is strong intuitive appeal for omitting the constant and constraining the weights to sum to unity in the quantile regression. However, we show that suppressing the constant renders one of the main attractive features of quantile regression invalid. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for unbiasedness of a quantile estimate, and show that a combination with zero constant and weights that sum to unity is not necessarily unbiased.     

Power-transformed linear regression on quantile residual life for censored competing risks data

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a power-transformed linear quantile regression model for the residual lifetime of competing risks data. The proposed model can describe the association between any quantile of a time-to-event distribution among survivors beyond a specific time point and the covariates. Under covariate-dependent censoring, we develop an estimation procedure with two steps, including an unbiased monotone estimating equation for regression parameters and cumulative sum processes for the Box–Cox transformation parameter. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are also derived. We employ an efficient bootstrap method for the estimation of the variance–covariance matrix. The finite-sample performance of the proposed approaches are evaluated through simulation studies and a real example.     

Bayesian variable selection and estimation in maximum entropy quantile regression

Quantile regression has gained increasing popularity as it provides richer information than the regular mean regression, and variable selection plays an important role in the quantile regression model building process, as it improves the prediction accuracy by choosing an appropriate subset of regression predictors. Unlike the traditional quantile regression, we consider the quantile as an unknown parameter and estimate it jointly with other regression coefficients. In particular, we adopt the Bayesian adaptive Lasso for the maximum entropy quantile regression. A flat prior is chosen for the quantile parameter due to the lack of information on it. The proposed method not only addresses the problem about which quantile would be the most probable one among all the candidates, but also reflects the inner relationship of the data through the estimated quantile. We develop an efficient Gibbs sampler algorithm and show that the performance of our proposed method is superior than the Bayesian adaptive Lasso and Bayesian Lasso through simulation studies and a real data analysis.     

Nonparametric estimators for quantile density function under length-biased sampling

Abstract

In this article, the strong uniform consistency of two nonparametric estimators for the quantile density function is established under length-biased sampling. The rate of the strong approximation of the resulting processes of these estimators will be presented as well. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare the proposed estimators with each other in terms of mean squared errors.     

Adaptive composite quantile regressions and their asymptotic relative efficiency

The composite quantile regression (CQR for short) provides an efficient and robust estimation for regression coefficients. In this paper we introduce two adaptive CQR methods. We make two contributions to the quantile regression literature. The first is that, both adaptive estimators treat the quantile levels as realizations of a random variable. This is quite different from the classic CQR in which the quantile levels are typically equally spaced, or generally, are treated as fixed values. Because the asymptotic variances of the adaptive estimators depend upon the generic distribution of the quantile levels, it has the potential to enhance estimation efficiency of the classic CQR. We compare the asymptotic variance of the estimator obtained by the CQR with that obtained by quantile regressions at each single quantile level. The second contribution is that, in terms of relative efficiency, the two adaptive estimators can be asymptotically equivalent to the CQR method as long as we choose the generic distribution of the quantile levels properly. This observation is useful in that it allows to perform parallel distributed computing when the computational complexity issue arises for the CQR method. We compare the relative efficiency of the adaptive methods with respect to some existing approaches through comprehensive simulations and an application to a real-world problem.