单独两孩政策的定位、意义和有序实施

党的十八届三中全会决定＂启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策＂,是对我国现行生育政策逐步调整完善的重大战略部署。本文就启动实施单独两孩政策的科学定位、重要意义和有序实施等问题进行探讨。一、单独两孩政策的科学定位1.单独两孩政策不能等同于单独两胎政策。迄今为止,计划生育法律法规实施细则中均明确规定：＂双胞胎＂和＂多胞胎＂不能算作独生子女。如果我们把中央新政宣传为夫妻一方为独生子女的都可以生育第二胎的话,那是对中央精神的曲解。2.实施单独两孩政策是我国现行生育政策逐步调整为普遍两孩政策的重要过渡。在1980年后,我国各地曾对普遍提倡一对夫妇生育一个孩子的政策进行过三次较大的完善措施：     

甘肃省适龄人口生育意愿的实证分析

本文选取不同年龄、不同级别城市和乡村的适龄生育人口,在问卷调查的基础上就甘肃省在实行“独生子女”政策时的生育行为和“全面两孩”政策下的生育意愿进行了分析.结果表明:相对于“独生子女”政策时的生育水平,单纯的“全面两孩”政策并不能有效地提高甘肃省的人口生育水平,且适龄人口的生育意愿与生育年龄呈显著负相关关系.因此,笔者认为应调整当前我国实施的人口控制政策,同时针对甘肃省的人口年龄结构失调、男女比例失衡及后续劳动力资源紧缺等问题提出了相应政策建议,以利于甘肃省及全国人口生育水平的提高.     

江苏省生育政策一元化对人口出生的影响

为估算独生子女夫妇生育2孩的影响,文章以江苏省为例,采用年龄孩次递进模型和生育率拆分的方法,测算了全省非农人口也和农村一样("生育政策一元化"),实行"夫妻一方为独生子女的家庭,可以生育第2个孩子"的政策(简称"单独",非农业人口现行的"夫妻双方均为独生子女可以生育第2个孩子"的政策简称"双独")对人口出生规模的影响.测算结果表明:全省城乡都实行"单独"生育政策后,平均每年人口出生增加最大不超过7.3万人,对江苏省的人口规模不会有明显的影响;在政策调整初期,可能出现出生堆积现象,需要各地政府进行必要的疏导;这种政策调整早一点,出生堆积就会小一点.     

中国独生子女家庭与二孩家庭生育模式百年模拟与选择

不少人对中国的独生子女政策可能造成家庭负担过重忧心忡忡。通过独生子女家庭和“二孩加间隔”家庭未来百年发展变化模拟评价后认为：如果生育模式选择得当,独生子女家庭“四、二、二” 负担结构有可能基本避免,未来独生子女家庭的负担,也不会比历史上经历过的较重的负担更重。生育模式选择不当,生二个孩子,并不能保证比生一个孩子负担轻。从百年人口对资源环境和杜会经济发展的压力看,“二孩加间隔” 的政策无论如何组合和选择,所形成的人口压力都要显著大于独生子女政策,而独生子女家庭的生育模式如果选择得当,它的家庭负担不见得比生育模式选择不当的二孩家庭重多少。因此,政府应坚持稳定现行生育政策,坚持提倡一对夫妇只生一个孩子;同时应按最优生育模式,对生育年龄和间隔进行适当的调整。     

生育政策调整研究中存在的问题与反思

文章对生育政策调整研究过程中存在的基础数据、数学模型、参数假设的问题及研究结果的争论与分歧进行了探讨,指出中国现有人口普查、抽样调查数据在生育水平、独生子女总量、育龄妇女总量与结构等方面存在比较突出的矛盾和偏差。作者认为宏观人口模型并不适于单独二孩等生育政策调整研究,建议采用微观随机人口仿真模型解决数据质量和区间估计问题。文章进一步分析单独二孩生育政策和全面二孩生育政策可能存在的出生人口堆积情况,反思生育政策调整研究面临的问题、困难和解决的办法,指出今后中国生育政策调整研究应该注意的主要问题。     

“单独二孩”政策的前因与后果

十八届三中全会在《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》中确定,要＂坚持计划生育的基本国策,启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策,逐步调整完善生育政策,促进人口长期均衡发展＂。实行了30多年的计划生育政策至此经历了最大幅度的调整。无论是从我国人口现在较低的生育水平,还是从我国正在面对和将要面临的严峻的人口形势上看,从这一时期开始逐步地调整和完善计划生育政策,都具备了可能性和必要性,同时也顺应了群众期盼,有利于社会和谐稳定。一、调整生育政策的可能性和必要性计划生育政策实施30多年以来,我国的人口实现了历史性的转变,在世界范围内绝无仅有。     

中国城市青年地理通婚圈变化及其影响因素研究——基于北京、保定、黄石和西安四城市的调查

本文利用《中国城市青年状况调查》数据,使用多项式Logistic回归分析方法对我国城市青年的地理通婚圈进行研究。研究结果显示:人口迁移流动经历对城市未婚青年意愿通婚圈和初婚青年现实通婚圈的扩大都具有明显的促进作用,同时还发现城市独生子女的通婚圈明显比非独生子女小,但地理通婚圈不会因兄弟姐妹数量的增加而扩大。据此提出"二孩生育"政策应该成为我国生育政策的建议。     

农村独生子女生育选择影响因素及测度研究——基于Multinomial Logistic模型实证分析

本文基于北京市昌平区的农村独生子女调查数据,利用效用最大化离散选择模型,对农村独生子女生育选择模式及影响因素进行了分析。文章不仅考察了个体因素、经济与社会政策因素对生育选择模式的影响,更重要的是从生育选择的预测概率、离散变化以及Odds Ratios等多角度对影响因素的重要程度、影响大小等进行了定量测度分析。并从中推断起决定作用的因素发生变化时,可能导致的生育意愿、计划与行为的改变,探讨独生子女生育选择对中国未来人口变动趋势产生的影响和政策意义。     

生育政策调整对陕西省人口年龄结构的影响研究

为测定生育政策调整对陕西省人口年龄结构的影响,本文选择四种方案进行模拟分析。结果表明:2010—2080年间陕西省人口年龄结构将面临着劳动人口供给量大幅下降和老年抚养比快速增长两大难题;生育政策的调节方案均能在一定程度上缓解上述两大问题的问题;其中从现在起实行"父母中一方是独生子女的家庭可生育两个孩子"的调节效果最佳。     

“人口政策调整”有利于我国长期发展

全国人民期盼已久的生育政策调整终于在十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》（以下简称《决定》）中尘埃落定了。《决定》提出：＂坚持计划生育的基本国策,启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可以生育两个孩子的政策,逐步调整完善生育政策,促进人口长期均衡发展。＂这是我国进入21世纪以来生育政策的重大调整完善,是国家人口发展的重要战略决策。这一战略决策不仅符合广大人民群众的生育需求,更充分反映了我国人口形势发生根本性变化条件下经济社会发展的现实要求。中国人口转变用了世界上最短的时间。2010年全国第六次人口普查表明,     

Continue to encourage one couple to have one child]

The Chinese State Council exhorted the masses in 1984 and 1986 to improve upon its adherence to the birth policy. The policy of 1 child per couple is the proper policy reflecting specific historical conditions. China's goal to modernize cannot be realized if the population grows unchecked. With the exception of minorities and certain rural families, all couples are affected by this policy. The 1 child rate jumped from 20.73% in 1970 to 58.3% in 1984, while the 3 child rate dropped to 19.8% from 60.21% during those years. In order to solve one of China's major future population problems, it is necessary to continue advocating 1 child per couple. With the 1986 population at 1,060,080,000, China's average per capita income is among the lowest in the world. It is not enough simply to improve the economy. Population growth must be contained at 1,200,000,000 by 2000. If every couple were permitted 2 children, and allowing for unplanned births, the population would be 1,300,000,000 in 2000. Therefore, it is essential to encourage more couples to limit families to 1 child through example by officials, propaganda, material incentives and priorities in jobs and housing.     

The family planning law should be issued as soon as possible]

China is facing a baby boom in the next ten years. Now is a perfect time to formulate legislature on family planning (FP) to strengthen the current policy and regulations in order to slow the momentum of excessive population growth. As a result of current economic reform and implementation of the rural household responsibility system, the migrant population has increased tremendously. The fact that millions of rural farmers are shifting to non-agricultural areas created new challenges to the effectiveness of traditional measures of the FP program. Promulgating laws and legislature will facilitate the job of FP. The law should stress the restriction of population growth and encouraging one child per couple. In the rural area it is not feasible to implement the one child policy indiscriminately. Under the policy of one child for a majority of the couples, no third birth is permitted. Local governments should be given the authorization to grant permission for second births for special cases within the birth planning quota. Allowing people living in poor and less developed areas to have more children and granting mothers of handicapped children permission to have an additional child were in fact facilitating the deterioration of the quality of the population. Some current policy in rural income distribution and social welfare was beneficial to large-sized family. Such policies should be changed to give incentives to small-sized families.     

中国普遍二孩生育的政策环境与政策目标

普遍二孩生育政策的实施效果,不仅涉及人口长期均衡发展目标的实现,也决定着生育政策下一步改革的方向和速度。文章围绕“谁来生”（生育主体）、“如何养”（社会经济条件）、“生多少”（生育文化）三个问题,着重分析了中国普遍二孩生育的人口环境、社会经济环境和政治文化环境。结果显示普遍二孩生育政策并不会起到立竿见影提升生育率水平的效果,其对劳动力短缺、人口老龄化等结构性问题的解决也不会是即时的。文章对这一政策的可能效果与实现政策目标的关系进行了理论上的探讨,认为政府工作的重点须顺应政策环境的变化,努力创造生育友好型社会,而不是急于求成再次贸然改变生育政策。     

Son preference and the one child policy in China: 1979–1988

Using data from the Two-Per-Thousand National Fertility Survey, this research analyzes how son preference, a deep-rooted cultural norm for more than two thousand years, affects compliance with China's one child population policy for women at risk during the period of 1979 to 1988. Four events after the first live birth are used to evaluate compliance with the policy: (1) certificate acceptance (an indicator of future fertility intention); (2) the use of contraceptives (an indicator of intention to prevent a subsequent pregnancy); (3) the occurrence of a pregnancy subsequent to the first live birth (a potential violation of the one child policy), and (4) among those pregnant, the likelihood of an abortion (an indicator of compliance by preventing a second live birth). It is found that son preference is still prevalent in China. Although the effect of son preference is not the most important, urbanization, education, and occupation have not fundamentally changed its influence on women's compliance. In addition, the effect of son preference on the compliance is not altered by government control. Preference for sons continues to be a factor discouraging the compliance with the one child policy.This article is based on a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, 1–4 April 1993, Cincinnati, OH, USA.     

Advocating "one couple with one child" being an optimal choice]

Zero population growth within the next 5 years in China would be reached only if many couples were not allowed to have their own child. On the other hand, if every couple were allowed to have 2 children China's population would reach 1500 million within the next 50 years. It seems advisable to advocate the "1 couple 1 child" idea; couples will have to keep in mind both the national interest and the communist ideology; social welfare to assure good living conditions for the old people will relieve the worries of parents with 1 child only. Most people are willing to follow this decision made by the Communist Party; many people declare their willingness to stick by this rule during their wedding ceremony; many couples send back their permit to have a second child, and many women choose abortion when pregnant with a second permitted pregnancy. By the end of 1979 the proportion of "1 couple 1 child" couples was 90% in many large cities; people realize that the practice of "1 couple 1 child" is the best assurance for the future of the country and of their children. This policy will not result in aging of the population, lack of manpower and shortage of soldiers; even if birth rate were 1% in 1985 the proportion of older people for the next 25 years will still be lower than that in European countries. The problem of aging of the population will not occur in this century, and population policies can always be adjusted when needed. Today's problem is to control population through the "1 couple 1 child" policy, even if it may result in many lonely old people, which is a lesser problem than too many people. Even if China has reduced its population growth by 10 million births each year from 1970 to 1979, the necessity to control population growth is still present, in the interest of the country and economic development.     

Control of population by economic means]

Education alone cannot effectively control population growth. Benefit to the individual must be coordinated with the benefit to the community and the country. It is absolutely necessary and possible to control population by economic means. The economic policy in Tienjing includes: 1) give preference to single child families in child care, health benefits, education, and employment, and financially punish families with more than two children; 2) establish a better rationing policy, one not based on a per capita ration, and give preference to single child families; 3) establish retirement benefits and guarantee higher living standards for retirees who have either no children or only 1 or 2 children, and give paid sick leave to people experiencing complications following sterilization operations; 4) establish equal inheritance rights for both male and female offspring; and 5) give bonuses to units with excellent family planning results and to medical personnel with fewer complications during sterilization operations, and financially punish groups with poor family planning results. In order to effectively implement the economic means, coordinate bonuses with punishment, and coordinate local policies with those of the entire society. The key is strong leadership, but the voluntary and active involvement of the public insures success.     

中国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果

快速老龄化对我国经济产生广泛的影响,我国也先后实施"单独二孩"和"全面二孩"政策,以提高出生率来应对人口快速老龄化问题.然而,已有研究主要是基于过去人口变化的特征事实作出的,而我国在老龄化冲击下调整计划生育政策,将会改变人口原有的变化趋势,这是已有研究没有遇到过的新情况.本文以"全面二孩"政策的实施为契机,使用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)分析了我国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果,研究发现提高出生率总体上有利于应对人口老龄化对经济的冲击,但也会付出物价上涨、经济波动增加及社会福利下降的代价.在以上结论基础上,本文做了进一步的探讨.     

The effects of welfare and child support policies on union formation

We use data from a new longitudinal survey – the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study – to examine how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together. We use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effects of the policy variables along with economic, cultural/interpersonal, and other factors on whether (relative to being in a cohabiting relationship) parents are not romantically involved, romantically involved living apart, or married to each other about one year after the child's birth. We find that – contrary to some previous research – higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth.     

Retrospective evidence of a decline of fertility and child mortality in Bangladesh

A detailed analysis of survey data collected in 1961–1962 for a sample of 4200 families in central East Pakistan produced consistent and reasonable estimates of birth and death rates for the preceding decade. Extremely high levels of infant and child mortality declined noticeably in the period 1952–1961. Age-specific birth rates to married women also decreased in the decade for women over the age of 19, while a small increase was recorded for married women aged 15 to 19. During the 1950s total marital fertility declined about one-fifth. Birth rates remained high in 1960 according to these estimates, but there is reason to anticipate further reductions in birth rates, particularly among older women. To improve understanding of the determinants of fertility and to aid in the formulation of policy to cope with population trends, statistical analysis must increasingly consider information on families over time. Retrospective household survey data may provide the empirical base for this line of inquiry.