中国城市人口规模的空间演化及影响因素 ——基于264个地级市的实证研究

从集聚收益与成本角度探讨城市人口规模的空间演化机制,并采用含有地理距离、经济距离和流动网络权重的空间自回归模型,实证检验不同层级城市人口规模的空间演化路径与影响因素.研究发现不同层级城市人口规模演化路径均表现出显著的收敛增长特性,且1类大及以上城市的收敛增长系数最大,2类大城市和小城市系数大小相当并居中,中等城市的系数最小;工资、 第三产业发展、 教育、 医疗水平是促进人口规模增长的主要收益因素,环境污染强度是抑制人口规模增长的主要成本因素.     

论城市小区的人口规模

在城市人口研究中,影响一个城市人口规模的因素同影响该城市中某个区的人口规模,情况是不相同的。城市人口的数量,通常包括常住人口和流动人口两部分。在户口不能随意搬迁的情况下,城市人口是指有户口的人口总量,它是相对地封闭在这个城市地域范围之内的,除了自然增长,是相对稳定的,其规模决定于该城市的生产和经济活动的规模。     

劳动力流动与城市规模分布——以珠三角城市群为例的研究CSSCI

以珠三角城市群为例,使用人口普查数据汇总城市常住人口规模,应用齐夫指数度量城市规模分布的集中度,研究了劳动力流动对城市规模分布的影响及成因。结果显示,基于常住人口统计口径的齐夫指数显著低于基于户籍人口统计口径的齐夫指数,这意味着劳动力流动提高了城市规模分布的集中度。进一步使用迁移人口占比衡量城市人口集聚能力,结果显示,城市规模增长显著提高了城市的人口集聚能力。研究结论的启示是,充分发挥大城市的人口集聚能力,适当提高城市规模分布的集中度,对加速推进中国城市化进程有益。     

北京地区的城市化与城市人口规模的有效控制

城市化是指人口向城镇集中的过程,城市化过程的结果是城市人口规模、特别是市区人口规模的急剧膨胀,同时,也由此产生了以人口为核心的一系列“城市问题”。 北京地区城市化的突出特点首先是全市人口增长迅速。按照目前的辖区范围,1949年全市常住总人口为414万人,其中城市人口176万人,到1986年底,全市常住总人口达到971万人,比1949年净增加1.35倍,其中常住城市人口587万人,比1949年净增加2.34倍,城市人口增加的速度比全市城乡人口增加的速度高出73％。构成人口规模的增长因素,包括人口的自然增长(即出生人口与死亡人口相抵,净增加人口)和人口的迁移增长(即迁入北京的     

长三角地区城市增长的影响因素

文章以国内外城市增长的相关理论和研究为基础,基于长三角地区地级及以上城市面板数据,利用城市经济增长、人口规模、劳动生产率三个指标来研究1990²010年间城市增长,发现长三角地区城市发展呈现出明显的趋同趋势,并且人口迁移和城市经济集聚存在显著的双向因果关系,人口迁移通过增加当地市场潜力、规模经济和外部性等促进了城市经济集聚,而城市经济集聚进一步吸引了大量的人口迁移。为了促进长三角地区城市发展,建议充分发挥市场机制作用,减少制度性限制,促进要素的自由流动,充分发挥城市的经济集聚功能。     

基于城市功能定位的人口规模调控方式新探

我国现有的人口调控方式目前,针对许多城市出现的城市规模膨胀、人口畸形集中、贫富差距扩大、环境污染加剧、交通拥堵严重等城市病,包括政府在内的社会各方都将其归因于人多,从而在实践中产生了直接的行政限制和间接的经济疏导两种人口调控方式。直接的行政限制方式主要是通过设置门槛控制流动人口进入,通常采用与福利保障相捆绑的户籍制度来达到控制大城市人口增长的目的。我国过去很长一段时期甚至直到现在,很多城市仍采用这种方式限制人口流入。     

长三角地区城市增长的影响因素

文章以国内外城市增长的相关理论和研究为基础,基于长三角地区地级及以上城市面板数据,利用城市经济增长、人口规模、劳动生产率三个指标来研究1990~2010年间城市增长,发现长三角地区城市发展呈现出明显的趋同趋势,并且人口迁移和城市经济集聚存在显著的双向因果关系,人口迁移通过增加当地市场潜力、规模经济和外部性等促进了城市经济集聚,而城市经济集聚进一步吸引了大量的人口迁移。为了促进长三角地区城市发展,建议充分发挥市场机制作用,减少制度性限制,促进要素的自由流动,充分发挥城市的经济集聚功能。     

产业集聚与结构高度化对北京人口规模的影响:膨胀还是收敛?

人口增长过快、规模过大一直是困扰北京的一个大问题,受到社会各界的关注。本文利用2006~2013年北京16个区县面板数据,采用固定效应模型,从产业集聚和产业结构高度化的视角分析产业对北京人口规模增长的影响。研究认为,第二产业集聚对北京人口规模增长具有促进作用,而第三产业集聚对北京人口规模增长具有抑制作用,特别是第三产业中现代服务业的集聚对北京人口规模增长的抑制作用更大;产业结构高度化对北京人口规模增长具有显著的挤出效应;在产业结构高度化程度不断加深的条件下,第三产业特别是现代服务业集聚对人口规模增长的抑制作用将强于第二产业集聚带来的促进作用,两者共同作用下北京人口规模将趋于收敛。本文在一定程度上验证了已有研究对该问题的定性分析结果,为政府通过产业政策调控人口规模提供了一定的理论支持和调控方向。     

近20年来广州市人口分布时空间差异及原因分析

利用第三、四和五次人口普查资料采用数学模型对近 2 0年来广州市人口分布的变化特点进行探讨。分析得出 :广州市人口增长较前 1 0年变缓 ,人口增长地区差异比较明显 ,城市中心的周边地区人口增长迅速 ,中心城区总体上人口减少 ;广州人口分布趋向规则化 ,均衡化 ,人口密度由单中心向多中心的趋势变化 ,同时郊区化现象比较明显等。并对广州城市人口的增长和分布随城市规模和时空间变化特点进行了模型归纳     

基于三种模型的江苏沿海人口比较测算

本文运用马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic 增长模型和线性函数三种理论模型，结合江苏省第六次全国人口普查研究统计数据对江苏沿海2012—2020年的人口发展规模进行预测，研究江苏沿海人口演变特征，预测未来人口增长率及规模，结果显示：基于三种模型运行的五种结果差异较大，根据江苏沿海的实际情况和前人研究结果，确认江苏沿海到2020年的总人口为2125.47万人。研究结果以期能为江苏沿海的科学发展提供参考依据。     

论中国城市规模分布的区域差异

本文分析了建国以后中国三大地区的城市增长状况 ,三大地区的城市规模分布特征及其成因 ,探讨了中国中、西部地区城市规模结构的缺陷可能给对外开放和西部大开发带来的负面影响 ,同时指出了“控制大城市规模”的城市发展方针与对外开放政策、社会主义市场经济体制的建立以及西部大开发战略等的矛盾。本文认为 :大城市是地区经济发展的“增长极” ,中、西部地区缺少具有较大影响范围的大城市和特大城市 ,使得这些地区在市场经济条件下和改革开放过程中的创新机会和领先条件大为减少 ,而且会影响到西部大开发战略的顺利实施     

Urban growth in Korea, 1970-1980: an application of the human ecological perspective

This study supports the ecological perspective proposed by Duncan (population, environment, organization, and technology) explaining urban population growth. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Korean Population Census and Korean Municipal Yearbook on cities with a minimum size of 20,000-50,000 people (108 cities and towns). Urban growth is most strongly influenced by indigenous labor surplus and the population potential of the city to be in contact with another city. Nine multiple regression variables explained just under 66% of the variance in urban growth. Net migration was influential among those aged 15-24 years. The extent of differentiation of industry affected net migration only among those aged 15-24 years and those aged 35-44 years. Population redistribution was more affected directly by changes in industrial organization, and migration was affected indirectly by environmental and technological effects on organization. Urban growth through migration of older age groups was affected by government expenditure on public works. Urban growth was not much affected by transportation/communication concentration, manufacturing concentration, urban labor surplus, population size, and site. Urban growth was viewed as the interaction between the unemployment rate and the urban wage, following Todaro's equilibrium models. In Korea, larger cities only grew faster during the 1960s. By the 1970s, upper middle-sized cities grew faster. Location was not a significant factor in explaining urban growth, but growth was rapid along a corridor within 100 km from Seoul and 50 km from Pusan, the second largest city in Korea. Caution was urged in interpreting Korea's ecological urban growth patterns as indicative of developing countries.     

我国城市人口规模分布演化影响因素研究

本文根据新经济地理学经济集聚机制,建立了一个城市体系人口规模分布演化影响因素的综合分析框架,并基于Zipf法则构建了城市人口规模分布演化的计量模型,然后采用中国284个地级及以上城市2003～2009年的面板数据进行实证检验。结果发现,经济地理因素、新经济地理因素与经济政策因素均显著影响城市人口规模分布。     

空间相互作用与城市经济增长--来自长三角的证据

基于以往研究对空间相互作用方向性考虑不足的事实,文章以长三角133个县市为例,构建了融合新经济地理学与中心地理论的理论框架,将表征空间需求关联的总体市场潜能细分为来自同层级、高等级、低等级三个方向,利用空间计量模型估计了总体及不同方向的空间相互作用对长三角地区人均GDP增长与人口增长的效应。结果显示：在控制空间依赖导致的间接溢出效应等因素后,并未发现存在要素价格绝对调整或要素数量绝对调整的证据,总体市场潜能的提高同时促进了城市人均GDP增长与人口增长;就不同方向的空间相互作用而言,大城市的自身发展有利于中等城市的人均GDP增长,大城市之间、大城市对下级城市、小城市对上级城市形成了人口增长的良性互动格局,而中等城市之间以及中等城市对大城市的人口增长则表现为回流效应。     

The temporal and spatial dynamics of city-size distributions in China

Under the communist regime, the Chinese government has developed policies both to limit the growth of large cities and to promote spatial equity in population distribution. The literature provides only very general and inconclusive results regarding the impact of these policies. This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of China's urban policies by investigating the temporal and spatial dynamics of the size distribution of China's cities during the period 1922–82. The research framework — which is based on a function relating population size to rank —is used to test for trends of deconcentration (where smaller cities grow faster than larger cities) and spatial decentralization (with a more even spatial distribution) of population over the study period. More formally, the ‘expansion methodology’ is used to investigate the dynamics of the rank-size function in both temporal and spatial dimensions. The findings show that from 1953 to 1970 there was significant population deconcentration, which appeared to be reversed subsequently. However, policies of spatial decentralization were not found to be successful. Among the reasons suggested for the apparent failure are political upheavals and shifts in policies, the inertia within the urban system, the harsh physical environment in the interior, and current trends in economic policies that focus on the coastal areas. In spite of recent criticisms of studies on city-size distributions (which this paper also discusses), the research framework proposed and utilized here is able to portray the dynamics of a national urban system, and the framework can be used to evaluate national urban policies.     

城镇化进程中的人口流动与城镇新增贫困人口问题分析

在城镇化的过程中,农村人口净流向城镇。这一方面推动城镇和农村的发展,另一方面带来城镇贫困人口的增加。由农村流入城镇的人口其贫困发生率大致在3%以上。为预防和保障人口流动中的城镇新增贫困人口,应该采取措施分类引导人口的城镇化,建立和完善进入城镇农民的社会保障体系,积极发展城镇服务业等第三产业,避免过度的城市化带来城镇贫困问题的扩大。     

[A preliminary analysis of the migration of urban populations in China].]

The author presents an analysis of migration of urban populations from 1951 to 1986 in China. Size and direction of urban migrant populations and the reasons for migration are included. The rural-urban migration is described as relatively stable in size and controlled by national political factors, economic conditions, and an urban population growth policy.     

工业化力度、人口流动行为与户籍改革

本文分析了户籍制度保护二元劳动力市场的前提条件 ,通过实证研究论证了工业化乏力和劳动力市场素质门槛是限制农村劳动力进城就业的根本原因。基于人口流动行为的分析 ,阐明了户籍制度改革可能使部分率先富裕起来的农民入住集镇或中小城市 ,但并不能根本改变民工在城乡间或城市间的“钟摆式”流动特征 ,难以达到促进城市化从而促进就业转换及扩大就业的目标 ,最后是政策含义。     

On population of urbanization]

Unlike cities in capitalistic societies our socialistic cities are publically owned, and the relationship between rural and urban areas is mutually supportive and beneficial. 2 types of calculations are required for successful urbanization: an estimate of the total labor required in the city and an estimate of total agricultural products required to support the cities. Disregard for these 2 factors and overpopulated cities will result in unemployment, decreased agricultural production, inflation, and a decreased living standard. A balance between cities and country is important, and therefore population urbanization should be well planned. Capitalistic urbanization of population is based on the principle of private ownership and competition--from unplanned concentration of population in big cities to malignant expansion to the final decline of inner cities. Their governments are forced to redistribute the urban population. The same problem of overpopulated cities in underdeveloped countries results from stagnant agricultural production. We should learn from their mistakes in developing our cities. There are 2 types of socialistic urbanization. Russia has lopsidedly emphasized urban development and ignored agricultural production. Romania, on the other hand, emphasized both labor force distribution and agricultural production. Their numerous small cities near rural areas decrease the difference between big cities and the country. In the past we failed to follow our direction of urbanization--control the size of big cities, reasonably develop mid-sized cities, and actively develop small cities--because of the great difference in living standards between urban and rural areas and the lack of urbanization plans. The concept of industrialization must be accompanied by the concept of population urbanization.     

Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities

The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.