范敏：微笑曲线谋局

从当年四君子联手创下携程至今11年,无论江湖多少刀光剑影,携程还是那个携程。     

携程：有节制地创新

携程旅行网所从事的旅游行业，今年的日子并不好过。 依靠庞大的会员群体，从酒店和航空公司获取更低的折扣，这是携程的商业模式。依据这个商业模式分析，携程今年遭受的负面影响是显而易见的——年初的雪灾，随后的藏独、四川地震，还有奥运期间的各种管制，人们的出行大为减少。     

携程发飙了

携程发飙了. 7月上旬,携程放出消息称:预备投入5亿美元(约合32亿元人民币)开展低价促销,促销活动从7月起持续一年时间,涉及酒店、机票和旅游门票等.携程此举,拉开了国内在线旅游业以价格战为前奏的洗牌大幕. 作为在线旅游行业的老头,过去一年中,携程在线旅游业务营收总额为37亿元人民币,利润10.8亿元.2011年,携程全年市场营销费用总计9923万美元. 换言之,如若此次计划成行,意味着携程将以约一年的营收总额,或去年一年利润的3倍数额投入了市场营销.作为一个有着盈利诉求的上市公司,这样的决策让人惊讶.     

携程发飙了

携的低价促销活动从7月起持续一年时间，涉及酒店、机票和旅游门票等。携程此举，拉开了国内在线旅游业以价格战为前奏的洗牌大幕     

网络环境下的服务创新与价值共创:携程案例研究

“携程旅行网”作为在线旅游服务业的代表引来了无数效仿者,但其成功地位始终未被撼动.在看似简单的商业模式背后蕴含的是难以模仿的价值共创与服务创新理念及能力,而网络环境下的价值共创与服务创新仍是一黑箱.本研究采用个案研究方法分析了携程的商业模式;并结合服务创新与价值共创理论,解析了网络环境下服务创新与价值共创的机制及要素,剖析了携程成功的奥秘,并进一步为服务型企业构建高效的服务价值网络提供了系统的范式,为其树立供应链管理战略提供了理论支持和政策建议.研究发现:①服务供应链上中下游间的两两互动及服务集成商的内外部整合是价值共创的重要组成,可分为三大模块十九个维度;②服务创新系统与价值共创系统是相互渗透紧密联系的整体,整个系统中必有一个扮演整合者角色的核心集成商存在;③价值共创过程中服务集成商与供应商的互动为服务创新创造了物质基础,服务集成商与顾客的互动为服务创新提供了动机和来源,而服务集成商内外部的整合则是服务创新产出的保障机制.     

水泥与鼠标的完美结合

携程和如家是互联网时代的一对“联体婴儿”。携程有了如家，在虚拟世界里才有了实体根基；如家借助携程这一网络的力量，才有了广阔的客户源。这一商业模式不仅改变着互联网的势力版图，也在深刻地改造着国内各大传统行业，这是水泥十鼠标的完美结合，也是一种颠覆传统的全新商业模式。     

我国旅游网站营销策略对顾客满意度的影响研究

伴随着互联网技术的兴起,方便人们出行的旅游网站迅速发展壮大,同时各旅游网站的竞争也愈发激烈.携程旅行网、去哪儿网等我国知名的旅游网站,通过不断推出优质的产品和服务、开展各种促销活动等营销策略吸引消费者,但很多营销策略的效果并不明显,究其原因是顾客对营销策略的满意度不高.通过分析,本文有针对性地为旅游网站提出了提高营销策略及顾客满意度的建议.     

激烈商战倒逼创新模式

正尽管在OTA(Online Travel Agent,在线旅游)行业中,同程在景区门票这个细分市场占据行业前列,但我们从没有想过高调,我们的使命是"让更多人享受旅游的乐趣,感受生活的美好",因此我们首先是通过"点评返现"模式,颠覆了高价门票的现状,但此举也刺激了整个行业,尤其是携程,为此我们之间一度发生了"双程大战"。"双程大战"之中、之后,分别发生了两件大事:第一,我们拿到了腾讯以及另外两家VC/PE的5亿元人民币投资;第二,原本是对手的携程,向我们投入2.2亿美元的资本。现在,除了我们团队仍是第一大股东之外,第二     

遨游网:中青旅的互联网版图

正在线旅游的价值已经被市场和资本所认可。对于中青旅这样的传统旅行社来说,拥抱互联网带来的改变主要有三点:第一,营销方式发生了改变;第二,消费者购买的渠道发生了改变;第三,也是最重要的一点,就是产品本身的改变。在2012年以前,在线旅游还仅仅是互联网人对于颠覆传统旅游行业的一次尝试,蚂蜂窝、驴妈妈、携程、悠哉旅行网、去哪儿,各种商业模式的在线旅游网站层出不穷,但就像那一年年的"千团大战"一样,浮华背后藏着的是没有人能看清的未来,没有人知道最后能够活下来几家,亦或是全部死去。所以当2011年初百度收购去哪儿的时候,尽管因为蓝标强大的公关能力,媒体声音一片"歌舞升平",但每个业内人的独白相信都是:这3亿美元真的不会打水漂儿吗?     

游购团:捆绑导游和游客共同利益

旅游的六要素是"吃、住、行、游、购、娱",游购团APP搭建了一个移动线上平台,将商品、导游和游客联系在一起。它将导购行为移动互联网化,使导游到切实的利益,让游客的购物行为更便捷。游的六要素是"吃、住、行、游、购、娱",这六要素大部分被OTA(Online Travel Agent;在线旅行社)所渗透,只有"购"这方面的互联网进程比较缓慢。去年,携程在官网上开通了"全球购"频道,主打全球范围内的旅游商品购物。在互联网+旅游的背景下,旅游越来越便捷,旅游购物的市场前景     

THE WELFARE COST OF LAWLESSNESS: EVIDENCE FROM SOMALI PIRACY

In spite of general agreement that establishing the rule of law is central to properly functioning economies, little is known about the cost of law and order breakdowns. This paper studies a specific context of this by estimating the effect of Somali piracy attacks on shipping costs using data on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. To estimate the effect of piracy, we look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 led to around an 8% to 12% increase in costs. From this we calculate the welfare loss imposed by piracy. We estimate that generating around 120 USD million of revenue for Somali pirates led to a welfare loss in excess of 630 USD million, making piracy an expensive way of making transfers.     

协同运输的路线整合问题研究

本文研究协同运输的路线整合问题(CTRIP):允许所有的O-D流(运输任务)在规定的路线长度内任意采取直通运输、单点中转、两点中转的整合运输路线,整合运输的中枢路段在支付固定成本后可产生运费折扣,如何选择O-D流的整合路线使得总成本最小? CTRIP广泛应用于航空、物流、快递等领域的整合运输实践。论文构造了CTRIP的混合整数规划模型和Benders分解算法,实验显示,算法表现出非常好的计算绩效。最后,我们利用一个具体实例对CTRIP与已有研究展开了比较,结论显示CTRIP更能保证中枢路段的规模优势 。     

Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster

Return migration is key to community recovery from many disasters. Japanese governments have conducted radiation decontamination efforts in the Exclusion Zone designated after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in order to encourage this outcome. Little is known, however, about the factors that influence post-disaster migrants to return, and, if people are relatively unresponsive to decontamination, then the costs of promoting recovery may exceed the benefits. We exploit a unique survey of Fukushima evacuees to determine the factors that influence their decision to return after a disaster. Location-specific capital characteristics, such as housing tenure and the extent of property damage, are estimated to be strong factors. The radiation dose rate of the home location is found to be a statistically significant factor for intent to return, but its effect is small. We also found that households with various other characteristics were noncommittal about the return option and likely to defer their decisions, which implies that “return” and “not-return” are asymmetric. Our simulation analysis found that the number of returnees encouraged by this decontamination was 12,882, less than 8% of the total evacuees, while the decontamination cost per returnee was 3.36 million USD. This result implies that the government could have improved the well-being of evacuees at a lower cost by policies other than decontamination.     

Risk Estimation and Value-of-Information Analysis for Three Proposed Genetic Screening Programs for Chronic Beryllium Disease Prevention

Genetic differences (polymorphisms) among members of a population are thought to influence susceptibility to various environmental exposures. In practice, however, this information is rarely incorporated into quantitative risk assessment and risk management. We describe an analytic framework for predicting the risk reduction and value-of-information (VOI) resulting from specific risk management applications of genetic biomarkers, and we apply the framework to the example of occupational chronic beryllium disease (CBD), an immune-mediated pulmonary granulomatous disease. One described Human Leukocyte Antigen gene variant, HLA-DP beta 1*0201, contains a substitution of glutamate for lysine at position 69 that appears to have high sensitivity (approximately 94%) but low specificity (approximately 70%) with respect to CBD among individuals occupationally exposed to respirable beryllium. The expected postintervention CBD prevalence rates for using the genetic variant (1) as a required job placement screen, (2) as a medical screen for semiannual in place of annual lymphocyte proliferation testing, or (3) as a voluntary job placement screen are 0.08%, 0.8%, and 0.6%, respectively, in a hypothetical cohort with 1% baseline CBD prevalence. VOI analysis is used to examine the reduction in total social cost, calculated as the net value of disease reduction and financial expenditures, expected for proposed CBD intervention programs based on the genetic susceptibility test. For the example cohort, the expected net VOI per beryllium worker for genetically based testing and intervention is $13,000, $1,800, and $5,100, respectively, based on a health valuation of $1.45 million per CBD case avoided. VOI results for alternative CBD evaluations are also presented. Despite large parameter uncertainty, probabilistic analysis predicts generally positive utility for each of the three evaluated programs when avoidance of a CBD case is valued at $1 million or higher. Although the utility of a proposed risk management program may be evaluated solely in terms of risk reduction and financial costs, decisions about genetic testing and program implementation must also consider serious social, legal, and ethical factors.     

竞争博弈中的角色转换

本文讨论了博弈论中价值网的概念,解释了价值网在竞争分析中的作用,解释了通过改变博弈中的参与者的地位而使博弈对自己有利.本文首次提出了价值网中博弈方角色转换的概念,提出了价值网的网络模型,讨论了由此种转换而产生相应结果,从而拓展了价值网分析的范围.     

BDS替代数据法的人民币汇率非线性特征研究

基于建立的BDS统计检验量替代数据法对1994～2007年人民币对美元汇率进行非线性特征实证研究。通过比较人民币对美元汇率的原始数据和基于一系列零假设条件下原始数据所产生的39组替代数据之间的差异度,发现一系列零假设在95％置信度范围内被拒绝,该序列不是完全随机的,原始数据呈现出内在的确定性非线性特征。同时也表明,随着嵌入维数的增加,原始数据的BDS检验统计量不断增加而且显著为正,这说明该数据不是独立同分布序列,存在着明显的非线性相关性结构。     

Six-sigma for improving Top-Box Customer Satisfaction score for a banking call centre

Six Sigma process improvement methodology has been accepted globally across the service industry. In past one decade, the application and success of Six Sigma in Services is remarkable across Information Technology organisations, Hospitality firms, Government, Healthcare firms and Banking & Financial Sector. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of Six Sigma within call centres where the metric based environment complements the application of Six Sigma for process improvements. The article establishes the literature for the need for Six Sigma in call centre environment elaborating on customer facing metrics in addition to internal performance measures and highlighting the advantages of Six Sigma. A case study is presented in the second part of the article to study the DMAIC project management approach of Six Sigma for improving the Top Box Customer Satisfaction score of a Banking call centre. The literature identifies the possible opportunities for improving the performance of call centre metrics using Six Sigma. The project case study presented as part of the paper delivered a saving of USD 0.27 million to the bank, and is a classic example of how Six Sigma can bring bottom-line impact to an organisation. The article is limited to elaborate the advantages of Six Sigma in call centre environment, emphasising on its need and its compatibility to go along successfully with change acceleration and project management processes. Managerial implications and lessons learned are discussed alongside the concluding notes.     

贸易自由化视角下新丝绸之路战略经济影响评估

新丝绸之路是中国当前实施的一项重大的对外战略,而贸易畅通是中国推进该战略的一项重要举措。中国已经宣布将积极与沿线国家和地区共同商建自由贸易区,激发区域合作潜力。 为探讨贸易自由化视角下新丝绸之路战略的经济影响,采用全球贸易分析模型进行定量分析,以新丝绸之路建设的核心区(中国和中亚五国)为分析对象,从实际GDP、居民福利、进出口贸易和产业结构等方面,对中国与中亚五国开展区域经济一体化合作的效果进行评估。 研究结果表明,①新丝绸之路推进会给沿线国家带来不同的经济增长效应和福利改善效果,是一个共同繁荣和发展的战略。受益于关税减免,中国和中亚五国总GDP增长0.011%,总的福利水平改善671.065百万美元。②新丝绸之路会显著提升沿线国家的经贸合作水平,改变参与国家的产业结构和贸易结构。通过推进区域经济一体化,中国向中亚五国出口增长31.402%,中亚五国向中国出口增长14.143%。③新丝绸之路战略的推进会带来复杂的行业分布效果,中国纺织业受益较大,但农业和电子设备制造业均会遭受一定的损失。与之不同,哈萨克斯坦钢铁金属业产出增幅最高,吉尔吉斯斯坦受益最大的是农业。 从贸易畅通视角推进新丝绸之路经济带建设符合互惠互利的基本原则,中国应该全面客观地了解新丝绸之路战略的影响,针对那些受损严重的行业可能需要出台一定的保护措施。     

Real-World Personal Conversations Using a Hands-Free Embedded Wireless Device While Driving: Effect on Airbag-Deployment Crash Rates

A wireless device embedded in the vehicle allowed the user to engage in a personal hands-free conversation (HFC), and automatically placed an emergency notification call to an OnStar call center if the vehicle was involved in a crash in which its airbag deployed. A database stored the exact counts, start timestamps, and billed durations of all HFC and airbag notification calls. In 30 months of naturalistic driving, there were 91 million HFC calls from an average of 323,994 drivers per month who made calls. There were 14 airbag deployments in 276 million driver-minutes of HFC conversation for an exposed incidence rate of 5.08 airbag crashes per 100 million driver-minutes. There were 2,023 airbag deployments in an estimated 24.7 billion driver-minutes of no HFC conversation for a not-exposed incidence rate of 8.18 airbag crashes per 100 million driver-minutes. The crash incidence rate ratio (IRR) is the ratio of these two rates or 0.62 (95% C.I. 0.37 to 1.05). Sensitivity analyses controlled for the impact on the crash IRR of estimated time spent driving per day and calls by passengers. Counting all crashes as much as 20 minutes later than a call as related to that call gave similar results. We conclude that for personal conversations using a hands-free embedded device the risk of an airbag crash is somewhere in a range from a moderately lower risk to a risk near that of driving without a recent personal conversation. These results are not consistent with the large increase in crash risk reported in epidemiological studies using the case-crossover method.     

Retrospective Cost-Effectiveness Analyses for Polio Vaccination in the United States

The history of polio vaccination in the United States spans 50 years and includes different phases of the disease, multiple vaccines, and a sustained significant commitment of resources. We estimated cost-effectiveness ratios and assessed the net benefits of polio vaccination applicable at various points in time from the societal perspective and we discounted these back to appropriate points in time. We reconstructed vaccine price data from available sources and used these to retrospectively estimate the total costs of the U.S. historical polio vaccination strategies (all costs reported in year 2002 dollars). We estimate that the United States invested approximately US dollars 35 billion (1955 net present value, discount rate of 3%) in polio vaccines between 1955 and 2005 and will invest approximately US dollars 1.4 billion (1955 net present value, or US dollars 6.3 billion in 2006 net present value) between 2006 and 2015 assuming a policy of continued use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for routine vaccination. The historical and future investments translate into over 1.7 billion vaccinations that prevent approximately 1.1 million cases of paralytic polio and over 160,000 deaths (1955 net present values of approximately 480,000 cases and 73,000 deaths). Due to treatment cost savings, the investment implies net benefits of approximately US dollars 180 billion (1955 net present value), even without incorporating the intangible costs of suffering and death and of averted fear. Retrospectively, the U.S. investment in polio vaccination represents a highly valuable, cost-saving public health program. Observed changes in the cost-effectiveness ratio estimates over time suggest the need for living economic models for interventions that appropriately change with time. This article also demonstrates that estimates of cost-effectiveness ratios at any single time point may fail to adequately consider the context of the investment made to date and the importance of population and other dynamics, and shows the importance of dynamic modeling.