Should the US have locked heaven��s door?

This paper examines the economic impact of the second great immigration wave (1945–2000) on the US economy. Our analysis relies on a computable general equilibrium model combining the major interactions between immigrants and natives (labor market impact, fiscal impact, capital deepening, endogenous education, endogenous inequality). Contrary to recent studies, we show that immigration induced important net gains and small redistributive effects among natives. According to our simulations, the postwar US immigration is beneficial for all natives cohorts and all skill groups. Nevertheless, the gains would have been larger if the US had conducted a more selective immigration policy.     

Immigrant mothers’ preferences for children’s sexes: A register-based study of fertility behaviour in Norway

Parental sex preferences have been documented in many native populations, but much less evidence is available on immigrants’ preferences for the sexes of their children. Using high-quality longitudinal register data from Norway, a country with a recent immigration history, we estimate hazards regression models of third birth risks by the sex composition of the first two children. A central question in the extant literature is whether the sex preferences of immigrant mothers match those observed in their country of origin, or if cultural adaption to local conditions is more important. Our analyses indicate that the sex preferences of immigrants generally match those previously documented for their native population, especially in the case of son preferences. The pattern of sex preferences is unmodified by the mother’s exposure to the host society. In sum, our evidence generally supports theories emphasizing cultural persistence in preferences, rather than theories of adaption or immigrant selectivity.     

Happiness functions with preference interdependence and heterogeneity: the case of altruism within the family

This study investigates the prevalence and extent of altruism by examining the relationship between parents’ and their adult children’s subjective well-being in a data set extracted from the German Socio-Economic Panel. To segregate the share of parents with altruistic preferences from those who are selfish, we estimate a finite mixture regression model. We control for various sources of potential bias by taking advantage of the data’s panel structure. To validate our modeling approach, we show that predicted altruists indeed make higher average transfer payments.      

Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.     

Immigration and Natives’ Attitudes towards the Welfare State: Evidence from the European Social Survey

Does immigration reduce natives’ support for the welfare state? Evidence from the European Social Survey (2002/2003) suggests a more qualified relation. For Europe as a whole, there is only weak evidence of a negative association between the perceived presence of immigrants and natives’ support for the welfare state. However, this weak average relationship masks considerable heterogeneity across countries. We distinguish two channels through which immigration could affect natives’ support for the welfare state: a pure dislike of immigrants and concerns about the economic consequences of immigration. We find that natives who hold both negative views react much more negatively to a given perceived share of immigrants than natives who hold neither view. However, there is no clear pattern concerning the relative importance of the two channels. Finally, we find that natives who hold either of these negative views of immigrants tend to be less supportive of the welfare state independently of the perceived presence of immigrants.     

Migration between India and Pakistan, 1951–61

A critical evaluation of the available data on migration between India and Pakistan in the 1951-61 decade leads to the conclusion that there was a substantial net migration of Pakistan-born persons into India, but only a negligible net migration of India-born persons into Pakistan. Annual administrative statistics published by the Indian Government suggest an immigration from Pakistan of the order of 1.16 to 1.32 million. More importantly, birthplace data from the Indian censuses indicate a net intercensal immigration of Pakistan-born persons amounting to 1.19 to 1.34 million, depending on the assumed level of mortality. The Pakistani census data on the India-born show no net influx from India during 1951-61. Intercensal growth rates for the populations of different religious faiths in Pakistan are consistent with the estimates of net immigration into India. The migrants and the survivors of their progeny are estimated to represent a net gain of about 1.68 million by India and to account for no more than 2.2 per cent of the total population growth in India during 1951-61.     

Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations

Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Immigration and native migration in New York City, 1985–1990

The 1990 Public Use Micro Sample is used to analyze the relationship between immigration and outmigration of the native born in New York City. The study population is limited to native born males who lived in the five boroughs in 1985. The relationship between immigration and the probability of various kinds of moves is assessed using logistic regression. Results suggest that immigration has an insignificant effect on migratory behavior, with the exception of inter-borough migration. Unlike prior work, this study examines a single metro area, and does not limit itself to inter-state migration. These results are consistent with more recent work (Card 2001; Kritz et al. 2001), which has failed to find a positive labor market level effect of immigration on native migratory behavior. The inter-borough finding is consistent with the occurrence of voluntary residential segregation within the city, in which the native born move away from areas of immigrant concentration but do not leave the labor market, yet there is no direct evidence that this process occurred.     

Lifetime income redistribution by social security

This paper discusses the redistributive impact of the Dutch social security system on lifetime basis. Net benefits appear to be positive for the birth generations up to 1960. Social insurances show a declining net benefit, whereas for occupational pensions the reverse holds. It is generally assumed that flat-rated social security schemes are more redistributive ones than wage-related schemes. However, the Dutch social security system shows that on a lifetime basis the redistributive impact of flat-rated general insurances does not necessarily largely differ from the wage-related employee insurances. Social assistance schemes result in a very large income redistribution in view of the small amounts involved. Social insurances and social assistance schemes have an income equalizing effect. On the contrary, occupational pensions increase income inequality.The author would like to acknowledge gratefully the funding provided by the Research Program for Population Studies of the Dutch Scientific Organization NWO (grant no. 18.051). Helpful comments from Pierre Pestieau and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged.     

An Indicator Framework for Linking Historic Preservation and Community Economic Development

This paper contributes to the immigration literature by generating two unique non-economic quality of life (QOL) indices and testing their role on recent migration patterns. Applying the generated QOL indices in conjunction with four independent welfare measures to an augmented gravity model of immigration, this paper finds an insignificant relationship between the six non-economic QOL measures and immigration flows for a panel of 16 OECD countries from 1991 to 2000. However, the results suggest that other factors such as the stock of immigrants from the source country already living in the OECD destination country, population size, relative incomes, and geographic factors all significantly drive the flow of immigration for the sample tested.     

From Rags to Riches? Immigration and Poverty in Spain

This article for first time explores the relationship between immigration and poverty in Spain. Using recent Spanish household surveys, it is found, first, that both moderate and severe poverty are more acute among immigrants than among nationals and social transfers play no substantial role in reducing monetary deprivation in the case of foreign-born population; in the second place, we perform an econometric analysis that shows that the different poverty risk faced by local and immigrant households is not driven by differences in basic household and demographic characteristics.     

U.S. foreign economic policy and illegal immigration

It is often suggested that the most effective policy for the United States, if it wishes to curtail illegal immigration from nearby countries, is to manipulate foreign economic instruments to support their economic development. The Reagan administration's Caribbean Basin Initiative is responsive to this approach in its proposals for increased aid and trade and tax preferences for beneficiary countries. Analysis of U.S. trade, investment, and aid relations with migrant-sending countries leads to the conclusion that these preferences could have a marginal impact on job creation in these countries, but there is no assurance that a modest rise in economic opportunity will lead to a decrease in emigration in the foreseeable future. In addition, preferential trade and tax treatment for some countries involves a departure from U.S. policy and would lead to a clamor for equal treatment by other countries.     

A macroeconometric disequilibrium analysis of current and future migration from Eastern Europe into West Germany

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of current and future immigration flows on major macroeconomic variables of the West German economy. The analysis is based on a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for the West German economy. This model is extended until 1995 and used for several simulation experiments. Special attention is given to the notion that the effects of immigration are regime-specific, i.e., they depend on the type of disequilibrium prevailing on the goods and labor market.We are grateful for helpful comments made by Michael Burda, Gustav Heidbrink, Werner Smolny and three anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Unskilled labor and wage determination: an empirical investigation for Germany

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on native wage impacts of immigration. I propose a mobile-fixed factor distinction as a framework in which to think about the differential impact of immigration on various labor market groups. Skilled workers are treated as a fixed factor of production since the strong reliance on skill certification in Germany inhibits mobility and shelters from competition. Unskilled workers, in contrast, receive competitive wages. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–1989 I estimate panel wage regressions for groups of workers separated by skill certification. I find that university graduates‘ wages increase, and the wages of workers without postsecondary degree decrease, as the industry share of unskilled workers increases. The effect for apprentices is ambiguous. JEL classification: F22, J31 Received January 19, 1995 / Accepted August 14, 1995     

The Impact of Social Expenditure on Attitudes Towards Immigration in Europe

There is a growing body of literature dealing with the causes behind anti-immigrant sentiment and xenophobia. Based on the literature on the fiscal burden model, this paper contends that the differences in attitudes toward immigration, between low and high statuses, can be explained by the size of the welfare state. We argue that the impact of socio-economic status on attitudes toward immigration is larger in countries where social expenditure is high. Since a potential increase in the number of welfare recipients due to new immigrants might lead to a reduction in per capita transfers, low-income individuals in these countries are expected to be more concerned about the effect of immigration on social benefits. Using multilevel models and data from the European Social Survey we have found that while the effect of socio-economic status on attitudes toward immigration is positive there is a great deal of variation between countries. The difference in attitudes between high and low socio-economic statuses increases as social expenditure increases. Moreover, increases of social expenditure in the short run increases anti-immigrant sentiment as it raises concerns about the impact of immigration on welfare services.     

Gendering family composition: Sex preferences for children and childbearing behavior in the Nordic countries

It has been argued that a society's gender system may influence parents' sex preferences for children. If this is true, one should expect to find no evidence of such preferences in countries with a high level of gender equality. In this article, we exploit data from population registers from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden to examine continuities and changes in parental sex preferences in the Nordic countries during the past three to four decades. First, we do not observe an effect of the sex of the first born child on second-birth risks. Second, we detect a distinct preference for at least one child of each sex among parents of two children. For third births, Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish parents seem to develop a preference for having a daughter, while Finns exhibit a significant preference for having a son. These findings show that modernization and more equal opportunities for women and men do not necessarily lead to parental gender indifference. On the contrary, they may even result in new sex preferences.     

性别偏好如何影响家庭生育数量?——来自中国城市家庭的实证研究

家庭生育数量会受到性别偏好的影响,但影响方向和作用机制还未达成共识。文章利用全国城市青年调查数据,对性别偏好和家庭生育数量之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,性别偏好并不等同于男孩偏好,其内容呈现出多元化特点;无性别偏好在城市已婚已育青年中所占比重最高。不同性别偏好对家庭生育数量的作用方向和强度有所差异:性别数量双偏好会显著提升家庭生育数量;与无性别偏好相比较,单性别偏好也会提升家庭生育数量,但女孩偏好对家庭生育数量的提升作用更强也更显著。     

Women’s Political Empowerment and Investments in Primary Schooling in India

Using a national district-level dataset of India composed of information on investments in primary schooling [data from the District Information Survey for Education (DISE, 2007/8)] and information on demographic characteristics of elected officials [data from the Election Commission of India (ECI, 2000/04)], we examined the relationship between women’s representation in State Legislative Assembly (SLA) seats and district-level investments in primary schooling. We used OLS regressions adjusting for confounders and spatial autocorrelation, and estimated separate models for North and South India. Women’s representation in general SLA seats typically was negatively associated with investments in primary-school amenities and teachers; women’s representation in SLA seats reserved for under-represented minorities, i.e., scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, typically was positively associated with investments in primary schooling, especially in areas addressing the basic needs of poor children. Women legislators’ gender and caste identities may shape their decisions about redistributive educational policies.     

An American in Berlin: reflections on the German demographic challenge, immigration, and national identity

The “German Demographic Challenge”—an aging society, low birth rates, a falling population size, and a shrinking working-age population—also affects less tangible facets of Germany’s future because these issues may have implications for how Germans see themselves and how they define themselves as a nation-state. This paper explores the complex relationships between national identity, migration, and other population processes in the German context. One consequence of the demographic challenge, acting in concert with immigration, is that the German population will become more diverse over time. Perhaps the more difficult challenge will be how Germany comes to terms with itself given the population changes it will experience.     

Sex preferences for children in Ghana: the influence of educational attainment

Education influences aspects of demographic behaviour and outcomes including a child sex preference. Sex preferences of children have been studied in different societies because of its associated social and demographic implications. Using the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, we examined the association between educational attainment and sex preferences of children. Findings from the study indicated that there is preference for sons (26.1%) compared to daughters (17.4%). At higher levels of education, there is a higher likelihood for no preference for a sex of a child. Among the characteristics of respondents that influenced sex preferences are: gender, lineage, religion, occupation and desired family size. Acquisition of knowledge through education to some extent alter fertility preferences and hence the need to motivate individuals to attain some level of education.