国外贷援款项目绩效审计的探索与思考

绩效审计是现代审计的发展趋势,是我国未来审计工作的发展方向。分析国外贷援款绩效审计开展的必要性、存在的问题、模式、途径等可以进一步提高外资项目审计质量,同时有利于探索我国绩效审计的新路子,从而更好地实现审计为宏观经济发展服务的目标。     

Boundedly rational expected utility theory

We build a satisficing model of choice under risk which embeds Expected Utility Theory (EUT) into a boundedly rational deliberation process. The decision maker accumulates evidence for and against alternative options by repeatedly sampling from her underlying set of EU preferences until the evidence favouring one option satisfies her desired level of confidence. Despite its EUT core, the model produces patterns of behaviour that violate standard EUT axioms, while at the same time capturing systematic relationships between choice probabilities, response times and confidence judgments, which are beyond the scope of theories that do not take deliberation into account.

     

The utility of gambling

A tiny utility of gambling is appended to an expected utility model for a risk-averse individual. It is shown that the model can explain small payoff gambles, large prize lotteries, and patterns of risk-seeking in the experimental evidence that are puzzling from the viewpoint of standard theory. At the same time, the model maintains expected utility theory's ability to explain insurance purchase, portfolio diversification, and other risk-averting behavior. The tiny utility of gambling could equally well be appended to models of risky choice other than the expected utility model.     

Victim Evaluations of Face-to-Face Restorative Justice Conferences: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis

One major goal of face-to-face restorative justice (RJ) is to help heal the psychological harm suffered by crime victims ( Braithwaite, 2002 ). Substantial evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) has shown that this can be accomplished ( Strang, 2002 ) and more trials are underway ( Sherman & Strang, 2004 ). These outcomes are even more clearly, if less rigorously, demonstrated through retrospective interviews of victims about their feelings before and after RJ took place. We review the responses of victims ( N = 210) who participated in trials in Canberra (Australia) and in London, Thames Valley, and Northumbria (UK). Despite substantial variations in offense types, social contexts, nation and race, before-after changes revealed by qualitative and quantitative data are all in the same beneficial direction.     

Poverty, inequality, and development: A distributional approach

Economists have concentrated on aggregate economic growth to measure countries' development progress and in recent years have also considered income distribution performance. This paper reverses the conventional emphasis by placing income distribution at the forefront. I examine what is known about the distributions of income and poverty in the developing countries of the world and probe the correlations between poverty, inequality, and development. I explore the main sources of inequality and the extent to which individual countries have managed to alleviate poverty and reduce inequality in the course of economic growth. Employing evidence from case studies of six developing nations. I suggest some explanations for differing patterns of development and call for development planning founded on a firm commitment to helping the poor.     

空间与秩序：明清以来鄂东南地区的村落、祠堂与家族社会

鄂东南地区聚族而居的村落形态既受当地山区丘陵自然环境的影响,更是自宋以后,特别是明清以来外来移民不断迁入定居、繁衍的结果。而且移入先后的不同导致村落形成和扩散方式的差异,进而在一定区域内形成一姓数村、团状聚居和一娃一村,分散聚居等多种聚居模式。这种家族式聚居的村落形态为宗族的组织化管理提供了有利的生存土壤。来自江西等宗法文化较浓厚地区移民的迁入,以及不同族群为着生存空间的竞争,导致鄂东南地区在清代前期进入普遍的移民家族的组织化和制度化进程。以宗祠——支祠——家祠为层级的祠堂建筑格局与家族聚居区——自然村落——单个家庭的聚落形态相对应,体现出建筑格局与家族结构在某种程度上的契合。其中与自然村落相关联的支祠(鄂东南称之为祖堂、宗屋、公屋)更是构成所在村落的公共空间,并成为族人祭祀、娱乐、教育、生产等公共生活的核心,地理空间与血缘家族空间的重叠、建筑的象征功能与宗法组织的实际运作共同维系着清代以来鄂东南地区以家族为特征的乡村生产、生活秩序。     

Restructuring Australian retirement incomes: Implications of changing work and retirement patterns

Work and retirement patterns among older Australian women and men are changing. In this paper, the interactions between these patterns and social security policies are contrasted with the desirable direction of work and retirement later in life. The change in Australia's retirement incomes system towards the "three pillar model" described by the World Bank poses particular issues for late life employment and retirement, especially for older women.     

The impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from CGE models

In this paper we carry out a systematic review of the evidence from CGE models regarding the effect of trade liberalisation on income inequality and poverty in developing countries. The evidence suggests quite strongly that trade liberalisation tends to reduce poverty, but is more likely to increase inequality than reduce it; however, the predicted effects are relatively small. Variation in the size and direction of effects can be explained by the choice of outcome measure, the fiscal response to liberalisation, the type of CGE model, and certain country characteristics – but not the method used to link the CGE model to the distribution of income.     

走向后现代的美国家庭：理论分歧与经验研究

社会的发展与家庭模式的变迁在美国一直是备受关注的领域。本文从理论上追溯了功能主义者对现代家庭理想模式的建构,及其对美国家庭研究的影响,分析了美国上世纪90年代以来有关家庭的研究,从离婚、单亲家庭、非婚同居、同性婚姻等方面探讨后现代背景中美国家庭模式的巨大变迁。经验的事实表明,在美国,现代家庭模式已失去了现实中的主导地位,而且现代婚姻家庭制度的基础也受到了强烈的挑战。女性主义者提出了“后现代家庭”的新概念,学者们也从理论上思考这个时代家庭的走向。美国家庭模式变迁的经验成果与理论探讨为我们研究全球化时代中国婚姻家庭的变迁提供了有益的参考。     

Catastrophic responses to catastrophic risks

Socializing risks from catastrophic losses is difficult even in an ideal political environment, owing to different estimates of low probability risks, solvency constraints, dangers of moral hazard, and high loss correlation. However, these intrinsic contracting problems do not justify invalidating ordinary insurance contracts or forcing insurers to cover catastrophic losses. Yet, political pressures forcing insurance subsidies now induce inefficient decisions in siting and construction, with high expected social losses. Ordinary contract solutions are always imperfect, but superior to the regulatory maze. Unfortunately, patterns of legislation and court decisions are running in the wrong direction.     

Is there a liquidity effect? An investigation using the Kalman filter

We test for a liquidity effect by utilizing a Kalman filter and find that monetary innovations lowered interest rates in 51 out of the 120 quarters in our sample. This implies that the recent empirical consensus of no liquidity effect has resulted from the implicit assumption that monetary innovations always impact interest rates in the same direction, rather than from an absence of a liquidity effect in the data (JEL E4).     

A lonely society? Loneliness and liquid modernity in Australia

This paper reviews recent studies of loneliness in order to assess whether it is becoming endemic in Australian society. It develops the idea that loneliness is an embedded social structural feature of contemporary Australian life likely to affect people through the life course, creating psychological stress, ill health and social dysfunction. Zygmunt Bauman's writing on liquid modernity is used to trace a sequence of less binding social bonds from the community the workplace, intimate relationships, friendship and kinship that may account for a more generalised distribution of loneliness. Empirical evidence from recent national surveys in Australia demonstrates how Bauman's gloomy prognosis is particularly applicable in Australia. The paper argues that it has been invisible as a social issue until recently, but that its scope and scale have grown such that robust policy initiatives are now warranted. It argues that Australia's gendered pattern of loneliness indicates that Bauman's broad theory of liquid modernity must be mediated by several factors relating to national cultures, historic patterns of family formation, and the gender role distribution in the creation and maintenance of social bonds.     

The cost‐effectiveness of UK parenting programmes for preventing children's behaviour problems – a review of the evidence

Parenting programmes are widely used in the UK, promoted in policy documents as a cost‐effective way for children's services to address behaviour problems and thereby the longer‐term costs associated with conduct disorders, particularly antisocial behaviour and criminality. To explore whether these programmes are a cost‐effective component of family intervention, this paper examines evidence from cost‐effectiveness studies based on randomized controlled trials, modelling studies estimating longer‐term costs and outcomes, and studies estimating costs of UK parenting programmes, including evidence from routine practice. Findings indicate that parenting programmes have the potential to be cost‐saving in the long term; however, gaps in the evidence include: lack of follow‐up of families who drop out of programmes, absence of control groups in longer‐term follow‐ups, and little information about costs and effects of programmes in routine practice. The size of savings resulting from implementation of effective parenting programmes will depend on the extent to which families likely to be most costly to society attend and experience lasting benefit.     

Child welfare workers who are exhausted yet satisfied with their jobs: how do they do it?

In response to a study of Canadian child welfare workers that unexpectedly found participants scoring high on a measure of emotional exhaustion (burnout) and, at the same time, high on overall job satisfaction, this paper reviews research that has investigated these constructs in the social work literature as well as in selected studies from sociology, social psychology, management and women’s studies. The review reveals that some previous studies also report the coexistence of high levels of emotional exhaustion and strong job satisfaction in child welfare and social worker samples. Several studies have suggested that individual characteristics, including finding reward in helping others, having a commitment to the mandate of child welfare and believing that one’s labour is ‘making a difference’, contribute to satisfaction with child welfare work in spite of work overload and emotional exhaustion. Attributions regarding causes of exhaustion, coping strategies and goal orientation may also attenuate the expected negative effects of emotional exhaustion. Considerable evidence supports the positive influence of variables organizational managers can control, including job autonomy, supportive supervisors, workload, promotional opportunities and perception of personal safety. The degree to which this phenomenon is associated with female socialization and the ‘ethic of care’ underlying social work is discussed. Implications for child welfare research, practice and policy are offered.     

The Parent's Capacity to Treat the Child as a Psychological Agent: Constructs, Measures and Implications for Developmental Psychopathology

Recent studies of the relationship between parenting and child development have included a focus on the parent's capacity to treat the child as a psychological agent. Several constructs have been developed to refer to this capacity, for example maternal mind-mindedness, reflective functioning, and parental mentalizing. In this review article, we compare and contrast different constructs from diverse theoretical backgrounds that have been developed to operationalize parental mentalizing. We examine the empirical evidence to date in support of each of the constructs and review the relevant measures associated with each construct. Next, we discuss the possibility that these apparently diverse constructs may tap into the same underlying neurobiological socio-cognitive system. We conclude by proposing a testable model for describing the links between parental mentalization, the development of mentalizing in children, and child psychopathology.     

New challenges for the welfare state: The emergence of youth unemployment regimes in Europe?

In this article we discuss the emergence of ‘youth unemployment regimes’ in Europe, that is, a set of coherent measures and policies aimed at providing state responses to the problem of unemployment and, more specifically, youth unemployment. We classify these measures and policies along two main dimensions: unemployment regulations and labour market regulations. Using original data, we show how seven European countries locate on these two dimensions as well as within the conceptual space resulting from the combination of the two dimensions. Our findings show cross‐national variations that do not fit the traditional typologies of comparative welfare studies. At the same time, however, the findings allow for reflecting upon possible patterns of convergence across European countries. In particular, we show some important similarities in terms of flexible labour market regulations. In this regard, the recent years have witnessed a trend towards a flexibilisation of the labour market, regardless of the prevailing welfare regime.     

UK macroeconomic volatility: Historical evidence over seven centuries

Breaking ground from all previous studies, we estimate a time-varying Vector Autoregression model that examines the time-period 1270–2016 — the entire economic history of the U.K. Focusing on permanent and transitory shocks in the economy, we study the fluctuation in conditional volatilities and time-varying long-run responses of output growth and inflation. Unlike all previous studies that use time invariant linear models, our approach reveals that the pre 1600 period is a turbulent economic period of high volatility that is only repeated in the 20th century. The repeating patterns in the conditional volatilities follow from aggregate supply shocks, while most of the inflation responses follow from aggregate demand shocks. Thus, we uncover that despite the technological growth and the various changes in the structure of the U.K. economy in the last century, the recurring patterns call for an examination of the true impact of the various policies on the economy.     

Holy Grail or inflated expectations? The success and failure of integrated policy strategies

Governments and international organizations increasingly pursue the development of integrated policy strategies to govern persistent societal problems that crosscut the boundaries of traditional jurisdictions. In spite of the rising popularity of such integrated strategies, little is known about their effects. Although it is generally assumed that integrated strategies result in better outcomes, the evidence base to support this claim is sparse. This is not to say that no attempts to study the relationship between integrated strategies and policy outcomes have been undertaken at all; this paper presents a research synthesis of the fragmented evidence base. Eligible studies are interpreted and discussed by using a heuristic that distinguishes between programmatic and political success and failure. Apart from synthesizing the impacts that integrated strategies have had, the paper reflects on associated explanatory conditions and methodological approaches that have been used. The review almost exclusively finds reports of failure and constraining conditions. At the same time, methodological approaches are found to be largely unconvincing and considerable research gaps remain. The paper, therefore, ends with a nuanced answer to the question of whether integrated strategies are worth pursuing and sets out various avenues for further research.     

Associations between attitudes towards scientific misconduct and self-reported behavior

We investigate the relationship between doctoral students’ attitudes towards scientific misconduct and their self-reported behavior. 203 questionnaires were distributed to doctoral candidates at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo 2016/2017. The response rate was 74%. The results show a correlation between attitudes towards misconduct and self-reported problematic behaviors among doctoral students in biomedicine. The four most common reported misbehaviors are adding author(s) who did not qualify for authorship (17.9%), collecting more data after seeing that the results were almost statistically significant (11.8%), turning a blind eye to colleagues’ use of flawed data or questionable interpretation of data (11.2%), and reporting an unexpected finding as having been hypothesized from the start (10.5%). We find correlations between scientific misbehavior and the location of undergraduate studies and whether the respondents have had science ethics lectures previously. The study provides evidence for the concurrent validity of the two instruments used to measure attitudes and behavior, i.e. the Kalichman scale and the Research Misbehavior Severity Score (RMSS). Although the direction of causality between attitudes and misbehavior cannot be determined in this study the correlation between the two indicates that it can be important to engender the right attitudes in early career researchers.