Bargaining over family size: The determinants of fertility in Brazil

Understanding how households make fertility decisions is important to implementing effective policy to slow population growth. Most empirical studies of this decision are based on household models in which men and women are assumed to act as if they have the same preferences for the number of children. However, if men and women have different preferences regarding fertility and are more likely to assert their own preferences as their bargaining power in the household increases, policies to lower fertility rates may be more effectively targeted toward one spouse or the other. In this paper, we test the relevance of the single preferences model by investigating whether men and women's nonwage incomes have the same effects on the number of children in the household. We find that while increases in both the man and woman's nonwage income lower the number of children in the household, an equivalent increase in the woman's income has a significantly stronger effect than the man's. In addition, we find that increases in women's nonwage transfer income have the strongest effects on the fertility decisions of women with low levels of education. The most important policy implication of our results is that policies aimed at increasing the incomes of the least-educated women will be the most effective in lowering fertility rates.     

Economic determinants of family size in West Africa

The economic theory of fertility postulates that income and prices, broadly defined, are important determinants of family size. What follows is an attempt to test this theory against the behavior of 717 predominantly urban households in Sierra Leone. Husband's education is used as a proxy for income; the "price" of a child is accounted for by wife's education and wife's wage rate. Other important variables are wife's age, a measure of child "quality," wife's age at first birth, and child mortality. The findings of the study tend to lend support to the economic theory of fertility but contain certain peculiarities which indicate a need for further research.     

Purchased child care,optimal family size and mother's employment Theory and econometric analysis

The paper develops a model of family size decisions in which couples choose explicitly a combination of mother's time and purchased childcare (e.g. childminders, nannies) for the care and rearing of children. The theoretical model implies that the impact of the mother's wage on her completed fertility varies with the market price of childcare, and that this effect increases (becoming less negative or more positive) with the level of her wage. Econometric analysis of British micro-data confirms the main predictions of the model.I am grateful to Robert E. Wright for research assistance, and to the Economic and Social Research Council for supporting this research as part of the research programme Income Inequality, Gender and Demographic Differentials. Financial support from the Nuffield Foundation grant no. PT/9, Family Formation and Employment Activity is also gratefully acknowledged.     

Household structure and child nutrition: A reinterpretation of income and mother's education

Two frequently used predictors of child malnutrition are family income and mother's education. Despite their common sense rationale, they pose difficult and perhaps intractable problems of measurement and conceptualization. This paper proposes to substitute the concepts of family and maternal differentiation for these traditionally used indicators. Differentiation is defined as the capacity of the individual or group to process a diversity of information categories. Using data from a recent survey of households in Panama, indicators of this concept were constructed at the family and at the maternal levels using principal component analysis. These are shown to predict a range of indicators of childrens' nutritional status when appropriate control variables are included in the regression analysis. The same analysis was then repeated with income and mother's education replacing the differentiation measures. The results support our claim that the differentiation indicators are superior, and we argue that an even more important reason for using them is that they open the door to a long-term research program that is theoretically consistent and potentially cumulative.     

A model of the determinants in married women of sterilization method choice

A model for predicting sterilization method selection is constructed on the basis of hypotheses about 1. the relationship between the fertility termination, sterilization, and method selection decisions and 2. the influence of substantive, processual, and contextual factors in those decisions. The model is found to have an acceptably good fit to data from almost five hundred women in married couples selecting either tubal ligation or vasectomy. A number of interesting dynamic pathways leading to method selection are observed. Some weaknesses in the model are discussed. It is desirable that further confirmation and elaboration of the model using longitudinal and husband-wife data be undertaken.This paper is based on a study funded by the National Institutes of Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research, Grant Number 13459.     

The effects of child health on marital status and family structure

The purpose of this paper is to provide evidence on the effect of child health on marital stability and family structure in an economic framework. We use the 1988 National Health Interview Survey's Child Health Supplement, with a sample of about 9,000 families, to test whether having an unhealthy child decreases the mother's chance of being married and whether it increases her chance of living in an extended family. Using two different measures of child health, we find that having an unhealthy child decreases the mother's likelihood of being married. Our results imply that children in poor health are more likely to face obstacles beyond their illness because they also are more likely to suffer the consequences of poverty and the poor schooling outcomes that result from being raised in a female-headed household. The only mitigating factor is that unhealthy white children are more likely than their healthy counterparts to be living in an extended family.     

The choice of factor mobility in a dynamic world

This paper compares the steady-state welfare implications of opening a two-country overlapping-generations world to international labor or capital mobility. By capturing the dual nature of labor mobility through the effect of migrants' savings on capital formation, this dynamic setting recovers the asymmetry between capital and labor denied to them in the existing static literature. It is shown that the optimal choice of factor mobility from a national viewpoint depends on the state of the economy with respect to the Golden Rule and on migrants' average savings ratio with respect to that of non-migrants.I would like to thank anonymous referees for useful comments.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

The Outcasts: a family romance

The following short impression is meant to be neither academic nor comprehensive. It is, rather, just that-an impression, a series of floating thoughts on a film that sticks in the mind.     

An analysis of the determinants of family planning volunteer workers' performance in Iloilo City

This report analyzes data from a survey of 106 Barangay (village) Service Point Officers (BSPOs) associated with the City Population Office and 106 Barangay Health Workers (BHWs) associated with the City Health Office to compare the family planning (FP) service delivery performance of these voluntary workers in Iloilo City in the Philippines and to quantify the effects of the factors which influence their performance. Both the BSPOs and the BHWs assist in the delivery of health and FP services at the grassroots level. The survey data were supplemented with interviews with key informants, focus group discussions with married couples of reproductive age, clinic records, and observations of the BSPOs and BHWs at work. The analysis compared the sociodemographic characteristics of the two groups; the recruitment procedures followed (if any); FP training; actual FP-related work; involvement in community organizing; incentives received; supervision of the volunteers; attitude towards their work; FP knowledge, attitude, and practice; time allocated to FP activities; number of clients served; and number of clients counseled. Correlation analysis of factors influencing volunteer performance indicated that FP training had the largest positive influence on FP activities. The output of the workers was also positively affected by the amount of time spend in FP activities and by their involvement in community organizing. The commitment of the workers had a significant impact on the number of clients they resupplied with contraceptives. Variation in the FP performances of the two groups was caused by the fact that delivery of FP services is a major role of the BSPOs and only one of many responsibilities of the BHWs. These findings reinforce the planned restructuring of Iloilo City's FP program which would once again designate the Population Office as the lead agency. Increasing the knowledge of these volunteers about the side effects and contraindications of various methods should have a positive effect on continuation rates. Recruitment of volunteers should be based on the individual's level of interest and commitment.     

Childhood family structure and young adult behaviors

This paper examines a wide variety of forms, and full histories, of family structure to test existing theories of family influences and identify needs for new theories. The focus is on links between childhood family structure and both completed schooling and risk of a nonmarital birth. Using a 27-year span of panel (PSID) data for U.S. children, we find that: (a) change is stressful, (b) timing during childhood is relevant, (c) adults other than parents are important, and (d) two more recently studied family structures (mother-with-grandparent(s) and mother-with-stepfather) do not fit the molds of existing theories. The findings suggest that new theories should consider allocation of resources and reasons people group into family structures. Received: 11 September 1998/Accepted: 27 March 2000     

The determinants of fertility in rural Peru: Program effects in the early years of the national family planning program

Using data from the 1991 Peru Demographic Health Survey, a linked Situation Analysis, and a unique region-level data set, this paper examines the determinants of fertility in rural Peru before and after the 1985 enactment of its National Policy on Population. The empirical framework combines a model of the timing and spacing of conceptions with a model of the timing of the placement of family planning services in communities in order to control for non-random placement of services. Results show the program helped reduce fertility post 1985. The magnitude of the effects is quantified with simulations. All correspondence to David Guilkey.We thank the editor and two referees for detailed comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Funding support for this project was provided by the MEASURE Evaluation Project under a Cooperative Agreement between the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Carolina Population Center (Number HRN-A-00-97-0018-00). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not the sponsoring agency. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Toward a general framework of family structure: A review of theory-based empirical research

For slightly more than a century, psychologists, sociologists, demographers, and others have been studying family structure. The enterprise has been repeatedly characterized as having strong empirical roots, but little theory to nurture it and help it develop. Recently, articles have been published calling for the formalization of family demography, which we define as the discipline devoted to the study of family structure. This paper has the following purposes: (1) To develop a general taxonomy of family structure that unites researchers from several disciplines under one framework; (2) To review important methodological and measurement problems involved in the study of family structure; and (3) To review the recent theory-based empirical literature. We conclude with an assessment of the state-of-the-enterprise.This research was supported in part by a junior faculty research fellowship from the University of Oklahoma to the first author. The Carolina Population Center and the University of North Carolina Department of Psychology provided research and library assistance. Special thanks are extended to Thomas Berndt, George Holden, J. Richard Udry, and several anonymous reviewers who read and commented on earlier drafts of this article.     

The economic determinants of ethnic assimilation

A human capital model is developed that distinguishes between ethnic-specific skills (applicable only to a specific indigenous or immigrant group) and shared or general skills. An important determinant of assimilation is the extent to which these two forms of human capital are complements, thus promoting both assimilation and ethnic persistence, or anti-complements, promoting either assimilation or ethnic retention but not both. Implications of the model are developed for various applications including intermarriage, the effects of group size, language and religion as a basis for ethnic mergers, and the transfer society as a potential barrier to assimilation.

An analysis of the size of the family household and family structure in China]

Since 1949, great social and economic changes have taken place in China. The entire economic structure and social relations are no longer the way they used to be. These changes have also had a strong impact on the size of family households and family structure. Major changes are summarized as follows: (1) The size of the present family household has been greatly reduced from its earlier size. The main reason for this reduction in size is the change of the social system. Under the new social system, the natural population growth rate and family structure have shown the greatest change from the past. (2) The major change in family structure is that small families have replaced the traditional large families. Under the large family system, several generations may stay together as one household, and brothers do not divide the large family even after they are married. Under the small family system, a household is normally limited to the parents and their children. With the gradual disappearance of large families, small families are increasing rapidly. Some households with three generations living together are still in existence, and the young and the old may support each other in their daily life. Both in cities and in rural areas, the traditional custom of respecting one's old parents still exists. There must be a value and necessity for the existence of this particular kind of family structure.     

Desired family size and its determinants among urban Nigerian women: A two-stage analysis

This paper proposes and carries out a two-stage analysis of the determinants of desired family size, using data gathered from a sample of women in the city of Ilorin, Nigeria. The analysis first focuses on differences between women who report numerical family size desires and those who report nonnumerical desires. Findings suggest that there are important differences between these two groups, but there is little variation in the actual number reported by those expressing numerical desires. Implications of these findings for survey design are discussed. In particular, the practice of forcing numerical responses by instructing interviewers to probe when women report nonnumerical desires is questioned.     

The economic measurement and determinants of diversity

This paper has a 2-fold objective: (1) To introduce a measure that would be of general applicability in measuring diversity in different institutions. (2) To identify the determinants of diversity in child-care centers and, in particular, to examine whether the for-profit sector is less diverse than the not-for-profit sector in the child-care industry as the statistics suggest. Using our measure, we isolate factors that significantly influence diversity by using an economic model that makes diversity a decision variable of a firm. Two measures of diversity are suggested: absolute diversity and relative diversity (diversity relative to the surrounding community). To select a suitable index, the Herfindahl measure of concentration is considered relative to several suitable ecological indices measuring species diversity, and found to be virtually identical to such indices. Thus theH-index is used in both absolute and relative measures. Empirical estimation of both absolute and relative diversity equations use probability models and isolate factors that significantly influence both absolute diversity of child-care centers as well as their diversity relative to their respective counties. The data used is the recently released Profile of Child-Care Settings collected by the Mathematica Policy Research.     

The determinants of breast-feeding in sri lanka

Breast-feeding is the focus of rapidly growing interest. Research on the determinants of breast-feeding is only beginning. The research in this paper is based on World Fertility Survey data for Sri Lanka. We develop what we believe to be an appropriate probit model and find that there are significant socioeconomic factors that influence breast-feeding, in addition to the demographic factors focused upon in the literature. Moreover, some of them have clear policy implications, which are elaborated herein with respect to labor force, education, family planning and internal migration policies. In the course of the paper we also address a number of generally neglected statistical issues that should be considered in analyzing the determinants of breastfeeding, including problems resulting from digit preference or age heaping, the need to use dichotomous dependent variables, unavoidable truncation biases in the basic data, and structural shifts in the determinants of breastfeeding at different durations.