近期巴基斯坦形势演变及其对中国影响

最近,巴基斯坦国内政局出现了明显动荡,从绑架人质案到"红色清真寺"事件,暴力恐怖活动层出不穷.当前巴基斯坦国内局势的发展趋势;巴基斯坦局势的演变将对中国新疆产生什么样的影响.本文将围绕上述问题,分析其中背景、原因及其影响.     

近卫文麿与第一次新党运动述略

"二·二六"事变后日本国内政局混乱,近卫文唐为抑制军部、控制政局,实现内政、外交的一元化和政战两略之统一,主张必须创建"自己的政党".第一次近卫内阁成立后,近卫在发动侵华战争、强化国内法西斯统制的同时,联合各党派团体开展了新党运动.本文对近卫与第一次新党运动进行全面综合的考察,以期窥一斑而知全豹.     

日本众议院大选与未来政局走向

第48届众议院大选是一次"召集即解散"式提前大选,选举过程凸显了日本代议民主制重形式而不重实质的工具主义色彩。各政党优先考虑政局而非民意,竞选政策鲜有亮点。民进党选前分裂,在野党各自为战,自公执政联盟得以巧胜。选举结果不具有转折意义,所带来的政局变化主要是在野党势力的此消彼长。有望超长期执政的安倍内阁,短期内将优先应对朝鲜"威胁",小幅改善对华关系,长期看仍将维持对内推动修宪和军事松绑、对外强化日美同盟和遏制中国的一贯路线。     

美国的"爱国主义"与反恐战争

美国"爱国主义"与宗教信仰密切结合在一起,强调忠于美国的政治价值观,相信美国是承担着上帝赋予使命的一个与众不同的国家.自从建国起,美国就一直根据外部某个"邪恶堕落"的对手界定自已的"使命",凝聚国内的"爱国主义".冷战结束、苏联解体使美国的"爱国主义"一度失去了明确的目标,多元文化主义抬头,美国国家认同面临挑战,"爱国主义"的基础随之发生动摇."9·11"事件激发了美国人的"爱国主义"热情,使命感、"例外论"和非白即黑的宗教善恶观为美国反恐战争中的单边主义外交提供了国内动力.     

论日本的"价值观外交"

安倍内阁在内政外交方面提出许多抽象的理念。在外交方面,"价值观外交"、"自由繁荣之弧"、"日中战略互惠关系"等给人留下较深印象。本文重点分析这些外交口号的内涵、实质、思想脉络,以及它们之间的相互关系。伴随安倍晋三内阁辞职,福田康夫新首相提出"创造和平外交",日本喧嚣一时的"价值观外交"和"自由繁荣之弧"就此戛然而止,而它未来是否会以某种形式重现,还有待结合未来日本政局和国际形势变化做长期观察。     

张学良的对日外交析论——以“皇姑屯事件”“中村事件”中对日外交策略为中心

1928年张学良作为东北最高负责人,在处理"皇姑屯事件"与"中村事件"中,遵循"力避冲突"的主要原则,斗智斗勇地与日周旋,成功地化解了张作霖被害后被动的东北政局,维护了地区稳定,同时排除日本势力干扰实现东北易帜和国家统一,取得对日外交战略上的成功。然而张学良在对日外交中也确有一定失策,其表现为:没有利用新闻媒体制造舆论向日本施压;其难以克服的恐日症思维在与日本交涉中难有进一步的作为;不善于打外交牌错失交涉资本,因此造成对日外交的诸多困难。张学良"隐忍"的外交方针造成日本方面对张学良政府软弱的判断,为此后日本进一步侵略中国埋下伏笔。     

“集体暴力抗争”:值得关注的极端维权方式——对三起群体性事件的考察分析

2008年,中国先后发生了贵州"瓮安事件"、云南"孟连事件"和甘肃"陇南事件",无论是从冲突的激烈程度还是造成的实际损失和负面影响来看,这三起群体性事件都具有典型意义.它们已突破了"日常抵抗"、"依法抗争"和"以法抗争"的范畴,呈现出新的特征和趋向:事件从初露端倪到最终爆发有相对较长时间的酝酿过程,其中含有本来可以回旋的关键环节;参与者最终采取了打、砸、抢、烧的方式,行为明显违法;攻击对象直指党政机关及其工作人员,目标取向单一.     

论《日美地位协定》的本质与影响——兼论冲绳基地问题的法理根源

《日美地位协定》是规定美军在日特权的日美间协议。以地位协定为核心,由《日美安全条约》、地位协定、"密约"及日本国内特别法等构成的"安保法体系",在法理上确定了日本对美军事从属地位,并将该协定嵌入到国内统治结构中。"安保法体系"及其制度性支撑共同构成了规定日本对美军事从属的"法理框架"。日本将对美军事从属的压力传导至冲绳,导致冲绳基地问题的产生。基地的存在给冲绳带来了美军犯罪等问题,且在相关事件处置过程中司法不平等现象屡见不鲜,基于地位协定的"治外法权"导致冲绳民众被害心理的"再生产"。地位协定是冲绳基地问题的法理根源。     

华南虎照事件的“舆情赛跑”

<正>一个小小的假虎照事件引起众多媒体和广大网民持续一年多的关注,由此迅速演化为2007年底最受公众关注的事件。2008年关于该事件的争论和报道持续升温,"打虎"派和"挺虎"派围绕虎照真相展开角力博弈,并引发对政府公信力的强烈质疑。     

日本天皇世袭制延续至今的原因研究述评

在日本,曾一度流行的皇国史观宣称,日本自神武天皇以来,天皇治世一脉相承,即所谓"万世一系",从无间断。毋庸赘言,这种日本天皇乃"万世一系"之说缺乏根据,但若称其"千世一系"倒还基本符合史实。总体来看,尽管日本的政局经常风云变幻,政权由摄政、关白、幕府将军到藩阀官僚几经易手,但直至今天,天皇作为日本唯一合法的君主地位始终没有改变。本文对天皇在日本不同历史发展阶段得以世袭延续的原因研究,进行了概述和分析。     

中国融资租赁登记制度建设的探讨

本文回顾了中国融资租赁业经近三十年间的发展,指出尽管这一行业仍远远滞后于国民经济的总体发展水平,但已为建设逐步完善的中国租赁市场打下了坚实的基础。作者通过对融资租赁制度建设的探讨,意在为《中华人民共和国融资租赁法》出台前做理论和实践的探索,为进一步扩展融资租赁事业提供理论支待。     

信息分析与预测产业化的法律环境分析

信息分析与预测产业化从产品商品化开始,这是一个庞大的系统工程。其商品化引发了一系列产业连带效应,促进其在服务方式、服务内容、管理体制等方面迅速与市场接轨,并整体向产业化进军。依据我国国情与国际惯例,必须吸收其它部门的立法经验与成果,建立整套完善的有中国特色的信息法律体系。     

论春秋中期郑国由盛转衰的原因

春秋初年强盛一时的郑国,在春秋中期迅速衰落,究其原因,主要是因为异姓卿大夫专权,造成统治集团内部矛盾和斗争激烈,国家长期处于动荡之中;经济改革措施相对滞后,国家发展缺乏坚实的经济基础;齐、楚、晋相继兴起,国际形势的新变化不利于郑国的发展;地处中原腹地,地理位置和自然条件限制了郑国的对外发展。     

人民币升值效应分析及对地方经济发展的启示

随着我国经济外向度逐步提高,国内经济波动开始与世界经济波动并轨,汇率的宏观调控作用越来越突出。汇率升值的过程是国民财富增加的过程,同时也蕴含着经济泡沫化的危险,使一国经济陷入长期的萧条。只有壮大实体经济,加强金融监督,实行温和通胀优先的汇率升值原则,才能保障经济的稳定快速发展。     

读六朝史杂记

六朝历史,因分裂偏安、转蓬离乱,多遭史家否定。今天看来,需要重新检视。六朝政权继承汉族文明,主宰着南方向中国文化高峰迅猛前进。六朝时期,中国的经济和文化中心逐步向南方转移,南方在宗教、文学、艺术、科学等方面都有长足的进步。六朝虽为偏于江南的地方政权,从国力和军力而言都弱于北方,但在近三百年的历史中,积淀了璀璨的文化。     

The Rules of the Game: The Politics of National Pensions in Korea

This article explores the conditions in which policy changes occur over time. It studies the institutional pathways taken by national pensions in Korea over an extended period by identifying the key moments which have pushed through their development: initiation (1973), implementation (1988) and reform (1998). Public pensions have developed over time in an incremental fashion, bringing an ever‐growing proportion of the population under their umbrella. What accounts for this development? A number of factors may be at work. The elderly population has rapidly increased; the traditional extended family has increasingly become a nuclear one, meaning that what used simply to be a family issue of protecting the elderly has become a social matter; urbanization and industrialization have resulted in an ever‐growing number of life‐time contingencies such as unexpected income losses. Convincing as these socio‐economic accounts may seem, however, they offer only a snapshot, underscoring the politics of national pensions which stretch over long periods. This article seeks to answer how and in whose interest national pensions come on to the political agenda; how they are framed and defined; and how political actors respond to pressures for national pension reform. In each of the three stages, it is suggested, somewhat different institutional rules have operated. Defining institutional rules as ‘the process of who gets represented in the decision‐making processes’, this article identifies the different institutional rules which have played a pivotal role in the social policy‐making processes.     

The Transferability of Welfare Models: A Comparison of the Scandinavian and State Socialist Models in Relation to Finland and Estonia

In this paper, two examples of the close relationship between a national social welfare system, and explicit transnational influences are discussed. Both the state socialist and Scandinavian models have a recognized structure independent of the particular countries in which they have been implemented, although they are both associated with a home base, Russia and Sweden respectively. Our examples, Estonia and Finland, faced both common and specific national problems following 1991, which led to rapid change in each country's economic situation and pressure on their respective welfare systems. There were elements of continuity and discontinuity with the main tenets of their respective welfare models, and both structural factors and cultural diffusion will be explored to understand the origin of these changes. The paper could be seen as a case study of welfare changes in the "borderlands" where "old empires meet". The countries were chosen because they are peripheral to what were rival spheres of influence and because they see themselves as having much in common. We also expect changes to occur more rapidly in peripheral areas.     

改革开放初期北京市国民经济调整进程及成效

针对1977、1978两年国民经济发展中出现的设备和技术引进热潮,在国家领导人的推动下,中央决定用三年时间对国民经济实行以调整为中心的"调整、改革、整顿、提高"的方针。北京市针对经济发展中的结构性矛盾,积极迅速地贯彻中央的调整方针,克服了盲目引进技术和成套设备的局面;初步调整了全市国民经济中的农轻重比例;在调整中深化了对改革的认识,为北京市经济的良性发展奠定了宝贵基础。     

The Fiscal Crisis of National Health Insurance in the Republic of Korea: In Search of a New Paradigm

In 2001, National Health Insurance (NHI) in Korea, the social insurance system for health care with universal population coverage, experienced a serious fiscal crisis as its accumulated surplus was depleted. This fiscal crisis is attributed to its chronic imbalance: health care expenditure has increased more rapidly than have insurance contributions. The recent failure in implementing pharmaceutical reform was a further blow to the deteriorating fiscal status of the NHI. Although the NHI has since recovered from the immediate fiscal crisis, this has mainly been because of a temporary increase in government subsidy into the NHI. The strong influence of the medical profession in health policy‐making remains a major barrier to the introduction of policy changes, such as a reform of the payment system to strengthen the fiscal foundations of the NHI. Korea also has to restructure its national health insurance in an era of very rapid population ageing. A new paradigm is called for in the governance of the NHI: to empower groups of consumers and payers in the policy and major decision‐making process of the NHI. The fiscal crisis in Korean national health insurance sheds light on the vulnerability of the social health insurance system to financial instability, the crucial role of provider payment schemes in health cost containment, the importance of governance in health policy, and the unintended burdens of health care reform on health care financing systems.     

全球化：超越民族国家，还是超越民族文化?

全球化的实质并不在于超越民族国家 ,而在于超越民族文化。因为民族国家既是一个政治意识形态共同体 ,又是一个民族文化共同体。全球化进程在消除了民族国家之间政治意识形态上的对立之后 ,各民族文化上的对立就成为全球化进程中的核心问题。只有在各民族文化的基础上 ,建立一种全球文化 ,才能真正超越各民族文化上的对立