The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality

Smoking has significantly impacted American mortality and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. No previous study has systematically examined the contribution of smoking-attributable deaths to mortality trends among blacks or to black-white mortality differences at older ages over time in the United States. In this article, we employ multiple methods and data sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of this contribution. We find that smoking has contributed to the black-white gap in life expectancy at age 50 for males, accounting for 20 % to 48 % of the gap between 1980 and 2005, but not for females. The fraction of deaths attributable to smoking at ages above 50 is greater for black males than for white males; and among men, current smoking status explains about 20 % of the black excess relative risk in all-cause mortality at ages above 50 without adjustment for socioeconomic characteristics. These findings advance our understanding of the contribution of smoking to contemporary mortality trends and differences and reinforce the need for interventions that better address the needs of all groups.     

The Navajo–U.S. Population Mortality Crossover since the Mid-20th Century

Mortality crossovers at older ages have been observed when comparing different populations, particularly disadvantaged populations with advantaged populations. A growing body of research indicates that mortality convergences to actual crossovers are real and not a result of overstating of age at the older ages. Only recently have the mortality experiences of Native Americans been compared with those of other Americans; specific Native American tribal populations have not been examined, however. Presented here are the mortality experiences of the Navajo and those of the total U.S. population and U.S. white population since the mid-20th century. Comparison provides further support to findings that convergences and crossovers actually occur between disadvantaged and advantaged populations.     

The Quality of Life Among U.S. States

Categories of Schwartz and Mukherjee are used to select twelve measures with direct or indirect influence on QoL of the 50 States and the D.C. Included are such recognized indicators as health, housing, longevity, a toxic-free environment, crime, etc. From a factor analysis of these data, four factors emerge, identified as Security, Mastery, Harmony and Autonomy. Three partially-independent measures provide verification of the QoL measures: the KIDS COUNT Index, the Southern Regional Council QoL of workers Index and a state-by-state Stress Index. I then test hypotheses relating to QoL: the economic hypothesis that the production of wealth enhances welfare (QoL), a demographic hypotheses concerning migration and urbanization, an hypothesis that religious adherents influence QoL, and psychological hypothesis that a better QoL generates less stress, and others.     

Cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for U.S. Women

Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys reveal nonnegligible levels of nonmarital fertility historically. For women born between 1925 and 1929, nearly 1 in 10 had at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. For women born between 1965 and 1969, more than 1 of 4 had one or more nonmarital births by age 30, with roughly 1 of5 white, 3 of 5 black, and 1 in 3 Hispanic women having at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. Life table estimates reveal a twofold increase between ages 20 and 30 in the percentage of women with at least one child outside of formal marriage for all cohorts of white and Hispanic women, and an increase of roughly two-thirds for all cohorts of black women. I also document qualitative differences in nonmarital fertility by race/ethnicity, with the percentage of nonmarital births following a divorce or marital separation for white women approximately twice that for black or Hispanic women. Finally, I introduce a new measure, the cohort nonmarital fertility ratio (CNMFR), which provides a cohort complement to the standard period nonmarital fertility ratio. Conservative estimates reveal a roughly threefold increase in the CNMFR for women born from 1925-1929 to 1950-1954 for both whites and blacks, despite substantially higher levels of nonmarital fertility among black women. Overall, these findings reveal surprisingly high levels of nonmarital fertility for women born since the 1920s and confirm that nonmarital fertility has become an increasingly substantial component of overall U.S. fertility.     

The impact of specific occupation on mortality in the U.S. National Longitudinal Mortality Study

We compare mortality differences for specific and general categories of occupations using a national cohort of approximately 380,000 persons aged 25-64 from the U.S. National Longitudinal Mortality Study. Based on comparisons of relative risk obtained from Cox proportional-hazards model analyses, higher risk is observed in moving across the occupational spectrum from the technical, highly skilled occupations to less-skilled and generally more labor-intensive occupations. Mortality differences obtained for social status groups of specific occupations are almost completely accounted for by adjustments for income and education. Important differences are shown to exist for selected specific occupations beyond those accounted for by social status, income, and education. High-risk specific occupations include taxi drivers, cooks, longshoremen, and transportation operatives. Low-risk specific occupations include lawyers, natural scientists, teachers, farmers, and a variety of engineers.     

The Risk of an Unwanted Birth: The Changing Context of Contraceptive Sterilization in the U.S.

Life-table estimates indicate that one-quarter of U.S. women intend no more births by age 25, one-half by age 27, and three-quarters by age 30. The resulting long period at risk of unwanted fertility is argued to be an important underlying dimension of the revolution in attitudes to and practice of sterilization. Life-table estimates are then considered of the timing of sterilization after the last wanted birth. Almost one-quarter of all couples select sterilization within the first year after they have had the number of children they desire. Recent experience would imply that four-fifths of all couples will eventually use contraceptive sterilization. In order to examine the determinants of men's and women's sterilization, logistic regression is used with a polytomous dependent variable: sterilization of the woman, sterilization of the man, or no sterilization within four years of the last wanted birth. Covariates considered are age and parity at last wanted birth, year and duration of marriage at last wanted birth, wife's and husband's education, wife's and husband's religion, whether residence is in a central city, region, pill-use history and timing-failure histories before the last wanted birth, and unwanted birth. Large and significant effects are found for most of these variables, and these effects change in interpretable ways between early innovative behaviour and sterilization during the most recent period when it was widely accepted.     

The Life Course,Cohort Dynamics,and International Differences in Aging Trajectories

In recent years, population health research has focused on understanding the determinants of later-life health. Two strands of that work have focused on (1) international comparisons of later-life health and (2) assessing the early-life origins of disease and disability and the importance of life course processes. However, the less frequently examined intersection of these approaches remains an important frontier. The present study contributes to the integration of these approaches. We use the Health and Retirement Study family of data sets and a cohort dynamic approach to compare functional health trajectories across 12 high-income countries and to examine the role of life course processes and cohort dynamics in contributing to variation in those trajectories. We find substantial international variation in functional health trajectories and an important role of cohort dynamics in generating that variation, with younger cohorts often less healthy at comparable ages than the older cohorts they are replacing. We further find evidence of heterogeneous effects of life course processes on health trajectories. The results have important implications for future trends in morbidity and mortality as well as public policy.     

社会性别化的风险、经历与反应——对美国妇女与艾滋病的探讨

艾滋病目前已成为美国一个严重的社会问题和大众健康问题。妇女从 2 0世纪 80年代在边缘徘徊 ,到 90年代已陷入了该危机的“震中”。本文将从女权主义的视野来审视这场社会性别化的传染病 ,即把社会性别当作主要变量来考察它同种族、族裔、阶级、性取向以及文化等诸因素的交叉互动 ,并从纷繁复杂的艾滋病现象和文献中梳理出妇女与艾滋病关系上的社会性别差异。文章最后将提出若干可资借鉴并值得我们警觉的建议     

Single Motherhood and Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Life Course Perspective

Single motherhood in sub-Saharan Africa has received surprisingly little attention, although it is widespread and has critical implications for children’s well-being. Using survival analysis techniques, we estimate the probability of becoming a single mother over women’s life course and investigate the relationship between single motherhood and child mortality in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Although a mere 5 % of women in Ethiopia have a premarital birth, one in three women in Liberia will become mothers before first marriage. Compared with children whose parents were married, children born to never-married single mothers were significantly more likely to die before age 5 in six countries (odds ratios range from 1.36 in Nigeria to 2.61 in Zimbabwe). In addition, up to 50 % of women will become single mothers as a consequence of divorce or widowhood. In nine countries, having a formerly married mother was associated with a significantly higher risk of dying (odds ratios range from 1.29 in Zambia to 1.75 in Kenya) relative to having married parents. Children of divorced women typically had the poorest outcomes. These results highlight the vulnerability of children with single mothers and suggest that policies aimed at supporting single mothers could help to further reduce child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.     

The status of women in the rural U.S.S.R.

Degree of sex equality in rural areas of the U.S.S.R. is assessed with reference to a multi-variable model which specifies demographic, technological, social, and ideological factors associated with sex stratification. Such analysis reveals that the emphasis in the U.S.S.R. on women's participation in production as the key to sex equality ignores other dimensions of sex stratification which are not changed using this tactic. In particular, rural traditions of higher birth rates, more authoritarian families, greater religious emphasis, and male scorn for women have kept the status of rural women even lower than that of their urban counterparts. Additionally, the agrarian techno-economic base and lack of institutional supports for childcare and housework help perpetuate sex stratification. Increasing sex differentiation is probably in store for the Soviet Union, because official pronatalist policies are likely to be facilitated by expanding the service sector, which will further increase the division of labor in the market.     

The Dual Role of Race and Immigration Among Ascending Neighborhoods in U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Population Research and Policy Review - The racial/ethnic and socioeconomic diversity of immigrants to the United States has grown since the 1990s, along with growing neighborhood socioeconomic...     

Poverty and Problem Behaviors across the Early Life Course: The Role of Sensitive Period Exposure

Research routinely finds that children exposed to poverty exhibit more problem behaviors than their nonexposed counterparts. This research, however, lacks developmental specificity with regard to timing and the pathways by which poverty exposures manifest across the early life course. I utilized 15 years of prospective data from the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development to assess how poverty exposures and financial strains at different ages (0–1, 2–5, and 15) were related to problem behaviors during early childhood (ages 2–5), late childhood (ages 5–12), and adolescence (age 15). Results show that poverty exposures during infancy and to a lesser extent early childhood were robust predictors of problem behaviors in early childhood, late childhood, and adolescence because they were linked to more problem behaviors at younger ages, which persisted over time. These associations partially operated through financial strain. Poverty during adolescence was mostly unrelated to problem behaviors during adolescence after taking into account exposures at younger ages. Overall, this study provided initial evidence that poverty exposure during infancy may have lasting implications for problem behaviors across the early life course.     

城镇不同社会医疗保险待遇人群死亡率交叉现象研究

本文使用中国老人健康长寿影响因素研究(Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Lon-gevity Survey,CLHLS),2002～2005年调查数据对我国不同社会医疗保险待遇的老年人口的死亡率交叉现象进行了研究。运用离散时间的死亡风险分析,文章的发现支持选择性死亡的理论,即无社会医疗保险的人群,60岁时死亡率一直高于享受医保人群,使得无医保人群中强健的个体幸存下来;随着年龄的增长,这种选择机制的作用逐渐表现为死亡率逆转,即无医保人群的平均死亡率在大约96岁以后开始低于享受医保人群。研究显示,我国享受社会医疗保险的老年的生存优势一直存在至96岁高龄,医疗保险对于老年人口的健康有着显著而长远的积极影响。     

Multiple Meanings of Minority Concentration: Incorporating Contextual Explanations into the Analysis of Individual-Level U.S. Black Mortality Outcomes

Prior research on mortality for U.S. blacks focuses on the detrimental effects of minority concentration and residential segregation in metropolitan areas on health outcomes. To date, few studies have examined this relationship outside of large U.S. central cities. In this paper, we extend current research on the minority concentration and mortality relationship to explain the rural advantage in mortality for nonmetropolitan blacks. Using data from the 1986–1994 linked National Health Interview Survey/National Death Index, we examine the rural-urban gap in mortality for U.S. blacks. Our findings indicate that blacks in nonmetropolitan areas experience a lower risk of mortality than metropolitan central city blacks after indicators of socio-economic and health status are controlled. Our findings also point to the importance of accounting for contextual factors. Net of individual level controls, minority concentration exerts differential effects across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, such that nonmetropolitan black residents experience a lower risk of mortality in high minority concentration areas than blacks in metropolitan central city areas. This finding suggests a reconceptualization of the meaning for minority concentration with respect to studies of health outcomes in nonmetropolitan communities.     

The fecundability of U.S. women

In this note I shall define fecundability as the probability that a non-pregnant woman will achieve a recognizable pregnancy during a month of exposure to risk.     

The fecundability of U.S. women

Abstract In this note I shall define fecundability as the probability that a non-pregnant woman will achieve a recognizable pregnancy during a month of exposure to risk.     

Quality of Life from the Voting Booth: The Effect of Crime Rates and Income on Recent U.S. Presidential Elections

Quality of Life (QOL) is often measured with surveys of citizen’s satisfaction. In contrast, the current research uses already-existing voting data to infer citizens’ perceptions of QOL. Under this model, citizens decide how much their QOL has improved (or declined) since the last election, and then vote to reward (or punish) the incumbent party accordingly. Analysis of the popular vote for the incumbent party then allows inference on how citizens judge their QOL and how they weight the various domains. Previous research has concluded that voters reward an incumbent who improves the economic domain prior to election. I test whether voters also reward declining crime rates, and estimate how citizens weight the relative importance of each in determining QOL. I analyze the vote shares by state from U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 1996. Results show that changes in crime rates do influence vote share, consistent with the responsibility hypothesis, but to a smaller degree than the economic domain does. The method described provides convergent evidence that citizens weight domains differentially, and can provide the weights for a national QOL index.     

HIV Risk Behaviors in the U.S. Transgender Population: Prevalence and Predictors in a Large Internet Sample

To study the influence of gender on HIV risk, a sample of the U.S. transgender population (N = 1,229) was recruited via the Internet. HIV risk and prevalence were lower than reported in prior studies of localized, urban samples but higher than the overall U.S. population. Findings suggest that gender nonconformity alone does not itself result in markedly higher HIV risk. Sex with nontransgender men emerged as the strongest independent predictor of unsafe sex for both male-to-female (MtF) and female-to-male (FtM) participants. These sexual relationships constitute a process that may either affirm or problematize gender identity and sexual orientation, with different emphases for MtFs and FtMs, respectively.     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.