企业年金积累期的最优动态资产配置策略

替代率是评价企业年金基金投资效果的重要指标之一.本文构建了与替代率挂钩的目标基金,建立了基于目标的企业年金基金最优资产配置模型,利用随机动态规划方法获得了年金基金最优投资策略的解析解,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟技术对所得结果进行数值模拟,考察了不同市场环境及不同群体的最优配置策略和最优策略对可控制参数的敏感性.结果表明:模型中参数对年金基金的最优配置策略各有不同影响,不同群体和不同金融市场中的最优策略也有差异,但总体而言最优资产配置策略具有高风险资产权重随着时间推移而降低的动态特征.     

基于风险环境的企业多层交叉信用评分模型与应用

研究基于风险环境的企多层交叉信用评分模型与信用评级方法,解决同一地区具有多个地域、多个行业和多个企业的企业、行业和地域等具有二级或以上层级结构的企业、行业和地域信用评级问题.定义了地域信用形象,针对同一地域同一行业、不同地域同一行业、同一地域不同行业和不同地域不同行业等4种不同的企业层级结构,分别建立了企业信用评分模型、行业信用评分模型和地域信用评分模型,用以对企业、行业和地域进行信用评级.以某一地区某一行业的集团公司进行项目贷款申请为例,假定该公司同时在"好"、"中"和"差"3个不同的经济发展区域分别建立3个子公司,并分别计算了该公司及其3个子公司在不同地域信用环境影响下的信用评分值,然后综合计算了在不同地域同一行业下的具有多层级结构的公司多级信用评分值,给出公司相应的信用评级结果和银行相应的信贷策略.最后还给出了集团公司具有贷款申请资格的数值条件.该方法对集团公司的信用评级方法以及银行对集团公司的信贷策略及相应决策具有科学参考依据.     

Enhancing competitive advantage by constructing supply chains to achieve superior performance

This paper studies the impact of configuring supply chain design strategies on performance using real-world example of aligning different supply chain practices to supply chain strategies to achieve competitive advantage. The paper first carries out a synthesis of literature categorising the supply chain strategies, practices and linking them to contexts and competitive advantage. The paper then uses a case study methodology to explore the process of adjusting supply chain strategies and aligned practices to gain competitive advantage in different contexts. The paper reports two case examples of a leaf tobacco company and a mosquito coil manufacturer from India facing different demand characteristics and implementing different supply chain strategies for enhancing performance objectives. Both companies faced a change in their business environment and competitive priorities. In both the examples, companies used a combination of practices for implementing appropriate supply chain strategies to gain competitive advantage. This paper contributes to the academic discipline of supply chain management through developing theory showing the transition of supply chain strategies for achieving superior performance in different business environments. The paper has wide managerial implications by reporting real-life implementation of different supply chain strategies thus bridging the practice-theory gap.     

Toward Improving Food Safety in the Domestic Environment: A Multi-Item Rasch Scale for the Measurement of the Safety Efficacy of Domestic Food-Handling Practices

To reduce consumer health risks from foodborne diseases that result from improper domestic food handling, consumers need to know how to safely handle food. To realize improvements in public health, it is necessary to develop interventions that match the needs of individual consumers. Successful intervention strategies are therefore contingent on identifying not only the practices that are important for consumer protection, but also barriers that prevent consumers from responding to these interventions. A measure of food safety behavior is needed to assess the effectiveness of different intervention strategies across different groups of consumers. A nationally representative survey was conducted in the Netherlands to determine which practices are likely conducted by which consumers. Participants reported their behaviors with respect to 55 different food-handling practices. The Rasch modeling technique was used to determine a general measure for the likelihood of an average consumer performing each food-handling behavior. Simultaneously, an average performance measure was estimated for each consumer. These two measures can be combined to predict the likelihood that an individual consumer engages in a specific food-handling behavior. A single "food safety" dimension was shown to underlie all items. Some potentially safe practices (e.g., use of meat thermometers) were reported as very difficult, while other safe practices were conducted by respondents more frequently (e.g., washing of fresh fruit and vegetables). A cluster analysis was applied to the resulting data set, and five segments of consumers were identified. Different behaviors may have different effects on microbial growth in food, and thus have different consequences for human health. Once the microbial relevance of the different consumer behaviors has been confirmed by experiments and modeling, the scale developed in the research reported here can be used to develop risk communication targeted to the needs of different consumer groups, as well as to measure the efficacy of different interventions.     

软件产业企业集群策动与策应机制研究

本研究分析了我国软件产业企业集群形成的动因和软件产业企业集群策动与策应能力,通过企业集群策动与策应机制进行建模与分析,根据软件产业不同的战略发展阶段、不同的战略群体,对软件产业政府的最优策动策略和企业集群中企业的最优策应策略进行探讨与研究。     

Multistage model interpretation of additive and multiplicative carcinogenic effects

Under the assumption of multistage carcinogenesis, a multiplicative carcinogenic effect would be produced by the action of different carcinogens in a mixture on different stages of the carcinogenic process. An additive effect would be produced by the effect of different carcinogens on the same stage. A mathematical argument for these hypotheses is presented here.     

MULTIPERIOD SEARCH MODELS FOR AN UNKNOWN NUMBER OF VALUABLE OBJECTS

In this paper we examine multiperiod search models for cases in which the number of valuable objects is unknown. The objective is to maximize the expected total returns during the planning horizon, subject to an effort constraint. Using a Bayesian approach, we examine the model for three different priors for the number of valuable objects, and we show that the different priors (binomial, Poisson and negative binomial) lead to such conceptually different results as adaptive and nonadaptive optimal policies. The models can be applied to many areas including mineral explorations, marketing promotion activities and intelligence information.     

A Method for Evaluating Transmission Line Magnetic Field Mitigation Strategies That Incorporates Biological Uncertainty

A method to determine how much reduction in public exposure to power frequency magnetic fields can be obtained for different levels of investment is presented. Which if any "effects function" best describes the relationship between field exposure and biological effect is uncertain at this time. Also, in a particular context such as construction of new transmission lines there are a variety of different technologies which might be used to reduce exposure. We describe and demonstrate a method by which exposure reduction supply curves (i.e., the cost of purchasing different amounts of exposure reduction given various mitigation options) can be estimated parametrically for different exposure conditions and effects functions, and we display illustrative results.     

Meetings between frames: Negotiating worth between journalism and management

This paper explores meetings between different frames, thus producing different overflows in an organizational context. Relying on Boltanski and Thévenot's (2006) sociology of critique (also called the sociology of conventions) to analyze the relationship between different frames, this paper specifically investigates the encounter between journalism and management in practice in a digital news venture. It is based on an ethnographic study of Rue89, a French news organization, which was started in 2007 by former newspaper journalists and publishes an advertising-based generalist news website open for readers' participation in the production of news. The study shows how negotiations between different frames organizing work at Rue89 take place in different ways in different situations and lead to different results, in terms of what is worth doing and what is not, thus overflowing.     

Bayesian Data Analysis of Severe Fatal Accident Risk in the Oil Chain

We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non‐OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation—namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis.     

政府控制与企业高管人员薪酬绩效敏感度

根据我国新的国有资产管理体制特征,着眼于我国政府对国有企业实行分级管理的背景,将国有上市公司分为中央政府控股的上市公司和地方政府控股的上市公司2类。由于政府对这2类公司监管程度的差异、企业面对的市场风险的不同,以及这2类公司高管人员对薪酬的关注程度存在差异,说明薪酬在这2类国有上市公司中的重要性并不一致。研究结果表明,国有上市公司高管人员薪酬的业绩敏感性与政府控制人的行政级别相关,中央政府控制企业的高管人员的薪酬业绩敏感性更低。     

Is management really generic?

Four classes of organizations can be identified along the continuum between classical private profit-making firms and strictly governmental agencies: private for-profit, private non-profit, private quasi-public, and public. These four organization prototypes have different management functions because they receive their support from different subsectors of the society. Dependence on different individuals, groups, and organizations in the external environment creates different values, incentives, and constraints for management. The resulting differences in how the basic managerial processes are implemented may be more significant than the generic theory of management had acknowledged.     

The medical device payment controversy rages on

Who will pay for investigational research? This seemingly endless debate assumes different guises as different aspects of the health care industry come under scrutiny. The latest wrinkle in the debate involves reimbursement for devices that are not FDA approved. My September column discussed the issue of funding investigational cancer therapies, specifically high-dose therapy and bone marrow transplant, as treatments for various malignancies. That controversy was centered on the use of FDA-approved drugs in settings beyond the labeled indications. However, the issue with medical devices is different. It involves implantable devices that the FDA says have not proven to be safe and effective.     

我国节能减排政策的措施与目标协同有效吗?——基于1052条节能减排政策的研究

基于我国1997年至2013年间颁布的1 052条节能减排政策,利用从政策力度、政策措施和政策目标三个维度对我国节能减排政策进行量化的数据,构建了针对不同措施与目标协同的计量模型.论文研究了政策措施与目标协同对节能减排效果的影响,并分析了节能减排政策措施与目标的协同状况及我国政府对其使用状况.研究发现,我国各节能减排政策中分别以行政措施和引导措施为基础的措施与目标协同对节能减排效果的影响存在显著的方向性差异,且不同措施与目标协同方式的使用程度差异明显并有待进一步完善.本文厘清了不同政策措施与目标的协同效果,为我国政府节能减排政策协同机制的建立和有效实施提供了理论依据.     

QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN MARKETING: AN ASSESSMENT OF TEACHING AND USAGE PATTERNS

This paper presents the perspectives of quantitative techniques in academics and practice. Based on the findings of an empirical study, the academicians and practitioners emphasize different techniques and prefer different journals for keeping abreast. This reveals the areas for curriculum improvement to orient the program toward the practitioners.     

Learning by Objectives for Adaptive Shop-Floor Scheduling*

Effective production scheduling requires consideration of the dynamics and unpredictability of the manufacturing environment. An automated learning scheme, utilizing genetic search, is proposed for adaptive control in typical decentralized factory-floor decision making. A high-level knowledge representation for modeling production environments is developed, with facilities for genetic learning within this scheme. A multiagent framework is used, with individual agents being responsible for the dispatch decision making at different workstations. Learning is with respect to stated objectives, and given the diversity of scheduling goals, the efficacy of the designed learning scheme is judged through its response under different objectives. The behavior of the genetic learning scheme is analyzed and simulation studies help compare how learning under different objectives impacts certain aggregate measures of system performance.     

战略导向、组织学习对产品创新的影响研究

本文对战略导向影响产品创新的路径进行了研究,发现不同战略导向对学习活动有不同的选择倾向,而不同类型的学习活动也会对产品创新产生不同的影响。本研究不仅弥补了应用性学习与探索性学习研究的不足,也有助于企业引导和利用组织学习来提高产品创新水平,为管理实践提供理论参考。     

Cryptosporidium Dose Response Studies: Variation Between Isolates

The infectivity of three different isolates of the waterborne protozoan parasite Cryptosporidium parvum has been tested in human feeding studies. These three isolates (Iowa, TAMU, and UCP) have different ID50s, indicating substantial variation in their infectivity for humans. This finding is of great importance for quantitative risk assessment as it provides strong evidence for heterogeneity in infectivity among isolates of the same species.     

期权“净购买压力”的隐含信息

使用50ETF期权的高频数据,研究“净购买压力”指标对指数方向性和波动性变化的预测能力,并比较不同加总方法、看涨看跌、不同在值程度的期权以及非对称的“净购买压力”指标隐含信息的差异性.本文发现,50ETF期权“净购买压力”指标隐含着标的指数方向性和波动性的变化信息.在预测指数变化方向时,Delta加总的“净购买压力”隐含的信息已包含在简单加总的指标之中,看涨、看跌期权以及不同在值程度的期权在信息含量上存在差异性.在预测指数波动性时,使用简单加总和使用Gamma、Vega加总的“净购买压力”指标均隐含着未来市场的波动率信息,平值和虚值期权的“净购买压力”指标对波动率具有更强的预测能力.同时,“净购买压力”的隐含信息存在非对称特征.     

Corporate planning—A functional approach

The experience and arts of 295 Chief Executive Officers have been utilized for the study's findings. The analyses suggest that a firm's effective strategic-mix of major organizational functions would depend upon the nature of the particular circumstances which the organization faces. The different organizational settings are formed in the study and the effective strategic-mix of organizational functions have been statistically formulated on the basis of the Chief Executive Officers' judgement of what constitutes the effective strategic-mix of functions for their firm's overall corporate strategy. The relative influences of the General Management function and the functional managements (Marketing, Finance, Production, R & D, etc.) upon the overall corporate strategy have been the inputs for the derivation of the effective strategic-mix of functions. Environment, technology and firm-size have been considered for the formation of the different organizational settings. The study's findings not only provide what the different strategic-mixes for the different organizational settings are but also provide a working analytical framework for comprehensive analyses for the identification of the functions critical to the accomplishment of the overall corporate objectives and goals.