Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

DO OPEN-ENDED QUESTIONS MEASURE "SALIENT" ISSUES?

Closed-ended questions dominate most interview schedules. Yetthe almost exclusive use of this form did not arise becauseopen-ended questions, its major competitor, proved to be weakindicators of public opinion. Instead, responses from open-endedquestions proved more difficult and expensive to code and analyzethan those from closed-ended questions. Although such practicalconcerns are important, the real task of survey researchersis to measure public opinion accurately. Using an experimentaldesign, this article tests whether open-ended questions measurethe important concerns of respondents—one of the long-claimedadvantages of this format. The results, on balance, show thatopen-ended comments reflect such concerns, suggesting that pollstersmay want to include more of these questions in their surveysof public opinion.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF "TRIAL HEAT" POLLS DURING THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

There is little systematic research on the multitude of factorsthat influence the accuracy of poll results. This article examinessix methodological factors directly under the survey researcher'scontrol and two exogenous factors concerning the nature of publicopinion as sources of survey error. Data for this study comefrom 56 "trial heat" polls conducted during the last month ofthe 1992 presidential election. The most important variablesinfluencing survey accuracy were the number of days a poll isin the field, which increased total accuracy one-half of a percentagepoint per day; conducting interviews only on weekdays (and thusonly during evening hours), which reduced overall accuracy ratesby more than 1 percentage point; and conducting a "tracking"poll, which increased accuracy by about 1.5 points. Sample sizewas not related to accuracy rates. Results also indicated thatsampling frames of "likely voters" (relative to "registeredvoters") tended to overestimate support for George Bush andunderestimate support for Ross Perot, that interviewing onlyon weekdays led to overestimates of support for Bush, and thatstrict methods of defining a respondent as "supporting" a candidatehurt the two newcomers, Perot and Bill Clinton, more than Bush.In light of these data it is recommended that the common practiceof reporting "margins of error" based solely on sample sizesbe abandoned as misleading and replaced by a more empiricallyjustifiable measure based more on response rates.     

"MY WIFE KNOWS BEST" A COMPARISON OF EVENT DATING ACCURACY BETWEEN THE WIFE, THE HUSBAND, THE COUPLE, AND THE BELGIUM POPULATION REGISTER

The problem of memory bias in retrospective data has been studiedfor short-term retrospective recall and for frequently occurringevents, but little has been written on how questionnaire designcan improve memory of personal events over a very long retrospectivetime period. This study offers a new approach to the problemby using a sample survey conducted in Belgium that allows thecomparison of recall accuracy not only between the husband andthe wife but also the couple together through the use of NationalPopulation Register data. The sample data support findings fromcertain psychological experiments that respondents' errors inevent dating are generally in years, and not in months, andfurthermore that this pattern is not general and is relatedto the event itself. Subsequently, the year of the birth ofa child, which has an annual significance, is generally recalledaccurately; the year of a change of residence, however, is oftenerroneous. Results of the log-linear models show that the oddsof recalling an incorrect year of a move are significantly decreasedif an event with annual significance occurred around the sametime period. Design of retrospective questionnaires should takeinto account the fact that time units are not recalled equallyfor differing autobiographical events, and that dating accuracycould be improved through use of parallel event questioning.Correlations between dating errors and omissions, and the possibilityof a "chain of errors" in responses, are also examined.     

CHANGING RACIAL LABELS: FROM "COLORED" TO "NEGRO" TO "BLACK" TO "AFRICAN AMERICAN"

Labels play an important role in defining groups and individualswho belong to the groups. This has been especially true forracial and ethnic groups in general and for Blacks in particular.Over the past century the standard term for Blacks has shiftedfrom "Colored" to "Negro" to "Black" and now perhaps to "AfricanAmerican." The changes can be seen as attempts by Blacks toredefine themselves and to gain respect and standing in a societythat has held them to be subordinate and inferior.     

Does profit sharing increase firms’ profits?

Although there is ample evidence that profit-sharing plans increase productivity, little is known about how such plans affect profitability. Using a data set of 198 U. S. firms, I examined the relationship between profit sharing and profits. Results suggest that profit sharing has a significant effect on profits in a single-equation setting. But the significance disappeared in a simultaneous-equations framework because of interdependence between the two variables. In an auxiliary regression, profit sharing is found to increase labor costs. This result partially explains why profit sharing has an insignificant effect on profitability. The author thanks Daniel Mitchell, David Lewin, Sanford Jacoby, Chris Erickson, Douglas Kruse, and Dong-One Kim for helpful comments. He also thanks David Lewin for providing Columbia Business Data and the Institute of Industrial Relations at UCLA for financial support.     

"Walking the Walk" of Public Service Motivation: Public Employees and Charitable Gifts of Time, Blood, and Money

Research generally indicates that public employees "talk thetalk," but do they also "walk the walk" of the public servicemotive (PSM)? Are public service employees more likely thanothers to engage in public service activities? The behavioralimplications of PSM are addressed by studying the involvementin charitable activities of public, nonprofit, and private workers.Using data from the 2002 General Social Survey, multivariatelogistic regression models are estimated to examine self-reportedgifts of time, blood, and money to charitable organizations.It is found that government employees are more likely to volunteerfor charity and to donate blood than for-profit employees are.Additionally, nonprofit workers are also more likely than theirfor-profit counterparts to volunteer. However, no differenceis found among public service and private employees in termsof individual philanthropy. These findings generally lend supportfor the hypothesis that PSM is more prominent in public servicethan in private organizations, especially as it pertains togovernment personnel.     

Too Good to be False: An Essay in the Folklore of Social Science

In 1939, Carl Hovland and Robert R. Sears presented data that they believed linked fluctuations in the price of cotton to lynchings in the South, a linkage first suggested six years earlier by Arthur Raper. This correlation quickly became a popular illustration of frustration-aggression theory. A few years later, a statistical critique by Alexander Mintz cast the reality of the association into doubt, but a sample survey of members of the Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues reveals that Howland and Sears's "finding" is still widely, if imprecisely, known and accepted. Their article continues to be cited in the social-psychological literature and in many introductory textbooks. The failure of Mintz's critique to catch up with the striking but flawed, original report illustrates a structured impediment to reliable knowledge in the social sciences.     

The "More for Less" Paradox: Public Attitudes on Taxing and Spending

Using a statewide random sample of over 900 respondents, attitudestoward taxing and spending are examined in order to try to explainthe seeming paradox of a public that wants more spending butless taxation. We investigate the possibility that the publicwhich wants more spending is willing to pay for it by meansother than taxes, such as through reallocation or increasednontax revenue. Moderate support for this expectation is found.Overall, the desire fora "free lunch" is not as widespread asa simple comparison of taxing and spending preferences suggests.     

ELECTORAL CONSEQUENCES OF "WINNING" TELEVISED CAMPAIGN DEBATES

This study explores the long-neglected impact of a candidatebeing perceived as the "winner" of political debates on individualvoting behaviour in West Germany. While there has been muchresearch on the effects of debates on perceptions of candidatepolicy stands and personality atttributes, there has been littlework that attempts to guage how much "winning" the debate helpsa candidate at the polls. I investigate this process with straightforwardprobit models of the vote choice, including party identificationand candiate evaluation as well as whether the individual judgeda particular candidate as the "winner", or "fared best" in thedebate. These models are run for the 1972, 1976, 1980, and 1983elections in West Germany. The results show that there is aconsistent impact of "winning" the debate on individual votingchoices in West Germany; controlling for party and other factors,there is a significantly higher probability of voting for theparty of the politician the respondent feels won the contest.Debates, then, do ultimately make a substabtial electoral difference.     

What Must My Interest in Politics Be If I Just Told You "I Don't Know"?

How much people think they follow what's going on in governmentand public affairs depends upon the context in which they areasked the question. If asked immediately after difficult questionsabout what they know of their congressman's record, they aremuch less likely to think they pay attention to public affairsthan if they are asked, first, how interested they are in suchmatters. More important, data from two independent experimentsshow that this context effect cannot be eliminated, or significantlyreduced, by interposing a buffer of questions on unrelated topicsbetween the items that are known to affect one another. Theauthors discuss the psychological significance of these findingsand their implications for survey research.     

Following the "Mail Hawks": Alternative Measures of Public Opinion on Vietnam in the Johnson White House

Scholars argue that public opinion grew in importance duringthe Vietnam conflict, yet most find President Johnson was notresponsive to public opinion during the War. We amplify thesetheories by demonstrating the practical value of public opinionmail sent to the White House on Vietnam, reshaping theoriesabout the constraining role of public opinion in foreign policy.We find that the White House mail, but not opinion polling,favoring escalation of the War had a significant and positiveimpact on President Johnson's policy rhetoric. From these andsimilar findings, we conclude that the Johnson Administrationfollowed core "hawkish" political allies (those individualsdesiring a rapid escalation and quick end to the war) ratherthan those approving of a withdrawal, suggesting mail-gaugedopinion from electoral partners (and core political allies morebroadly) has value in foreign policy making.     

Between Ideology and Economy: The "Time Politics" of Child Care and Public Education in the Two Germanys

The article compares the discourses and policies of the "timepolitics" of public, that is, institutionalized, extra-familialcare and education of pre- and elementary school children inEast and West Germany. The FRG and the GDR represented two highlydistinct welfare and education systems, which referred to eachother in a complex relationship of "distancing and interconnection."Proceeding from the concept of the "path dependency" of societaland political developments, the article analyzes which factorsworked together when, how, and in which concrete historicalcontexts to form specific discourses and policies of the "timepolitics" in both German states.     

PROBING "DONT KNOW" ANSWERS: EFFECTS ON SURVEY ESTIMATES AND VARIABLE RELATIONSHIPS

Don't Know responses to survey questions are ambiguous becausethe same words are used by respondents to mean different things—ignorance,indecision, or uncertainty about the meaning of the questionasked. In order to clarify the meaning of such answers, surveyinterviewers are frequently trained to probe Don't Know answersat least once before the answer is considered final. We arguethat unconditional probing of Don't Know answers may not bea desirable practice, particularly as regards knowledge items.Large unintended effects on responses to four knowledge itemsresulted when two groups of interviewers, who administered thesame survey questions, probed Don't Know responses at differentrates. Strong evidence is provided in the article that the probingof Don't Know answers encouraged guesswork on the part of uninformedrespondents, giving rise to significant distributional differencesand differences in means across half samples for the affectedvariables. However, relationships between variables appear tobe largely unaffected by probing effects. In order to formulatevalid probing guidelines for interviewer training, further researchis needed to establish whether the findings for knowledge questionsgeneralize to factual questions.     

The Bene‐Anthony Family Relations Test

David, aged twelve, is seated comfortably at a long desk. Arrayed in front of him, within easy reach, are twelve outline drawings of people attached to little cardboard boxes, which serve as bases and have slots at the top for the ‘posting’ of message cards. David has chosen the figures from a larger range that I set out before him at the start of our session, to represent the members of his family. The drawings vary in size, shape, clothing, and hairstyle, but the faces are empty of other features. David found it easy to recognise the figures as adult males and females, plus boys and girls of various ages. The empty faces allowed him to choose figures for each family member, without needing to search for a photographic likeness. The same set of figures used by David can thus be employed by other children to represent their own unique set of family members. David is about to enter the world of the Family Relations Test.     

The Possibility of Mixed-Mode Surveys in Sociological Studies

Abstract:  This paper explores the possibility of the mixed-mode survey in Japan in order to ensure a wider range of respondents, focusing on the specific type of mixture that is designed to make contact with a respondent by more than one mode and in which a respondent can choose an alternative mode convenient for him or her. The dataset mainly used comes from the survey Study on the Social Composition of the Urban Local Community conducted in Shinagawa Ward of Tokyo in 1999. Three other studies are introduced for additional information. As an indicator of the effectiveness of a mixed-mode design, the response rates of four studies are examined and some improvement in the response rates is observed, compared to that of a single-mode design. Another indicator is the representativeness of a sample and it is evaluated using the data of the Shinagawa survey. When the discrepancy between valid respondents and the population on some demographic characteristics is regarded as representation bias, a mixed-mode design is found to reduce the bias. An inherent problem in a mixed-mode design is "mode effect." In order to control for the mode effect in analyses, the inclusion of an additional variable indicating "mode" in the model is recommended. It is further suggested that the interaction effects between the "mode" and the respondents' traits should be checked, on the assumption that the survey mode affects respondents differently. The attempts are made and discussed in this paper using two variables drawn from the Shinagawa survey.     

Collisions Between Institutional and Populist Risk Imaginaries: The “Dark Side” of Negative Asymmetric Thinking

Expert knowledge informs the construction of public problems from gun violence to disease epidemics to climate change, and institutional actors draw on this knowledge to implement public policy to mitigate or repair the related harms. The expanding role of experts and institutions in managing risks has come at a time of declining public trust in institutions and a legitimacy crisis around expert knowledge. What happens when these tendencies collide? Previous scholarship has examined how disaster arises through failures of foresight, and how cultural‐cognitive biases can prevent actors from seeing disasters coming. Less is known about the mobilization of resistance against risk management policies. This theoretical essay examines a particular category of that resistance: conspiracist discourse that frames risk as emanating primarily from perceived secret agendas of institutions and experts that explicitly claim to be acting in the public interest. This essay argues that conspiracy thinking can be best understood as rooted in a “populist risk imaginary,” which is rooted in negative asymmetry, a cultural‐cognitive bias that foregrounds the possibility of worst‐case outcomes. Conspiracy discourse can be understood as the “dark side” of negative asymmetry, which is otherwise used by service‐oriented professionals to sharpen their foresight in preempting future dangers.     

Hair loss and electability: The bald truth

This study probes one particular component of the well documented linkage between personal appearance and impression formation by investigating the extent to which and the mechanisms through which bald and balding men are underrepresented in high elective office. Study 1 compares the prevalence of hair loss among governors and members of Congress, on the one hand, and the general public, on the other, and concludes that officeholders are much more likely to have a full head of hair than would be expected of men of their age. Study 2 poses an experimental test of voter bias against bald and balding candidates by presenting voters in a simulated congressional race with materials depicting otherwise identical candidates in either their natural bald or balding condition or wearing a professionally fitted hairpiece. No voter bias against bald or balding candidates is apparent, a finding that suggests that the causal mechanism underlying underrepresentation of bald and balding men is not voter bias.Ugly is a field without grass, a plant without leaves, or a head without hair (Ovid, quoted by Klenhard, 1986, p. 11).Politics represents an area of public life in which the effects of appearance may lead to very important social consequences and in which the idea of special privilege for the pretty is particularly repellent (Efran and Patterson, 1975, p. 352).The authors thank Judee Burgoon, Michael Burgoon, and Carol Sigelman for useful comments and suggestions, and Brandt Baker, Henry Ewbank, Jeff Gardner, Henry Kenski, Dan Singer, and David Williams for their assistance with this project.     

“NEW” PUBLIC INVESTMENT AND/OR PUBLIC CAPITAL MAINTENANCE FOR GROWTH? THE CANADIAN EXPERIENCE

The article revisits the relationship between growth and public productive expenditures by investigating the growth impact of "new" public investment along with maintenance expenditures in public capital. We sketch out the importance of these components of public capital expenditures for growth and then use survey data from Canada to assess the impact of these variables on Canadian growth. We find evidence that the Canadian economy would benefit from a fall in total public capital expenditures and from a reallocation between new public investment and maintenance expenditures. We also identify the growth impact of the associated sectoral public capital expenditures. (JEL E22 , E62 , H21 , H54 )