条件自回归利率下缴费预定型企业年金保险的生存年金精算现值模型

本文利用时间序列理论将投资利率为条件AR(1)模型推广为条件AR(p)模型,并利用生存年金理论得到缴费预定型企业年金保险中相应利率下的生存年金精算现值模型,这对解决企业合理发放养老金,避免企业养老基金出现赤字等问题具有重要理论指导意义和实际应用价值.     

基于代际交叠模型的养老保险机制比较

该文以代际交叠模型为基本分析工具,对两种养老保险机制完全基金制与现收现付制进行了分析,并比较了两种养老保险模式对储蓄和资本存量的影响。     

养老金统筹账户与个人账户最优组合策略研究

本文使用投资组合理论对养老金统筹账户与个人账户的最优组合策略进行研究。为此,我们首先分析了确定性条件下的账户选择问题,然后,在随机假设下对不同账户的收益进行精算建模,在此基础上构建了养老金账户最优组合模型,最后,对上述模型进行了数值求解。研究表明：（1）统筹账户与个人账户的收益负相关,二者的组合能够形成一个有效的风险对冲机制;（2）混合制的有效边界在现收现付制和累积制的上方,因此,从风险-收益的角度讲,混合制优于单一养老金制度;（3）与最优账户组合相比,现行统筹账户的占比偏高,个人账户占比偏低。本文的政策含义在于,适当的降低现行统筹账户的占比,提高个人账户的占比能够降低养老金账户的风险水平,增加账户的收益。     

中国养老保险制度改革的短期政策选择

养老保险制度改革是关乎当前中国经济发展的紧迫问题,选择有效的短期政策非常重要.本文首先分析了与养老保险密切相关的国有企业改革和有中国特色的人口老龄化,在此基础上,结合中国养老保险改革现状,指出由现收现付制向部分基金制的转轨可以适当放缓,短期内的改革措施应主要着眼于改善并充分利用实际存在的现收现付制,并探讨了在这一过程中需要注意的问题.     

我国养老保险转制成本问题探析

为了应付人口老龄化可能引发的养老保险支付危机,并充分发挥现收现付制和完全积累制各自所具有的优点,我国养老保险从现收现付制向统帐结合制转轨,这就意味着政府率先单方面废除了计划经济体制下的隐性契约,打破了传统体制下职工投入——收益模式,导致"老人"个人账户无资金积累,"中人"个人账户资金积累严重不足。而这部分由隐性契约所形成的政府隐性负债现实地构成我国养老保险制度的转制成本,本文拟从转制成本的概念、规模、产生原因、以及解决方式来做一些探索。     

应通过国企分红补足养老金缺口

当前中国社保体系首要的关键症结是由现收现付制向个人账户储存基金积累制转型所带来的巨额资金缺口问题。因此，补足当前社保体系的巨额资金缺口是破局人口老龄化下老有所养压力和完善中国社保体系的必要条件     

补充医疗保险的障碍期权定价方法及其应用

本文将期权理论引入并应用到医疗保险领域,克服传统损失分布法的局限性,为医疗保险精算提供新颖的分析工具和全新的研究视角。运用供给与需求的一般经济均衡分析将期权定价和精算定价统一于医疗保险精算领域,从精算技术与期权定价整合的视角提出医疗保险精算的供需均衡原理,并利用帕累托最优保险定价公式推导出经典Black-Scholes期权定价模型,缓解期权定价模型在医疗保险领域的应用障碍;利用障碍期权定价思想,标准期权定价模型、棘轮期权定价模型的推导思路,设计和构建含有免赔额、赔偿限额和共付比例的补充医疗保险障碍期权定价模型;最后将理论研究成果应用于我国医疗改革和医疗保险实践,测算补充医疗保险纯保费,丰富我国补充医疗保险定价方法的研究。     

中国企业年金缴费率的模拟分析

企业年金在多支柱养老保险体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用.以个人账户为研究对象,为我国企业年金建立了精算平衡模型.文章在精算平衡模型的基础上,运用模拟的方法,对企业年金的缴费率进行了测算分析.并根据模拟的结果,对2004年5月1日开始实施的<企业年金试行办法>中缴费率的规定进行了讨论,为企业年金的发展和政策制定提供了建议.     

中国基本养老保险基金缺口的测算及分析

1997年,国务院颁发《关于建立统一的企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》,中国新型养老保险制度形成,由现收现付制到部分累计制的转变;2005年,国务院颁发《关于完善企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》,完善我国养老金发放机制。在此基础上,利用基本养老保险基金缺口模型,分别对我国男女职工基本养老保险基金缺口进行测算,对影响基金缺口的因素进行弹性分析,得出影响基金缺口的主要因素,并针对这些影响给予一定的策略及措施。     

我国养老保险基金运作现状的Granger因果检验及成因分析

国际上现有的养老保险基金筹资模式主要体现在3种养老保险体系中——现收现付制、完全基金制和混合制。自我国开始进行养老保险制度改革以来,对不同的养老模式进行了广泛的讨论。1997年我国确立了统帐结合的部分积累制以来,改革的结果却背离了政府改革的初衷,理想中的统筹模式不能按照预定的目标发展,使统筹结合的保障体系不能落于实处,其结果并未改变“现收现付制”的实质(封进,2004)。对此,本文从我国养老保险基金的运行现状出发,分析其产生问题的内部成因,希望对政府决策有所帮助。(一)我国养老保险基金不能保值增值的实证分析1.变量选取…     

Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System

Multiple hazard resilience is of significant practical value because most regions of the world are subject to multiple natural and technological hazards. An analysis and assessment approach for multiple hazard spatiotemporal resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems is developed using network theory and a numerical analysis. First, we define multiple hazard resilience and present a quantitative probabilistic metric based on the expansion of a single hazard deterministic resilience model. Second, we define a multiple hazard relationship analysis model with a focus on the impact of hazards on an infrastructure. Subsequently, a relationship matrix is constructed with temporal and spatial dimensions. Further, a general method for the evaluation of direct impacts on an individual infrastructure under multiple hazards is proposed. Third, we present an analysis of indirect multiple hazard impacts on interdependent infrastructures and a joint restoration model of an infrastructure system. Finally, a simplified two‐layer interdependent infrastructure network is used as a case study for illustrating the proposed methodology. The results show that temporal and spatial relationships of multiple hazards significantly influence system resilience. Moreover, the interdependence among infrastructures further magnifies the impact on resilience value. The main contribution of the article is a new multiple hazard resilience evaluation approach that is capable of integrating the impacts of multiple hazard interactions, interdependence of network components (layers), and restoration strategy.     

The effects of macroeconomic developments on individual companies' flows of funds

A system of models is described which traces the impact on individual companies' finances of changing the macroeconomic environment. This system comprises models of individual firms integrated with Cambridge's large-scale disaggregated model of the UK economy. Illustrative projections are provided for the period 1980–1988 for three companies under alternative exchange rate and interest rate assumptions; a balance sheet, income appropriation account and funds flow statement is generated for each company-year and each assumption. These case studies illustrate how sensitive companies' finances can be to changes in the macroeconomic environment and also how dissimilar can be the response of different companies' flows of funds to the same macroeconomic change.     

个人账户与个人所得税激励联动对养老金替代率的影响

本文针对养老保险资金来源不足问题,提出了将一部分个人所得税转入到养老保险个人账户的思路,既弥补养老保险缴费不足,又可提高人们缴纳个人所得税积极性,且有助于机关事业单位养老保险改革试点方案的顺利实施。并在此思路上针对现行的企业养老保险计发办法上建立了精算模型,比较分析了个人所得税转入与不转入养老金个人账户情形下不同工资水平及其增长率、不同的基金累积利率、不同的退休年龄对个人账户养老保险水平的影响。     

Coordinability and Consistency in Accident Causation and Prevention: Formal System Theoretic Concepts for Safety in Multilevel Systems

Although a “system approach” to accidents in sociotechnical systems has been frequently advocated, formal system theoretic concepts remain absent in the literature on accident analysis and system safety. To address this gap, we introduce the notions of coordinability and consistency from the hierarchical and multilevel systems theory literature. We then investigate the applicability and the importance of these concepts to accident causation and safety. Using illustrative examples, including the worst disaster in aviation history, and recent incidents in the United States of aircraft clipping each other on the tarmac, we propose that the lack of coordinability is a fundamental failure mechanism causing or contributing to accidents in multilevel systems. We make a similar case for the lack of consistency. Coordinability and consistency become ingredients for accident prevention, and their absence fundamental failure mechanisms that can lead to system accidents. Finally, using the concepts introduced in this work, we identify several venues for further research, including the development of a theory of coordination in multilevel systems, the investigation of potential synergies between coordinability, consistency, and the high reliability organizations paradigm, and the possibility of reframing the view that “sloppy management is the root cause of many industrial accidents” as one of lack of coordinability and/or consistency between management and operations. By introducing and expanding on the concepts of coordinability and consistency, we hope to contribute to the thinking about, and the to language of, accident causation, and prevention and to add to the intellectual toolkit of safety professionals and academics.     

网购快递物流服务系统测评的枝模型仿真

以网购环境为背景,运用物流服务理论与系统动力学理论,通过对快递物流服务的流程分析,构建网购快递物流服务系统测评体系,对此体系和物流服务质量这一主变量分别进行了因果关系分析,进而构建了物流服务质量下的配送及时率这一附属变量的系统动力学枝模型,并对模型进行了量纲化检验、敏感性检验以及极端条件测试以证明模型的正确性;在此基础上,将申通、圆通、中通以及韵达四家快递企业的数据运用到Vensim软件对枝模型进行实证仿真并得出以此变量为根据的快递企业排名,为网购快递物流服务的测评提供一种新的方法。     

随机扰动下激励系统的分岔与控制研究

为研究激励系统分岔现象的控制问题,首先基于系统理论,分析激励系统的整体涌现性、非线性、鲁棒性和稳定性问题,运用随机非线形理论中的随机平均法和随机过程理论研究了激励系统的随机扰动和分岔问题,提出参数临界状态下,激励系统分岔平衡点稳定性方程,并进一步给出系统存在跨临界分岔和奇异诱导分岔的充分条件。最后,设计反馈控制器,通过控制能量和调整平衡点,抑制激励分岔,使系统趋于稳定。     

From primacy to purpose commitment: How emerging profit-with-purpose corporations open new corporate governance avenues

This paper aims at contributing to corporate governance theory by developing a model of governance that takes into account a recent legal innovation: the introduction of purpose-driven legal business forms in the corporate law of several countries. Current debates in such theory oppose models that grant “primacy” (i.e., ultimate control rights) to different constituencies. The resulting uncertainty proves problematic in the face of new, urgent social and environmental stakes that are difficult to represent in traditional governance bodies. Newly adopted profit-with-purpose corporate forms' introduction of a “purpose” in corporate contracts renews these debates. We show that through the “purpose commitment” model it enables, the distribution of control rights in the governance system is decoupled from the objectives assigned to the corporation. This new approach renews the formal role of management, and corporations’ accountability to society. We explore the theoretical, practical, and political consequences of this new model.     

不同信息透明度对分销系统及各成员的影响

考虑由一个供应商和多个零售商组成的分销系统。研究高、中、低三种不同信息透明度模式下系统的最优补货及分配策略以及相应的系统和各个零售商的期望成本。证明无论从系统的角度还是从零售商的角度,并非信息透明度越高,期望成本越低。从整个系统的角度来讲,虽然系统的期望成本总在高信息透明度模式下取得最低,但是,中低两种信息透明度模式谁取得第二低的系统期望成本取决于系统内各节点之间的距离以及零售商所面对客户需求的性质。从零售商的角度,高信息透明度并不能降低零售商的期望成本。零售商是否可以从较高的信息透明度水平中获益则取决于零售商在送货路线上所处的位置,系统内各节点之间的距离,以及零售商所面对客户需求的性质。     

合约回收制对闭环供应链影响分析

为了提高再制造闭环供应链的运作效率,文章设计了新的回收方式——合约回收制,并研究了这种回收方式对消费者、企业和整体供应链的影响。在新产品和再造品同时存在的混合市场前提下,文章主要讨论了制造商(M模式)、经销商(R模式)和第三方回收商(3P模式)各自为回收再造主体时,合约回收制对产品定价、回收率、行业规模等因素的影响。研究结果表明:(1)消费者受益于合约回收制;(2)合约回收制壮大了闭环供应链的规模;(3)回收率与再造品评价成正比,与新产品评价成反比,其中R模式和3P模式中回收率因合约回收制而提高;(4)制造商均受益于合约回收制,但经销商和第三方需满足部分条件才可获益。