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The decline of human fertility that occurred in Europe and North America in the nineteenth century, and elsewhere in the twentieth, remains a topic of debate largely because there is no accepted explanation for the event. This paper uses district-level data from Bavaria to study the correlates of the decline of fertility in that German kingdom in the nineteenth century. Bavaria's fertility transition was later and less dramatic than in other parts of Germany. Our results for Bavaria indicate that the European Fertility Project was right about the role of religion and secularization, but missed an important role for the economic and structural effects stressed by economic historians.  相似文献   

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The focus of this selected bibliography is on print, aural, and visual resources dealing with gay males, lesbians, and the mass media. Listings were selected on the basis of their perceived value to scholarly researchers and interested members of the more general public. Individual news stories, reviews of specific films or television programs, and coverage of gay males and lesbians in the theatre and arts are not included. While references to popular music were sought, only a few items were located and are included. There were two major obstacles confronted when compiling this bibliography. First, much of the media of the gay and lesbian communities in the United States is not indexed. Second, very few libraries subscribe to many of the more popular and important print resources (e.g., Advocate, Gay Community News) on the topics of focus. Even more inaccessible are regional publications and literature that focus on erotica but often include valuable items on the gay and lesbian communities as well.  相似文献   

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A review of evidence on infant mortality derived from the London bills of mortality and parish registers indicates that there were major registration problems throughout the whole of the parish register period. One way of addressing these problems is to carry out reconstitution studies of individual London parishes, but there are a number of problems with reconstitution methodology, including the traffic in corpses between parishes both inside and outside of London and the negligence of clergymen in registering both baptisms and burials. In this paper the triangulation of sources has been employed to measure the adequacy of burial registration, including the comparison of data from bills of mortality, parish registers and probate returns, as well as the use of the same-name technique. This research indicates that between 20 and 40 per cent of burials went unregistered in London during the parish register period.  相似文献   

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The recent rise in identification with American political parties has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party support. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces that will produce a natural advantage for the Democrats in the future, while conservative writers highlight the importance of high fertility amongst Republicans in securing growth. These opinions are not based on demographic analysis. We addressed this omission by undertaking the first ever cohort component projection (up to 2043) of populations by American party allegiance, based on survey and census data. On current trends, we predict that American partisanship will change much less than the nation's ethnic composition because the parties are similar in age structure. Nevertheless, our projections suggest that the Democrats will gain 2-3 per cent more support than the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, although the higher fertility of Republicans may eventually offset that advantage.  相似文献   

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While researchers have often found that Europeans who report faith-based beliefs or practices have larger families than those who do not, there is a lack of evidence on the reasons for these links. This study investigated whether having a first child affects parents' level of church attendance and whether the frequency of church attendance at different times in life predicts a person's (almost) completed fertility. Drawing on five waves of a large-scale Dutch panel survey, the study used data that cover a substantial part of the respondents' reproductive period (1987-2005). In contrast to findings from the USA, the results suggest a one-way influence: having a first child does not predict a change in church attendance, but church attendance is a strong predictor of future childbearing.  相似文献   

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This article draws together research insights on marriage in the U.S. to argue that over the last 40 years we are able to see an active engagement with neoliberalism in discussions on the subject. Using discourse analysis, I consider how the underlying assumptions that inform the key concepts of autonomy, individualism, responsibility, and universality have been re-semanticized through neoliberal ideology to change the ways that Americans think of marriage (and themselves). In light of these changed assumptions, this article urges a reexamination of the activism and identity politics around marriage as well as further academic research on the topic.  相似文献   

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Summary This article is a study of the demographic behaviour of women college graduates in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century America. The nuptiality and fertility patterns of this group of highly educated women are described, and several explanations of their 'unusual' behaviour are evaluated. Marriage rates of women college graduates declined during the second half of the nineteenth century, even as more women attended college. Only about half the women graduating during the 1890s ever married. Still, the number of children ever born per alumna only varied between 1.0 and 1.5 for the graduation classes of 1865 to 1910. An explanation based on changing labour market opportunities for educated men and women best explains this population's demographic patterns over time as well as their deviations from those of other women in their birth cohort.  相似文献   

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This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship between fertility and women's employment. This is done by a cross-national comparison of macro-level time-series data from 1960 to 2000 for France, West Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time-series techniques) we find causality in both directions. This finding is consistent with simultaneous movements of both variables brought about by common exogenous factors such as social norms, social institutions, financial incentives, and the availability and acceptability of contraception. We find a negative and significant correlation until about the mid-1970s and an insignificant or weaker negative correlation afterwards. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis in the demographic literature according to which changes in the institutional context, such as changes in childcare availability and attitudes towards working mothers, might have reduced the incompatibility between child-rearing and the employment of women.  相似文献   

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