Campaign Fundraising in State Supreme Court Elections*

Objective. What factors affect the ability of candidates for state supreme courts to raise money? In this article, I test (and expand) existing theories of political fundraising (taken largely from legislative studies) in the context of judicial elections. Methods. I examine the determinants of campaign contributions to all candidates running for the state supreme court from 1990–2000 in states that have competitive judicial elections. Most basically, I hypothesize that a candidate's ability to raise money is dependent on characteristics of the candidate, the state electoral and supreme court context, and institutional arrangements. Results. The results suggest that candidates who have a greater probability of success than their opponents are better able to raise money. Yet, all is not within the control of the candidates, as the electoral context of the state and the court as well as the institutional arrangements of the election and the court are also relevant. Conclusions. Campaign fundraising by state supreme court candidates, much like fundraising by legislative candidates, can be understood in systematic and predictable ways. Candidates have some control over the amount of money that they are able to raise (and thus their electoral viability), although there is little they can do about the electoral and supreme court context. Additionally, institutional arrangements play a large role in raising campaign funds, suggesting that there is not much reformers can do to limit the amount of money involved in elections short of eradicating elections altogether.     

Women's Representation on State Trial and Appellate Courts*

Objective. This article examines the factors affecting women's representation at each level of the state judiciary. Methods. Using extended beta‐binomial and Poisson models, this article determines the effects of judicial selection, state ideology, and the pool of women eligible to serve on state trial and appellate courts. Results. I find that the pool of women eligible to serve, state ideology, and some methods of judicial selection affect the number of women serving on state courts. Conclusions. By modeling the process on the two courts differently, I find that the factors affecting trial courts are not necessarily the same as those affecting women's representation on appellate courts. Because of the differences in the two levels of the judiciary, future analysis should consider how these two levels influence individual decisions to seek a seat on state courts.     

Do Term Limits Help Women Get Elected?

Objective . We examine the proposition put forward by term limit advocates and some scholars that the implementation of term limits will lead to increases in the numbers of women serving in state legislatures. Methods . Data are examined for all state house races in the six states that implemented term limits in 1998. Results . Although there was some variation across the states, the overall number of women serving in state house seats that were term-limited actually decreased following the election. Conclusions . More research is needed as more states implement term limits in future elections. However, our analysis suggests that term limits, unaccompanied by efforts to recruit women to run for term-limited seats, may be insufficient to increase the number of women state legislators.     

Bias at the Ballot Box? Testing Whether Candidates' Gender Affects Their Vote*

Objective. This study examines whether women's electoral fortunes in Australia have improved in line with changing social norms over the past century. We use new strategies to explore whether female candidates face discrimination by the voting public, or by political parties' preselection systems. Methods. Using data from all elections to the House of Representatives between 1903 and 2004, we examine the relationship between candidates' gender and their share of the vote. We consider the electoral performances of female independent candidates, female incumbents, and female candidates from the Australian Labor Party (after 2001) in order to determine whether the bias against female candidates is driven by voters or preselectors. We also make use of gender pay gap and attitudinal data to examine how the ballot box penalty has shifted in line with changing social norms. Results. We find that the vote share of female candidates is 0.6 percentage points smaller than that of male candidates (for major parties, the gap widens to 1.5 percentage points), but find little evidence that the party preselection system is responsible for the voting bias against women. Over time, the gap between male and female candidates has shrunk considerably as a result of changes in social norms (as proxied by the gender pay gap and attitudinal data) and the share of female candidates running nationwide. Conclusions. A statistically significant gender penalty has been a consistent feature of Australian federal elections since 1903. The penalty against female candidates has narrowed since the 1980s, and this bias lies with the voting public rather than with the political parties themselves. We find little evidence that party‐based affirmative action policies have reduced the gender penalty against female candidates.     

The Impact of Candidate Sex on Evaluations of Candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives*

Objectives. To examine how voters and the general public evaluate women candidates by examining ideological and issue‐based evaluations of women candidates for the House of Representatives. Methods. Data are drawn from the National Election Study for all U.S. House elections from 1990 to 2000. OLS and logistic regression models examining the role of candidate sex in evaluations are tested. Results. When evaluating Democratic candidates, people see them as more liberal and utilize more female issues in their evaluations when the candidate is a woman. For Republican candidates, candidate sex is much less likely to be related to how people evaluate them. Conclusion. The central role of party in public evaluations of women candidates suggests that the impact of candidate sex on voters is more complex than previous works have suggested.     

The Effects of Candidate Gender on Campaign Spending in State Legislative Elections*

Objective. This article will investigate whether candidate gender affects levels of campaign spending in state legislative elections. Methods. The analysis compares men and women candidates running for the state legislature in 20 states over two election cycles. By controlling for a range of contextual factors, the analysis isolates the independent influence of candidate gender. Results. The findings demonstrate that women and men spend similar levels of campaign funding in running for the state legislature. Running as incumbents, challengers, or open‐seat candidates, women are not at a financial disadvantage relative to similarly situated men candidates in the general election. Conclusions. Although women may suffer difficulties at other parts of the electoral process, women are not at a disadvantage relative to men in how much money their campaigns ultimately allocate for the purposes of gaining voter support.     

Fusion ballots as a candidate-centered reform: Evidence from Oregon

This article argues that fusion balloting, or the ability of multiple parties to nominate a single candidate for office, can be viewed as a candidate-centered and incumbent-oriented reform. Using the recent passage of fusion legislation in Oregon in 2009 and its subsequent use in 2010 state legislative elections as a test case, I study the factors behind supporting fusion legislation in both chambers of the state legislature and how these same factors affected, or did not affect, the incumbents that received cross-nominations in the 2010 elections. Overall, I find that party did not play a direct role in determining which legislators supported fusion, though female legislators were less supportive. When it came to obtaining nominations, the main finding is that incumbent candidates who voted yes to fusion were generally more likely to receive nominations. Still, legislators from the group that most opposed fusion, Democratic women, attempted to win cross-nominations once the 2010 elections approached. These findings suggest that candidate factors, more than party dictates, affected support for fusion and the ability of incumbents to receive cross-endorsements. Thus, the willingness of major-party candidates to adopt fusion can be understood through theories of candidate-centered elections and political parties.     

The roll-off effect in judicial retention elections

Because of the absence of powerful traditional voting cues and the unusual nature and format of uncontested judicial retention elections, a large number of voters deliberately fail to cost ballots in retention elections. Filling a void in the study of retention elections, this study empirically examines the voter roll-off in 1,864 retention elections for major trial court judges for the period 1964–1984. The mean roll-off for these elections was 36.2%. Voter roll-off was found to be positively related to district size and number of counties in a judicial district. These trial court retention elections exhibit mixed relationships for different types of elections. Although in presidential and nonpresidential elections there is clear surge and decline in voter turnout, there is no corresponding surge and decline in roll-off. However, close retention elections have less roll-off than nonclose elections.     

Plurality Rule Works In Three-Candidate Elections

In the citizen–candidate approach each citizen chooses whether or not to run as candidate. In a single-peaked preference domain, we find that the strategic entry decision of the candidates eliminates one of the most undesirable properties of Plurality rule, namely to elect a poor candidate in three-candidate elections since as we show, the Condorcet winner among the self-declared candidates is always elected. We find that the equilibria with three candidates are basically 2-fold, either there are two right-wing candidates and a left-wing candidate who wins the elections (or its symmetric), or there is a right-wing candidate, a left-wing candidate, and a candidate located in between the two others who becomes winner. We also show that when four or more candidates enter the contest, Plurality rule can elect the Condorcet-loser among the self-declared candidates.      

Assessing the value of state legislative experience and legislative professionalism in national election performance, 1974–2010

State legislative experience and chamber professionalism have been shown to benefit state legislators as they decide and prepare to run for national office in American Congressional elections. Yet, what are the effects of these two factors on national election performance? I test the implications from the literature that state legislative experience and chamber professionalism should impact national election outcomes on all two-party contested elections from 1974 to 2010. I find that state legislative experience enhances candidates’ vote shares, though differently for different candidates. Yet, surprisingly professionalism plays no moderating role. Such effects present at the earlier stages of elections wash out as elections come to a close.     

Does Seniority Matter? The Conditional Influence of State Methods of Judicial Retention*

Objective. Capitalizing on attention directed to judicial agreement and the associated consequences of judicial elections, this article conducts an examination of the effects of seniority and state methods of judicial retention on decisions by state supreme court justices to dissent. Methods. Using data drawn from the State Supreme Court Data Archive, this research analyzes decisions by individual justices to dissent in 33,582 tort cases from 1995 to 1998. GEE logistic analysis with cases as the clustering unit is the estimation procedure. Results. While the seniority of justices is positively connected to dissent, the findings illustrate that seniority's effect is nuanced and conditioned by a state's method of judicial retention. The impact of a justice's seniority relative to his or her colleagues is most powerful in appointive courts where justices serve without fear of electoral retaliation. Alternatively, within elective courts, justices respond to elections by pursuing a consensual approach regardless of their seniority. Conclusion. The dissent characteristics of justices in state supreme courts are intricately tied to the length of careers and the methods by which states keep justices in office.     

The Continuing Dominance of Traditional Gender Roles in Southern Elections*

Objective. Studies of the election of women to public office have been increasingly encouraging about their prospects of female candidates. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which gender roles continue to influence the election of women to local office and the pool of candidates for higher office. Methods. Utilizing data on the gender of officials, the nature of the office, and constituency demographics from county elections in eight Southern states, we construct logit models of the election of women. Results. Women hold few local offices involved in fighting crime or of an executive nature. On the other hand, women routinely win election to process‐oriented offices with less discretion. Our analysis of constituency demographics reinforces our conclusions. Women win election in areas where the public office is relatively undesirable compared to other opportunities and the ratio of high‐quality male to high‐quality female candidates is relatively low. Conclusions. Although the frequent election of women to county office provides an expanded pool of female candidates for higher offices, it seems unlikely that women will find it as easy to move up the electoral ladder into the more competitive arena of high‐profile statewide and federal leadership offices.     

Equality of recruitment: Gender parity in French National Assembly elections

This research centers on the effects of the newly mandated gender parity on French electoral politics. We examine the results from the 2002 National Assembly elections. Our findings suggest that this Parity Law contributed to the modest increase in the number of female deputies elected to the National Assembly, but that the electoral success rate for female candidates declined from the previous elections in 1997. This result appears to have been affected by two factors: (1) a greater-than-average number of female candidates were affiliated with the Socialist party—the party that lost control of the government in this election and (2) many female candidates were running against male incumbents. Multivariate analysis suggests that, after these two factors are controlled for, female candidates were more likely to be elected in open seat contests than were male candidates. Preliminary analysis of roll call votes in the two most recent (1997–2004) legislative sessions suggests that party, not gender, is the main determinant of voting behavior.     

State-level personality and presidential vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections

Recent research has examined how variation across the states in the “Big Five” personality trait taxonomy helps explain the proportion of votes the presidential candidates receive in the states, concluding that state personality traits had a direct effect on presidential vote share in the 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential elections. The current study has three goals: First, to examine the influence of personality traits on Barack Obama's vote share in the 2008 and 2012 elections; second to test whether the influence of personality traits on vote share holds under stricter controls for political factors and white racial prejudice; and, third, to test for potential meditating effects of state-level political characteristics and white racial prejudice in linking state-level personality traits with Obama's vote share. The findings indicate that two state personality traits – conscientiousness and openness – had indirect effects on Obama's 2008 and 2012 vote share through their influence on state ideology, partisanship, and white racial prejudice.     

How far does the gender gap extend?: Decision making on state Supreme Courts in Fourth Amendment Cases, 1980–2000

The importance of women on the bench and the influence of gender on judicial decision making has garnered much scholarly attention. We examine the voting behavior of male and female justices in 718 Fourth Amendment search and seizure votes cast on state Supreme Courts between 1980 and 2000. We find that women justices, controlling for institutional, political, and legal constraints, are more likely to rule in favor of the criminal defendant than their male brethren in cases decided after 1991 but not before. We also find women justices serving with female colleagues are more inclined to render liberal votes. We conclude the influence of gender may be evident in a wider variety of cases than those dealing with women's lives but that this influence is dependent upon the existence of a critical mass of women on the state court benches.     

Red states,blue states: How well do the recent national election labels capture state political and policy differences?

The alleged polarization between the so-called red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) states during the presidential elections has been examined using only voter surveys. Focusing on the recent thirteen national elections from 1964 to 2012, we examine social, political, institutional, and policy indicators of the 50 American states to (1) gauge the extent to which national election results reflect significant policy and political differences between the red and blue states and (2) to assess the explanatory power of the dichotomous red–blue label relative to a continuous variable of “redness” or “blueness” by the percentage of votes received. We find substantial political and some moderate social differences between red and blue states but fewer institutional and policy differences than one would expect if there were actually deep divisions between the states. We find that the red–blue state distinction performs well when compared to the explanatory power of the more precise redness or blueness of a state.     

All Politics is Not Local: National Forces in State Abortion Initiatives

Objective. Although research suggests that national forces can play a role in local and state elections, most of this work has only recently begun to examine the potential role of national forces in state or local ballot initiative or referenda elections. Methods. Our research addresses this gap in the literature by exploring the influence of national forces, such as the timing of elections, Supreme Court rulings, the activities of interest groups, and public opinion, on state direct legislation elections. We incorporate national forces into the morality politics framework and derive specific hypotheses. We then test these hypotheses by conducting a multivariate analysis of county–level voting patterns across 16 abortion–related direct legislation elections. Results. Our results confirm most of the hypotheses derived from the morality politics framework, including those concerning the role of national forces. Conclusions. Voting patterns on abortion tend to be influenced by the presence of presidential elections, Supreme Court rulings, interest–group activity, public opinion, partisanship, college education, and conservative religious forces. We discuss the implications of our findings for research on elections, abortion policy, and morality politics.     

Who won political elections in Hong Kong over time?

Addressing the question about who won in political elections in Hong Kong can reveal its trajectory of democratic development. Because a democracy requires fair representation in elected members, whose performance and ideological orientation can appeal to rational and ideologically sophisticated citizens, incumbents and partisans tend to be more successful in winning the democratic election. To examine this instance of democratic development, the study compiles a dataset including all candidates (3,811 cases) contesting for elections from 1982 to 2000. It finds the general trend that incumbents and partisans of some major parties were more likely to win the contests. Furthermore, it estimates the relative chance separately for 17 elections during the period and examines the influence of time. As a result, it detects that the favorable effects of incumbency and party affiliation tended to increase with time. These findings imply the steady democratic development in Hong Kong.     

The Unexpected Behavior of Plurality Rule

When voters’ preferences on candidates are mutually coherent, in the sense that they are at all close to being perfectly single-peaked, perfectly single-troughed, or perfectly polarized, there is a large probability that a Condorcet Winner exists in elections with a small number of candidates. Given this fact, the study develops representations for Condorcet Efficiency of plurality rule as a function of the proximity of voters’ preferences on candidates to being perfectly single-peaked, perfectly single-troughed or perfectly polarized. We find that the widely used plurality rule has Condorcet Efficiency values that behave in very different ways under each of these three models of mutual coherence.