Risk,ambiguity, and insurance

In a series of experiments, economically sophisticated subjects, including professional actuaries, priced insurance both as consumers and as firms under conditions of ambiguity. Findings support implications of the Einhorn-Hogarth ambiguity model: (1) For low probability-of-loss events, prices of both consumers and firms indicated aversion to ambiguity; (2) As probabilities of losses increased, aversion to ambiguity decreased, with consumers exhibiting ambiguity preference for high probability-of-loss events; and (3) Firms showed greater aversion to ambiguity than consumers. The results are shown to be incompatible with traditional economic analysis of insurance markets and are discussed with respect to the effects of ambiguity on the supply and demand for insurance.University of Chicago Graduate School of BusinessUniversity of Pennsylvania The Wharton School     

One-sided commitment in dynamic insurance contracts: Evidence from private health insurance in Germany

This paper studies long-term private health insurance (PHI) in Germany. It describes the main actuarial principles of premium calculation and relates these to existing theory. In the German PHI policyholders do not commit to renewing their insurance contracts, but insurers commit to offering renewal at a premium rate that does not reflect revealed future information about the insured risk. We show that empirical results are consistent with theoretical predictions from one-sided commitment models: front-loading in premiums generates a lock-in of consumers, and more front-loading is generally associated with lower rates of lapse. Due to a lack of consumer commitment, dynamic information revelation about risk type implies that high-risk policyholders are more likely to retain their PHI contracts than are low-risk types.     

How do people value extended warranties? Evidence from two field surveys

Extended warranties are popular but expensive. This paper examines how consumers value these warranties, and asks whether economic considerations alone can account for their popularity. Results from two field surveys show that consumers greatly overestimate both the likelihood and the cost of product breakdown. However, these biases alone do not explain their willingness to buy warranties. In fact, we find evidence of probability neglect, in which warranty purchase decision depends on the magnitude of the possible consequences of not having insurance and not on the probability of having to suffer these consequences. The expected emotional benefits from having a warranty was the best predictor of purchase decision and willingness to pay. We also found that people with higher cognitive skills are less likely to overestimate the economic determinants of warranty value, yet are still highly influenced by emotional considerations when deciding whether to purchase a warranty.     

不确定性防范与城市务工人员主观幸福感：基于反事实框架的研究

本文基于2007年中国家庭收入调查数据,评估了不确定性防范对城市务工人员的影响,并获得了一些重要发现：(1)不同类型的不确定性防范措施对影响居民主观幸福感存在着显著差异,参与养老保险、失业保险和工伤保险能够显著提高城市务工人员主观幸福感,但参与医疗保险对城市务工人员主观幸福感没有显著影响;(2)四种不确定性防范手段对城市务工人员之间主观幸福感差异的总贡献率接近10%,其中参与失业保险的贡献率最大。进一步研究发现,城市务工人员主观幸福感变化符合享乐适应理论,即随着不确定性防范措施的逐步实施推广,城市务工人员的主观幸福感可能会返回到未采取不确定性防范措施前的水平。     

Consumer Capital Market Constraints and Guaranteed Renewable Insurance

This paper analyzes a market in which individuals can purchase guaranteed renewable insurance policies to insure against the risk of loss in the current period and the risk of an increased probability of loss. Individuals who cannot borrow will purchase partially guaranteed renewable insurance at most. Relatively impatient individuals may purchase policies with no guaranteed renewability features. Without borrowing, the results are similar regardless of whether consumers can save.     

社会医疗保险对老年人健康水平的影响：基于浙江省的实证研究

本研究根据2010年浙江省城乡老年人口生活状况调查的数据认为,对于老年人的社会医疗保险问题,不仅要关注保险覆盖面的扩大,更应关注不同保险项目参保老人之间的健康平等。在揭示医疗服务使用与健康水平负向关系这一主效应的基础上,研究发现,职工医保作为moderator可以改善使用较多医疗服务老人的健康水平,新农合的作用则相反。研究希望对医疗保险的改革思路进行反思,全民医保的改革思路不仅是医疗服务可及性的提高,更应该是不同社群享有平等的医疗福利,并最终促进健康结果的平等。     

Ambiguity Aversion in the Field of Insurance: Insurers’ Attitude to Imprecise and Conflicting Probability Estimates

This article presents the results of a survey designed to test, with economically sophisticated participants, Ellsberg’s ambiguity aversion hypothesis, and Smithson’s conflict aversion hypothesis. Based on an original sample of 78 professional actuaries (all members of the French Institute of Actuaries), this article provides empirical evidence that ambiguity (i.e. uncertainty about the probability) affect insurers’ decision on pricing insurance. It first reveals that premiums are significantly higher for risks when there is ambiguity regarding the probability of the loss. Second, it shows that insurers are sensitive to sources of ambiguity. The participants indeed, charged a higher premium when ambiguity came from conflict and disagreement regarding the probability of the loss than when ambiguity came from imprecision (imprecise forecast about the probability of the loss). This research thus documents the presence of both ambiguity aversion and conflict aversion in the field of insurance, and discuses economic and psychological rationales for the observed behaviours.     

Ambiguity aversion in the small and in the large for weighted linear utility

The widely observed preference for lotteries involving precise rather than vague of ambiguous probabilities is called ambiguity aversion. Ambiguity aversion cannot be predicted or explained by conventional expected utility models. For the subjectively weighted linear utility (SWLU) model, we define both probability and payoff premiums for ambiguity, and introduce alocal ambiguity aversion function a(u) that is proportional to these ambiguity premiums for small uncertainties. We show that one individual's ambiguity premiums areglobally larger than another's if and only if hisa(u) function is everywhere larger. Ambiguity aversion has been observed to increase 1) when the mean probability of gain increases and 2) when the mean probability of loss decreases. We show that such behavior is equivalent toa(u) increasing in both the gain and loss domains. Increasing ambiguity aversion also explains the observed excess of sellers' over buyers' prices for insurance against an ambiguous probability of loss.     

Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem

Our “Restated diversification theorem” (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry—starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.     

Buying Insurance for Disaster-Type Risks: Experimental Evidence

This paper presents a series of experiments that confront subjects with low probability, high loss situations. A rich parameter set is examined and we find subjects respond to low probability, high loss risks in predictable ways. As loss events become more likely, or loss amounts get larger, or the cost of insurance falls, subjects are more likely to buy indemnifying insurance, even for the class of low probability risks that usually presents problems for standard expected utility theory. A novel application of Cameron's method to estimate willingness to pay from dichotomous choice responses allows us to estimate willingness to pay for insurance. We do not observe the bimodal distribution of bids found in other studies of similar risk situations.     

Why the Young Do Not Buy Long-Term Care Insurance

This paper explains why those individuals who purchase long-term care insurance usually postpone their decision until they reach the age of retirement. This behavior is shown to be rational if there are fixed costs of loading or if there is uncertainty about the costs of disability. Individuals with a low risk of becoming disabled before retirement may prefer to buy insurance late in order to avoid losses in expected income. However, if the probability of becoming disabled after retirement is uncertain, it is generally preferable to buy long-term care insurance early.     

Consumer processing of hazard warning information

Using data obtained from a field experiment involving 957 consumers, this study investigates the linkage between hazard warnings and precautionary behavior, as well as the structure of the information about product usage and risks that consumers store in their memories. Through the use of a methodology based on an open-ended memory recall task, we measure how consumer recall of information on product labels is affected by the type and format of the information and infer the structure by which this information is stored in their memory. The methodology also allows us to explore the importance of limitations on consumers' cognitive abilities. In particular, we find that consumers substitute greater recall of risk information for recall of usage information, indicating a tradeoff among the different types of information conveyed on a product label. We also found that in the case of cluttered labels, as typified by many existing product labels, information overload results, which may make labeling ineffective in achieving its intended informational objective.     

Probabilistic Insurance

Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic insurance should be very close to willingness to pay for standard insurance less the default risk. However, the reluctance to buy probabilistic insurance is predicted by the weighting function of prospect theory. This finding highlights the potential role of the weighting function to explain insurance.     

Is imprecise knowledge better than conflicting expertise? Evidence from insurers’ decisions in the United States

This paper reports the results of the first experiment in the United States designed to distinguish between two sources of ambiguity: imprecise ambiguity (expert groups agree on a range of probability, but not on any point estimate) versus conflict ambiguity (each expert group provides a precise probability estimate which differs from one group to another). The specific context is whether risk professionals (here, insurers) behave differently under risk (when probability is well-specified) and different types of ambiguity in pricing catastrophic risks (floods and hurricanes) and non-catastrophic risks (house fires). The data show that insurers charge higher premiums when faced with ambiguity than when the probability of a loss is well specified (risk). Furthermore, they tend to charge more for conflict ambiguity than imprecise ambiguity for flood and hurricane hazards, but less in the case of fire. The source of ambiguity also impacts causal inferences insurers make to reduce their uncertainty.     

Impact of internal migration on the economic well-being of local workers and school dropouts among children in Vietnam

This study examines the impact of migration on local workers and high school dropouts of local students. A conventional approach without addressing the endogeneity issue may lead to biased results. Our endogeneity-corrected estimates show a positive impact of migration on the monthly wages of local workers. A higher share of migrants increases the probability of local workers with employment contracts, social insurance, and holiday pay. Heterogeneity analysis shows that local workers, no matter their educational level, work experience, or occupation sectors, benefit from the inflow of migrants. Finally, migration inflow lowers the probability of high school dropouts among local students. Our findings resulting from rigorous statistical approaches suggest that internal migration produces positive impacts on the economic well-being of local residents, refuting the argument about the adverse effects associated with internal migration.     

The Fiscal Crisis of National Health Insurance in the Republic of Korea: In Search of a New Paradigm

In 2001, National Health Insurance (NHI) in Korea, the social insurance system for health care with universal population coverage, experienced a serious fiscal crisis as its accumulated surplus was depleted. This fiscal crisis is attributed to its chronic imbalance: health care expenditure has increased more rapidly than have insurance contributions. The recent failure in implementing pharmaceutical reform was a further blow to the deteriorating fiscal status of the NHI. Although the NHI has since recovered from the immediate fiscal crisis, this has mainly been because of a temporary increase in government subsidy into the NHI. The strong influence of the medical profession in health policy‐making remains a major barrier to the introduction of policy changes, such as a reform of the payment system to strengthen the fiscal foundations of the NHI. Korea also has to restructure its national health insurance in an era of very rapid population ageing. A new paradigm is called for in the governance of the NHI: to empower groups of consumers and payers in the policy and major decision‐making process of the NHI. The fiscal crisis in Korean national health insurance sheds light on the vulnerability of the social health insurance system to financial instability, the crucial role of provider payment schemes in health cost containment, the importance of governance in health policy, and the unintended burdens of health care reform on health care financing systems.     

The Family Law Act, 1975: One Consumer's Viewpoint

This is a paper about some of my experiences as a consumer of the Family Law Act, 1975. I decided to write about these experiences because few other consumers have done so. The literature in this area is dominated by the experts — the lawyers, the court counsellors, the social scientists. There is no formal provision for consumers' opinion to be considered. My personal experiences highlighted how different it was to be on the receiving end as a consumer in contrast to my academic understanding of the Family Law Act as a university educator. Unless consumers begin to voice their opinions loudly and clearly, we are not going to see further reforms to this legislation, and indeed the high expectations of the people who created the Family Law Act will not be realized. I believe my professional background, personal experiences and the time lapse since my case, afford me the opportunity to evaluate the effects of the Family Court upon me. In attempting to take a dispassionate view of this process, I hope others will take heart and write about their experiences too.     

Social Insurance Expansion and Political Regime Dynamics in Europe, 1880–1945*

Objectives. This article analyzes the causal relationship between political regime dynamics and social insurance expansion. I theorize that the social insurance expansion is the result of the ruling elites' strategic decision about regime change to dispel revolutionary motives. The key testable implication is that social insurance expansion is more likely to happen under a democratic regime, which, in turn, is influenced by the threat of social revolution evinced by strike activities. Methods. Using historical data on social insurance coverage from 12 European countries from 1880 to 1945, I test the hypothesis employing a treatment‐effects model that endogenizes democratization. Results. I find a positive association between social insurance expansion and democracy, controlling for other political mechanisms. Furthermore, I find that democratic transition is greatly influenced by the duration and intensity of strikes. Conclusion. This study suggests that social insurance expansion requires a link between a threat of revolution and democratization.     

Opinion leaders,independence, and Condorcet's Jury Theorem

Condorcet's Jury Theorem shows that on a dichotomous choice, individuals who all have the same competence above 0.5, can make collective decisions under majority rule with a competence that approaches 1 as either the size of the group or the individual competence goes up. The theorem assumes that the probability of each voter's being correct is independent of the probability of any other voter being correct. Contrary to several authors, the presence of mutual or common influences such as opinion leaders does not easily rule independence either in or out. Indeed, and this ought to be surprising,under certain conditions deference to opinion leaders can improve individual competence without violating independence, and so can raise group competence as well.     

“It's hard work,believe me!”: Active efforts to optimise housing by people who live with mental illness and access housing assistance

Secure and appropriate housing is critical for the well‐being of people living with mental illness (consumers). Yet it is often difficult to achieve. Housing assistance is available, but is often difficult for consumers to access and negotiate. While the need for support is well‐recognised, little is known about the active part consumers play in finding and keeping appropriate accommodation. This paper addresses the research question: How do consumers who use housing assistance actively manage their housing situations? In‐depth interviews were conducted with 18 consumers who had used housing assistance within the past five years. These were analysed using constant comparative analysis, based on a grounded theory approach. Participants engaged in a range of activities to address six major concerns: working toward my home; following the rules to keep what I have; managing and improving my accommodation; working with housing services; living within my current situation; and finding and using supports. All participants described times when their mental health negatively affected their ability to do these activities. The findings highlight the need for housing services and mental health services to collaborate to develop policies and protocols that place reasonable demands on consumers and support their abilities to actively manage their housing situations.