基于MV-GARCH的石油期货时变套期保值比率研究

文章运用DCC-GARCH、CCC-GARCH和BEKK-GARCH模型估计了WTI石油市场的动态套期比率.通过实证比较分析发现,这三种多元GARCH模型估计的套期保值比率都有较好的套期保值效果,其中DCC-GRACH模型估计的套期保值比率,效果优于其它两种.     

基于岭回归的套期保值方法

文章从提高样本外套期保值效率的角度,对直接套期保值问题建立了基于岭回归的套期保值模型,利用我国沪深300股票指数和沪深300股指期货仿真交易数据进行了实证检验,并与基于最小二乘回归的套期保值模型进行了对比分析。实证结果表明本研究提出的套期保值方法能够有效提高样本外的套期保值效率。     

中国农产品期货套期保值绩效实证分析

运用误差修正模型估计了中国棉花、玉米、豆粕和硬麦四种期货的套期保值比率，并计算了相应的套期保值绩效，发现豆粕的套期保值比率最高，为0．079195，硬麦的套期保值比率最低，仅为0．002221；玉米的套期保值绩效最高，其样本内和样本外套期保值绩效分别为13．74％和13．99％，硬麦的套期保值绩效最差，其样本内和样本外套期保值绩效分别仅为0．25％和0．55％；棉花、玉米和硬麦三种期货的样本外套期保值绩效优于样本内套期保值绩效，与国内外许多学者的研究结论一致。总体看，中国期货市场的套期保值功能并耒得羽I充分发挥．     

股指期货套期保值绩效的实证研究

文章利用风险最小化套期保值模型中最小二乘法(OLS),双变量向量自回归模型(BYAW),误差修正套期保值模型(ECM),广义自回归条件异方差模型(EC-GARCH)和套期保值绩效指标(He),对A股市场与沪深300指数的虚拟组合数据的套期保值比率和绩效进行实证研究,试图来验证不同套期保值模型的套期保值绩效,以期供机构投资者参考.     

证券资产管理业务利用股指期货套期保值问题研究

中国金融市场即将推出股票指数期货,证券资产管理业务可以利用股票指数期货进行套期保值.文章吸收和借鉴了国外的研究成果,对股指期货的套期保值问题进行了系统研究,采用系数法对风险最小化的套期保值比率进行了论证,并结合案例进行了模拟计算.文章根据资本资产定价模型,建立了一元线性回归方程,对流行的系数法进行了检验和重要修正,对套期保值实践具有重要的指导意义.     

多阶段系列展期套期保值研究

在保值期限很长时,或者出于期限短的合约流动性强的考虑,套期保值者需要将合约不断进行展期。根据采用的策略不同,MRH可以分为成堆展期套期保值和递减展期套期保值两大类,针对两类策略的缺陷,提出通过MSRH把两类策略统一起来,将Lien和Shaffer的研究推广到更一般的情形。     

沪深300股指期货动态套期保值策略的效果分析

对比了BGARCH、MA-BGARCH、EC-BGARCH和BGARCH-X这四种动态套期保值策略的保值效果,实证分析四种套期保值模型下资产收益的条件方差与HE指标,得出BGARCH-X的套期保值效果最佳,EC-BGARCH与MA-BGARCH的套期保值效果次之,BGARCH的套期保值效果最差的结论。     

油脂期货市场套保效率的实证研究

文章假设期货市场及现货市场之间存在一种动态的均衡关系,使用变结构协整对传统的套期保值模型进行了误差修正,并对中国油脂期货市场豆油、棕榈油、菜籽油的动态最优套期保值率进行了计算。结果表明中国油脂期货市场套期保值的效率较低。中国油脂期货市场可以降低现货市场的风险,但不能完全消除风险,无法实现完美的套期保值。     

基于相同方差下降比的最优时变套期保值比率探讨

文章以华夏ETF300基金净值和沪深300指数为研究对象,充分考虑了两个资产的相互关系以及收益率的分布特征.在VaR最小化的目标下,以基于风险承受程度相同时的套期保值交易成本和收益率下降比为套期保值效果的衡量标准,综合对比了动态套期保值比率模型tCopula-DCC-GARCH和时变套期保值比率模型RLS-EWMA-GARCH的套期保值效果.结果表明:RLS-EWMA-GARCH模型在交易成本和收益率下降比两方面均优于tCopula-DCC-GARCH模型.     

外币标价的股票指数期货套期保值

本文对新加坡交易所交易的MSCI(摩根士丹利资本国际)台湾股票指数进行了实证分析,运用GARCH误差修正模型估计了两类投资者的最优套期保值比,并且分别计算了套期保值投资组合收益率的方差.结果表明通过动态的套期保值,两类投资者的投资组合风险降低,而且国际投资者趋向于比国内投资者降低得更多.     

Hedging Barrier Options in GARCH Models with Transaction Costs

This study proposes a modified strike‐spread method for hedging barrier options in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models with transaction costs. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the hedging performance of the proposed method in comparison with several well‐known static methods for hedging barrier options. An accurate, easy‐to‐implement and fast scheme for generating the first passage time under the GARCH framework which enhances the accuracy and efficiency of the simulation is also proposed. Simulation results and an empirical study using real data indicate that the proposed approach has a promising performance for hedging barrier options in GARCH models when transaction costs are taken into consideration.     

上海燃料油期货套期保值比率选取的实证研究

通过对上海燃料油期货和现货价格的实证分析,表明期货和现货价格之间存在协整关系,同时价格的波动具有时变性和集聚性特征。考虑这两种特征,建立四个模型计算套期保值比率。结果表明,按照考虑协整关系建立的VECM模型估计的最优套保比率进行套期保值,套期保值效果最好,能使决策者面临的价格风险最小。     

Analysis of hedging based on co-persistence theory

This article analyzes the relationship between co-persistence and hedging, which indicates that the co-persistence ratio is just the long-term hedging ratio. The new method of exhaustive search algorithm for deriving co-persistence ratio is derived in the article. And we also develop a new hedging strategy of combining co-persistence with dynamic hedging which can enhance the hedging effectiveness and reduce the persistence of the hedged portfolio. Finally, our strategy is illustrated to study the hedge of JIASHI300 index and HS300 stock index future.     

Static Hedging of Geometric Average Asian Options with Standard Options

In this article, we first establish a theorem that represents the price of an Asian option in terms of standard European options with a shorter term and different strikes. Then using Gauss–Hermite numerical integration, we discretize our theorem so as to use Monte Carlo simulation to examine the error of the static hedging under the Black–Scholes model and the Merton jump-diffusion model. For ease of comparison, we also provide the error of the dynamic hedging. The numerical results show that the static hedging strategy performs better than the dynamic one under both models.     

Dependence between oil and commodities markets using time-varying Archimedean copulas and effectiveness of hedging strategies

The aim of this work is to study in a first step the dependence between oil and some commodity prices (cotton, rice, wheat, sucre, coffee, and silver) using copula theory, and then in a second step to determine the optimal hedging strategy for oil–commodity portfolio against the risk of negative variation in commodity markets prices. The model is implemented with an AR-GARCH model with innovations that follow t distribution for the marginal distribution and the extreme value copula for the joint distribution and parameters and dependence indices are re-estimated in each new day which allow taking into account nonlinear dependence, tails behavior, and their development over time. Various copula functions are used to model the dependence structure between oil and commodity markets. Empirical results show an increase in the dependence during the last 6 years. Volatility for commodity prices registered record levels in the same time with the increase in uncertainty. Optimal hedging ratio varies over time as a consequence of the change in the dependence structure.     

Risk-minimizing pricing and hedging foreign currency options under regime-switching jump-diffusion models

This article mainly investigates risk-minimizing European currency option pricing and hedging strategy when the spot foreign exchange rate is driven by a Markov-modulated jump-diffusion model. We suppose the domestic and foreign money market floating interest rates, the drift, and the volatility of the exchange rate dynamics all depend on the state of the economy, which is modeled by a continuous-time hidden Markov chain. The model considered in this article will provide market practitioners with flexibility in characterizing the dynamics of the spot foreign exchange rate. Using the minimal martingale measure, we obtain a system of coupled partial-differential-integral equations satisfied by the currency option price and find the corresponding hedging strategies and the residual risk. According to simulation of currency option prices in the special case of double exponential jump-diffusion regime-switching model, we further discuss and show the effects of the parameters on the prices.     

Modelling asymmetric volatility dynamics by multivariate BL-GARCH models

The class of Multivariate BiLinear GARCH (MBL-GARCH) models is proposed and its statistical properties are investigated. The model can be regarded as a generalization to a multivariate setting of the univariate BL-GARCH model proposed by Storti and Vitale (Stat Methods Appl 12:19–40, 2003a; Comput Stat 18:387–400, 2003b). It is shown how MBL-GARCH models allow to account for asymmetric effects in both conditional variances and correlations. An EM algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is derived. Furthermore, in order to test for the appropriateness of the conditional variance and covariance specifications, a set of robust conditional moments test statistics are defined. Finally, the effectiveness of MBL-GARCH models in a risk management setting is assessed by means of an application to the estimation of the optimal hedge ratio in futures hedging.     

Pricing American put option on zero-coupon bond under fractional CIR model with transaction cost

The motivation of this study is to evaluate the American put option on zero-coupon bond, when the interest rate model is governed by a fractional CIR (FCIR) interest rate model. Since the existence of fractional Brownian motion, leading to create the arbitrage, we employ the transaction cost for eliminating the arbitrage. We first of all apply the Leland's hedging strategy for a self-financing portfolio that contains an American option and zero-coupon bond and derive a formula for the transaction cost. We perform the least-square Monte Carlo (LSM) method for pricing American option under the proposed interest rate model.     

中国农产品期货套期保值非对称效应研究

 为了更好地发挥农产品期货的避险功能,本文考察了基差和“消息”对期货套期保值比率的非对称影响。本文选取了2008年5月至2012年2月的大豆、棉花、白糖和菜油四种代表性农产品的期现货数据进行实证分析,结果表明：(1) 4种农产品期现货对数价格都是非平稳的,并且存在协整关系,协整向量靠近(1,-1),从而套期保值过程中有必要考虑基差的影响;(2) 基差和“消息”对期现货的对数收益的波动率以及相关系数均存在非对称效应;(3) 对于样本内估计和样本外预测结果,与静态模型以及DCC-GARCH模型想比,考虑基差和“消息”的非对称效应模型能更大程度地降低风险,因此套期保值过程中基差和“消息”的非对称效应不可忽略。