The eIFL.net Initiative: Access and Management of Electronic Resources by Library Consortia in Developing and Transition Countries

Abstract

eIFL.net is an umbrella organization of library consortia in fifty transition and developing countries. Its main purpose is to negotiate, encourage, and advocate for the wide availability of scholarly electronic information by library users from the education and research sectors, professional communities, governmental organizations, and civil society.

The paper presents the beginnings, goals, and development of eIFL.net in its five years of existence. The authors outline what it has achieved so far and provide an overview of the main challenges that developing countries face in accessing quality e-resources. Some success stories will demonstrate concrete accomplishments of the organization and its participating countries.     

当前全球居民消费价格水平(CPI)变动状况、原因及未来走势

 内容提要:本文分析当前世界主要国家居民消费价格水平（CPI）变动状况、原因及未来走势。分析表明，当前全球通胀处于温和状态，但通胀压力有所加大。     

PPP模式决策的影响因素分析——基于发展中国家的经验

基础设施融资采用公私合营模式日益受到中国政府的重视。从发展中国家公私合营模式的经验入手,分析公私合营模式的类型、行业和地区分布特征;利用世界银行数据库,使用计数模型的零膨胀负二项估计方法,实证分析31个主要的发展中国家基础设施建设采用公私合营模式的影响因素,实证结果表明:市场需求和政府财政约束因素占主导作用,其次是政策环境因素、组织结构质量和法制化水平因素,影响较小的因素是宏观稳定性变量。     

Measuring price-induced changes in standard of living in least developed countries: economic validity of laspeyres price indices and some further suggestions

Usually, also in developing countries, price-induced changes in standard of living are measured by means of Laspeyres price indices. Looking at the special economic situation characterizing least developed countries, the economic validit of such indices is doubtful. The main theoretical results of this paper are derived on the basis of a special utility concept which may be considered typical for least developed countries. It is shown that, under certain conditions, a Laspeyres price index over- or underestimates respectively changes in standard of living. Furthermore, it does not sufficiently evaluate households’ supply positions. These theoretical results are motivated and illustrated by a special least developed country, the Republic of Niger. The paper closes with some further suggestions for measuring changes in standard of living in developing countries.     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经济周期协同性及其传导机制

本文采用CM同步化指数测算中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经济周期协同变化的动态特征,并运用面板联立方程模型检验周期协同性的传导机制。研究发现：(1)中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经济周期协同性经历了波动上升期、逆转期和持续下降期三个阶段,且“脱钩”趋势明显。(2)中国与不同发展类型国家的协同性有显著差异,在波动上升期和持续下降期,中国与转型国家的协同度最高,发达国家居中,发展中国家最低,而在逆转期,协同性由高到低依次为发达、发展中和转型国家。(3)双边贸易、双边直接投资、专业化分工、金融一体化是引起跨国经济周期协同性变化的主要传导路径。双边贸易和金融一体化会强化协同性,专业化分工和双边直接投资则产生弱化作用。此外,较大的制度距离和较低的货币政策协调性会降低周期协同性。(4)各传导渠道对经济周期协同性的相对重要性从大到小依次为：双边直接投资、金融一体化、专业化分工及双边贸易,但在后危机时期,全球价值链主导的国际分工使专业化分工成为最重要因素。上述结论为“一带一路”区域合作模式与路径选择提供了重要的理论依据和政策启示。     

国际资本约束与顺周期财政政策

本文首次建立理论模型证明了国际资本约束是发展中国家顺周期财政政策形成的重要动因。同时基于125个发展中国家1960-2016年的面板数据，得到了与理论预期一致且稳健的经验证据：发展中国家呈现出顺周期财政政策的典型事实。在充分考虑内生性问题，引入加权的贸易伙伴实际GDP增长率和加权的美国国债实际收益率作为有效工具变量后，这一结论仍然成立；主权信用评级每下调1个级别，顺周期财政政策倾向将会增加5.83%。这种国际资本市场的劣势地位所引致的国际资本强约束，是发展中国家采用顺周期财政政策的关键原因。本文的研究在经验上丰富了关于发展中国家顺周期财政政策成因的讨论，为深化发展中国家之间的国际合作与互助提供了政策启示。     

人口普查误差刍议

许多国家每次人口普查之后都要对其进行质量评估,计算人口普查误差,包括净误差及其构成部分（普查遗漏和普查错误计数）。通常采用先估计净误差,然后估计普查错误计数和普查遗漏。人口普查误差计算的关键是估计总体实际人口数。目前多数国家是使用基于捕获-再捕获模型和事后分层的双系统估计量估计实际人口数。最近1～2年美国提出使用基于罗吉斯蒂回归模型的双系统估计量估计实际人口数。研究结论表明：真正的人口普查误差其实是不能计算的;基于罗吉斯蒂回归模型的双系统估计量由于不受样本量限制而可以选择较多的事后分层变量,因而它优于基于事后分层的双系统估计量。     

An Interview with Sam Brooks

Abstract

Jeff Slagell interviewed Sam Brooks, the senior vice president of sales and marketing for EBSCO Information Services, in December 2001. In this interview, Brooks discusses the debate on embargoes and exclusivity agreements in full-text databases that took place last year on discussion lists and in numerous articles. He explains EBSCO's role in working with publishers and librarians in providing full-text database services. Brooks also describes his work with the eIFL Direct Project. Serials Review 2002; 28:142–150.     

中国进口商品技术结构的测算及其国际比较

本文构建一个分析进口商品技术结构的新框架,对中国进口商品技术结构、各类进口商品在中国市场上的比较优势变化进行了分析,并把中国与8个发达国家、8个发展中国家的进口商品技术结构情况进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：在2000-2010年期间,中国进口商品的技术结构高度整体表现为先下降、后上升的态势,近年来,中国进口技术结构高度增长相对较快,目前,中等技术工业制成品是我国第一大进口商品;不同类型国家向中国出口的商品结构不同,发达国家向中国主要出口中高技术工业制成品,发展中国家向中国主要出口初级产品和金属类制成品;发达国家垄断了中国中高技术工业制成品进口,高技术工业制成品在中国市场上的比较优势增加速度较快,日本高技术工业制成品的比较优势水平较低、进口规模较大,美国、德国、法国的比较优势水平较高、进口规模较小。增加从西方发达国家进口高技术工业制成品是中国今后的重点方向。     

我国整体科技实力显著增强

 经国务院批准，国家统计局与科技部等七部委共同组织了我国第一次全社会R&;D资源清查，调查范围首次覆盖了国民经济各行业。本文正是有关此次调查结果的部分分析报告，为有关部门提供参考和借鉴。     

国外资本的流入是否总是促进经济增长

 近年来外商直接投资,官方发展援助以及劳工汇款的国际资本流动逐年增加,但目前的研究还没有把这三者放到一个框架下考察它们对于经济增长的效应。本文主要贡献之一在于使用134个发展中国家1980-2010年数据和面板三阶段最小二乘法（EC3SLS）弥补该领域研究的不足,我们还将在此基础上引入政府治理指标研究不同地区政府治理水平的差异是否会对国外资本流入本国的经济绩效产生显著影响。研究发现：发展中国家FDI和劳工汇款对于经济增长有明显的促进作用,当有更好的政府治理环境时,这一正向影响有所加强。但是ODA与经济增长的关系,就其本身而言没有明显的促进作用,反映了ODA援助目标的有效性问题,但是当政府效能较高的情况下,ODA的经济效应会有不同的效果。     

Identifying the determinants of foreign direct investment: a data-specific model selection approach

In this paper, we examine the potential determinants of foreign direct investment. For this purpose, we apply new exact subset selection procedures, which are based on idealized assumptions, as well as their possibly more plausible empirical counterparts to an international data set to select the optimal set of predictors. Unlike the standard model selection procedures AIC and BIC, which penalize only the number of variables included in a model, and the subset selection procedures RIC and MRIC, which consider also the total number of available candidate variables, our data-specific procedures even take the correlation structure of all candidate variables into account. Our main focus is on a new procedure, which we have designed for situations where some of the potential predictors are certain to be included in the model. For a sample of 73 developing countries, this procedure selects only four variables, namely imports, net income from abroad, gross capital formation, and GDP per capita. An important secondary finding of our study is that the data-specific procedures, which are based on extensive simulations and are therefore very time-consuming, can be approximated reasonably well by the much simpler exact methods.     

2008SNA实施与国家统计发展战略

2008SNA保持了1993SNA的基本框架,关键变化集中体现在资产、金融部门、全球化及相关问题、一般政府和公共部门、非正规部门等五大领域。作为当今世界主流宏观经济统计的基本框架,2008SNA代表着国民经济核算体系发展的方向和目标,也为中国提供了一个迎头赶上国际核算最新发展的难得良机。中国应将研究、开发和执行2008SNA纳入国家统计发展战略规划的框架统筹安排,作为统计总体规划的一部分妥善组织、设计与实施。实施2008SNA应从目标、组织、编制和发布等四个阶段着手加强过程管理,采纳新的概念、分类、原则与方法,提高国民经济核算水平,加强中国统计能力建设。     

经济政策不确定性的溢出效应及形成机理研究

借鉴Diebold和Yilmaz（2012）广义预测误差方差分解思想，利用14个主要经济体2003年1月至2017年5月经济政策不确定性指数数据，测算了其溢出效应,并对形成机理进行了初步探讨。测算结果表明：发达国家的经济政策不确定性溢出效应整体水平要高于发展中国家，该溢出效应对突发大事较为敏感，而对于可预期世界大事则较为迟钝。在控制了个体和时间效应后，进行面板固定效应的FGLS估计，实证结果发现，经济政策不确定性及其波动对溢出效应的偏效应均为正，且波动值的估计系数远高于水平值，经济政策不确定性主要体现为波动溢出效应。由分位数回归估计结果可知，随着分位数的增加，对外贸易、经济政策不确定性水平值、波动值及交互项估计系数的绝对值逐渐变大，对经济政策不确定性溢出效应起主要作用的因素随之变化。为了更好抵抗来自其他国家经济政策不确定性的污染，各国应找到推动经济增长的内生动力，减少国际依赖。     

“Who,What, Where,and Why”

The North Carolina Serials Conference was very fortunate to have secured Rachel Frick for its keynote speaker for 2013. The conference was a homecoming for Frick, who is a graduate of the University of North Carolina MSLS program and is currently the Director of the Digital Library Federation Program for the Council on Library and Information Resources (CLIR), a think tank and research organization located in Washington, D.C. The Digital Library Federation (DLF) has been in existence since 1995, its target audiences being digital library practitioners and other interested parties who are on the front-lines of teaching and learning in this specialty. In her address entitled “Who, What, Where, Why, and How,” Frick discussed some of the major initiatives and issues currently occurring within and around librarianship, exploring the effect that these large scale initiatives can, and should, have at the local level. She can be reached at her Twitter feed, @rlfrick.     

Journal Access Initiatives: Where Are They? Why the World Health Organization? and What Is HINARI?

The move from print to online journal publishing has allowed the proliferation of journal access programs aimed at poor countries. These programs offer access to online journals on very favorable terms to developing country institutions and readers and are based on the premise that developing world scientists can contribute significantly to ameliorating the conditions of life in their countries. The authors give a brief overview of the environment in which these programs emerged, discuss different orientations of the major programs, examine the case of the Health InterNetwork Access to Research Initiative (HINARI), consider why the World Health Organization (WHO) runs a journal access program for developing countries, and conclude with the accomplishments of HINARI.     

全球价值链嵌入与国际经济周期非对称联动

剔除第三方效应测度双边价值链嵌入度,考察其与国际经济周期非对称联动间关联。研究发现:融入全球价值链使中国制造业陷入低增值率出口与中间投入高比例进口的困境,进而削弱了中国与贸易伙伴国经济扩张的联动,加强了中国与贸易伙伴国经济紧缩的联动,这在一定程度上导致国际经济周期呈扩张联动低于紧缩联动的非对称特征。该现象在金融危机前突出,危机后有所缓解但仍存在。相对而言,融入全球价值链大幅削弱了中国与经济增长较为稳健的发展中国家、非欧盟国家经济扩张的联动,又大幅加强了中国与发达国家、欧盟国家等危机多发国经济紧缩的联动,影响中国经济稳定增长。要规避全球价值链嵌入对稳增长的阻碍,中国须提升制造业出口国内增加值份额,并着力降低中间投入进口比例。本文发现了国际经济周期联动的非对称特征,并基于中国融入全球价值链的典型特征解释成因,研究结论可为制定实施稳增长政策提供决策参考。     

TEEAL and AGORA: Improving Access to Agricultural Journals in Low-Income Countries

The Essential Electronic Agricultural Library (TEEAL) and Access to Global Online Research in Agriculture (AGORA) are programs that will provide low-income countries with access to agricultural journal literature that advances their agricultural research and education objectives. Developed by Cornell University's Mann Library and launched in 1999, TEEAL is a self-contained agricultural research library with full-text articles and graphics of 140 major journals related to agriculture from 1993 through 2003, stored and indexed on over 400 CD-ROMs. In mid-2005, most of the collection also became available for use over local area networks. Launched in October 2003, AGORA is an Internet-based journal delivery system led by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), with Mann Library as a principal partner. AGORA offers almost 800 journals from twenty-seven international publishers to 113 low-income countries and territories for free or a nominal fee.     

金融压抑、信贷结构与滞涨效应

卡瓦诺等经济学家认为由于发展中国家普遍存在金融压抑现象,银行信贷成为企业运营资本的主要来源,而紧缩的货币政策通过减少企业的信贷供给,在短期内会产生滞涨现象,即存在卡瓦诺效应。为此,构建一个非均衡的理论模型,并用SUR模型对中国的数据进行实证研究,结果表明:卡瓦诺效应在中国同样是存在的,信贷结构对滞涨效应的大小有着明显的影响,而且控制信贷规模比提高存款准备金率的滞涨效应更为显著。