Temptations and Dynamic Consistency

The objective of this article is to test a prediction of the quasi-hyperbolic model. The test is innovative in that it uses an experimental implementation in which there are two treatments: a forward market and a spot market. In each of these markets goods and activities are sold. The good and activities sold are investment goods or activities and temptation goods or activities. The prediction of the quasi-hyperbolic model is that in the spot (forward) market participants will buy more temptation (investment) goods and activities than in the forward market and less investment (temptation) good and activities. This prediction is not confirmed by the data, and hence is at odds with previous experiments which have shown support for the hyperbolic model. We speculate on the reasons for this.     

A family income distribution model for regional (Massachusetts) policy analysis

An earned family income distribution model for Massachussets is described. This model could be estimated and used for other national or subnational regions for which the micro data required to generate earned family income distribution at working period rates are available. The model is distinguished by its explicit inclusion of male- and female-headed families without earnings and by its attention to employment structure, labor market conditions, and wage acceleration. There is presented a policy simulation that shows the effects on earned family income distribution of cutting the Massachusetts corporate profits tax and offsetting the lost revenue with a luxury goods sales tax.     

Policy modeling of foreign exchange rates

This paper is neither a complete survey of empirical work on exchange rate determination, nor a review of the ballooning volume of theoretical models. It is instead an attempt to classify the main alternative approaches to modeling exchange rates. I shall concentrate on approaches that can be used to assess the effects of alternative policies. There will be four further sections in the paper. The first three sections will each deal withthe structure, empirical support, and policy consequences of three main types of model: purchasing power parity models emphasizing the close and immediate relation of goods markets; interest rate parity models emphasizing the close and immediate international linkage of markets for financial assets; and structural balance-of-payments models that do not assume either of the above linkages to be so strong and immediate as to eliminate the other, and that hence require separate (but interdependent) modeling of trade and capital linkages in the determination of exchange rates. Each of these main categories has many rather distinct models within it, and some models are not easily classified into one of the three categories; I hope that the three-way split will nevertheless serve to make some distinctions that are important for policy modeling.In the final section I shall try to summarize the available model results that pertain to national and international policy choices under a system of more flexible exchange rates, and then to suggest where more or better model building might usefully increase the amount of information available to guide policy decisions.     

Investment priorities and income distribution: The case of Brazil in 1970

In this paper, we study the conditions (ie., social disarticulation) by which choices in government policy priorities toward sectoral production may instigate increased income inequality. A dynamic multisectoral model is proposed in which the main link that is put forward is the necessary correspondence between rapid growth of production of certain types of goods and the expansion of demand for those same goods in the internal market. Application to Brazil illustrates the possibilities of such a tool for economic analysis and shows that the regressive wage policy implemented in Brazil was indeed consistent with that country's economic priorities and policy emphases.     

Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?

We use the Christensen, Diebold, and Rudebusch (2011) representation of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on government paper in advanced, emerging market, and low-income countries. We find a robust link from the policy and short-term interbank rates to the longer-term bond yields in all countries. Two policy implications emerge. First, the presence of well-developed secondary markets does not seem to affect transmission of short term rates along the yield curve. Second, the strength of the transmission mechanism seems to be affected by the choice of the monetary regime and the level of development: advanced countries with a credible inflation targeting regime seem to have better-behaved yield curves than the countries with other monetary regimes.     

When 'Choice' and 'Choice' Are not the Same: Institutional Frameworks of Choice in the German Welfare System

The creation and strengthening of welfare markets in Germany means that citizens can increasingly choose among competing providers of welfare goods and services. However, the conditions under which citizens may exercise choice in various fields of social policy are quite different. A major reason for these differences can be found in the public institutions that frame citizens' choice in welfare markets. This article analyses welfare markets in German health care, long-term care, pensions and employment policies, paying special attention to the respective public institutional frameworks. It will be argued that differences between frameworks of choice can be categorized by means of four parameters representing different aspects of public involvement in welfare markets. Depending on the kind and the degree of public involvement, welfare markets may be compatible with 'traditional' notions of public responsibility for citizens' social security.     

Contested markets: morality,devices and vulnerable populations

While certain contested goods do manage to make their way to the market, others have moved less far in this direction and seem permanently unable to do so. Moral contestation promotes, holds back or blocks the emergence of contested markets. This article examines the conditions that make the operation of these markets possible, and those that block their appearance. Based on a study of organs for transplantation, our discussion will focus on those devices that make transactions possible, and on the ‘vulnerable populations’ that these devices are intended to protect, either from or by the market.     

Market stewardship of quasi‐markets by street level bureaucrats: The role of local area coordinators in the Australian personalisation system

With the rise in popularity of market‐based responses to social policy challenges, the stewardship of quasi‐markets or public service markets, is a key concern for governments worldwide. Debates about how to manage quasi‐markets have focussed on high‐level decision‐making processes. However local actors, in particular street level bureaucrats, are a key part of the complex work of managing quasi‐markets. We examine how street level bureaucrats act as local market stewards in a new quasi‐market for disability care, the Australian National Disability Insurance scheme. We find that the street level bureaucrats, known as local area coordinators, act as shapers of local markets but that their contributions are informal and often restricted by formal structures and processes. For example, we found evidence that the use of key performance indicators can disrupt effective local stewardship efforts towards a procedural approach. We conclude that introducing principles of the polycentric governance approach can improve connections between local market knowledge holders and central decision‐making agencies, thereby improving market stewardship and outcomes.     

Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

货币政策与资本市场关系的理论溯源

货币政策与资本市场之间的关系,其深刻的理论渊源可以从货币数量理论和有效市场理论的有关论述中探寻。这些理论对于货币政策在资本市场预测效力上存在争论,经济学家对这两种理论的维护和相互融通方面做出了重要贡献。     

Distributional effects of international commodity price stabilization: Do the aggregate gains apply to individual producing countries?

This paper demonstrates the different producer gains and losses that can occur from a price stabilization scheme in a same market. An international buffer stock model integrated in a trade flow model of commodity exports of the Latin American economies is used to simulate two representative products: coffee, where instability in the world market has originated mainly from changes in supply, and copper, where the major source of world market disturbances have been demand shifts. The results show that global generalizations as to the net benefits or costs of price stabilization are erroneous at the producer country level in supply or supply/demand dominated instability, a condition that typifies many primary commodity markets.     

汇率制度退出与转型：文献综述

如何退出已有汇率制度安排，向更具弹性的汇率制度转型？这是当前新兴市场和发展中国家面临的一个重要问题。在维持已有制度的边际成本与边际收益一致时退出已有汇率制度是最优的。最佳退出时机的经验判断原则取决于该国的经济结构、经济发展阶段、经济冲击、政治与制度因素等。这些因素同时也决定了该国汇率制度退出和转型的策略选择。汇率制度转型所需的基本条件是：一个具有一定深度和一定流动性的外汇市场，一套连贯的中央银行外汇市场干预的政策措施，一个恰当的名义锚，监测和管理公共部门和私人部门外汇风险暴露的有效机制。     

An international trade model to capture linkages among supply-constrained economies

The development of a country's domestic and international markets depends on its own actions as much as on those of its trading partners. The study of market linkages is thus vital for policy making. Borrowing from the conceptual framework of Leontief's input-output analysis and from the national accounts equation, this paper presents a new model to calculate multilateral trade multipliers while minimizing data requirements. The novelty of the approach consists in the column-wise (supply-oriented) normalization of trade as opposed to the row-wise (demand-oriented) normalization that prevails in the literature. The explanatory power of the model has been successfully tested on data that refer to 1973–1974. Divergence from reality inevitably reflects the great fluidity that characterized trade during that period. Although most successful when applied to trade among supply-oriented economies (such as those of socialist or developing countries), at present empirical tests have been run only for a handful of OECD and OPEC countries.     

Asset markets and foreign exchange intervention: A model of the Belgo-Luxemburg economic union

In this article a general formulation of government intervention policies in the foreign exchange market is integrated in the framework of an asset market model. The policy reaction function is based on a trade off between exchange rate and reserve stock fluctuations; constant exchange rates and a pure float are derived as limiting cases of the intervention schedule. An exchange rate equation is derived from the short run portfolio equilibrium of the model and is successfully tested using data for the Belgo-Luxemburg Economic Union (1967–1979). Our policy conclusions contrast the European Snake constraints for the Belgian Franc with Artus's findings (IMF Staff Papers XXIII(2), July 1976) for the leading DM.     

A general equilibrium model of domestic commerce in Mexico

In this paper we develop a general equilibrium model of the Mexican economy that focuses on the commercial sector, particularly retailing. Consumers purchase goods in different retail establishments, that sell differentiated goods at different prices. Where each consumer decides to make purchases depends on various price and locational considerations. The model has been calibrated to replicate the Mexican economy in 1977, the latest year for which a complete data set is available. We use it to analyze both the impact of the 1980 fiscal reform, a major policy charge for the economy as a whole, and that of a hypothetical development project aimed specifically at the commercial sector. Although our model was conceived and developed well prior to the current period of highly inflationary policies of the debt crisis, the latter was taken into consideration during both the simulations and their policy evaluation.     

Lithuania's children's policy in the period of transition

The article investigates the welfare regime of the free Lithuanian Republic from the perspective of children's policy. The main principles of the 1989 UN Convention on the Rights of the Child – child protection, child provision and child participation – serve as indicators for the level of child orientation. The article analyses legal and institutional issues related to the implementation of the Convention in Lithuania in the first decade of Independence 1990–2001. Furthermore, it compares Lithuanian policy with the three welfare regimes identified by Esping-Andersen. Our results indicate that Lithuanian policy shows a low level of child orientation and that the Lithuanian welfare regime does not correspond to any of the welfare regimes in Esping-Andersen's typology. Lithuania still shows traits from the former Soviet regime. The new liberal extreme market orientation is not modified by social support institutions, and is combined with conservative ideologies on women and family.     

做市商制度与银行间债券市场的发展

做市商制度是国际通行的场外证券市场的交易方法。它在促进证券市场流动性 ,维护证券价格稳定 ,提高市场透明度等方面发挥着巨大的作用。我国于 2 0 0 1年在银行间债券市场推出了“双边报价”制度 ,但其与真正的做市商制度仍有较大的差距。我们要从完善法律法规、提供政策支持等方面促进我国银行间债券市场做市商制度的完善与发展     

Brokering Interests: The Use of Market-Based Policies by Interest Groups

Objective. This article begins the process of broadly evaluating the role of nongovernmental actors in regulatory markets by specifically examining environmental groups’ use of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) market established by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This research posits that the use of nonexclusionary markets in environmental quality regulation allows interest groups a nonpareil opportunity to seek to directly affect policy outcomes. Methods. This article uses two forms of analysis. The first part of the article provides a qualitative analysis of the motives of interest groups that use incentive‐based policies in an attempt to achieve their desired policy outcomes. The last section of the article uses empirical data from the Environmental Protection Agency's Allowance Tracking System to evaluate interest groups’ use of market‐based policies. Results. The use of market‐based mechanisms in public policies offers interest groups a new form of participation in the policy process, yet it seems that only “new” groups are willing to enter the market. Further, I find that though the participating groups may not be able to affect the relative price of allowances (as they claim they will), they nonetheless are able to reduce the absolute number of allowances available. Finally, using market‐based policies to achieve their preferred outcomes may be a “rational” decision for groups in that the “return” on their investment may indeed be quite high. Conclusions. One aspect of pollution markets is clear—they do create an interesting new mechanism of public activism for groups that wish to protect the environment but do not want to “lobby or litigate.” By purchasing pollution allowances groups attempt to directly affect environmental policy outputs without entering the policy cycle as it has been previously understood. As market‐based policies are employed more broadly, opportunities accorded to environmental groups for active involvement in seeking to limit ambient pollutants, as well as the groups’ potential impact, may only expand.     

Adverse selection and equilibrium in liability insurance markets

Models of asymmetric information in insurance markets typically consider insurance buyers with Bernoulli loss distributions differing in expected loss. This article analyzes markets where buyer loss distributions are characterized by mean-preserving spreads and insurers can classify applicants in terms of expected values but not by risk. Because liability losses are characterized by skewed continuous probability distributions, both discrete and continuous loss distributions are considered. In contrast to the single separating equilibrium in the classic Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance market, multiple separating equilibria are identified in this article: three in the discrete case and four in the continuous case. The possibility of extreme discontinuities in insurer policy offers provides a new explanation for crises in liability insurance markets.The support of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners is gratefully acknowledged.