Demographic responses and demographic transitions: A case study of sweden

An important study by Friedlander investigated some of the effects of different demographic responses on national demographic transitions. England and Sweden were advanced as cases that approximated the suggested hypothetical models of transitions. His argument implied that the rural population of a country (in this case Sweden) experiencing mortality decline but little industrialization would reduce its fertility rates if out-migration from agricultural areas were not possible. This present study, using more complete data and better measures, concludes that this did not occur in Sweden—it did not conform to Friedlander’s hypothesized model. Because the potential implications of these findings could be profound and wide-ranging, there is a need for more studies of individual countries using better data and giving more careful attention to Davis’s theory on which the Friedlander hypothesis is based.     

Population growth,changing agricultural practices,and environmental degradation in Zaire

This paper examines linkages between the demographic changes taking place in Zaire, particularly overall population growth and rapid urbanization, changes in agricultural practices, and related environmental degradation. Pressures to feed Zaire's rapidly increasing urban population, which fall on a rural population that has been growing relatively slowly in recent years, as well as population growth and increased population density in certain areas of the country, have resulted in changes in agricultural practices that are described in the paper. These changes in turn are leading to declining soil fertility, deforestation, and degradation of the natural resource base. Given present technology and the state of Zaire's economy, the changes in agricultural practices that have emerged in response to population growth, increased population density, and growth in demand for food production do not appear to be sustainable in the long run.     

未来全国和不同区域人口城镇化水平预测

城镇化将是我国未来几十年社会经济发展的动力之一。从人口学的角度讲,在加速城镇化过程中,人口三大因素,即出生、死亡、迁移的变化中,人口城乡迁移将是核心问题。本文在城镇化发展的中方案假设下,利用ⅡASA的模型对全国和地区未来30年人口城镇化水平进行预测。结果显示了全国和不同区域的城镇化长期趋势;揭示了城乡间的迁移和农村居民身份的改变,是城镇地区人口高速增长的重要因素。伴随城镇化的加速,农村地区人口老龄化速度快于城市。     

二元经济结构下的人口红利及其实现

本文介绍了人口红利的概念及其实现条件。通过对中国人口年龄结构和经济环境变化的分析 ,论证了我国人口视窗开启的时间 ,分析了过去人口红利未能充分兑现的原因。在此基础上 ,提出了在我国二元经济结构下兑现人口红利的途径是通过转移农村剩余劳动力 ,一方面利用城镇经济发展机会解决农村就业问题 ,另一方面延缓城镇人口老龄化 ,延长人口视窗开放时间 ,实现经济再次飞跃发展。完成劳动力的顺利转移需要政府在建设城乡间统一公平的劳动力市场上发挥重要作用。     

Demographic Dynamics and Per Capita Environmental Impact: Using Panel Regressions and Household Decompositions to Examine Population and Transport

This paper examines how demographic changes can help explain changes/differences in personal transport using both International Energy Agency country panel regressions and decompositions of U.S. household data. An environmental Kuznets curve for per capita road energy use was rejected; instead, the relationship between income and road energy was found to be monotonic. The ideas that more densely populated countries have less personal transport demands, the young drive more, and smaller households mean higher per capita driving were confirmed. The household decompositions indicated that changes in demand were more important than compositional changes; yet, during some periods the compositional change component was considerable.     

上海郊区城乡一体化进程中的人口再分布和社会重构

上海郊区城乡一体化进程中的人口再分布 ,主要呈现城市人口郊区化扩散与农村人口城市化集聚同时加快推进、城乡人口扩散 -集聚流高强度辐合于近郊地带等特点 ;这是一个深刻的社会重构过程。本文利用 2 0 0 0年人口普查数据 ,对浦东新区街镇社区人口的社会重构现象作了多侧面的分析 ,并对有关问题进行了探讨。     

城乡一体化与我国“二元”生育政策改革

我国目前实施的是以户籍为标志的城乡有别的二元生育政策。随着城乡一体化的发展,户籍制度的改革是大势所趋,由此会带来生育政策适用对象不明确的问题。为了克服这一问题,本文通过比较多种生育政策调整方案,认为选择新的区分城乡人口的标志来代替户口以维持现有二元政策的方法不能成立;城乡统一的更严格的生育政策不符合我国人口和社会经济发展需要;将现有的二元生育政策经两阶段六步骤调整为城乡一体的普遍二孩的生育政策是一种更优方案,它既能解决户籍制度改革带来的生育政策执行问题,又符合我国社会经济发展的客观需要。     

Rural out-migration and resource-dependent communities in Mexico and India

Resource regimes are complex social–ecological systems that operate at multiple levels. Using data from two distinct cultural and environmental contexts (Mexico and India), this paper looks at the susceptibility and response of such regimes to rural out-migration. As a driver of demographic and cultural change, out-migration impacts both the practices and institutional arrangements that define territorial resource use and management. The research shows that critical yet poorly recognised shifts in migration dynamics can increase the pressures felt locally and serve to reduce the effectiveness of institutional adaptations at the community level. From an environmental perspective, the research adds to the body of work examining the impacts of rural depopulation on land and seascapes and associated biological diversity. We question the assumption that rural–urban migration necessarily simulates ecosystem recovery and aids conservation. This finding is timely as funding agencies and government programs show belated interest in the consequences of out-migration for environmental management, resource use and rural livelihoods in tropical country settings.     

Population and water resources: a delicate balance

Various avenues exist to minimize the effects of the current water crisis in some regions of the world and the more widespread problems that will threaten the world in the future. Active management of existing water resources and a reduction in population growth in water-scarce areas are needed to minimize the effects of the water crisis. National boundaries do not effect water systems. Cooperation and commitment of local, national, and international governments, institutions, and other organizations are needed to manage water systems. Development in each country must entail conscientious and effective balancing of unavoidable manipulations of the land and the unavoidable environmental impacts of those manipulations. The conditions of environmental sustainability must include protection of land productivity, ground water potability, and biodiversity. Humans must deal with these factors either by adopting methods to protect natural systems or by correcting existing damage and reducing future problems. They need to understand the demographic forces in each country so they can balance society's rising needs for clean water with the finite amount of water available. Factors affecting future needs at all levels include rapid rural-urban migration, high fertility, and changing patterns of international population movement. Given an increased awareness of global water systems, demographic trends, and active management of resources, the fragile balance between population and water can be maintained.     

The effect of housing on migrations in Israel: 1988-1994

The analysis of 1988–1994 statistical data indicates that the population of Israel simultaneously moves in two opposite directions: while the initial distribution of new immigrants is primarily focused on the areas where jobs are available, the existing population of these areas tends to move outward, to the less populated districts where housing is more available and affordable. The paper thus argues that the heterogeneity of the population is indeed a crucial consideration for the proper modeling of migration behavior. It is also argued that a) the effect of housing construction on the patterns of in-country migration appears to be attenuated, and b) the low attractiveness of peripheral districts of the country to the new immigrants is mainly caused by a lack of jobs rather than by low rates of housing construction or the harsh climatic conditions of these areas. Received: 22 January 1997 / Accepted: 12 January 1998     

Determinants of rural-urban migration in Ghana

Abstract In the 39 years between the 1921 and 1960 censuses, urban population in Ghana multiplied by nine while the population of the whole country only trebled. The major factor in urban growth was rural-urban migration and the reproduction of the migrants. In 1963 a survey consisting of a systematic sample of households in 45 rural centres, randomly chosen in Local Authority Areas selected in accord with the regional rural population distribution, reconstituted the rural population so as to include current migrants in the towns as well as those remaining in rural areas. For analysis 13,748 respondents were divided into 14 categories by ruralurban migration behaviour. At the same time a survey of urban population provided a check on rural-urban migration data. study of the propensity to migrate from rural to urban areas shows that this increases with the closeness of the rural area to a large town, the population size of the rural centre, the economic well-being of the rural household, the number of relatives already in the urban area, the individual's level of education, larger family size and probably lower birth rank, as well as exhibiting specific age and sex patterns. It is shown that only a minor role is played by occupation, conjugal condition and number of dependants. Various interrelations between these factors are discussed, and attention is given to the special importance of education in partially or wholly determining some of the other factors. Census data are used to demonstrate the effect of rural-urban migration in concentrating persons with certain characteristics in the urban areas.     

A brief introduction to China's family planning programme

China's family planning program is described in reference to its goals, approaches, and achievements. Between 1949-83, China's population increased from 541 million to 1,024,950,000. The population has a young age structure, and the median age is 22.9 years. 80% of the population is rural, and 90% of the population lives in the southeastern region of the country. In view of this demographic situation, the government recognizes the need to control population growth. China's goals for the year 2000 are to increase industrial and agricultural input by 400% and to keep population size below 1.2 billion in order to ensure that per capita income increases. In accordance with these goals, the government, in 1979, began advocating a 1-child policy. To ensure the survival of single children, the government also launched a program to upgrade maternal and child health (MCH). In some rural areas and among certain minority groups, the 1-child restriction is not applied. Family size goals will vary with time. These variations will reflect the need to maintain a balance between economic growth and population growth. A variety of incentives are used to promote the 1-child family. For example, single children receive medical and educational benefits, and in some rural areas, the parents of single children can obtain additional land contracts. Economic disincentives are also used. The government seeks to obtain compliance with the policy primarily through educating the public about the consequences of uncontrolled population growth. All channels of the mass media are used to deliver the messages, and the publicity campaign is especially intensive in rural areas. A comprehensive plan to provided family planning and population education for middle school students is currently being implemented. Each local area develops its own fertility control plan. This plan is then incorporated into the nation's overall plan and the overall plan is implemented from above. Family planning workers bring free contraceptives directly to the people, and family planning motivators are found in almost all villages, neighborhood committees, factories, and military units. As a result of these efforts, China made great strides in controlling population growth and improving MCH during the last decade. The birth rate declined from 27.93 to 18.62, and the total fertility rate declined from 4.01 to 2.48. 124 million couples were practicing contraception by the end of 1983. 41% used IUDs, 37.4% relied on tubal ligation, 12.9% relied on vasectomy, 5.1% on oral contraceptives, and 1% on other methods. The quality of maternal and child care also improved. 92.7% of all deliveries are now performed by trained midwifes. Infant and maternal mortality rates declined considerablely in recent years. Currently the respective rates are 35.68/1000 live births and 0.5/1000 live births. In 1983 alone, the gross national agricultural and industrial output increased by 46.1%. Since 1979 per capita income increased annually by 18.3% among rural residents and by 10.7% among urban workers. China controls and operates its own population program, but in recent years, it increased its cooperation with UN Fund for Population Activities, other UN agencies, and nongovernment agencies. China recently completed its 3rd national census, and demographic research institutes have been established in 10 universities.     

人口流动对农村人口老龄化的影响研究——基于“五普”和“六普”数据分析

我国农村人口老龄化程度和提高的速度全面超越了城市,这与当前的人口城市化进程密切相关。人口流动的年龄选择性,使得农村流出人口平均年龄和老年人口比例都远低于农村人口整体水平。流动人口内部在不断地"更新",年轻的流动人口不断替代年老的流动人口,从而保持较年轻的年龄结构,这种人口流动的年龄选择性加速了农村人口老龄化。通过人口老龄化模型的进一步分析发现,在2000～2010年间,农村人口自然老化速度基本保持稳定。而随着农村流动人口的增加,其对农村人口老龄化速度的影响从2000～2005年间的0.031岁/年增加到2006～2010年间的0.07岁/年;农村流出人口对农村人口平均年龄增加的贡献也从8.04%上升到16.91%,人口流动已成为农村人口老龄化的重要推动力。从人口流动的角度,需要关注农村留守老人的照料问题,进一步完善农村社会保障体系以及解决如何让流动人口在城市沉淀下来等问题。     

Demography and the environment

Demographers' interest in the environment has generally been enmeshed in broader issues of population growth and economic development. Empirical research by demographers on environmental issues other than natural-resource constraints is limited. In this paper, I briefly review past demographic thinking about population and the environment and suggest reasons for the limited scope of demographic research in this area. Next, I describe more recent demographic research on the environment and suggest several newer areas for demographic research. Finally, I consider the future of research on the environment in the field of demography.     

少数民族人口分布及其变动分析

本文基于2005年全国1％抽样调查数据,并结合历次人口普查资料,综合分析了我国少数民族人口分布及其变动趋势。一方面,我国少数民族人口分布的基本特点是在长期的历史过程中形成的,各民族人口的分布格局有着非凡的稳定性,即少数民族主要分布于西部内陆地区、居住相对集中、大多生活在农村。另一方面,随着经济社会的巨大发展,民族政策的变化,交通工具的日益发达,民族人口的再分布渐趋活跃。少数民族人口分布呈现向东部沿海地区扩散的态势,人口分布趋于分散,城市化进程加速。     

流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位:三群体研究

关于流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位问题,过去已有大量文献,但研究重点是农民工。这里把外来市民纳入观察视野,利用2008年"迁移和流动劳动力与中国大城市发展"调查数据,分析工资收入和社会保险参与的影响因素。主要研究发现:在工资收入上,不同户籍身份劳动者之间没有净差异;在养老保险和工伤保险参与上,本市居民、外来市民和农民工参与的可能性依次递减。这意味着,工资收入已经基本上由劳动力市场决定,而社会保险参与依然与户籍身份有关。不过,这种关联方式已经从过去的城乡户籍身份歧视转向本地/非本地权益差异。     

蒙古国人口健康状况分析

蒙古国为世界上人口密度较低的国家,尽管近年来人口总量有所增长,但人口增长仍然很慢,且人口分布不平衡问题严重,80%以上的人口居住在城市。在联合国开发计划署、联合国人口基金、世界银行和亚洲银行等国际组织多年来的支持下,蒙古国人口生殖健康状况有很大改善,但是仍然存在城乡差距较大、部分省份孕产妇死亡率居高不下、孕妇身体健康状况不容乐观等问题。从身体健康的角度来看,蒙古国内仍然存在儿童营养不足、全国人口营养不良发生率较高、生存环境的安全得不到保障等问题。     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 2000

This Mahidol Population Gazette presents Thailand's population and demographic estimates as of July 1, 2000, using the standard techniques of demographic analysis. The paper provides estimates of Thailand's total population, population by sex, population in urban and rural areas, population by region, and by age group. In addition, figures of crude birth and death are listed per 1000 population, natural growth rate, and infant mortality rate per 1000 live births, male and females' life expectancy at birth and at age 60, total fertility rate, contraceptive prevalence rate. The number of the aged population in 2020 is also presented. Presented in a bar graph is a population pyramid for Thailand in the year 2000, illustrating male and females' age and year of birth.     

Asia's demographic future: the next 20 years

Even with the decline of fertility rates in most of Asia, the problem of population growth is still very serious. It is important to stress to Asian leaders and Western researchers that the problem is by no means solved just because fertility rates have declined. In many countries the number of young people is quite substantial and when they increase their numbers, certain problems will develop. Over the next 20 years, urban areas will see a marked increase in population and the resultant problems. Unemployment, increased pollution, and overcrowding will greatly decrease the quality of life for millions of people. This will happen because of natural increases and from the migration of the rural communities. In the rural areas, because of high fertility rates, population will continue to grow in spite of the large numbers of peoples moving to the city. Asia has some of the most densely populated agricultural communities and as their numbers increase, poverty and its associated problem will follow. The solutions to these problems include continued efforts in family planning, maternal and child health, and the improvement of the status of women.     

A close look at the demography of Afghanistan

The first survey designed to allow estimates of the demographic characteristics of Afghanistan's sedentary population was conducted during the period 1972-1974. Our analysis of these data, based on recently developed techniques for handling imcomplete or inaccurate data, suggests that this population lives under conditions that are extreme when judged by modern standards. Marriage is early, especially for females, and universal. Marital fertility conforms to a pattern of natural fertility and total fertility is high. The birth rate is among the highest in the world today, and the expectation of life at birth is among the very lowest. Mortality is lower in urban areas than in rural areas, whereas total fertility is approximately the same in both. Our estimates of fertility and mortality imply stable populations which match closely the observed age distributions for both the rural and urban areas.