Agenda Setting,Public Opinion,and the Issue of Immigration Reform*

Objective. Agenda‐setting theory is used to motivate hypotheses about how media coverage of immigration influences public perceptions of its importance. The authors seek to offer a more complete explanation of public opinion on immigration by exploring differences in the effects of immigration news in border and nonborder states. Method. This article employs content analyses of newspaper coverage of immigration and Gallup public opinion data over a 12‐month period (January–December 2006). Respondents' identification of immigration as a “Most Important Problem” is modeled as a conditional relationship between border state/nonborder state residence and media coverage, ethnic context, and individual‐level demographics. Results. Media attention to immigration is greater in border states than in nonborder states; as a result, residents of border states are more likely to identify immigration as a most important problem than are residents of nonborder states. Conclusions. The analyses point to the importance of geography and news coverage in explanations of public opinion on immigration.     

New Voters,New Outlook? Predispositions,Social Networks,and the Changing Politics of Gay Civil Rights*

Objectives. This study examines the factors that shape public acceptance of homosexuality and support for same-sex marriage across age cohorts.Methods. We analyzed data from two national surveys. We constructed hierarchical logistic and hierarchical ordinary least squares regressions for relevant age cohorts in order to test our hypotheses and explore our research questions.Results. Our models suggest that personal contact has a greater impact on the attitudes of younger respondents, positively influencing public acceptance of homosexuality. Alternatively, religious and ideological predispositions have a greater impact on the attitudes of older individuals. When examining public support for gay marriage, we find that younger individuals have higher levels of deliberative engagement with the issue debate, while older individuals rely more heavily on their predispositions when determining issue stance. Interestingly, measures of media exposure are not significantly related to either public acceptance of homosexuality or support for same-sex marriage, suggesting that other factors may have a greater impact on public attitudes at this point in time.Conclusion. The implications of these findings are discussed in light of the emergence of a new political generation and the continuing struggle for gay civil rights.     

All Politics is Not Local: National Forces in State Abortion Initiatives

Objective. Although research suggests that national forces can play a role in local and state elections, most of this work has only recently begun to examine the potential role of national forces in state or local ballot initiative or referenda elections. Methods. Our research addresses this gap in the literature by exploring the influence of national forces, such as the timing of elections, Supreme Court rulings, the activities of interest groups, and public opinion, on state direct legislation elections. We incorporate national forces into the morality politics framework and derive specific hypotheses. We then test these hypotheses by conducting a multivariate analysis of county–level voting patterns across 16 abortion–related direct legislation elections. Results. Our results confirm most of the hypotheses derived from the morality politics framework, including those concerning the role of national forces. Conclusions. Voting patterns on abortion tend to be influenced by the presence of presidential elections, Supreme Court rulings, interest–group activity, public opinion, partisanship, college education, and conservative religious forces. We discuss the implications of our findings for research on elections, abortion policy, and morality politics.     

Who says what to whom: Why messengers and citizen beliefs matter in social policy framing

Issue frames (i.e., the thematic slants that elites use to structure issue debates) have been shown to alter how citizens think about social policy issues. However, support for a social policy issue not only depends on how the issue is framed, but also on the source or “messenger” associated with the frame. For the most part, issue frames have been faceless and research has failed to consider how characteristics of the frame's messenger such as expertise and trustworthiness influence citizens. The present study examines the influence that gun control frames and their messengers have on a variety of dependent variables. The results show that source cues moderate the impact of the frames, even when controlling for other variables. Specifically, credible sources significantly augment the effects of a frame while spokespersons with a perceived bias tend to weaken the frame's arguments and impact. These results point toward a more complex framing theory: public support for social issues depends on how the issue is framed, as well as who presents the message.     

Public confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court: A new look at the impact of Court decisions

Judicial scholars have long debated the notion that Court decisions can influence the public's attitudes toward the U.S. Supreme Court. We engage this literature by introducing new dimensions to existing theory for predicting the impact of Court decisions on public confidence in the Court and by introducing innovative methods to test our hypotheses. We begin our analysis by examining the relationship between specific Court decisions and public confidence with aggregate time series data. Our analysis then shifts to an examination of individual-level survey data to examine the same hypotheses. Our results indicate that specific decisions can have a significant positive and negative impact on individual-level confidence in the Court. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for the theoretical and methodological debates over the influence of Court decisions on public confidence.     

Framing Effects on Public Opinion During Prewar and Major Combat Phases of the U.S. Wars with Iraq*

Objectives. Our purpose was to develop and test several hypotheses concerning the impact of poll‐question wording on aggregate public support for war. We drew on general insights from framing theory and specific insights from various theories of public support for war. Methods. Our database consisted of two collections of aggregate poll results drawn from the prewar and major combat phases of the Gulf War (1990–1991) and the Second War with Iraq (2002–2003). For each data set, we used multivariate OLS regression to gauge the impact of specific question‐wording variations on the percentage of respondents expressing support for war, controlling for systematic time and pollster effects. Results. Most of the hypothesized wording effects were significant in the expected direction. Mentioning WMDs, terrorism, Saddam, hostages, and international support for war boosted aggregate war support in one or both wars; mentioning the president, oil or gasoline, international opposition to war, and U.S. or Iraqi casualties depressed support. Conclusions. Various theories emphasizing different “rational” aspects of public attitudes toward war are supported. However, the significance of mentioning Saddam by name in the Second War with Iraq, and mentioning the president in both wars, would seem to imply framing effects based more on emotion and/or symbolism.     

"In My Opinion . . .": Justices' Opinion Writing in the U.S. Supreme Court, 1946–1997

Objectives . We develop hypotheses to explain the opinion writing by justices on the U.S. Supreme Court from 1946–1997. Methods . We use data from the U.S. Supreme Court Database, Phases I and II, to examine the proportion of cases in which a justice writes an opinion each term as well as the differences between writing majority, dissenting, and concurring opinions. OLS regression with robust standard errors is the estimation procedure. Results . We find that a justice's position as Chief Justice, professional and education background, reputation ranking, and tenure on the Court can explain a justice's opinion writing. At the same time, we discover that particular variables have different affects on writing majority, dissenting, or concurring opinions. Conclusions . This study demonstrates the importance of both structural and personal background variables in explaining judicial behavior. It also shows the importance of analyzing different kinds of judicial opinions when explaining the justices' opinion writing.     

转型时期司法中的民意现状与策略设计

中国转型时期,法官对司法中的民意采取了比较模糊的回应手法,缺乏对民意精细化和程序化的分析与运用,导致了司法公信力的缺失。因此,法官需要对民意进行灵活的识别,有针对性地回应。民意的回应策略需要坚持论辩主义精神,建立在程序主义基础之上。对法律方面的民意须保持警惕,并充分地解释;运用事实方面的民意还原事实真相,节约司法成本;思考结论性民意背后的推理逻辑,但不直接采纳结论性的意见;将制度建设的民意作为日后司法改革的参考资料。建立科学合理的媒体交流平台,需要媒体在民意与司法之间保持客观公正的立场与姿态,避免媒体的不当报道加剧司法与民意的矛盾。改善司法的运作模式和法官选任机制,降低日后回应民意的司法成本。     

Christian Fundamentalists and Public Opinion Toward the Middle East: Israel's New Best Friends?*

Objectives. Although Christian fundamentalist elites have become increasingly vocal in their support for Israel in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, it is not clear that this rhetoric has produced differing attitudes about U.S. foreign policy in public opinion. This article examines whether such differences exist, and whether they are rooted in aspects of fundamentalist eschatology. Methods. Data from a national telephone survey on attitudes toward the Middle East conflict and U.S. policy were examined using multivariate regression and means comparisons. Results. These results demonstrate that Christian fundamentalists are the strongest supporters of Israel in America today. Fundamentalists have greater sympathy for Israel, oppose policies to pressure Israel, and are distinctive from all other groups in their high levels of support for continuing Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, as well as complete Israeli control of Jerusalem. Conclusion. Christian fundamentalists in America are distinctive on this vital issue in American foreign policy because of their literal interpretation of the Bible or their leaders' increased cues on Middle East policies, or both. This suggests that religion is now an important factor in understanding public opinion on U.S. foreign policy in the region.     

Black‐market Medicine and Public Opinion Towards the Welfare State: Evidence from Israel

Based on a survey and interviews, this article presents and analyses Israeli public opinion toward black‐market medicine (BMM) and the welfare state. In addition to providing quantitative and qualitative evidence of the existence of under‐the‐table payments in Israel, we suggest various insights into this phenomenon. While most citizens admit that they would consider making under‐the‐table payments in order to receive preferential medical treatment, when the questions mention words such as ‘illegal’ or ‘bribe’, respondents tend to be less tolerant of such activities. We find that, first, there is a basic willingness among Israeli citizens to use BMM. Second, despite this predilection, Israeli citizens are reluctant to articulate their willingness to engage in such illegal activities. This reluctance implies the existence of a moral barrier among the population as far as identifying themselves with illegal behaviour is concerned. We may infer the existence of a gap between declared attitudes and behaviour. Third, the fact that people's willingness to engage in BMM is greater than their willingness to adopt black‐market strategies in other areas signifies the special nature of health care. Finally, by connecting the phenomenon of BMM to public opinion regarding the welfare state, we point to a possible gap between normative attitudes and preferences produced by structural conditions.     

公众舆论与外交政策——现实主义与自由主义的比较

本文以现实主义和自由主义国际关系理论流派的发展、演变为视角,着力探讨了公众舆论与外交政策的互动机制以及其作为影响国家间关系的重要变量所具有的理论内涵;并对公众舆论是否具有理性,是否具有真实性、价值性等相关问题进行了比较分析与说明。     

Public Opinion and Dynamic Representation in the American States: The Case of Environmental Attitudes*

Objective. We investigate causal processes linking environmental conditions, attitudes, and policies in the American states: Is public opinion about ecology shaped by environmental conditions? Are state policymakers responsive to environmental opinions? Does public opinion respond to policy adoption? Methods. Using public opinion data from the DDB Worldwide Life Style Survey to measure aggregate state attitudes about the environment, as well as measures of water quality and policy intervention, we capture the dynamics of representation in the American states on the environment during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Results. Our findings support a thermostatic model of representation—state environmental opinions are influenced by environmental conditions and are responsive to policy outputs alongside improved environmental conditions. Conclusions. This model of the opinion‐policy linkage refines our understanding of representation and focuses us not just on the passage of public policy to address public desires, but the effectiveness of that policy as well.     

Changing policy,changing attitudes? Public opinion on employment relations in New Zealand, 1990–2008

Abstract

Did significant policy shifts in employment relations in the 1990s lead to equally large changes in the attitudes of New Zealanders towards employment relations? Have policy modifications made since 1999 further shaped public perceptions? This paper explores the role of policy feedback in influencing public opinion towards employers and unions and towards government responsibility for jobs and wages. Using data from New Zealand public opinion surveys, most notably the New Zealand Election Study (1990–2008), the paper finds some evidence that policy feedback has occurred in the employment relations arena, but the impact is not as strong or consistent as we might expect. As such, New Zealanders do not completely endorse the ‘there is no alternative’ arguments of neoliberalism, but they do not have an overwhelming desire to return to Keynesian demand-management employment policies.     

Public Opinion Surveys and the Formation of Privacy Policy

The laws that condition the boundaries that separate the public from the private spheres shape our expectations of privacy. Public opinion helps to shape the development and implementation of those laws. Commercial firms in the information-intensive industries have been the primary sponsors of public opinion surveys introduced into testimony as assessments of the public's will. Representatives of business and consumer organizations have relied upon the same industry-sponsored surveys to frame their arguments in support of or in opposition to specific privacy policies. In the past 25 years, references to public opinion have been used to frame the public as concerned, differentiated and, most recently, as willing to negotiate their privacy demands.     

Pulpits Versus Ivory Towers: Socializing Agents and Evolution Attitudes*

Objective. Although debate concerning the theory of evolution is part of an ongoing U.S. dialogue over the proper role of religion in society, academics have provided little in the way of systematic understanding of public opinion on this issue. Important questions, such as the relative influence of socializing agents—religion and education—in shaping attitudes on evolution remain unanswered. Building on socialization and cognitive accessibility theories, we offer a framework for predicting public opinion on human origins and the teaching of evolution in public schools. Methods. We model attitudes on evolution and related policy through analysis of data from a 2005 national survey of U.S. adults. Results. Our analysis suggests that religion and education are key predictors of opinion, but that gender, partisanship, and ideology also play an important role. Conclusion. The socializing agent of religion outweighs the effect of education on attitudes related to evolution.     

Raising Considerations: Public Opinion and the Fair Application of the Death Penalty*

Objectives. A major justification for capital punishment is its perceived public support, yet common measures of public opinion do not capture the complexity of death penalty attitudes. This research, first, examines the stability of attitudes regarding the fair application of the death penalty when those attitudes are expressed within the context of an enlarged pool of considerations about its administration and, second, evaluates the directional effect of the considerations on those attitudes. Methods. Data from a national telephone survey that capture the complexity of these attitudes are analyzed using ordered probit estimation. Results. These results indicate substantial instability in attitudes regarding the fair application of capital punishment given the context of more pertinent considerations. Furthermore, within this context respondents tend to indicate that the death penalty is less fairly applied. Conclusion. The justification for capital punishment may rest on oversimplified conceptions of attitudes toward the death penalty and its application.     

Personal Values and Public Opinion*

Objective. Social science considers values a key motivator of human behavior, yet studies of values in public opinion have tended to focus on more limited political values. I investigate how a general theory of human values ( Schwartz, 1992 ) shapes public opinion. In one dimension, individuals are motivated by a desire for independent thought and action versus conformity to traditional social norms; in the second, individuals are motivated by a desire to care for others versus control or achieve superior social status over them. Methods. Statistical analysis of the European Social Survey, nationally representative surveys in 15 western European nations. Results. Human values are systematically related to a citizen's left‐right self‐identification, displaying appropriate sensitivity to party system context in Scandinavia, and explaining attitudes toward ethnic minority immigration, even when controlling for reasonable alternate explanations. Conclusion. Personal values along these two dimensions of social conflict merit further attention as sources of public opinion.     

Pope John Paul II and Catholic Opinion Toward the Death Penalty and Abortion*

Objective. Research on opinion leadership examines the convergence of opinion between elites and masses on issues of public policy. I examine the confluence of opinion between Pope John Paul II and American Catholics on the death penalty and legalized abortion. Method. I use data from three nationally representative opinion surveys and one statewide survey conducted prior to John Paul's death. Results. The results support the supposition that Catholics who esteemed the pope are more negative in their evaluations of the death penalty and abortion. Conclusions. John Paul II, as leader of the Catholic Church, may have influenced Catholic opinion on political issues.     

Online news diffusion dynamics and public opinion formation: A case study of the controversy over judges’ personal opinion expression on SNS in Korea

On the Internet, the line between news and opinion becomes blurred in terms of content and form. In this sense, the processes of news diffusion on the Internet and online public opinion formation are integrated. This study selects one Korean example about the private tweet of a judge about government social network service (SNS) regulation and analyzes citation networks from one news/opinion to another news/opinion. By relying on social network analysis (SNA) methods, this study examines how news/opinions diffuse and how they interact and influence each other's ideological frame within agencies sharing the same ideology and between agencies whose ideologies contrast. The results show that public discourse on the Internet is clearly polarized and fragmented along political ideological lines. Additionally, the findings show that the winner is the conservative bloc because it succeeds in achieving within-bloc solidarity and ensures the resonance of news frames with the cultural values of Korean society. Implications for these findings in modern democracy are also discussed.     

公众舆论、市民社会与法治

公众舆论是市民社会的重要结构性要素。它作为市民社会民主权利表达的最基本方式,发挥公共领域的合法性功能,为政治的合法性提供基础。它还是权力制约机制的核心,通过舆论监督实现对公权力的制约,从而促进民主与法治的实现。然而它在垄断资本主义阶段却产生了异化,丧失了对公权力的制约功能。因此,我国在建构市民社会的过程中,在保证公众舆论发挥应有作用的同时,也要避免这种异化现象。