南方丝绸之路——西南商业第一街春熙路百年兴衰演义

春熙路的草创 一座城市的发达总与一条重要的街道兴衰有关,世界上所有的商埠名都都有一条显名的街道.譬如巴黎有香榭丽舍,纽约有华尔街,银座与东京齐名,说到上海,无人不知南京路和淮海路,北京则有王府井.至于香港有铜锣湾,武汉有江汉路,重庆有解放碑,广州有北京路,南京有湖南路,哈尔滨有中央大街.每一座大城总有一条大街彰显着她的城市繁荣和城市气质.     

抗震救灾：八方援手 众志成城

全国兵力投入经初步统计,这次汶川大地震重灾区范围超过10万平方公里,直接受灾人数1000多万。截至17日凌晨,全军和武警部队共投入抗震救灾兵力113084人,参加抗震救灾行动的军用直升机已达99架,医疗防疫队伍已有88支。截至20日16时,地震灾害造成四川死亡39577人,受伤236359人。已从废墟中救出60026人,临时安置4847756人。     

传统流失文化设防并非妄谈

中华民族有着源远流长的文明和博大精深的传统文化.·人们津津乐道的除了诗曲歌赋、书法字画等流传万世的艺术作品,还有春节团圆、清明上坟及中秋赏月等承载四时八节的风俗习惯,更有中医、造纸术、火药等这些生于中国而造福世界的科学技术.     

生命的故事

5月17日四川省统计局黄国芹副局长,孙铁牛巡视员到重灾区江油市、绵阳市和德阳市慰问受灾的统计干部职工。中国信息报副刊部王前海主任随同采访报道。在采访过程中,一个统计人六年级的小女孩转述了一个令人心酸、心碎的故事……     

四川省委、省政府致抗灾一线官兵和社会各界慰问信

"5·12"汶川大地震灾区干部群众,奋战在抗震救灾第一线的解放军指战员、武警官兵、民兵预备役人员、公安民警,在川参加抗震救灾的专业技术人员、志愿者及社会各界人士:2008年5月12日14时28分,在我省汶川县发生了里氏8.0级强烈地震,其破坏之严重、人员伤亡之多、救灾难度之大都是历史罕见,给人民群众生命财产造成巨大损失。     

网络调查的误差及其处理

由于网络调查本身还有许多不完善的地方,所以调查结果受非抽样误差的影响很大.随着中国网络的普及,网络调查的非抽样误差有减少的趋势.可通过正确界定网络调查的适用范围、更好地与抽样技术相结合、科学设计调查方案、加强网络调查的安全、对估计的结果进行校正等途径来降低网络调查的误差,提高其可信度.     

山东专题之三草长花开各纷飞——各具特色的山东基层基础工作

2005年,嘉祥县对所辖15处乡镇的统计站全部实行了以"人员、编制、业务、经费"上划到县统计局为标志的派出型垂直管理,创造了影响全国的"济宁模式--嘉祥经验",改革之后一路高歌,硕果累累.     

对不劳而获的认可?——生产与福利的关系之三

按照正统的理论,在社会主义制度下,个人消费品分配的基本原则是按劳分配.即在社会主义公有制的范围内,劳动者向社会提供劳动,社会以劳动为尺度,向劳动者分配个人消费品,实行多劳多得,少劳少得.     

注意社会分析中的人为因素陷阱

至韦伯提出"价值中立"以来,在社会分析过程中是否存在真正的价值中立,就一直为学者所争论.尽管在社会研究中"存在一种把社会科学观察者的自我视为潜在的干扰者的倾向,认为自我是可以分离、中立化、最小化,标准化和控制的事物".     

数海青春献康巴

我是一个大山里生、大山里长的统计人.父母给我了山的骨架与肌肉,而统计却给了我成长的源泉和粮食.我在人称世界第三极的康藏高原工作,一提起康藏高原,许多人会情不自禁地联想到那里湛蓝的天,洁白的云,无垠的雪和高远的山,然而,又有谁知道圣洁下面难以掩盖的是恶劣的环境、艰苦的条件,还有千年的荒凉.     

Book reviews

S.M.Kendall:Multivariate Analysis.Charles Griffin & Co. Ltd., London and High Wycombe 1975, 210 pp

C.T.Leondes (ed.):Control and Dynamic Systems, Advances in Theory and Applications. Vol. 11, Academic Press, New York and London 1974, 516 pp., $ 24.50.

CH. R.Nelson:Applied Time Series Analysis for Managerial Forecasting. Holden Day, Inc., San Francisco 1973, 231 pp., $ 14.95.

B.DE Finetti:Theory of Probability. Vol. 1, 2, John Wiley & Sons, New York, London, Sydney, Toronto. Vol. 1, 1974, 300 pp., £ 7.50 - Vol. 2 1975, 375 pp., £ 10.50.

P.Erdördos, J. Spencer:Probabilistic Methods in Combinatorics. Akadémic Press, New York and London; Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest 1974, 106 pp., $ 11.75.

J.S.R.Ustagi:Variational Methods in Statistics.Academic Press, New York and London 1975.

J.S.Rustagi:Optimizing Methods in Statistics.Academic Press, New York and London 1971,488 pp., $ 17.00.

Karl V. Bury:Statistical Models in Applied Science. John Wiley & Sons, New York-London-Sydney-Toronto 1975,.625 pp., £ 15.60; $ 28.00.

Michael R. Anderberg:Cluster Analysis for Applications. Academic Press, New York-San Francisco-London 1973, 359 pp., $ 27,–.

J.L.Fleiss:Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions. John Wiley & Sons, New York-London-Sydney-Toronto 1973. 223 pp., £ 6.50.

J.Tanur et al. (Ed.):Statistics:A Guide to the Unknown. Holden Day, Inc., San Francisco 1972, 430 pp.

H.VÁliaho, T. Pekkonen:A Procedure for Stepwise Regression Analysis.Akademie-Verlag, Berlin 1976, 90 pp., 18,– M.

M.Reinfeldt, U. TrÁnkle:Signifikanztabellen statistischer Testvertellungen. R. Oldenbourg Verlag, Mnchen, Wien 1976, 151 S., DM 44,–.

R.E.Barlow, D.J.Batholomew, J.M.Bremner, H.D.Brunk:Statistical Inference Under Order Restrictions.(The Theory and Applications of Isotonic Regression.) John Wiley & Sons, New York 1972, 388 pp., £ 7.50.

H.J.Larson:Introduction to Probability Theory and Statistical Inference. Wiley, New York 1974, 430 pp., £ 6.85.

R.A.Carlson:Statistics. Holden Day, Inc., San Francisco 1973, 393 pp.

E. Page:Queueing Theory in OR. Butterworths, London 1972, 187 pp., £ 3.60.

H.Krampe, J.Kubat, W.Runge:Bedienungsmodelle. Ein Leitfaden für die praktische Anwendung, Verlag Die Wirtachaft, Berlin 1973, 512 S., 79,– M.

G.S.Fishman:Concepts and Methods in Discrete Events Digital Simulation. John Wiley & Sons, New York 1973, 385 pp., £ 8,75.     

Book Reviews

1. Aitken, C. G. G. Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists, p. 155
2. Bartholomew, D. J. Uncertain Belief: Is it Rational to be a Christian?, p. 156
3. Conolly, B. and Vajda, S. A Mathematical Kaleidoscope: Applications in Industry, Business and Science, p. 157
4. Dorling, D. A New Social Atlas of Britain, p. 157
5. Fleming, M. C. and Nellis, J. G. International Statistics Sources: Subject Guide to Sources of International Comparative Statistics, vols 1, 2, p. 158
6. Gilks, W. R., Richardson, S. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. ( eds ) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, p. 158
7. Glasserman, P. and Yao, D. D. Monotone Structure in Discrete Event Systems, p. 159
8. Hernández-Lerna, O. and Lasserre, J. B. Discrete-time Controlled Markov Processes: Basic Optimality Criteria, p. 160
9. Marcoulides, G. A. and Schumacker, R. E. ( eds ) Advanced Structural Equation Modelling: Issues and Techniques, p. 161
10. Rao, C. R. and Toutenberg, H. Linear Models: Least Squares and Alternatives, p. 162
11. Smithers, G. Advanced Modular Mathematics: Pure Mathematics 1; Westover, G. Advanced Modular Mathematics: Statistics 1, p. 163
12. Wickens, T. D. The Geometry of Multivariate Statistics, p. 164     

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility: A Review

The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation, and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely, (i) asymmetric models, (ii) factor models, (iii) time-varying correlation models, and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, the Cholesky decomposition, and the Wishart autoregressive process. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods of diagnostic checking and model comparison are also reviewed.     

利润最大化区位理论与广州高房价的根源

本文利用利润最大化区位理论,建立房价模型,实证研究广州房价持续上涨的根源。发现影响房价的主要因素是住房供给的短缺,次要原因是高成本以及严重的贫富分化。其体制根源在于自由竞争的地产需求市场与计划经济的地产供给市场之间的矛盾,政策根源在于政府变为“经济人”,一味经营城市,经济根源在于因竞争和权力垄断所导致的产业分化,社会根源在于广州市民不合理的住房消费习惯。因而,近期来讲,加大土地供给、改革土地出让方式、实行房地产累进累退税是抑制房价的关键,从长远来讲,要建立自由竞争的地产供给市场,变“经济人”政府为服务性政府,优化产业结构,取消“国字头”行业特权。     

Time series,point processes,and hybrids

Techniques developed for the study of time series, point processes, and marked point processes can suggest corresponding techniques for each other, and common techniques can be recognized. In this paper connections are drawn based on conceptual foundations, basic parameters, analyses, displays, algorithms, problems, models. The definitions and techniques are brought out by specific scientific problems. The emphasis is on the single-realization stationary case and on the use of second- and third-order moments to help understand the realization. The tool of stacking, at a particular period, is employed in several of the examples.     

Development of a canonical correlation model involving non linearity and asymmetric variables

The classical canonical correlation analysis (CCA) can characterize, but is limited to, symmetric and linear associations. This study formulated a new model which generalized CCA to non linear associations and asymmetric distributions. Special cases of the proposed model were discussed. The behavior of canonical solutions under varying mixtures of skewness and non linearity (NL) was also examined in a simulation study. In addition, these solutions were compared with some commonly used methods of Hotelling, Spearman, and Kendall. Our empirical findings showed, among others, that for a fixed level of NL, the canonical correlation (ρ) increases as skewness increases. By and large, whether by ρ, likelihood, Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion, the proposed method performed better than the other methods in all degrees of skewness and NL considered. This was further confirmed with real-life data application as Hotelling, Spearman, and Kendall overestimated ρ by 2.08%, 37.81%, and 22.15%, respectively, compared to the proposed technique.     

On the importance of being smooth

This paper makes the proposition that the only statistical analyses to achieve widespread popular use in statistical practice are those whose formulations are based on very smooth mathematical functions. The argument is made on an empirical basis, through examples. Given the truth of the proposition, the question ‘why should it be so?’ is intriguing, and any discussion has to be speculative. To aid that discussion, the paper starts with a list of statistical desiderata, with the view of seeing what properties are provided by underlying smoothness. This provides some rationale for the proposition. After that, the examples are considered. Methods that are widely used are listed, along with other methods which, despite impressive properties and possible early promise, have languished in the arena of practical application. Whatever the underlying causes may be, the proposition carries a worthwhile message for the formulation of new statistical methods, and for the adaptation of some of the old ones.     

测量误差模型稳健方法及应用研究

回归模型在经济学、生物医学、流行病学、工农业生产等众多领域有着广泛的应用,而在实际数据收集时常常出现无法获得变量的精确数据或全部数据的情况,即常碰到测量误差数据、缺失数据等复杂数据情形。对于回归模型中存在测量误差的情况,如在参数估计时不加以修正,则易产生估计偏差,使得估计精度下降。对于数据缺失情形,如不采取合理的处理方法也会导致模型分析结果不佳。故此,本文研究含有测量误差数据时,解释变量具有随机缺失时的线性测量误差模型和部分线性测量误差模型的稳健参数估计问题。本文提出了一种在测量误差服从拉普拉斯分布时参数的损失修正估计,通过蒙特卡洛模拟和医学研究中的实证分析,显示本文所提的估计方法具有偏差小、精度高、稳健性强的优势。     

Some aspects of modern population mathematics

The purpose of this paper is to survey a number of the technical tools and models that have found use in the study of human and other populations, and to indicate some problems of current interest. These tools and models are varied: integral equations, nonlinear oscillations, differential geometry, dynamical systems, nonlinear operations, bifurcation theory, semigroup theory, martingale theory, Markov processes, diffusion processes, branching processes, ergodic theory, prediction theory and state-space models. A fairly extensive bibliography is provided. Also an Appendix has been added describing the analysis of a classical entomological data set.