基于EVA与经营风险偏好的供应链鲁棒优化模型

在由一个制造商和多个外部供应商构成的多产品、多阶段供应链中,将经济增加值（EVA）作为体现价值创造的绩效指标,并考虑决策者的经营风险偏好,采用已知概率的离散情景描述资本成本与需求的波动情况,利用鲁棒随机规划方法,建立了以价值创造为目标的供应链鲁棒优化模型。应用分析的结果表明,模型能够将供应链的绩效与风险管理结合起来,减少资本成本与需求不确定对目标值的影响,得到具有鲁棒性的最优解,而且越是风险厌恶型的决策者越会为了保持较低的经营风险而放弃较大的EVA值。同时,决策者可选择不同的权重系数侧重于解鲁棒或模型鲁棒,保证供应链运作的鲁棒性,实现价值创造的目标。     

考虑技术研发和物流配送的医药供应链组合契约协调模型研究

两票制政策的实施使医药供应链管理模式发生了重大变化,也使供应链成员的决策更加复杂。为了确保药品高效、及时、持续的供应,本文研究由一个医药生产企业、一个医药流通企业和一个药店/医院组成的三级供应链的医药定价与协调问题。考虑市场需求受医药生产企业的技术研发和医药流通企业的物流配送影响的情况下,以合作决策的市场价格和最优利润为基准,采用收益共享+数量折扣组合契约作为激励机制,建立了分散决策下供应链组合契约协调模型,探究技术研发和物流配送能力对医药供应链及成员的影响。通过算例分析发现：实施收益共享+数量折扣组合契约策略可以有效的优化和协调医药供应链,能够激励医药生产企业努力提升技术研发水平,激励医药流通企业努力提升物流水平,实现整个医药供应链的帕累托最优。     

Regression models of behavior for managerial decision making

A principal problem in systems studies concerns the development of models that will be accepted and used by decision makers in organizations. Regression models derived from managers' past behavior offer promise in overcoming this problem for many repetitive types of decisions. Employing a simulated production planning environment, this paper discusses both the potential usefulness and limitations of such models for understanding and improving decision making in practical applications.     

Computerized corporate planning

Computerized Corporate Planning as defined in this study is: the use of the computer to simulate the effect of alternative strategies on achievement of corporate objectives; the capability of answering ‘What if?’ questions.

The increasing complexity of business firms operating in a rapidly changing environment has led many managers in recent years to consider the development of computerized corporate planning systems. This article is concerned with an in depth study of some 55 such installations in North America and Europe. The objective of this effort conducted during the period of June –November 1970, was to determine the state of the art, identify problems of installation, and project trends in the rapidly evolving use of computers in planning. Specific questions include:

What is the economic justification for these systems? How are they being used? Who is using them? Have results measured up to expectations? What are the costs? Are organizational problems incurred?     

Supply chain relationship quality and its impact on firm performance

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of supply chain relationship quality (SCRQ) on firm performance (FP) through the mediators of supply chain management processes (SCMP) and supply chain performance (SCP). In the literature, these linkages have been examined separately; in contrast, this study takes a holistic perspective on the antecedents of FP. The model was tested using survey data from manufacturing companies. Variance-based structural equation modelling revealed that both SCMP and SCP lead to FP, unlike SCRQ. On the other hand, SCRQ affects SCMP. Drawing on the resource-based view, consistency in SCRQ can lead to not only efficient and effective supply chain management but also improvements in FP and SCP. This research has practical implications, providing supply chain decision makers with insights on enhancing FP. Supply chain decision makers will be able to benefit from the findings of our study by improving supply chain relationships with supply chain members and ensuring FP. This research also highlights how effective management of SCRQ, SCMP and SCP can provide better FP and a competitive advantage.     

风险规避型供应链的收益共享机制研究

探讨了由风险规避型零售商与风险规避型供应商组成的两级供应链协作激励问题.首先研究了Stackelberg主从对策模型下风险规避型零售商与风险规避型供应商的决策行为,并分析了双方的风险规避系数对双方决策行为的影响.然后,研究了垂直一体化模型下风险规避型供应链的决策行为,同样分析了双方风险规避系数对供应链决策行为的影响程度.最后,提出采用收益共享契约机制来协调该供应链.并通过数值实验进一步分析供应商与零售商的风险规避系数对双方的决策行为及收益共享系数的影响程度.     

Design of Stockless Production Systems

In make‐to‐stock production systems finished goods are produced in anticipation of demand. By contrast, in stockless production systems finished goods are not produced until demand is observed. In this study we investigate the problem of designing a multi‐item manufacturing system, where there is both demand‐ and production‐related uncertainty, so that stockless operation will be optimal for all items. For the problem of interest, we focus on gaining an understanding of the effect of two design variables: (i) manufacturing speed—measured by the average manufacturing rate or, equivalently, the average unit manufacturing time, and (ii) manufacturing consistency—measured by the variation in unit manufacturing times. We establish conditions on these two variables that decision makers can use to design stockless production systems. Managerial implications of the conditions are also discussed.     

附免赔额保险协议下的供应链协调分析

针对供应链主体之间的风险转移问题,在批发价格契约的基础上引入了附免赔额的保险协议,明确了损失的定义及其概率分布.探讨了风险厌恶情况下免赔额对决策主体目标函数的影响,并给出了最优值的确定条件.比较分析了风险中性情况下最优订货量的取值,结果表明在一定条件下供应链可以协调;最后通过数值分析的方式研究了相应参数对保险费的影响,为决策者在确定保险协议时提供了决策依据.     

A hybrid genetic algorithm for production and distribution

This paper develops a hybrid genetic algorithm for production and distribution problems in multi-factory supply chain models. Supply chain problems usually may involve multi-criterion decision-making, for example operating cost, service level, resources utilization, etc. These criteria are numerous and interrelated. To organize them, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) will be utilized. It provides a systematic approach for decision makers to assign weightings and relate them. Meanwhile, genetic algorithms (GAs) will be utilized to determine jobs allocation into suitable production plants. Genetic operators adopted to improve the genetic search algorithm will be introduced and discussed. Finally, a hypothetical production–distribution problem will be solved by the proposed algorithm. The optimization results show that it is reliable and robust.     

新鲜度信息不对称下生鲜农产品供应链协调

生鲜农产品供应链上下游存在新鲜度信息的不对称性,加剧了耗损。为此,迫切需要研究生产商隐瞒新鲜度信息的生鲜农产品供应链协调。基于Stackelberg博弈,使用单周期报童模型分别构建生产商和零售商的利润函数,分析供应链性质;并提出具体的回购契约形式进行供应链协调。研究认为：一般的批发价格契约下,即使生产商隐瞒农产品新鲜度信息,也不一定损害供应链总收益;回购契约可以保证新鲜度信息共享并协调供应链。最后,通过数值算例验证分析结论的有效性。     

供应链企业投资RFID技术的博弈均衡研究

本文以两条竞争供应链（每条供应链均包含一个制造商和一个零售商）为研究对象,基于其是否投资无线射频识别（Radio Frequency Identification,RFID）技术,分别构建了两条供应链均不投资RFID（N情景）、供应链1投资RFID（S1情景）,供应链2投资RFID（S2情景）,及两条供应链均投资RFID（T情景）的收益模型,求解出相应的最优解并探讨供应链投资RFID的均衡策略。研究发现：相较于N情景,单条供应链投资RFID技术对其竞争供应链成员收益产生"负外部性"。当RFID成本较低时,供应链的均衡策略为T情景;当RFID成本较高时,错放率较低的供应链不采用RFID技术,其竞争供应链将采用RFID技术以提高自身的竞争力。     

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Decision support systems (DSSs) are more complex than most other traditional decision-aid systems. For what types of problems are they more effective, and what design characteristics make them more effective? The laboratory experiment reported here examined the effect of three design characteristics of these systems in the context of decision makers faced with ill-structured problems. The characteristics were presence or absence of decision-aid heuristics, degree of interaction between the user and the system, and whether or not the system was computerized. The dependent variables were (1) quality of user performance, (2) user productivity of ideas, (3) user confidence in the quality of his/her performance, (4) user satisfaction with the decision aid or support system, (5) changes in user attitude toward the problem addressed, and (6) changes in user attitude toward computers. Use of heuristics and increased interaction had positive effects on decision quality, user productivity, and attitude toward computers; they had negative effects on user confidence, satisfaction, and attitude toward the problem addressed. Whether or not the system was computerized did not have a significant effect on any dependent variable. The findings concerning negative effects, in particular, suggest the need for research on the design of heuristics for addressing ill-structured problems—heuristics that will deliver the positive but not the negative effects observed in this study. The findings also suggest the need for research on how to benefit from computers in the context of solving ill-structured problems.     

Planning a sustainable reverse logistics system: Balancing costs with environmental and social concerns

The present work aims to support tactical and operational planning decisions of reverse logistics systems while considering economic, environmental and social objectives. In the literature, when addressing such systems economic aspects have been often used, while environmental concerns have emerged only recently. The social component is the one less studied and rarely the combination of the three concerns has been analyzed. This work considers the three objectives and was motivated by the challenge of supporting decision makers when managing a real case study of a recyclable waste collection system, where strategic decisions on the number and location of depots, vehicles and containers were taken beforehand. Tactical and operational decisions are studied involving the establishment of service areas for each depot and the definition and scheduling of collection routes for each vehicle. Such decisions should represent a compromise solution between the three objectives translating a sustainable reverse logistics plan. The problem is modeled as a multi-objective, multi-depot periodic vehicle routing problem with inter-depot routes. A mathematical formulation and a solution approach are proposed. An approximation to the Pareto front is obtained for the case study and the trade-offs between the objectives are discussed. A balanced solution is proposed.     

基于融资需求的损失厌恶零售商订货策略及供应链协调

传统的供应链文献研究都假设了供应链系统中有足够的营运资本可供零售商或供应商融资,然而在管理实践中供应链运营经常面临着资金不足等短缺风险。本文在损失厌恶型零售商存在资金短缺的现实情形下,研究了基于融资需求的损失厌恶型零售商订货策略问题。研究发现,一旦零售商自有资金增加,其损失厌恶系数增大使得资本约束零售商的订货量增加;而一旦零售商的损失厌恶系数确定,银行融资利率增大,资金约束零售商的订货量减小。最后,构造了协调供应链的融资成本共担的协调机制,并通过对比分析刻画了融资利率水平能够影响供应链的运营决策,这也为供应链企业资本风险管理实践提供了很强的实践参考价值。     

基于连续时间动态博弈的供应链声誉及其微分对策研究

着眼于企业及其供应链的可持续发展,纳入时间因素分析供应链协调问题.基于供应链视角考虑顾客价值开拓,并将其本质抽象为“供应链声誉”的构建过程.针对这一供应链动态协调问题,基于供应链成员企业之间的长期合作关系,在连续时间背景下采用变分法建立了供应链各方关于供应链声誉的微分对策模型,通过求解该模型发现在拟约束方程组有解时Nash均衡存在,并求出了相应的最优微分对策.这些理论研究结论阐明了长期的、稳定的合作关系对于实现供应链协调的意义,对于实践中供应链动态协调的实现具有一定的启发与参考价值.论文最后对相关结论进行了数值分析.     

When do Public Managers Imitate Each Other? Mimetic Decision Making in Contracting Decisions of Danish Municipalities

Using organizational new institutional theory, this paper explores a core mechanism underlying contracting decisions in public organizations. A central proposition of this branch of institutional theory is that uncertainty leads to organizational isomorphism. The present study investigates this proposition by asking: When does perceived uncertainty lead public managers to imitative behavior in contracting out decisions? Contrary to most previous studies, we apply an individual level approach and relate different types of perceived uncertainty of decision makers to mimetic decision making. We define mimetic decision making as when decision makers deliberately obtain information about other organizations in order to possibly imitate them. In a survey of Danish municipal managers facing important and complex contracting decisions, we test our hypotheses about three types of perceived uncertainty and mimetic decision making. The results show that technological uncertainty is strongly related to mimetic decision making among public managers. However, we do not find significant results for either volume uncertainty or performance uncertainty. The paper illustrates how uncertainty, through mimetic decision making, is connected to organizational isomorphism. It further highlights that future studies should pay attention to the multidimensionality of uncertainty and its consequences.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Decision Aids on Problem-Solving Processes*

Despite the growing number of investigations examining decision support systems (DSS), relatively few empirical studies have evaluated the effects of DSS on problem-solving processes. This study uses protocol analysis to investigate the impact of a specific decision aid on problem-solving processes in a semi-structured problem. Results indicate that decision aids influence the problem-solving processes of decision makers. The effect of a decision aid is found to be contingent on familiarity with the decision aid, task familiarity, and the interaction of these two factors. Suggestions for incorporating interaction effects and problem-solving processes into future examinations are proposed.     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE BIASING EFFECTS OF FRAMING ON BUSINESS DECISIONS*

This paper presents results of three studies testing whether decision bias due to framing, found in consumer purchase contexts, also would occur in a business setting. In the first study, business-student subjects displayed framing-induced decision bias just as subjects had in an earlier study by Tversky and Kahneman [12]. When the consumer problem was recast into a business decision in the second study, student subjects trained to handle the problem still revealed bias, although to a lesser extent. In the third study, experienced business managers revealed the same pattern of decision bias as the student subjects. Implications of this bias for business decision makers are discussed.     

Towards better strategic management

Strategic management is concerned with determining the long-term goals on an enterprise and deciding on the most appropriate course of action to achieve them, considering changing environmental conditions, resources available and risk attitudes.

The deliberate practice of strategic management is still regrettably rare and rudimentary despite wide recognition of the threats to corporate survival under conditions of rapid change. Better use must be made of the tools of business planning and many more managers skilled in strategy development will be required.

The purpose of this article is to discuss some of the difficulties in inculcating a strategic climate within an organization and to propose some approaches for improvement.