面向2030:全球海洋经济发展的影响因素、趋势及对策建议

“保护和可持续利用海洋和海洋资源以促进可持续发展”被写入联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》,全球海洋经济的可持续发展已成为国际社会共同关注的热点问题之一,部分国际组织和沿海国家已率先启动了相关研究工作。本文总结了海洋经济的范畴及全球研究进展,提出了影响2030年全球海洋经济发展的七个主要因素,即全球经济的增长前景、技术创新与进步、人口增长及城镇化和老龄化问题、世界能源结构变化、地缘政治风险、气候变化与海洋的相互作用和海洋经济政策的实施;分析了未来全球海洋产业的发展趋势;最后提出了促进我国海洋经济可持续发展的五点对策建议。     

Are there monetary clusters in the Eurozone? The impact of ECB policy

This paper analyses what effects the monetary policy of the European Central Bank have on the economic activity of Eurozone countries. We identify groups of countries which exhibit different economic responses to monetary policy and the factors driving such spatial differences. We distinguish three periods, spanning from 2001 to 2017 and examine conventional as well as unconventional monetary policies in different economic backgrounds of expansion and crisis. We find problems of spatially asymmetric transmission of monetary policy in the period 2008M10–2014M12 and note that different spatial responses might operate in favour of monetary policy or be indifferent to this policy.     

Trade and innovation policies: Coexistence and spillovers

The debate over trade’s role in growth and inequality in recent years seems to center on the question of whether the gains from trade are worth the disruption from necessary adjustments. In particular static gains from trade for advanced economies are generally estimated to be small, while empirical evidence around growing employment and inequality challenges suggest trade’s role may be larger than previously thought, though still only one of many contributing factors. The focus on static gains though likely understates substantially the dynamic gains, as trade’s role in spurring faster economic growth, in both developed and developing countries through competitive and innovative forces. The dynamic, competition and innovation angle suggests a need for industrial policies to be revisited and examine how spillovers play out in the global economy. At the same time significant technological disruption is occurring through digital technology, big data, and machine learning/AI techniques that often require advanced capabilities and have significant competition implications. In recent COVID-19 pandemic policy responses governments have dramatically increased spending and liquidity to support stressed firms and households and encouraged many countries to consider strategic efforts to build certain domestic capabilities with the aim of reducing dependence on trade for emergency related goods and services. This paper provides insights on the specific role of innovation policies, and they differ from and are similar to traditional industrial policies, and what that might mean for future trade rules.     

The asymmetric impact of the pandemic crisis on interest rates on public debt in the Eurozone

The outbreak of Covid-19 has played the role of a ‘game changer’ in the way countries of the Eurozone have faced the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis. This paper investigates what has happened to the interest rates of the sovereign bond in selected countries of the Eurozone during 2020. While the pandemic crisis can be interpreted as a symmetric shock, we found some important asymmetric consequences both in the sovereign bond market and the credit default swap market. Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) has played a fundamental role in easening tensions, especially with the announce of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), countries with a higher pre-Covid level of the debt-to-GDP ratio have been found to undergo a significant jump in interest rates and a greater perceived risks of default. Important policies implications emerge in relation to the future role of the ECB.     

Renewable energy,CO2 emissions and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?

Renewable energy appears to be the most optimal alternative to fossil fuel and the widely accepted pathway towards the mitigation of climate change. However, the costs of adopting renewable energy are high, and it appears the wealth of nations, the stages of economic development and growth and institutional willingness and quality are important in winning this global challenge. However, there is limited information on the interplay of all the factors that are perceived as critical in moving the world towards the use of renewable energy sources to meet most of the domestic and industrial energy needs. This study investigates the inter-temporal causal relationship between institutions, renewable energy, carbon emissions and economic growth for 45 sub-Saharan Africa countries using annual data for the period 1960–2017. We used the generalised method of moment panel vector autoregression (GMM-PVAR) technique to explore the linkages. From a general perspective, the results reveal that no causal relationship exists between institutions and economic growth, but a bidirectional causality exists between economic growth and renewable energy. Our results indicate that economic growth causes carbon emissions, and institutions are more likely to respond to carbon emissions and renewable energy but prompts no causality exists between carbon emissions and renewable energy. Interestingly, these results differ between countries with different institutional origin. The policy implications are discussed.     

The role of the social innovation and entrepreneurship development fund in fostering social entrepreneurship in Hong Kong: A study on public policy innovation

Creating an enabling environment for social entrepreneurship in tackling complex socio‐economic challenges is at the forefront of government policy agendas globally. Although several policy mechanisms have been proposed to this end, whether and to what extent those policy mechanisms may (re)shape the social entrepreneurship environments have rarely been explored. By examining the Social Innovation and Entrepreneurship Development Fund (SIE Fund), a recent policy project aimed at fostering social innovation in Hong Kong, this article presents a rare empirical exploration to illustrate how public policies can potentially drive social innovation. We explore first the impact of the SIE Fund in fostering innovation among its funded social enterprises, and second, how the SIE Fund may have influenced Hong Kong's social entrepreneurship environment. Results show that the projects under the SIE Fund exhibit characteristics distinct from the social enterprises prior to the inception of the SIE Fund. In addition, evidence of innovations in terms of product, process, marketing, and innovation in developing new or improved social practices were also identified. This study illustrates how specific public policy mechanisms may potentially facilitate the diversification, inclusion, innovation, and expansion of the social entrepreneurship environment. Findings carry substantial policy implications, in particular to neighbouring East Asian societies typically characterized by a strong government, and face similar structural, demographic and socio‐economic challenges that necessitate innovative solutions.     

Institutional reforms for economic growth in the Western Balkan countries

The paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of institutional reform policies and institutional quality on the economic growth of five Western Balkan countries (WB countries: Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Macedonia and Albania) in the period 2006-2016. It was developed its own model of quantification concerning the impact of the most important indicators of the quality of institutions on the economic growth of these countries, which are in a delayed phase of transition and at some stage in the EU accession process. Achieving high and stable rates of economic growth for WB countries becomes the ultimate prerequisite for completing the EU transition and accession process. In order to improve growth dynamics, among other things, it is necessary to identify key drivers of growth and to model appropriate growth and development policies based on the results obtained. In the paper, WB countries were viewed as a whole. By empirically testing the impact of individual quality indicators of institutions on economic growth, according to the World Bank Governance Indicators methodology by using panel data multiple linear regression analysis, the largest statistically significant and positive impact came from the Government Effectiveness and Regulatory Quality variable. The intensity of the impact of the Control of Corruption and Rule of Law variable on GDP per capita is slightly weaker, but it is also very pronounced. In this respect, the empirical results obtained can be a useful framework for modeling the development policies of WB countries. They represent an important guide for policy makers to implement measures aimed at improving the quality of institutions and at the same time modeling economic growth policies.     

科技服务业集聚、地区创新能力与经济增长——以北京市为例

结合知识生产函数和A-H经济增长模型,为科技服务业集聚、 区域创新能力和经济增长三者之间建立理论联系,并以北京市为例,利用1985-2016年的时间序列数据建立VEC模型进行检验.结果表明:科技服务业集聚、 创新能力和经济增长之间存在比较稳定的长期正向关系;科技服务业集聚可以促进地区创新能力的提升,科技服务业集聚与创新能力的提升又会共同推动地区经济增长;进一步发现,从长期来看,科技服务业集聚、 创新能力和经济增长都较大程度上受到科技服务业集聚的影响,即促进科技服务业集聚的政策措施亦可以在提升地区创新能力和促进地区经济增长的过程中起到较大的积极作用.     

The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. In this paper, we re-examine the causal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth by conducting the panel Granger causality test recently developed by (Hurlin, 2004) and (Hurlin, 2005) and by utilizing a richer panel data set which includes 182 countries that cover the period from 1950 to 2004. Our empirical results strongly support both Wagner's law and the hypothesis that government spending is helpful to economic growth regardless of how we measure the government size and economic growth. When the countries are disaggregated by income levels and the degree of corruption, our results also confirm the bi-directional causality between government activities and economic growth for the different subsamples of countries, with the exception of the low-income countries. It is suggested that the distinct feature of the low-income countries is likely owing to their inefficient governments and inferior institutions.     

The impact of government CSR supporting policies on economic growth

In this paper, we explore the link between socially responsible companies and economic growth across 25 countries during the 2000–2008 period. We extend the growth equation by incorporating corporate social responsibility (CSR) variables and a dummy variable to measure the impact of government CSR-supporting policies. We find that CSR firms are important for economic growth (positively affect growth) and that countries that strongly support CSR achieve higher growth rates. Specifically, countries without an organized and supportive CSR environment and guidelines can hardly expect to increase economy performance through the new growth channels generated by CSR companies (new markets and customers). It is thus important to investigate how CSR companies affect economic growth towards reconsideration of the government's role in CSR promotion as a means to boost economic growth.     

Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test

This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between savings and economic growth in South Africa during the period 1950–2005. The study was motivated by the low and declining savings rate currently prevailing in South Africa, on the one hand, and the dwindling level of economic growth experienced in the country during the 1990s, on the other. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study incorporates foreign capital inflow as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between savings and economic growth—thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework. Using the cointegration-based error–correction mechanism, the study finds a bi-directional causality between savings and economic growth to prevail in the short run and a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to savings to dominate in the long run. On balance, the study finds growth-led savings to predominate in South Africa. The results also show that foreign capital inflow and savings Granger-cause each other, while economic growth Granger causes foreign capital inflow. The study, therefore, recommends that in the short run, South African policies should be geared towards achieving both higher savings and economic growth in order to boost investors’ confidence and to attract foreign capital inflow. However, in the long run, the country should shift its focus towards achieving higher economic growth, in order to boost the domestic savings and to sustain a steady flow of foreign capital investment.     

Zakat as a Poverty Reduction Mechanism Among the Muslim Community: Case Study of Bangladesh,Malaysia, and Indonesia

Poverty reduction remains the most important challenge for policy makers in Islamic communities. The World Bank (2010: Poverty profile in Muslim world, from http://www.worldbank.org ) estimates that approximately 3 billion people are living in poverty and 46 million more people will come under the income level of US$1.25 a day due to the recent global economic meltdown and slow economic growth rates. Thirty‐five percent of these people are Muslims from Islamic countries. The global Muslim community has an essential role to play in addressing the injustice of global poverty through zakat. Zakat is an Islamic faith‐based institution and is being underutilized for poverty reduction in many of these poor Muslim countries. Since zakat constitutes one of the pillars of Islam, it is logical to assume that policy makers among Muslims should pay serious attention to it. However, that is not the case for many Muslim countries and this paper will show that not all Muslim countries are seriously applying zakat in its strategy of combating poverty. This paper will specifically examine the role and effect of zakat in three Muslim countries (Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia) providing the facts of countries that practise zakat in comparison with those that do not.     

How Slovakia has kept the confidence fairy

Since its creation as a country in 1993, Slovakia's average real growth rate has been not only the highest among Eurozone countries, it has been the highest in the European Union. And unlike most “peripheral” Eurozone countries, most recently (March/April, 2013) Cyprus and Slovenia, it has not suffered from significant capital flight. We provide some clues as to why this is so. In contrast to many of the post-1989 Central and Eastern European (CEE) “transition” economies, as well as the troubled five “GIPSI” countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy), Slovakia has kept unit costs competitive, fostered a sound banking system, and managed its monetary and fiscal policy responsibly. Both public and private debt is relatively low and largely funded from internal savings. In short, Slovakia offers lessons for many CEE countries as well as Eurozone countries struggling to restore internal and external balance.     

Nondestructive creation: Entrepreneurship and management research in the study of growth

Economists’ focus on institutions in explaining economic growth, while important, can obscure the significant role played by individual entrepreneurs and the process of entrepreneurship. The prevailing view of entrepreneurship in economics (which continues to shape prevailing public policies) centers on Schumpeter's famous concept of “creative destruction.” In the context of sustained high levels of economic growth, as in the recent American experience, I focus on a different feature of entrepreneurship—“nondestructive creation,” in which the uncoordinated contest of ideas and search for new applications of existing ideas generate growth. And this nondestructive creation should be analyzed and can be fostered.     

Interest rate policies and inflation in interdependent economies: Recent policy dilemmas

This paper examines Federal Reserve Board policies that are premised on a negative short-run association of interest rate movements and the rate of inflation. In particular, econometric evidence is provided, supporting the view that tighter monetary policy appears to raise inflation rates in the short run. Conversely, it is demonstrated that easier monetary policy does not necessarily raise inflation rates in the short run. In the case of uncoordinated monetary restrictiveness, interest rate competition among major countries can produce higher inflation and lower growth than was originally intended.     

Social stability challenged by Covid-19: Pandemics,inequality and policy responses

The public health measures implemented to limit the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to affect economic inequalities. In this paper we first provide a theoretical framework to analyse how income inequality contributes shaping the trade-off between economic lockdown and contagion. Our empirical analysis on EU countries shows that the lockdown is likely to significantly increase inequality and poverty and that the magnitude of the change is larger in more unequal countries. To avoid social collapse, countries must consider inequality as an additional source of fragility, while supranational, coordinated health and fiscal policies are needed in the interest of all European economies.     

Multicountry dynamic multipliers under fixed and floating exchange rates: An econometric analysis

The present paper attempts to analyze the dynamic multiplier effects of fiscal monetary policies for developed countries in a consistent framework of a global econometric model under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper first discusses the estimation of exchange rate functions for eight developed countries with special reference to “fundamentals” in economic performance such as international gaps in inflation, productivity, expected real rate of return, and so on. The results are then incorporated into the global model to derive and compare dynamic multipliers under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. “Insulation effects” are observed in most cases in terms of both output and inflation, though this differs according to the country. Policy implications are discussed at the end.     

Prospects for trade in manufactured goods between industrial and developing countries, 1978–1990

This paper examines prospective changes in trade in manufactured goods between the industrial and the developing countries. Assuming the continuation of the policies followed by the industrial countries, it is projected that the manufactured imports of these countries from the developing countries would rise at an average annual rate of 12.5% between 1978 and 1980 while their manufactured exports would increase 9 7% a year. Nonetheless, the export surplus of the industrial countries in trade in manufactured goods would rise, contributing to the growth of industrial output. The expansion of their exports of manufactured goods would also contribute to economic growth in the developing countries, and both groups of countries would benefit from specialization according to comparative advantage.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Changes in the labor share of GDP： a U-shaped curve

本文的目的在于探讨经济发展过程中,劳动份额在初次分配中演变的一般规律,以及当前导致中国初次分配中劳动份额不断下降的结构性因素。我们的研究发现,在世界各国的经济发展过程中,在初次分配中劳动份额变化趋势呈现U型规律,即劳动份额先下降后上升,转折点约为人均GDP6000美元（2000年购买力平价）。我们提出了一个解释u型规律的理论模型。这一发现为库兹涅茨“倒U曲线假说”提供了更深层次的解释。我们还发现,中国初次分配中劳动份额的变动趋势是基本符合这一规律的。除此之外,影响我国劳动份额的因素还包括产业结构的以及劳动者相对谈判能力的变化。这些发现意味着,中国经济未来两年在初次分配中劳动份额可能会进入上升通道,中央政府为应对世界性金融危机而采取的一些政策性、结构性调整则有助于加快这一进程。     

Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency

Different developments in wages and unit labor costs across countries can reduce the synchronization of business cycles within a currency area and therefore be a potential source of asymmetric shocks and/or asymmetric response to a common shock. In this paper, we use novel econometric methods to identify differences and similarities in wage determination across Eurozone countries. Results show that wages have different determinants across euro area countries, among which two relatively distinct groups can be identified. In particular, wages in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Finland behave more similarly, are less sticky and respond more to macroeconomic conditions than those in the group composed of Italy, Spain, Portugal, France and Ireland. Moreover, the equilibrium wage has been affected by a structural change contemporaneous to the international financial crisis. Finally, structural reforms since the euro crisis have contributed to make labor market structures in Eurozone countries more similar, which contributed to improve the resilience of the Eurozone, but the job is not completed yet.