Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries

This paper presents a new model incorporating features of developing country agriculture likely to shape the welfare outcomes of alternative agricultural policies. The model features heterogeneous households linked through markets in a rural economy-wide structure, with endogenous market participation for farmers facing transactions costs. We use it to simulate the impacts on rural welfare of market price supports, production subsidies, input subsidies, and the removal of transaction costs. Applications to six countries demonstrate the diversity of potential impacts, exhibit some systemic differences compared with impacts in developed countries, and identify specific circumstances under which market interventions may be only slightly less efficient than direct payments at transferring incomes to rural households.     

Conditional payments and self-protection

Self-protection can be financed either by upfront payments or by conditional payments (or contingent fees) in which individuals pay a provider only when a favorable outcome is realized. We find that, from the vantage point of a risk-averse individual, conditional payments welfare dominate upfront payments in the state-independent framework, but upfront payments welfare dominate conditional payments in the state-dependent framework. Moreover, more risk aversion always implies more self-protection under conditional payments, for both state-independent and state-dependent frameworks. In contrast, it has been previously argued that more risk aversion does not necessarily imply more self-protection under upfront payments.

Oil prices,stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns in Turkey taking into account volatility spillovers that are exemplified by second moment effects. Using weekly data from 1990 to 2017 and time varying causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests and taking into account structural breaks, we model each series as an EGARCH process in order to capture any leverage effects in the volatility of returns. Empirical results suggest crude oil prices as measured by Brent benchmark have significant effects on stock market returns in Turkey. While we fail to document significant spillover effects stemming from oil prices in the entire sample, there are significant spillover effects from crude oil price changes to stock market returns in 1993 and 2008–09. These results suggest that government policies must take into account risk spillover effects between markets and that investors are better off monitoring crude oil markets in portfolio allocation decisions.     

Young Australians' labour market engagement and job aspiration in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

Young people tend to bear the brunt of adverse employment consequences of a crisis due mainly to the precarious nature of their job and their over-representation among jobseekers who are having to find employment when jobs are scarce. Using quarterly welfare payment data for the period 2019–2021 from the Department of Social Services, we noted a marked increase in the percentage of 16- to 21-year-olds who received youth allowance (other) payments. While a greater proportion of Indigenous youth than non-Indigenous youth received the payments from 2019 to 2021, the gap widened following the outbreak of the pandemic. Further, applying regression analysis to data from the 2019 and 2020 waves of the 2015 Cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Youth (LSAY), we find no statistically significant change in individual-level labour force status between 2019 and 2020. However, pandemic-induced labour market crises appear to have been associated with reduced work hours, heightened career concerns and sustained nonemployment, where potential impacts are larger among traditionally vulnerable youth groups such as female, Indigenous and overseas-born young persons. The study highlights the need for recognising the intersectionality of youth and other forms of identity (such as gender, Indigenous status and nativity) while designing labour market policies.     

Put–call parity and generalized neo-additive pricing rules

We study price formulas suited for empirical research in financial markets in which put–call parity is satisfied. We find a connection between risk and the bid–ask spread. We further study the compatibility of the model with market frictions, and determine market subsets where the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing applies. Finally, we characterize the price formula.

     

Importing Workfare: Policy Transfer of Social and Labour Market Policies from the USA to Britain under New Labour

Britain's New Labour government has put welfare reform at the top of its political agenda. It has followed a radical “workfare” agenda in relation to labour and social market policies and no longer aims to secure full employment mainly through direct job creation or Keynesian demand management. Instead, it promotes equal opportunity for all based on a contract between benefits claimants and the employment service. The New Deal is at the heart of British activation programmes for the unemployed. American policy paradigms have influenced the design of the New Deal. Policy transfer in activation policies from the USA to Britain is due to institutional similarities in British and American welfare states on the one hand, and to the comparable structure of their labour markets on the other hand. The influence of the European social model on British labour market policies thus remains limited.     

Principles and practice of social security payments for care

This article examines the dimensions which determine whether national social security systems make payments towards the costs of long-term care needs and whether they do so where these needs are met within the family; what kinds of payments are made and to whom; and what levels these payments are set at. The article is based on empirical material from five European Union countries (the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Italy and Germany). We argue that differences between countries along three dimensions account for most of the diversity between national systems in this field. These dimensions are the allocation of responsibilities and powers to local versus central levels of government; assumptions of to whom long-term care represents a "risk"; national principles of subsidiarity and the relationship between the family and the State. This is, however, a field undergoing change (albeit mostly incrementalist and ad hoc) in the face of the demands placed on social welfare systems by growing levels of disability (related to the growth of elderly populations) and demands from women's movements and disability movements for recognition of their needs within social welfare systems.     

The cross-impact between financial markets,Covid-19 pandemic,and economic sanctions: The case of Iran

The main financial markets in the Iranian Economy include the stock exchange, foreign exchange, oil, and gold markets. The sharp fluctuations in these markets, especially those caused by the severe sanctions imposed on Iran in May 2018, and the pandemic outbreak of Covid-19 have led to more confusion and uncertainty among investors. One of the effective approaches to examine such unstable conditions is to study the co-movement(s) between markets to identify the leading variable(s). Thus, in the present study, Wavelet Coherence Analysis was applied to examine the co-movements between markets in a time period from September 2014 to June 2020, as an intense period of uncertainty in Iran. In other words, in this study, the markets were investigated in different sub-periods. Also, the Segmented Regression was performed to estimate the impact of sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic on the co-movements of financial markets in Iran.The results showed that the oil price had a low co-movement with the other three markets, i.e. stock exchange, exchange rate, and gold markets. Thus, the oil market can be a suitable alternative for risk aversion investors. Meanwhile, the oil market could also act as a source of finance for the government during the sanctions period. That possibly explains the recent decision by the Iranian government to use the oil market to finance its budget deficit. Between the exchange rate and gold price, the gold price was identified as the leading variable. While the exchange rate and gold price did not show a significant co-movement in stable conditions, they did show a significant co-movement in unstable conditions, as in times of sanctions or during a global pandemic and thus influenced the investors’ portfolio risk. This result is important from a policy-making perspective. Based on this result, the policymakers can, especially during crises and unstable conditions, control the gold market and make it more stable by managing the foreign exchange market.     

The digital economy and the future of European welfare states

As a consequence of new technology, labour markets are changing. This article’s central aim is to discuss variations among welfare states in Europe to adjust to changing labour markets. These variations in adjustment suggest that some welfare states are more prepared than others, including their capacity to ensure their sustainable financing. In the years to come, the predicted impact of technological development on labour markets will be huge. Impacts will include stronger “dualization” and new cleavages between “insiders” and “outsiders”. Fewer industrial jobs are to be expected, and service‐sector employment faces a risk of decline due to automation. While the creation of new jobs is likely, it remains to be seen whether these will replace the number of jobs destroyed, leaving the risk that many people whose skills become obsolete will become unemployed in the short as well as the longer term. Furthermore, even if the same number of jobs are eventually created, there will be a period of transition. In the light of this, welfare states will be challenged, not only in how they can finance their activities but also in terms of the threat posed to social cohesion by emerging labour market “winners” and “losers”, with an accompanying higher risk of increasing inequality. The article offers suggestions as to how welfare states may cope with the changes related to the financing of welfare states, and how active labour market policy can be part of the response to help alleviate the expected dramatic changes. Also required is a discussion on the annual average number of hours people will work and how this might be a factor in lower future levels of unemployment.     

Impact of finance on growth: Does it vary with development levels or cyclical conditions?

Financial systems are complex and may support economic growth differently at various stages of economic development. This study of 90 countries extends the financial development-economic growth literature by using four proxies of financial development (banking, stock market, bond market and insurance), and considering a country’s level of economic development, on both a full and pre-global crisis sample. As expected financial markets have different effects on growth where the level of economic development vary. Policy makers should find that the insurance sector offers the most benefit for economic growth at all levels of development. Stock markets promote growth for middle income countries. Similarly bond markets promote growth with middle and high income countries. Some bond market and stock market results differed in the pre-crisis sample. Policies which promote trade but limit other areas such as inflation, government consumption and crises, should also support growth.     

The Role of Distributional Coalitions in Welfare Regimes: Chile, Costa Rica and El Salvador

Do social policies in Latin America promote or discourage distribution? And if they do promote distribution, are coalitions a prerequisite? Drawing from a typology of welfare regimes elaborated for 18 Latin American countries, this article explores responses to these questions by addressing three emblematic cases: Chile, Costa Rica and El Salvador – that is, countries where the management of social risks primarily revolves around markets, states and families, respectively. Although the article is exploratory, findings suggest that societal coalitions have been, and are likely to continue to be, weak in market welfare regimes, strong in state welfare regimes and contingent to policy sectors in familialistic welfare regimes.     

Black‐market Medicine and Public Opinion Towards the Welfare State: Evidence from Israel

Based on a survey and interviews, this article presents and analyses Israeli public opinion toward black‐market medicine (BMM) and the welfare state. In addition to providing quantitative and qualitative evidence of the existence of under‐the‐table payments in Israel, we suggest various insights into this phenomenon. While most citizens admit that they would consider making under‐the‐table payments in order to receive preferential medical treatment, when the questions mention words such as ‘illegal’ or ‘bribe’, respondents tend to be less tolerant of such activities. We find that, first, there is a basic willingness among Israeli citizens to use BMM. Second, despite this predilection, Israeli citizens are reluctant to articulate their willingness to engage in such illegal activities. This reluctance implies the existence of a moral barrier among the population as far as identifying themselves with illegal behaviour is concerned. We may infer the existence of a gap between declared attitudes and behaviour. Third, the fact that people's willingness to engage in BMM is greater than their willingness to adopt black‐market strategies in other areas signifies the special nature of health care. Finally, by connecting the phenomenon of BMM to public opinion regarding the welfare state, we point to a possible gap between normative attitudes and preferences produced by structural conditions.     

Public health care in the balance: exploring popular support for health care systems in the European Union

Which factors explain intra‐ and inter‐country variations in levels of public support for national health care systems within the European Union, and why? We propose that public opinion towards public health care is dependent on (1) the type of welfare state regime to which the various European welfare states belong, (2) typical features of the national care system and (3) individual social and demographic characteristics, which are related to self‐interest or morality oriented motives. To assess the explanatory power of these factors, data from the Eurobarometer survey series are analysed. Support for public health care appears to be particularly positively related to social‐democratic attributes of welfare states, whereas support drops with increasing degrees of liberalism and conservatism. Further, support for public health care proves to be associated with wider coverage and public funding of national care services. We also find higher levels of support in countries with scarce social services for children and the elderly, and larger proportions of female (part‐time) employment. Lastly, with respect to individual characteristics, we find remarkably little evidence for self‐interest oriented motives affecting the preference for solidary health care arrangements.     

Capital markets integration and economic growth in the European Union

This paper argues that a deeper integration of capital markets in the European Union is necessary to support accelerated economic growth. Further integrated equity and bond markets will provide access to capital funding improve the allocation of capital, help mitigate market and systemic risks, and ultimately foster a counter-cyclical, sustained real economy growth. The paper provides evidence that the increases in both total portfolio equity and debt to GDP ratios in the euro area actively contribute to real GDP growth.     

Employment relations and dismissal regulations: Does employment legislation protect the health of workers?

Sociologists have long acknowledged that being in a precarious labour market position, whether employed or unemployed, can harm peoples' health. However, scholars have yet to fully investigate the possible contextual, institutional determinants of this relationship. Two institutions that were overlooked in previous empirical studies are the regulations that set minimum compensation for dismissal, severance payments, and entitlements to a period of notice before dismissal, notice periods. These institutions may be important for workers' health as they influence the degree of insecurity that workers are exposed to. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining whether longer notice periods and greater severance payments protect the health of labour market participants, both employed and unemployed. We constructed two cohorts of panel data before and during the European recession using data from 22 countries in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (person years = 338,000). We find more generous severance payments significantly reduce the probability that labour market participants, especially the unemployed, will experience declines in self‐reported health, with a slightly weaker relationship for longer notice periods.     

Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia

The paper aims at investigating the links between world oil price and stock sector markets in Saudi Arabia over the weekly period from January 10, 2007 until September 28, 2011. To that effect, we make use of the VAR-GARCH process developed by Ling and McAleer (2003), which has the advantage to address the issue of return and volatility spillovers among the series we consider. Globally, the empirical findings show evidence of return and volatility transmission between oil price and stock sectors. However, the spillover effects are unidirectional from oil to some sectors for returns, but bidirectional for volatility patterns with more apparent links from sectors to oil. The optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil/stock portfolio holdings are sensitive to the sectors considered, and allow a better understanding of the links between sectors and oil for investors who seek for investment opportunities and want to diversify their portfolios. The findings are of great interest and have important implications for investors, market participants and policy makers.     

Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

The impact of the Doha trade proposals on farmers’ incomes in China

This paper analyzes the potential impacts of the Doha trade proposals (those of the USA, EU and G20) on agricultural production and incomes of China's farmers by region and income group. By linking a global trade model to a national policy model which itself is connected to a set of disaggregated household data, we are able to assess the effects of the proposed Doha trade liberalizations on households both at the national and regional levels. According to the results of the model, the impacts of a Doha Round agreement on households differ significantly from those of China's WTO accession. China's economy would benefit from the trade liberalization associated with the Doha Round. The overall impacts, however, are relatively minor. Although farmers will benefit at the national level, the gains among farmers vary largely by income group and province. Also, the impacts on households that produce different types of crops differ.     

Democratic demand for a social Europe? Preferences of the European citizenry

Within the literature on European integration there is a widespread assumption that Europe is in need of intensified and more effective supranational social policy cooperation. However, on the political level it is doubtful whether such measures are welcomed by the national electorates. This article addresses this issue empirically by asking whether there is public demand for promoting greater European welfare policy cooperation and what are the determinants of such a demand. The data source used is the Eurobarometer survey 2000. A number of hypotheses dealing with socio-structural differences, the effects of welfare regime types, the subjective evaluation of the integration process and the role of identity will be scrutinised. Overall, the results indicate that at the attitudinal 'grass root' level there is no unequivocal support for a European welfare responsibility and that some fundamental cleavages are present. It is the regional and cultural aspects, especially, which turn out to be having an effect and to be influencing future political conflicts. A common European welfare arrangement, therefore, cannot be regarded as a solution to the problems the European Union is facing; rather it will raise new and severe problems of finding social and political support.     

构建老人福利机构危险管理机制——日本经验之启示

"养儿防老"是中国传统的养老模式,长期以来老人的养老主要依靠子女来解决,但是随着生活方式的改变、家庭规模的日趋小型化,老人的长期照顾问题受到了社会的广泛关注。近年来国家制定了相关的政策、制度以及服务来满足老人及其家人的需求,然而老人福利机构及所提供的照顾服务,其服务质量离人性化照顾服务仍有一段距离。就现阶段而言,老人福利机构所提供照顾服务的质与量,均有提升与改善的空间。日本是亚洲第一个施行公共性长期照顾保险的国家,其施行之初也面临着一些与我国同样的问题,为提升长期照顾机构的服务质量,日本厚生劳动省在介护保险制度施行后的2002年,就开始倡导老人福利机构应建立危险管理机制的理念,并于2006年修订老人长期照顾福利机构管理规则,规定老人福利机构应建立危险管理机制,以提升照顾服务质量。有鉴于此,本文将对日本老人长期照顾福利机构建立危险管理机制的过程、基本架构,以及相关课题做系统说明,为我国老人福利机构经营管理提供参考,也可为我国未来在探讨老人长期照顾问题之际,提供必要的配套依据。