Impact of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Asia

The study makes an attempt to contribute to the ongoing policy debate on whether OFDI has a complementary or substitution effect on domestic investment and hence, growth. For the purpose, the current paper uses panel data analysis to understand the impact of OFDI for 14 emerging economies in the period 1981–2019. We supplement the cross-country evidence with a time series analysis for India, given that FDI outflows from the country have been steadily increasing over the years. The results confirm the positive effect of OFDI on economic growth, but the substitution effect for domestic investment. This indicates that the OFDI positively affects growth through its effect on trade and other positive spillover effect, rather than domestic investment. However, in case of India, the findings support the complementary effect of OFDI on domestic investment.     

Malaysia's outward FDI: The effects of market size and government policy

This paper extends the empirical literature of Malaysia's outward FDI (OFDI) by considering the impact of foreign market size and home international reserves using multivariate cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques. The empirical results reveal that there is a positive long-run relationship between Malaysia's OFDI and its key determinants, viz. foreign market size, real effective exchange rate, international reserves and trade openness. The main findings suggest that apart from the market-seeking incentive and the adoption of outward-oriented policies, the Malaysian government could also encourage OFDI by implementing liberal policy on capital outflows. On the basis of these findings, we draw some policy implications for the country's economic development and the internationalization of Malaysian firms in the era of globalization.     

The impact of infectious diseases on remittances inflows to India

The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be grimmer when observed from the migration perspective. Remittances play a vital role in economic development of India through promoting output growth, household spending on health and education, poverty alleviation, financial inclusion and entrepreneurship. Given the importance of remittances, it is important to analyse how the current pandemic will influence the remittances inflows to India. Towards this end, the study employs a gravity model approach to the determinants of remittances with special attention to the impact of infectious diseases in the host countries. The present study constructs a dataset on bilateral remittances from 99 destination countries and utilizes the data on prevalence of infectious diseases in the host countries during the period 2000–2018 to assess the impact of the latter on the inflows of remittances to India. The results of the study based on a variety of estimators tackling various econometric issues suggest a statistically significant negative impact of prevalence of infectious diseases in the host country on the inflows of remittances. The negative impact of infectious diseases on remittances suggest that while there are downside risks in the wake of current pandemic, the scenario does not seem to be that bleak as the remittances to India are countercyclical with respect to economic growth in the home country and largely decoupled from host country macroeconomic fundamentals. As the remittances act as shock absorbers during the time of low economic growth in the home country, India must further build up a conducive eco system to nurture these valuable foreign exchange in a well directed manner.     

中印两国对外投资比较研究

本文主要分析中印两国自20世纪80年代以来的对外投资发展进程,比较和证实两国不同类型的对外投资机制,即中国政府主导型和印度私人企业主导型的投资方式所产生的不同投资效果和国际影响。     

India's surge in modern services exports: Empirics for policy

India's exports of modern services have grown consistently over the last three decades and more so since 1991. Sustaining modern services exports (MSEs), which in India enjoy comparative advantage, is important for sustaining service-led growth and maintaining stability on the external sector. In this context, we examine key drivers of India's surge in MSEs which have important implications for policy. The results reveal that endowment factors such as human capital, tele-density, financial development, physical infrastructure and institutions are the key drivers of India's MSEs along with the world demand, exchange rate and foreign direct investment. Therefore, India needs to focus on and speed up the ongoing reforms to improve supply side factors such as education, infrastructure, financial sector deepening, governance and broad-band tele-density to improve competitiveness of India's modern services exports.     

Remittances,financial development and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for post-COVID-19 macroeconomic policies

To design and implement effective post-COVID-19 macroeconomics policies to tackle poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), policymakers need to understand the factors shaping poverty in the region. This paper investigates the effect of international remittances and financial development on poverty alleviation in 44 sub-Saharan African SSA countries from 2010 to 2019. The instrumental variable generalised method of moment technique results indicated that while remittances increase poverty, financial development contributes significantly to poverty reduction. The results consistently revealed that remittances increase both male and female poverty rates, while financial development significantly reduces male and female poverty rates. Other factors such as economic growth, foreign direct investment, and trade openness contributed significantly to reducing poverty. In contrast, government expenditure and foreign aid were found to increase poverty rate in SSA. These results are robust to the Lewbel two-stage least squares estimator. The practical implications of these findings for post-COVID-19 macroeconomic policies in SSA are discussed.     

Capital mobility among advanced countries

Mobility of capital has been studied by examining savings–investment correlations, real interest rates differentials, covered and uncovered interest parity, and equity home bias. All these examine the capital mobility question indirectly. This paper directly tests the return/total flow specification of the Mundell–Fleming model. It finds that while portfolio equity and debt flows are, direct investment is not; and in every case, the inclusion of direct investment makes the aggregative-capital variable unresponsive to interest rates. Asset-based exchange rate models may benefit by looking at the composition of cross-border assets, countries can have independent monetary policies with full capital mobility, and macroeconomic policy trilemma for open economies disappears.     

对印投资的政治风险及其法律应对措施

印度独立后,总体上对外资持欢迎态度,1991年实行自由化改革以来尤其如此。印度的政治制度、法律制度和经济制度有助于避免大规模政治风险的发生,但国有化和征收风险、汇兑风险、政府违约风险、战争和内乱风险在一定范围内仍然存在。外国投资者对印度投资,有必要采取适当的法律应对措施,以防止和消除政治风险,进而确保投资利润和目标的实现。     

试析冷战后印度中亚政策的演变

从1991年中亚国家先后独立到现在,印度的中亚政策经历了三个发展阶段。从1991年至1998年,这一阶段印度中亚政策的主要任务是通过加强与新独立的中亚国家之间的接触,为印度与中亚关系的发展打下基础。从1998年至2001年,随着国际形势与印度自身发展的需要,中亚国家成为印度加快自身经济发展和打击极端主义与恐怖主义的重要合作伙伴。2001年至今,印度加大了对中亚地区的关注与投入,致力于加强与中亚国家在政治、经济、安全与文化诸领域的合作,印度在中亚的影响也随之增强。虽然印度与中亚国家关系的发展仍受到一些制约,但印度介入中亚事务越来越明确的态势值得关注。     

Impacts of USAID and development assistance toward counterterrorism efforts: Empirical evidence in context of Pakistan

This article studies whether the pursuit of foreign aid for counterterrorism purposes militarizes or mitigates terrorism. It focuses on the USAID and official development assistance (ODA) flows to Pakistan, which recently has experienced an increase due to the presence of deadliest terrorist organizations. By using the time series data from 1985 to 2016, the paper investigated the foreign aid and terrorism nexus for pre‐9/11 and post‐9/11 periods. The empirical estimations of autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach reported that an increase in military expenditures fuels terrorism in post‐9/11 period and the ODA helps to control terrorism from the country. On the contrary, USAID reported insignificant response toward terrorist attacks in pre‐ and post‐9/11 periods, suggesting that the foreign aid from the United States has no significant impact on counterterrorism policies for Pakistan. The outcomes of the current study can be utilized in policymaking of counterterrorism and to explore the nexus between foreign aid, terrorism, and military expenditures. The paper concludes that the concerns about the use of foreign aid as counterterrorism tool are warranted, but that actual manifestations are nuanced.     

印度与美国的太空合作及其影响

在外国帮助下,印度的太空事业得到发展,并且取得了巨大成就。冷战结束后,印美双方形成战略伙伴关系,其中太空合作成为其支柱之一。印度希望通过与美国的太空合作提高大国地位,赶超中国太空发展,提升军事实力。两国太空合作加速了亚洲太空竞赛和太空军备竞赛,使印度战略弹道导弹得到发展,由此加剧南亚紧张局势,形成东亚安全困境,并恶化太空安全局势,增加核战风险。     

Is There an Indian Policy Process? An Investigation into Two Social Policy Processes

India is a huge, poor, fast developing, centralized and increasingly unequal, democratic country. The core argument of this article is that these and other contextual factors have an impact on the way in which social policies are formulated and implemented. The focus of the article is on two such policies on food and primary education. Based on secondary material and own fieldwork, the shaping of these two policies is discussed and some major characteristics of the two social policy processes are highlighted. This analysis brings to light the existence of two paradoxes present in social policy processes in India: one related to the fact that social policies are important for regime legitimacy but nevertheless suffer from a lack of political commitment; the other related to the fact that centralized decision‐making goes together with the widespread involvement of local politicians in policy implementation. These two paradoxes, the article concludes, are the result of the wider context in which social policies are shaped and are hence not easily resolved.     

印度在南亚经济合作中的作用

印度的地区和自身经济发展政策深刻影响了南亚经济合作进程。近20年来,印度对南亚经济合作的重视逐渐超过对政治、安全问题的顾虑。在其积极推动下,南亚经济联系有所加强,地区经济合作机制不断完善。但经济融合的整体水平仍不尽如人意,表现出内聚力弱、外向性强的特点。总体而言,印度在地区贸易和投资合作中发挥的作用较为有限。究其原因,主要包括印度与南亚其他国家产业基础差距较大,贸易互补性不强;贸易成本较高;南亚其他国家对印度的投资吸引力较弱,以及地区政治、安全因素干扰等。     

Deregulation,workplace, and women: Nurses in private health care in India

The paper examines the growth of private health care in India in the context of its regulatory provisions and questions the work and employment conditions of female care workers (nurses) employed there. Nurses constitute 80% of the total workers in each nursing home/hospital. In the wake of increased demand for private health care since mid‐1990s, insertion of technology and investment is inducing transformation of nursing homes into multi‐ and super‐speciality hospitals resulting in changes in work organization of nurses. This has led to demand for larger numbers of workers. Employers gain by the segmentation in the nursing labor market, paying low wages. Workers face widespread social discrimination, long working hours, and high work intensity. The deplorable situation of a significant section of workers employed in this sector indicates state failure to control the private health sector. Lack of effective standards of work impacts nature of work of the workforce employed in various levels in the healthcare system.     

Globalization,financial development and economic growth: Perils on the environmental sustainability of an emerging economy

The study examines the effects of globalization, financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption on environmental sustainability in India over the period 1980–2015. The novelty of the study is the assessment of environmental sustainability in a single framework encompassing globalization, financial development, and growth effects. Findings reveal that an increased level of globalization and financial development while improving economic performance are inimical to the sustainability of the environment. In the short-run, globalization, economic growth, and increased energy consumption are contributing directly to environmental degradation, while banking sector development is impacting environmental sustainability adversely through the economic growth channel. Given the severity of the findings amidst India’s tryst with economic growth, proactive policies are warranted to encourage adaptation of greener and cleaner technologies in environmentally sustainable areas. This necessitates improved institutional quality encompassing stringent environmental standards, legal systems, property rights, corruption, financial information quality, etc., alongside the provision of incentives and subsidies to manufacturing firms undertaking technological innovations and complying with the environmental standards.     

汇率制度退出与转型：文献综述

如何退出已有汇率制度安排，向更具弹性的汇率制度转型？这是当前新兴市场和发展中国家面临的一个重要问题。在维持已有制度的边际成本与边际收益一致时退出已有汇率制度是最优的。最佳退出时机的经验判断原则取决于该国的经济结构、经济发展阶段、经济冲击、政治与制度因素等。这些因素同时也决定了该国汇率制度退出和转型的策略选择。汇率制度转型所需的基本条件是：一个具有一定深度和一定流动性的外汇市场，一套连贯的中央银行外汇市场干预的政策措施，一个恰当的名义锚，监测和管理公共部门和私人部门外汇风险暴露的有效机制。     

印度制造业发展缓慢的制度原因剖析

与以制造业作为经济增长引擎的中国不同,印度制造业的发展始终保持缓慢低下的增长速度。本文从制度角度揭示了印度制造业发展缓慢的深层原因。笔者结合印度制度环境形成的历史背景与制度变迁的路径依赖,发现长期的混合经济和民主体制形成的僵化体制增加了印度制度变迁的难度。劳动力市场保护和许可证等一系列管制构成制造业把握开放机会的制度障碍,造成外资和贸易的不旺,进而无法促进制造业的发展。     

Healthcare in India: Changing the Financing Strategy

The way in which healthcare is financed is critical for equity in access to healthcare. At present the proportion of public resources committed to healthcare in India is one of the lowest in the world, with less than one‐fifth of health expenditure being publicly financed. India has large‐scale poverty and yet the main source of financing healthcare is out‐of‐pocket expenditure. This is a cause of the huge inequities we see in access to healthcare. The article argues for strengthening public investment and expenditure in the health sector and suggests possible options for doing this. It also calls for a reform of the existing healthcare system by restructuring it to create a universal access mechanism which also factors in the private health sector. The article concludes that it is important to over‐emphasize the fact that health is a public or social good and so cannot be left to the vagaries of the market.     

Reforming formal social security systems in India and Sri Lanka

This paper analyses the formal social security systems of India and Sri Lanka. While many of the social, demographic, and economic indicators differ markedly between the countries, the structure of the social security systems, challenges, and reform directions are quite similar. Thus, the provident fund organizations in both countries need to modernize and benchmark their governance, operations, and investment policies. The dualism in their systems, which has resulted in relatively generous non–contributory pensions being provided to civil servants, also needs to be addressed. This dualism and the fiscal unsustainability of current civil service pension arrangements lend urgency to reforms in this area in the two countries. The prospects for voluntary tax–advantaged private sector schemes are encouraging, particularly in India. The conditions for reforms are more favourable now owing to hopeful signs of an end to longstanding conflict in Sri Lanka, and decade–long experience with financial sector reforms in India.     

A forecasting and policy simulation oriented small macro-model for the Indian economy

The design of macro-models for the purposes of derivation of macroeconomic stabilization policies and obtaining forecasts is an important area of theoretical and empirical economic research. This is because such a stance presents an ideal blend of skillfully interweaving the essential theoretical ingredients of the contemporary macroeconomic paradigms with specific structural features of the country under reference. The use of macro-models enables the policy makers to build alternative policy evidences and thus this approach proves to be far superior to the alternative approaches based on intuitive or judgmental criteria. It is against this background that a macro-model for the Indian economy is estimated in an error-correction framework. Based on it, some policy options are evaluated. ECM and time varying parameter based forecasts are obtained for inflation and growth for the Indian economy for the year 2004–2005.