Capital mobility among advanced countries

Mobility of capital has been studied by examining savings–investment correlations, real interest rates differentials, covered and uncovered interest parity, and equity home bias. All these examine the capital mobility question indirectly. This paper directly tests the return/total flow specification of the Mundell–Fleming model. It finds that while portfolio equity and debt flows are, direct investment is not; and in every case, the inclusion of direct investment makes the aggregative-capital variable unresponsive to interest rates. Asset-based exchange rate models may benefit by looking at the composition of cross-border assets, countries can have independent monetary policies with full capital mobility, and macroeconomic policy trilemma for open economies disappears.     

资产证券化趋势与我们的选择

资产证券化是近 30年来金融领域的重大创新之一。由于其具有创新的融资结构和高效的载体 ,满足了各类融资者和投资者不断变化的需求 ,从而成为当今世界各国资本市场发展最快、最具活力的金融产品。资产证券化产生的动因是活化抵押贷款二级市场 ,随创新的深化 ,人们将其发展成为沟通传统的直接融资和间接融资的一个有效通道。资产证券化起源于美国 ,现在已形成一种资本市场创新趋势。改革开放以来 ,持续快速发展的中国经济对资本一直有着旺盛的需求 ,因此 ,目前在我国推行证券化融资工具正当其时。     

人口老龄化对中国经济的长期影响

生育率迅速下降和预期寿命的延长使中国人口正在经历快速的老龄化。本文试图对中国人口老龄化的长期经济影响做出分析,依次讨论人口老龄化对劳动力供需关系和就业率、国内消费需求、社会保障体制和公共财政、人口城乡迁移和城市化、中国经济在国际市场的比较优势和产业结构变迁的可能影响。在此基础上,作者提出逐步放宽生育控制政策、把人口政策的重点放到提高人口素质上、推迟法定退休年龄和深化对城乡社会保障体制的改革,提高社会保障的公平性和效率等政策建议。     

上市公司可转换债券发行条款价值分析

上市公司发行可转换债券在我国已有三年的历史。由于可转换债券兼有债务资本和权益资本的双重特性,其定价方法比较复杂。我国可转换债券的发行条款执行条件多为有条件执行,其定价方法更为复杂。蒙特卡罗模拟数值算法在赎回条款和特别向下修正条款两个发行条款共同作用下的可转换债券期权价值,在赎回条款的作用下,特别向下修正条款对可转换债券期权价值的贡献较小,但当发行公司的股价大幅下跌时,损害了发行公司的原有股东的利益。     

Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?

In this paper, we analyze the role played by capital goods imports in the long-run growth of developing countries. We focus in the case of the Chinese economy in the last few decades. We find evidence that the ratio of imported to domestic capital goods, that is, the composition of investment, as well as the capital accumulation (both physical and human), was key determinants of the long-run growth rate of per capita GDP over the analyzed period. Furthermore, our results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the link between trade openness and long-run growth operates mainly through imports. This finding supports some recent developments of Schumpeterian models of growth, and the very specific economic policy recommendations arising thereof. In short, these models state that, in the early stages of growth, government intervention to encourage an investment-based strategy, with emphasis on large investment efforts and the adoption of foreign technology, could be an appropriate strategy for development.     

Does the Euro–Mediterranean Partnership contribute to regional integration?

The paper investigates whether Southern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets under the Euro–Mediterranean Partnership (Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Malta, and Turkey) have become more financially integrated with the European stock market over time. The findings suggest that the Turkish equity market is moderately integrated with the European market, while the other economies exhibit weak financial integration with Europe, supporting the idea that the partnership appears to have no effect on enhancing inter-market linkages for these economies. Therefore, these markets would be good destinations for international investors seeking attractive investment opportunities to diversify their equity portfolios. Structural changes in the cross-market integration do exist, which may be considered as a guide for international equity portfolio diversification over different subperiods. In addition, there is evidence of an increasing trend in conditional correlations for Egypt and Turkey, to varying degrees, over time, notably during the post global financial crisis of 2007–2008, thus revealing herding behavior during this period. Overall, investors should be wary of the variation of equity market integration over time before engaging in an investment at the level of portfolio management and diversification. Policymakers must be aware of the remoteness of the current achievements of the Euro–Mediterranean Partnership from the targets set in terms of financial development and economic growth.     

另一个视角下的信任

本文试图从社会资本的角度来探讨我国日益严重的信任问题。指出信任作为一种社会资本，对社会的发展起着极其重要的作用，从风险社会和社会转型当前两大时代背景来重新审视当前中国的信任问题。以“杀熟”、“三鹿事件”等事件为例，分析当前中国信任何以遭受破坏，并针对社会资本的建设，思考当前我国社会信任的重建。     

北京市投资、消费、净出口与经济增长的实证研究

本文通过国际比较和建立模型,分析了北京市1978-2009年投资、消费、净出口与GDP增长的关系,结合北京市"十二五规划"提出的GDP增长率、投资率、消费率等指标,针对首都转变经济发展方式中存在的突出问题以及政府宏观调控的路径选择提出了政策建议。     

Assessing the World Bank Report Keeping the Promise

A new report of the World Bank released in 2004 evaluates the performance of structural pension reforms in several Latin American countries, ratifying some fundamental issues of the Bank's previous report of 1994 but contesting others, acknowledging serious problems and recommending new policies. In the light of available data from ten countries with structural reforms in the region, as well as the author's own research, this article discusses nine key elements of the new report: coverage, compliance, competition among administrators, managerial costs, capital accumulation, effects on capital and financial markets, fiscal costs, general and gender equity, and isolation from politics.     

人力资本投资风险及防范控制研究述评

本文介绍了人力资本投资效益、人力资本投资风险以及人力资本投资风险防范控制等方面的相关研究成果，对相关研究成果进行梳理和评述。该研究能为人力资本投资风险及防控的研究和实践提供基础和借鉴。     

Macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe

This paper provides the first cross-country study of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe. For these countries, we construct a unique dataset of exogenous changes in public investment and use them with Jordá (2005) local projections method to estimate their dynamic effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates, the unemployment rate and debt-to-GDP ratio. Our results show significant multiplicative effects of public investment on GDP, delivered primarily through crowding in of private investment. Our analysis confirms that public investment can be seen as a catalyst of positive spillover effects to other sectors of the economy and thus contribute to productivity growth.     

Industrial structure and economic fluctuation—Evidence from China

Industrial structure evolves with economic development. Since the reform and opening up of the economy in 1978, China has undergone rapid economic growth and dramatic industrial restructuring, with the proportion of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry changed respectively from 28%, 48% and 24% of GDP in 1978 to 11%, 49% and 40% in 2008. Using panel data from 31 provinces in the past three decades, this paper empirically examined the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure. Based on results from unit root test, cointegration test, and Granger causality test, this paper concluded that the two variables are order-1 integrated, short-run economic fluctuation causes industrial structure disproportion, while a long-run bidirectional causal relationship exists between industry structure disproportion and economic aggregate fluctuation. This paper also investigated the determinants of China's industrial structure and found that influential factors include per capita GDP, domestic consumption propensity, urban–rural disparity, scale of the labor force and capital stock, property right protection, and administrative effectiveness.     

The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?

The paper examines the impact of population ageing on macroeconomic outcomes, inflation and labour force participation employing a sample of 23 OECD developed countries from 1960 to 2014 and accounting for the institutional context. Controlling for collective bargaining coordination the results show that a larger elderly share of population would lead to lower real GDP growth, albeit mostly in countries with low population growth rates. Ageing puts substantial downward pressure on inflation due to subdued aggregate demand. Also, results demonstrate that the ageing of the workforce tends to reduce labour supply. To mitigate any adverse effects of population ageing, a combination of labour market policies, pension reforms, greater investment in human capital and technological innovation should be prioritized in policy making.     

社会资本的生成依据探究

从社会哲学层次而言,社会资本就是能够为特定主体带来回报的社会关系资源。作为一种社会关系资源,社会资本的生成与社会关系的生成是同步的：现实的人是社会资本生成的前提,物质生产和交往是社会资本生成的实践基础,人的需要是社会资本生成的必要条件,这三者共同构成社会资本的生成依据。     

家庭社会资本与青少年犯罪行为关系探究

青少年犯罪是当今社会的顽疾,它已成为世界各国普遍关注的社会问题。家庭是青少年适应社会的基本媒介,家庭社会资本的影响是决定—个儿童是否成为犯罪者的重要因素。本文主要综述了家庭社会资本与青少年犯罪行为之间的关系,具体分析了决定家庭社会资本的因素以及家庭社会资本的缺乏对青少年犯罪行为产生的可能性影响。研究探索青少年犯罪与家庭社会资本的关系,也是为了制定积极有效的措施,更好地预防和减少青少年犯罪。     

我国内部资本市场交叉有效模式的提出

文章在充分讨论国内外内部资本市场的研究现状和实际运行情况基础上,提出我国内部资本市场定义应具有"仿社会主义市场经济"特征,并利用"市场经济"和"计划经济"的功能优势,进一步提出增强内部资本市场效率的交叉有效模式。     

The economic costs of US stock mispricing

The USAGE model for the United States is used to quantify economic costs due to stock mispricing, made operational by shocking Tobin's q. The simulations quantify a potentially large impact even in the most favorable environment, where export demand holds up, and, the dollar is pro-cyclical. A two-year investment boom in two sectors increases consumption by a Net Present Value (NPV) amount of nearly one per cent, due to a positive investment externality onto the US terms of trade. If the investment is wasted, however, the consumption loss is nearly one-half of a per cent. A 5-year ‘capital strike’ across the whole economy subsequent to the boom - mimicking financial distress from a burst bubble - shaves around 10 per cent off consumption. Given these significant costs associated with “boom” and “bust” equity markets, we consider some, policy options that might result in greater stability in these markets.     

Financial efficiency and accounting quality: The impact of institutional micro-factors on FDI

In this paper, we explore whether factors such as financial markets and accounting qualities contribute to foreign direct investment (FDI). We use a unique data source: the survey data from World Economic Forum, to measure the efficiency of the financial markets and the quality of accounting standards. With this unique data, we demonstrate that financial markets and accounting quality are important factors of FDI inflow into a country. In particular, FDI is positively correlated with the strength of financial audits and reporting standards and venture capital availability for all countries. We also show that accounting quality measures are more important for developing and emerging countries than for developed countries. On the other hand, financial market measures, especially the access to venture capital, have a bigger impact in attracting FDI flow into developed countries. These results support the hypothesis that local financial markets and accounting quality affect FDI. The results have strong policy implications for governmental regulatory agencies.     

Availability Crises in Insurance Markets: Optimal Contracts with Asymmetric Information and Capacity Constraints

Insurance markets sometimes exhibit "crises" in which prices rise dramatically and coverage is unavailable or is rationed at the new prices. A recent explanation for such crises is the "capacity constraint" model of Gron and Winter. Crises usually follow sudden and large depletions in insurers' equity or surplus. The capacity constraint model argues that frictional costs in replacing surplus, and limited liability, give rise to a kinked insurance supply function and that crises arise from discontinuous short term adjustments around the kink. While this model explains much about liability insurance crises, it still leaves unexplained their most prominent feature; that insurance is rationed or unavailable. We follow their insight in looking to equity shocks and capital market frictions to explain crises and combine this with a model of optimal risk sharing contracts under the information conditions characteristic of this market. We use implicit long term contracts with truth telling constraints to address information asymmetries and this allows us to model crises that exhibit rationing. Our model is tested in the market most dramatically affected by such crises in the 1980‘s, the general liability insurance market.     

China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence

The China–Africa relationship has blossomed in recent years and the scale and scope of Chinese engagement and investment in the latter have expanded enormously in the last decade. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamic linkages and volatility transmission mechanisms between Chinese and African stock markets in recent years while highlighting the relative importance of Chinese capital flows and investments. We utilise dynamic forecasting models including Bayesian VAR and BEKK GARCH to estimate both price and volatility behaviours of Chinese and 15 selected African stock markets. Our empirical results indicate strong evidence of spillover effects in terms of both price movement and volatility behaviour, implying that Chinese and African stock markets are showing signs of integration. For price movement, bidirectional feedback relationships between Chinese and most of the African stock markets are observed, suggesting that both Chinese and African stock markets could influence each other. China has been building a strong African partnership and, therefore, increasing its trade and investment influences in the region. Examining volatility transmissions, at least one spillover effect (shock and/or volatility) from China to most of the African stock markets is reported. This suggests that the Chinese stock market now plays an influential role across African stock markets given that it has major investments in 46 out of 54 countries. Our findings show important portfolio management implications as a surge in Chinese investments provide new portfolio diversification opportunities for international investors. Policy-wise, we believe further market-oriented reforms and carefully designed and long-term development policies are required to boost capacity for development and achieve sustainable trade and growth.