Medical Nemesis and Economic Health,or Economic Nemesis and Medical Health: The Modern Dilemma

Modern analyses of health trends recognize the importance of ‘life style’ or behavioural variables in health. But this has the effect of taking the emphasis off the real socioeconomic determinants of life style in modern society. In the present paper changing health patterns in Australia are examined and some explanations of these changes are considered. It is concluded that ‘life style’ explanations of modern ‘societal’ illness are a ‘cop-out‘. They ignore the deeper economic and social causes of life styles and in particular the dynamic relationship between these and a rapidly expanding growth economy. The question of whether medical health demands economic nemesis under a continuation of the growth system is considered in this light.     

面向2030:全球海洋经济发展的影响因素、趋势及对策建议

“保护和可持续利用海洋和海洋资源以促进可持续发展”被写入联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》,全球海洋经济的可持续发展已成为国际社会共同关注的热点问题之一,部分国际组织和沿海国家已率先启动了相关研究工作。本文总结了海洋经济的范畴及全球研究进展,提出了影响2030年全球海洋经济发展的七个主要因素,即全球经济的增长前景、技术创新与进步、人口增长及城镇化和老龄化问题、世界能源结构变化、地缘政治风险、气候变化与海洋的相互作用和海洋经济政策的实施;分析了未来全球海洋产业的发展趋势;最后提出了促进我国海洋经济可持续发展的五点对策建议。     

2006年国际油价预测及对以后走势的判断

预测国际油价是世界各国难以割舍的课题和研究的热点问题之一。2005年国际油价走势远远超出较为合理的域值范围;影响2005年国际油价上涨的原因很多,但影响国际油价的因素主要是:经济增长、欧佩克生产能力、非欧佩克生产能力、石油需求量、天然气价格、煤价、石油消费弹性系数、欧佩克供求差额、非欧佩克供求差额、库存等;同时,在确定国际油价预测模型的基础上,对2006-2010年国际油价走势进行判断。     

Analyzing the Productive and Protective Dimensions of Welfare: Looking Beyond the OECD

Several theorists have argued that social policy in East Asia can be seen as representing a distinctive welfare ideal type based around ‘productive welfare’. However, we have contested such claims in earlier work (Hudson and Kühner 2009) and, in common with theorists such as Castells, have suggested that some of the welfare states of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) have a distinct bias towards the ‘productive’ rather than ‘protective’ dimensions of welfare. In this article, we build on our earlier work, utilizing fuzzy set ideal type analysis (FSITA) to explore the balance between ‘productive' and ‘protective’ dimensions of welfare state activity. Here we extend our analysis beyond the OECD, incorporating a range of nations on the ‘fringe’ of the OECD from Latin America, East Asia and the non‐OECD parts of Europe. In so doing, we contest simple notions of welfare regimes aligning with regional blocks. Primarily, however, we highlight the advantages of the ‘diversity‐orientated’ approach to data analysis that fuzzy set methods facilitate in comparison with standard quantitative techniques. In particular, we utilize FSITA to avoid data availability and reliability issues that have plagued quantitatively informed classifications of global welfare regimes. Not least, we argue FSITA allows for the contextualization of cases in a way that is sealed to quantitatively driven, comparative research. Thus, we argue FSITA has an important role to play in attempts to extend the inclusiveness of the ‘welfare modelling business’ in a manner that reflects diverse and highly significant cases beyond the Western lens that dominates the literature.     

中日关系:知命之年的新认知CSSCI

自1972年恢复邦交,中日关系已走过整整半个世纪的历程,步入了知命之年。由于围绕中日关系的两国自身、地区和全球环境均已发生全面、深刻变化,导致步入知命之年的中日关系依然存有诸多事关重大、亟待重新认知的“未知”。本文主要从两国各自的基本发展态势、环绕周围的东亚地区秩序,以及身处其中的世界百年变局等三大层面,对步入知命之年的中日关系进行重新认知。在两国各自发展态势层面,主要分析了增长态势逆转、实力对比变化、依存位势转变、政经互动态势改变等产生的多重影响,对知命之年的中日关系进行了新的定位;在东亚地区秩序层面,重点讨论了中日关系发展与东亚秩序演变之间的多重关联和高度互动,基于东亚“增长奇迹”和“合作奇迹”的“创造”与“再造”的地域视域,对知命之年的中日关系进行了新的观察;在世界百年变局层面,系统探究了世界百年变局快速变化和加速演进,尤其是新兴市场群体快速崛起、全球治理体系快速变革、大国实力对比快速变化带来的新机遇和新挑战,对知命之年的中日关系进行了新的思考。     

Third Way Social Governance: Where is the State?

The ‘Third Way’ politics of Blair's New Labour government of the United Kingdom has popularised a number of policy reforms centred on a supposedly new discourse of ‘devolution’, ‘inclusion’, ‘partnerships’ and ‘community’. These notions reflect a re‐emergence of the ideas and values of civil society, participation and localism. Key drivers of this discourse are: new conceptions of citizenship; a retreat from the social state to a politics of community; and a questioning of both ‘big‐state’ interventionist and competitive market approaches to public policy. These trends have resonance in the Australian context. The welfare reform agenda of the Australian Commonwealth government together with community building and engagement initiatives of State governments have been sites for these policy directions. Much of the debate surrounding these policies excludes or minimises the fundamental role of an active state by focusing on an uncritical conception of community. Drawing on the notion of network governance, an alternative framework for re‐conceptualising state‐community relations and delivering improved community outcomes is posited. The paper concludes by suggesting possible social governance methodologies for actioning this framework.     

The origins of the ‘creative class’: provincial urban society,scientific culture and socio-political marginality in Britain in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries1

Recent historiography has revealed the importance of scientific culture in British society during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, with scientific knowledge shown to have been central in a wide range of sites and contexts, from botanical gardens to mechanics’ institutes. The article draws upon the insights of historians of science, urban historians and others to argue that the concept of the English ‘urban renaissance’, the Habermasean model of the public sphere, various aspects of post-structural, post-modern and feminist theory, and attention to ‘the space’ and geography can all be used to enhance the understanding of this culture. Given that scientific culture has often been associated with social groups that have sometimes been described as ‘marginal’, the article explores the historiography of various aspects of what it defines as the ‘marginal model’ of cultural expression. Aspects of its various manifestations are explored with special reference to groups often perceived as ‘alternative’ or ‘peripheral’ to ‘dominant’ or majority culture, such as women, dissenters, gays or immigrants, including recent work in the United States concerning the activities of the ‘creative class’. It is contended that this can illuminate our understanding of British scientific culture, for instance through its emphasis on urban and regional differentiation and on the irrational aspects of intellectual endeavour. The study assesses how successfully models of social marginality account for the varied character and geography of this culture, using case-studies of scientific societies in different types of English town and a review of Scottish Enlightenment science.     

中俄能源合作的新机遇与路径——以页岩气革命为背景

美国页岩气革命和全球页岩气热将加快全球油气生产中心向西移动和消费中心向东移动的趋势．在一定程度上削弱俄罗斯对国际天然气市场的控制力，迫使其更加关注远东市场。页岩气革命引发的国际能源格局的深刻变革或将为推动中俄能源合作带来新契机，加速俄罗斯天然气出口重心向东转移，此外，我国页岩气发展的良好前景对中俄能源合作具有积极的影响。页岩气革命背景下，我国应摸清俄罗斯能源外交的战略意图，建立政治互信，多层次推动中俄能源合作；积极参与俄罗斯能源开发合作，加强能源价格方面的合作；在中俄毗邻地区设置能源合作共同开发区，积极开展新能源和节能减排技术的开发和利用。     

The Great Cut: The Support for Private Modes of Social Evasion by Public Policy

The counterpart city represents an attempt to conceptualize the hidden spaces inhabited by social problems and ‘problem’ people who are counter to the mainstream, or included, modes of contemporary urban social life. This ‘opposite’, or negative, space comprises the spatially withdrawn and socially excluded who are largely outside the purview of the comfortable classes of the same cities. Not only has residential segregation been sustained over recent decades, so too have mobile circuits of mutual exclusion been created, which enable higher‐income groups to avoid the associated negative externalities of poverty (visibility, disorder, aggression and so on). As responsibility for dealing with social risks has become devolved to the level of the household, the desire for social evasion, as politicians, media systems and welfare patterns mark out threatening territories, has become more evident. The counterpart city is shunned in ever more elaborate ways and with the support of public policies. As the ‘spatial’ social policies, housing and urban, have become increasingly criminalized in the focus of their agendas, such interventions expend energy to facilitate this separation between affluent and poor. Traditional imperatives for public intervention are diminished as poverty has become more concealed from affluence – its costs and impacts evaded by technologies, socio‐spatial circuits and policies that skirt those who are locked into places of poverty and abject marginality, a constellation of social forces and effects I term the great cut.     

Just deserts? ‘Privatisation’ and the history of deservingness in Australia's retirement incomes system

Over the last few decades, changes in Australia's retirement incomes policy, including the introduction of compulsory superannuation, have seen governments encourage individuals to provide for their own old age from private means. This process has been described as ‘privatisation’ of retirement incomes. However, beyond the ‘privatisation’ thesis, there has been little critical examination of what these changes have meant for the nature and relative importance of the different principles underpinning Australia's retirement incomes system. This paper aims to provide such an examination. Drawing on the principles of deservingness and need, the paper provides an historical analysis of the development of Australia's retirement incomes system, tracing how these two principles underpinned the first age pension and subsequently contributed to the emergence of compulsory superannuation. This approach provides a deeper understanding of how contemporary policy changes have altered the structure of Australia's retirement incomes system, arguing that there are important historical continuities as well as changes. It argues that the phrase ‘state‐supported private saving’, rather than ‘privatisation’, captures the nature of this contemporary reform process.     

Neoliberalism,Inequality and Politics: The Changing Face of Australia

Since the early 1980s Australian public policy has undergone the most major transformation since Federation. This transformation has been underwritten by two key principles: liberalism – the view that citizens are autonomous individual actors whose interests are best served when they are free from coercive government interventions into individual action; and marketisation – the belief that free markets are arenas which best enable individual autonomy and produce efficient economic outcomes. These principles define ‘neoliberalism’ or ‘hard liberalism‘. After summarising the major policy changes identified with neoliberalism in Australia, the paper introduces a new research project that examines its impact on socioeconomic inequality, gender inequality and politics and culture. Inspection of relevant data indicates that there are important trends in inequality, public opinion and political behaviour that warrant this investigation.     

北京市家庭生活用能消费的基本格局与政策取向

近年来,北京市生活用能增长较快,消费结构呈现清洁化趋势,但城乡差距明显,消费波动较大,不同收入家庭之间的用能消费不均衡现象严重。在这种情况下,如何制定合理的政策,解决用能消费不均衡等问题,是北京市的经济建设能否可持续发展的一个关键因素。     

缅甸石油天然气产业发展与外资对缅甸油气资源的开发

随着世界能源消耗量的日益增加,缅甸丰富的油气资源吸引了各国的关注,加上其特殊的地理位置,亚太地区主要国家都在围绕缅甸能源展开激烈的博弈。当前,缅甸新政府实施了一系列引资新政策,鼓励外国企业在缅甸投资发展,缅甸能源开发有加速的趋势。     

CONSOLIDATING AN INDUSTRY AND PROLONGING DEPENDENCY: PROFESSIONALS,POLICIES AND YOUNG PEOPLE

This article examines the nexus between professionalism and the representation of social problems among some young people. It considers how policy and professional interventions involve problem-setting as well as problem-solving activities. A central argument is that a primary effect of both professional activities and of major changes to the youth labour market has been an extension of dependency for many young people. No matter how young people experience the disappearance of the youth labour market, the fact remains: most young people have been permanently excluded from full-time work. As we reach the close of the twentieth century and without essentialising ‘youth’ it seems that more and more young people are unable to live autonomous lives that resemble adulthood until their mid-twenties. For some young people staying on in education, remaining out of the full-time labour market until their mid-twenties may not mark a dramatic shift in their experiences, but for other young people such trends have a dramatic impact on their life-worlds.     

经济差距对大学生消费价值观的影响

本文以大学生为调查对象来研究经济差距对个体消费价值观的影响。由于消费价值观的结构维度没有统一的标准,因此从消费形态和文化价值观两个层面进行调研并得出以下结论:经济消费水平差距对大学生心理和生活产生了明显影响;经济差距对于一些深受文化价值观影响并带有成长习得性特征的消费形态因素无法在短期内产生明显影响,但对于一些新近养成的消费形态因素已经产生明显影响;经济差距虽然尚未显著影响到大学生深层次文化价值观取向的转变,但是也已产生了一定影响。     

POWER AND ADDICTION: THE MAKING OF THE MODERN ADDICT

This article provides a genealogical analysis of the ‘discovery’ of the modern phenomenon of addiction. It considers how the emergence of a bio-politics of the population in the industrialising West facilitated the invention of addiction and supported an argument for the regulation of opiate use. As a result of regulation, particular patterns of opiate use became increasingly visible. In response the medical profession, in the late nineteenth century, through the use of power-knowledge strategies transformed opiate use from a diverse set of social valuations to a unified pathology associated with madness, or unreason. This constitution of addiction as a negative category has been developed and appropriated by other discourses to provide the foundation for disciplinary interventions directed towards the regulation of undesirable patterns of consumption.     

Restructuring for import competition from developing countries,I: Labor displacement and economic redeployment in the United States

The widely-held belief that imports into America have been responsible for job losses in labor intensive industries is examined. It is shown that economic growth impacts on these industries, and that productivity growth and chaning demand patterns, have been quantitatively larger than changes in trade levels affecting employment in individual industries. It is concluded that protection can do very little to affect employment trends in affected industries.     

The State and its Welfare State: How do Welfare State Changes Affect the Make‐up of the Nation State?

With respect to changes in the welfare states of OECD countries, scholars most of the time are looking for common trends; that is, they look for similar movements in different states, such as welfare state retrenchment, recalibration, etc. As we show in this article, data on welfare state spending and financing do not, however, support such stark tendencies like retrenchment. We therefore suggest looking for corridor effects rather than level effects, i.e. analysing changes in the dispersion of welfare state regimes rather than shifts in the mean values. Our analysis suggests that convergence, i.e. decreasing diversity among states in spending, financing and regulation patterns, may have been the most important pattern of welfare state change in the last three decades – a pattern easily overlooked in past and current research. Convergence of welfare state regimes also affects our views on the modern nation state itself since the varieties of welfare capitalism in the twentieth century are themselves an expression of the sovereignty and autonomy of the nation state. If nation states are forced to surrender national particularities, to mellow their characteristic differences and to move incrementally towards a one‐size‐fits‐all common model via ‘shrinking corridors’, such a blurring of welfare regimes, such a beclouding of difference, should also be regarded as a significant change taking place in the centre of the Western nation state's make‐up.     

Four Problems of the SCO in Connection with Its Enlargement

One of the main issues facing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is its enlargement. Traditionally, this issue has been viewed in terms of practical policy. The longer this dispute over enlargement drags on, however, the greater the depth it acquires. The enlargement debate reflects the unique political culture of the SCO. Another issue well-known from other organizations also arises—“different levels” in the admission of new participants. But the question of the organization’s future is emerging in discussions of enlargement as the main matter in dispute: is it to be a global future (as Russia is more inclined to see it) or a regional future (as China is more inclined to see it)? Thus, the SCO faces one of the most important conflicts of today’s world—that between globalization and regionalization. While debates about these trends and the relationship between them continue in the political, economic, and social sciences, the SCO has to make a practical choice in favor of one of the trends or find a way to combine them in determining its work priorities. The authors reformulate the issue of enlargement as a problem of finding a balance between globalizing and regionalizing trends in the SCO strategy. At the practical level this will make it possible to reconcile the basic interests of Russia and China in Eurasia.     

印度地区安全知觉中的中国意象——基于2002～2003年度至2018～2019年度印度国防报告的分析

印度是中国在亚洲最大的邻国,在中国周边安全战略中具有举足轻重的地位,如何处理好与印度的关系一直是中国外交战略中的重要课题.洞朗对峙之后,中印两国高层保持了频繁紧密的交往,两国关系得到极大改善.客观来看,鉴于中国在印度地区安全知觉意象中的复杂性,中印关系的发展仍然面临不容忽视的挑战.在中印关系中,双方的安全知觉是错位的,即在周边安全环境中,中国并不认为印度是中国安全环境面临的主要威胁,印度则认为中国是其周边安全环境中最首要的因素.在这点上,从2002~2003年度至2018~2019年度印度国防报告中均有体现.毋庸置疑,历年的印度国防报告形成于印度安全知觉与实践的基础之上,较为系统地反映了印度在全球与地区层面对中国的安全知觉意象,涉及中国的内容也较为全面地反映了印度对中国在其地区安全架构中的看法与知觉.厘清这些印度对华安全知觉意象对于思考未来中印关系的走向具有重要意义.同时,根据历年印度国防报告及其综合的外交实践,大致可以勾勒出印度对华安全战略的形态.研究认为,如何稳妥地促进印度地区安全知觉中中国意象的转变是中印关系健康发展面临的重大挑战,也是一项紧迫任务.