移动通信业的客户细分和保持策略

文章在考虑到客户的过去利润贡献、未来收益和客户流失率的情况下,针对电信运营商的客户特点,给出了客户当前价值、客户潜在价值和客户忠诚度的计算方法和过程,提出一个基于客户当前价值、客户潜在价值和客户忠诚度三维移动客户细分模型,并针对不同的细分群体提出相应的客户保持策略,为电信运营商有针对性地开展客户维系和新业务开拓工作提供科学的方法。     

工业品产品配置的管理方法

产品配置方法是实现大规模定制生产模式的关键技术,本文指出在产品配置方面工业品具有区别于一般消费品的特性,并提出了一种工业品产品配置方法,该方法可以有效地实现工业品产品基于客户需求的快速配置。最后,将该方法运用于实际案例中,验证了该方法的有效性。     

知识服务业背景下客户市场细分的聚类方法研究

知识服务业所面对的客户需求具有知识化、专业化及问题解决为导向等特征.在服务过程中客户具有高度的参与性和交互性.文章指出客户市场细分不再局限于事前细分方法中常见的客户行为特征变量,提出了基于态度变量的客户市场事后细分策略,介绍了传统聚类方法K-means和SOFM方法在市场细分中的应用,以及支持向量机聚类方法(SVC)进行知识服务业的客户市场细分的过程.应用SVC方法于具体行业实施客户市场细分,并对比三种方法的聚类效果,说明了该方法对于提高判别分类效果的能力和优势.     

客户需求分布的非线性统计分析模型

文章提供了一种统计分析模型,能够对高新技术设备制造商研究客户构成及其资产规模分布和营业规模分布提供帮助,使厂家能以低成本和及时快捷的方式获得特定客户需求信息。此模型利用国家发布的社会经济统计资料,数据来源准确,易在企业咨询中推广应用。     

一种基于C5.0决策树的客户流失预测模型研究

客户流失是企业面临的一项突出问题。防止客户流失、尽力维系与挽留客户已成为企业经营与发展的一项重要课题。本文利用C5.0决策树算法建立了一种客户流失的预测模型,并利用中国邮政短信服务的400多万条实际业务数据,对模型的有效性进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,该模型提供了较高的命中率和覆盖率,具有良好的预警功能,可帮助企业及时发现有可能流失的客户,最大程度减少客户流失。     

基于Probit模型的客户累积保持率分析

客户累积保持率是描述永久性流失客户交易行为的基本指标,是企业客户关系管理的晴雨表,也是计算客户终生价值的重要参数。目前有效的客户保持率估计方法还没有定论,本文应用Probit模型给出计算客户累积保持率的一种新方法。     

对保险公司客户满意度的测评

层次分析法适用于对定性问题进行定量分析,文章运用该法对保险公司客户满意度构建层次指标体系,并得出权重值和客户满意度定量评价值计算方法,同时给出相应的提高客户满意度的措施建议.     

基于商业智能的航空货运客户细分

在资源有限的条件下,企业必须将资源投放到那些有利可图的客户上,因此有必要进行客户细分,对于处在激烈竞争环境中的航空货运尤其如此.文章借鉴客户价值理论,并结合航空货运客户管理特点构建航空货运客户价值预测模型,基于此,结合商业智能技术,提出基于商业智能的航空货运客户细分方法,并分析各细分层次的构成要素.     

电信企业客户流失预测模型

本文将支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)应用于客户流失预测研究中,通过实证研究,证实了该方法用于电信企业客户流失预测比BP神经网络更具有效性和优越性.     

基于Logistic回归模型的会员制营销客户分类方法

文章研究了会员制营销中会员分类的问题,建立了基于1ogistic回归模型的会员制营销客户分类方法,该方法可以充分利用会员数据库中信息,找出影响会员忠诚度的因素并加以量化.该分类方法不仅可以用来对老会员进行客观准确的分类,而且可以用来预测新会员能否成为忠诚客户,为决策者制订个性化服务策略提供了重要参考依据.     

基于新三维客户细分模型的线上会员客户价值研究

从客户的当前价值、潜在价值、忠诚度价值三个方面出发,建立适用于线上企业的会员客户价值评价指标体系。同时,在传统RFM模型的基础上构建了新三维的客户细分模型,并根据改进的客户价值细分维度进一步细分客户,利用主成分分析法计算每个客户群的价值得分。最终选取某网站的会员客户数据进行算例分析,通过识别不同客户群体、价值和状态,为企业实施精准营销提供更加细致的客户细分依据。     

Analysing organic food buyers' perceptions with Bayesian networks: a case study in Turkey

Bayesian network (BN) is an efficient graphical method that uses directed acyclic graphs (DAG) to provide information about a set of data. BNs consist of nodes and arcs (or edges) where nodes represent variables and arcs represent relations and influences between nodes. Interest in organic food has been increasing in the world during the last decade. The same trend is also valid in Turkey. Although there are numerous studies that deal with customer perception of organic food and customer characteristics, none of them used BNs. Thus, this study, which shows a new application area of BNs, aims to reveal the perception and characteristics of organic food buyers. In this work, a survey is designed and applied in seven different organic bazaars in Turkey. Afterwards, BNs are constructed with the data gathered from 611 organic food consumers. The findings match with the previous studies as factors such as health, environmental factors, food availability, product price, consumers' income and trust to organization are found to influence consumers effectively.     

基于重复购买理论的一种新的客户选择方法

在今天越来越激烈的市场竞争之中,越来越多的公司已经从产品驱动的市场竞争策略转向客户驱动的市场竞争策略。并且随着计算机技术及数据挖掘方法的飞速发展,直接市场营销越来越受到重视。如何选择目标客户邮寄货单的问题也就越来越引起市场直销者的兴趣。计分模型及增益表选择方法和单群预测及选择方法是目前普遍采用的两种客户选择方法。在平稳市场的假设下,客户的购买模式服从著名的重复购买理论。基于这个理论,本文提出了一种新的客户选择方法,即两群预测及选择方法。应用实际的客户数据比较这三种不同的方法,结果表明新方法表现最好。     

关于顾客满意度调查的若干思考

本文按照ISO9000:2000(GB/T19000-2000)讨论了顾客和顾客满意度的几个基本概念,介绍了一些顾客满意度调查的知识和国外顾客满意度调查的实施,论述了国内外顾客满意度调查的重要作用。指出中国应该重视顾客满意度调查,正确地进行顾客满意度调查,利用顾客满意度调查的结果来提高企业和国家的竞争力。     

商场购物环境、顾客感知价值与企业竞争优势关系研究

基于对415名消费者的随机抽样调研数据,从理论和实证两方面研究了商场购物环境、顾客感知价值及零售企业竞争优势间的相互关系。研究表明,购物环境以顾客信任和购物体验价值为中介变量,正向影响企业竞争优势的获得,且购物环境中的氛围因素、社会因素正向影响顾客体验价值;顾客信任受氛围因素、社会因素、设计因素和体验价值等显著正向影响;体验价值和顾客信任显著正向影响企业竞争优势的获得。     

Bayesian Inference for Assessing Effects of Email Marketing Campaigns

Email marketing has been an increasingly important tool for today’s businesses. In this article, we propose a counting-process-based Bayesian method for quantifying the effectiveness of email marketing campaigns in conjunction with customer characteristics. Our model explicitly addresses the seasonality of data, accounts for the impact of customer characteristics on their purchasing behavior, and evaluates effects of email offers as well as their interactions with customer characteristics. Using the proposed method, together with a propensity-score-based unit-matching technique for alleviating potential confounding, we analyze a large email marketing dataset of an online ticket marketplace to evaluate the short- and long-term effectiveness of their email campaigns. It is shown that email offers can increase customer purchase rate both immediately and during a longer term. Customers’ characteristics such as length of shopping history, purchase recency, average ticket price, average ticket count, and number of genres purchased also affect customers’ purchase rate. A strong positive interaction is uncovered between email offer and purchase recency, suggesting that customers who have been inactive recently are more likely to take advantage of promotional offers. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

顾客满意度模型的样本量研究

本文在对顾客满意度模型及其估计方法PLS（Partial Least Square）进行简单讨论的基础上,详细研究了顾客满意度模型PLS估计方法需要的样本量,并针对中国顾客满意度研究的实际案例数据,给出了顾客满意度模型的样本量要求的建议,对顾客满意度实践有指导意义。     

Multidimensional item response theory models for dichotomous data in customer satisfaction evaluation

In this paper, multidimensional item response theory models for dichotomous data, developed in the fields of psychometrics and ability assessment, are discussed in connection with the problem of evaluating customer satisfaction. These models allow us to take into account latent constructs at various degrees of complexity and provide interesting new perspectives for services quality assessment. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are considered for estimation. An application to a real data set is also presented.     

Two steps generalized maximum entropy estimation procedure for fitting linear regression when both covariates are subject to error

This paper presents a procedure utilizing the generalized maximum entropy (GME) estimation method in two steps to quantify the uncertainty of the simple linear structural measurement error model parameters exactly. The first step estimates the unknowns from the horizontal line, and then the estimates were used in a second step to estimate the unknowns from the vertical line. The proposed estimation procedure has the ability to minimize the number of unknown parameters in formulating the GME system within each step, and hence reduce variability of the estimates. Analytical and illustrative Monte Carlo simulation comparison experiments with the maximum likelihood estimators and a one-step GME estimation procedure were presented. Simulation experiments demonstrated that the two steps estimation procedure produced parameter estimates that are more accurate and more efficient than the classical estimation methods. An application of the proposed method is illustrated using a data set gathered from the Centre for Integrated Government Services in Delma Island – UAE to predict the association between perceived quality and the customer satisfaction.     

汽车4S店顾客满意度模型及其实证研究——以天津丰田汽车4S店为例

构建了以感知硬件质量和感知软件质量为外生变量,以感知价值和顾客满意为中介变量,以重复购买意向和正面口碑相传为结果变量的汽车4S店顾客满意度模型,并对其进行实证检验,研究发现:感知硬件质量对购后行为意向没有显著的直接影响,而是通过感知价值和顾客满意间接作用于购后行为意向;感知软件质量只对重复购买意向有显著的直接正向影响,同时也会通过感知价值和顾客满意对购买行为意向产生间接的作用;感知硬件质量对顾客满意的作用力最强;汽车的外观设计与感知硬件质量的相关性最强;供应的零配件质量与感知软件质量的相关性最强。