LARGE DEMOGRAPHIC SHOCKS AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE MARRIAGE MARKET

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced a drastic famine. The famine substantially reduced birth rates and also adversely affected the health of these famine‐born cohorts. This paper provides nonparametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behavior of famine‐affected cohorts in rural Sichuan and Anhui. These reduced‐form estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects. The paper uses the Choo–Siow model to decompose observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects. A decline in marital attractiveness of famine‐affected cohorts, which is correlated with an increase in marital childlessness, provides support for the external validity of the Choo–Siow decomposition. The small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine‐born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their marital attractiveness.     

British Petroleum: An Egregious Violation of the Ethic of First and Second Things

This study analyzes BP's crisis communication related to the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Specifically, we observe how an organization whose priorities are misaligned with the ethic of first and second things has a severely limited capacity for delivering a crisis message that resonates with the general public, and especially those most affected by the disaster. Organizational connectedness and Lewis' essays on the ethic of first and second things are discussed and research on virtuous responses to crisis and renewal discourse is highlighted to explain how BP's focus on maximizing profit over safety and the environment stymied their communication efforts. A discourse of renewal is suggested as essential for the organization to regain connectedness post‐crisis.     

Unequal Opportunities for Young People with Immigrant Backgrounds in the Swedish Labour Market

Abstract. This paper investigates labour‐market performance for ‘young people with immigrant backgrounds’ and those ‘born in Sweden with native‐born parents’ in the Swedish labour market. It focuses on young people who were aged 18–20 during 1990, and their labour‐market status after 8 years, in 1998. The results indicate that young people of immigrant descent have lower annual wage income and are at higher risk of not being employed than those born in Sweden with native‐born parents. Differences in human capital characteristics cannot explain these results. Other theories, which stress the effect of discriminatory behaviour and the power of social network composition, are discussed as alternative interpretations. Having one native‐born parent is considered to be important to labour market success. However, having a native‐born father rather than a native‐born mother is associated with better labour‐market achievement.     

Survival during a Crisis: Alliances by Singapore Firms

In this study, we focus on the under‐researched issue of how environmental shocks impact alliance survival. We draw from several different theoretical perspectives such as industrial organization economics, managerial theories of the firm (such as agency theory) and institutional theories. We argue that the relationship between the occurrence of environmental shock and alliance survival is a contingent one. Specifically, we hypothesize that the following types of alliances will exhibit better likelihood of survival: alliances that yield a balance of short‐term and long‐term benefits (scale alliances) rather than purely long‐term benefits (link alliances); alliances that lead to either cost reduction or near‐term improvement in revenue realization (marketing alliances); and alliances that bring together partners from different economic regions (those involving Western and Asian partners). Based on an analysis of 348 alliances formed by Singapore firms, we find that marketing alliances and those involving at least one Western partner indeed exhibit a better likelihood of survival during the Asian economic crisis. We conclude that alliances that can enhance revenue potential in the short‐term are more robust to environmental shocks and that alliances can benefit from an effect similar to risk reduction through international diversification.     

次贷危机前后国际原油市场与中美股票市场间的协动性研究

本文运用基于动态条件相关的多元GARCH(DCC-MVGARCH)模型,对美国次信贷危机发生前后国际原油市场和中、美股票市场间的协动性变化进行了研究。实证结果表明在次信贷危机发生后,国际原油市场与中、美股票市场间的协动性有了明显的增强,不同市场间的波动具有明显的传导作用。国际原油市场与美国股市的协动性相对于中国股市波动性更强,说明冲击在国际原油市场与美国股市间的传导更强烈,其协动性对冲击的反应更敏感。另外,运用偏最小二乘方法(PLS)对影响国际原油市场和中、美股票市场的诸多因素在次信贷危机爆发前后对协动性解释能力的变化进行了分析,结果发现次信贷危机对这些因素的解释能力有明显的影响。     

Income Pooling between Australian Young Adults and Their Parents

We test whether young adults who co‐reside with their parents derive influence over household‐level expenditure by earning income. We propose a new variant of the Engel curve consistent with the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, which allows a simple test of income pooling. Our tests suggest that young adults and parents mostly pool their income — pooling is not rejected for 8 out of 12 expenditure categories. We are more likely to reject income pooling between young adults and their parents in those expenditure categories where the model fit is highest, so our results may be interpreted as an upper bound on income pooling. We also apply our tests to income pooling between husbands and wives and find that pooling holds for 9 out of 12 expenditure categories. We find the opposite relationship with fit — expenditure categories where fit is poor are those where we are most likely to reject income pooling.     

A WORLD OF CITIES: THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF URBANIZATION IN POORER COUNTRIES

Historically, urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire. But there has been an explosion of poor mega‐cities over the last 30 years. A simple urban model illustrates that in closed economies, agricultural prosperity leads to more urbanization, but that in an open economy, urbanization increases with agricultural desperation. The challenge of developing world mega‐cities is that poverty and weak governance reduce the ability to address the negative externalities that come with density. This paper models the connection between urban size and institutional failure, and shows that urban anonymity causes institutions to break down. For large cities with weak governments, draconian policies may be the only way to curb negative externalities, suggesting a painful trade‐off between dictatorship and disorder. A simple model suggests that private provision of infrastructure to reduce negative externalities is less costly when city populations are low or institutions are strong, but that public provision can cost less in bigger cities.     

THE IMPACT OF INCOME SHOCKS ON HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM COHORT DATA

We study the effect of permanent income innovations on health for a prime‐aged population. Using information on more than half a million individuals sampled over a 25‐year period in three different cross‐sectional surveys we aggregate data by date‐of‐birth cohort to construct a “synthetic cohort” data set with details of income, expenditure, socio‐demographic factors, health outcomes, and selected risk factors. We then exploit structural and arguably exogenous changes in cohort incomes over the 1980s and 1990s to uncover causal effects of permanent income shocks on health. We find that such income innovations have little effect on a wide range of health measures, but do lead to increases in mortality and risky health behaviour. (JEL: I10, D31)     

CREDIT CONSTRAINTS AND THE CYCLICALITY OF R&D INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE

We use a French firm‐level data set containing 13,000 firms over the period 1994–2004 to analyze the relationship between credit constraints and firms’ R&D behavior over the business cycle. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) R&D investment is countercyclical without credit constraints, but it becomes procyclical as firms face tighter credit constraints; (ii) this result is only observed for firms in sectors that depend more heavily upon external finance, or that are characterized by a low degree of asset tangibility; (iii) in more credit‐constrained firms, R&D investment plummets during recessions but does not increase proportionally during upturns.     

Social innovation—Management''s new dimension

This Afterword is the final chapter in the author's recently published book of essays on the challenges of tomorrow that face the executive today. The future is in the hands of executives who are already fully occupied with the daily crisis. They need to understand the long-range implications and impacts of their immediate, everyday, urgent actions and decisions in relation to the far-reaching social innovations now taking place which are management's new and most significant dimension.     

国际金融危机对我国GDP影响到底多大?

本文利用区分加工出口的非竞争型投入产出模型,从受到金融危机影响最为直接的出口、投资角度出发,测算了国际金融危机对我国GDP到底产生了多大的影响。测算结果显示:金融危机对我国经济的负面影响是逐步加剧的;重点行业影响较为集中;由于我国宏观调控政策的及时准确,刺激经济计划的有效实施在很大程度上抵消了金融危机的影响。     

Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old‐Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy

Old‐age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the “Age 60 Rule” limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age‐related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)‐based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow‐up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG‐based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six‐month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time‐stable between‐person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding.     

Using a Web‐Based Diary Method to Estimate Risks and Benefits from Fish Consumption

Accurate estimates of the amount and type of fish people eat are necessary to determine the health benefits and risks of consuming fish, and to assess compliance with fish consumption guidelines issued for fish affected by chemical contaminants. We developed a web‐based and mobile‐phone‐enabled diary methodology to collect detailed fish consumption information for two 16‐week periods in the summers of 2014 and 2015. We recruited study participants from two populations living in the Great Lakes region—women of childbearing age (WCBA) and urban residents who had purchased fishing licenses. In this article, we describe the methodology in detail and provide evidence related to participation rates, the representativeness of our sample over time, and both convergent validity and reliability of the data collection methods. Overall, 56% of WCBA and 50% of urban anglers provided complete data across both data collection periods. Among those who provided information at the beginning of Year 2, 97% of both audiences provided information throughout the entire 16‐week period. Those who participated throughout the two‐year period were slightly older on average (1.9–2.5 years) than other members of our original samples. We conclude that using diaries with web and smartphone technology, combined with incentives and persistent communication, has strong potential for assessing fish consumption in other areas of the country or for situations where the potential risks associated with fish consumption are substantial and the cost can be justified.     

Societal Response to Hurricane Mitch and Intra‐ versus Intergenerational Equity Issues: Whose Norms Should Apply?

Late in the 1998 hurricane season, Central America was slammed by a devastating hurricane. Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Belize were greatly impacted by Hurricane Mitch, one of the deadliest storms to affect the region in the past 200 years. The economies of each of these countries were badly affected. In the case of Honduras — at the time the fourth‐poorest country in Latin America — its president suggested that 50 years of progress had been wiped out by the floods and mudslides associated with this relatively short‐lived storm system. Humanitarian assistance poured into the region in the first months following the disaster. As of mid‐2000, various national, bilateral, international, and nongovernmental programs were in progress or on the drawing board for recovery, reconstruction, and renewed development of the worst affected countries. Using Honduras as a case study, some of the ethical issues that abound in the decisions of whom to help, when, and how to help them in the wake of such an extreme climate‐related human tragedy are examined. Should development assistance be focused on those who have been directly and adversely affected by this storm, or should the emphasis be on reducing the risk of exposure by future generations to such disasters? Is there yet another approach that seeks to protect future generations from similar harm while at the same time assisting present‐day victims to get through their hardships?     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS POLICY,COMPETITION AND INNOVATION

To what extent and in what form should the intellectual property rights (IPR) of innovators be protected? Should a company with a large technology lead over its rivals receive the same IPR protection as a company with a more limited advantage? In this paper, we develop a dynamic framework for the study of the interactions between IPR and competition, in particular to understand the impact of such policies on future incentives. The economy consists of many industries and firms engaged in cumulative (step‐by‐step) innovation. IPR policy regulates whether followers in an industry can copy the technology of the leader. We prove the existence of a steady‐state equilibrium and characterize some of its properties. We then quantitatively investigate the implications of different types of IPR policy on the equilibrium growth rate and welfare. The most important result from this exercise is that full patent protection is not optimal; instead, optimal policy involves state‐dependent IPR protection, providing greater protection to technology leaders that are further ahead than those that are close to their followers. This is because of a trickle‐down effect: providing greater protection to firms that are further ahead of their followers than a certain threshold increases the R&D incentives also for all technology leaders that are less advanced than this threshold.     

RELATIONSHIP LENDING DURING A FINANCIAL CRISIS

This paper studies whether relationship lending mitigates the transmission of the Lehman default shock to the supply of credit in Italy. Exploiting the presence of multiple banking relationships, we control for banks' and firms' unobserved characteristics. Results show that the growth of credit itself is higher and its cost lower the shorter the distance between the bank and the firm, the longer the relationship, and the higher the share of credit held by the bank. Credit growth by relationship lenders is 4.6% higher than that by transactional lenders; the increase in the cost of credit is 50 basis points lower. The positive effect of relationship lending on credit supply increased during the crisis, compared to a pre‐crisis period. The beneficial effect of relationship lending is weaker if the relationship lender is more exposed to the financial crisis, especially when lending to weaker borrowers.     

Statistical precision of DEA and Malmquist indices: A bootstrap application to Norwegian grain producers

Previous applications of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and its subsequent Malmquist indices to efficiency and productivity measurements have been criticised for not providing statistical inferences regarding the significance of observed results. In this paper, DEA and a Malmquist index are combined with a bootstrap method in order to provide succinct statistical inferences that determine the performance of grain producers in Eastern Norway. The data cover the period between 1987 and 1997. Results reveal: (i) a significant degree of inefficiency (approximately 11%) and an average productivity progress of 38% over the period considered; (ii) the formidable productivity progress observed is primarily explained by technical efficiency changes that enabled producers to catch up with front runners; and (iii) environmental factors, such as weather conditions, impact both efficiency and productivity. Finally, the analysis reveals that using bootstrapping to make statistical inferences suggests that researchers should be careful in making performance comparisons based on conventional DEA methods, as any discovered differences may not be significant.     

王永庆身后奈何纷争不断?

未来5～10年,将是家族企业新老交替的动荡期"交接班危机将成为中国民营企业发展的第一大难题!未来5～10年,将是家族企业新老交替的动荡期。"方太集团董事长茅理翔接受《经理人》采     

Structural invariance and stability of sense of coherence: A longitudinal analysis of two groups with different employment experiences

This 5-year follow-up study investigated the structure and the factorial invariance of the 13-item sense of coherence (SOC) scale (Antonovsky, ) in two employment groups (unemployment/lay-off experiences vs. continuous full-time employment) and across two measurement times. In addition, the stability of SOC between these two employment groups was compared. The postal questionnaire data was collected twice, in 1992 and in 1997. The participants were Finnish technical designers (N=352) aged between 25 and 40 years in 1992. A total of 51% of the investigated participants had been employed full-time during the 5-year follow-up period and 49% had been unemployed and/or laid off for a total period of at least one month during the follow-up. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the SOC scale measured one general second-order SOC factor consisting of three, first-order factors of meaningfulness, comprehensibility, and manageability. The results also indicated that the scale was best used as an 11-item measure. The factorial invariance of the scale across time and across the two employment groups was supported by the data. Unexpectedly, the stability of SOC did not differ between the two employment groups. However, those participants who had experienced unemployment and/or been laid off during the follow-up period had a weaker SOC at both measurement times than those who had been employed throughout the follow-up.