Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector

One of the most striking changes in the U.S. economy over the past 50 years has been the growth in the service sector. Between 1950 and 2000, service‐sector employment grew from 57 to 75 percent of total employment. However, over this time, the real hourly wage in the service sector grew only slightly faster than in the goods sector. In this paper, we assess whether or not the essential constancy of the relative wage implies that individuals face small costs of switching sectors, and we quantify the relative importance of labor supply and demand factors in the growth of the service sector. We specify and estimate a two‐sector labor market equilibrium model that allows us to address these empirical issues in a unified framework. Our estimates imply that there are large mobility costs: output in both sectors would have been double their current levels if these mobility costs had been zero. In addition, we find that demand‐side factors, that is, technological change and movements in product and capital prices, were responsible for the growth of the service sector.     

Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China

The benefits of the multi‐faceted liberalization of the Chinese economy can be seen in various indicators of economic development. The rate of growth of the economy, the flow of foreign investment in China, and rising quality of life are some of the indicators of gains from the liberalization process. Most of the research has focused on the role of trade reforms on the Chinese economy. There is, however, one unfinished agenda that has not been addressed adequately by policy makers as well as academia, i.e. labor‐sector reforms. In this paper, we analyze the effect of labor market liberalization in China using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Most CGE models on China using a neoclassical approach assume that there is a single wage rate for the economy. This is a simplifying assumption and has strong implications. Studies show that inter‐industry wage differentials persist even after accounting for obvious explanations such as differences in human capital or job hazard. Inter‐industry structural rigidities in developing countries lead to wage differentials. In China, labor mobility from the rural to the urban sector is restricted. Furthermore, China is on its way to joining the WTO agreement. As a signatory to the WTO agreement, China would be required to reform its trade sector by eliminating tariffs. In this paper, we explicitly model wage differentials in the case of the Chinese economy. Various counterfactual experiments have been conducted to introduce efficiency by the removal of factor market differentials in China in the presence and absence of tariff and non‐tariff barriers. Our results indicate that factor market reforms are essential to the realization of full gains from accession to the WTO agreement.     

(Un)equal Educational Opportunities and the Labor Market: A Theoretical Analysis

This paper intends to study the effects of public school quality offer on the labor market performance. With this objective in mind, we build a matching model for the labor market in two sectors: schooled and non‐schooled. The skilled segment of the economy is endogenous and composed of a continuum of workers who differ in the quality of the school attended. We show that there is a trade‐off between the quantity and the quality of education and that a reduction in schooling costs increases school enrollment rates. However, it adversely reduces the job creation dynamics in the skilled sector, due to the Composition Effect. We also verify that a first order improvement in school quality distribution may generate an increase in the schooling rate and a greater job vacancy creation in the skilled sector with no negative effects on the unskilled sector.     

VOLATILITY,LABOR MARKET FLEXIBILITY,AND THE PATTERN OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

This paper studies the link between volatility, labor market flexibility, and international trade. International differences in labor market regulations affect how firms can adjust to idiosyncratic shocks. These institutional differences interact with sector specific differences in volatility (the variance of the firm‐specific shocks in a sector) to generate a new source of comparative advantage. Other things equal, countries with more flexible labor markets specialize in sectors with higher volatility. Empirical evidence for a large sample of countries strongly supports this theory: the exports of countries with more flexible labor markets are biased towards high‐volatility sectors. We show how differences in labor market institutions can be parsimoniously integrated into the workhorse model of Ricardian comparative advantage of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977, American Economic Review, 67, 823–839). We also show how our model can be extended to multiple factors of production.     

Prices,Markups, and Trade Reform

This paper examines how prices, markups, and marginal costs respond to trade liberalization. We develop a framework to estimate markups from production data with multi‐product firms. This approach does not require assumptions on the market structure or demand curves faced by firms, nor assumptions on how firms allocate their inputs across products. We exploit quantity and price information to disentangle markups from quantity‐based productivity, and then compute marginal costs by dividing observed prices by the estimated markups. We use India's trade liberalization episode to examine how firms adjust these performance measures. Not surprisingly, we find that trade liberalization lowers factory‐gate prices and that output tariff declines have the expected pro‐competitive effects. However, the price declines are small relative to the declines in marginal costs, which fall predominantly because of the input tariff liberalization. The reason for this incomplete cost pass‐through to prices is that firms offset their reductions in marginal costs by raising markups. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity and variability in markups across firms and time and suggest that producers benefited relative to consumers, at least immediately after the reforms.     

Market Volatility and the Structure of US Earnings

This paper studies the relationship between volatility of industry‐specific shipments and real earnings. In an efficiency wage theoretical framework I show that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment depend on the value of the worker’s outside offer net of his/her mobility costs. Empirically it is shown that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment markedly vary in a cross section of workers. The main finding is that market volatility changes the return to skill such as labor market experience and education. Its impact markedly varies across occupation groups, with managers receiving returns to labour market experience that significantly increase with product market volatility.     

The Determinants of Child Labour: The Role of Primary Product Specialization

Abstract. The paper tests predictions of a traditional intra‐household bargaining model which, under reasonable assumptions, shows that lack of bargaining power in the value chain significantly reduces the capacity for obtaining benefits from increased product demand arising from trade liberalization and therefore is positively associated with child labour. Cross‐sectional and panel negative binomial estimates in a sample of emerging countries support this hypothesis. They show that proxies of domestic workers’ bargaining power in the international division of labour (such as the share of primary product exports) are significantly related to child labour, net of the effect of traditional controls such as parental income, quality of education, international aid, and trade liberalization. The positive impact of the share of primary product exports on child labour outlines a potential paradox. The paradox suggests that trade liberalization does not always have straightforward positive effects on social indicators and that its short‐run effects on income distribution and distribution of skills and market power across countries need to be carefully evaluated.     

THE WELFARE GAINS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION: CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND HETEROGENEITY

Research has shown that, absent individual heterogeneity and under complete markets, the welfare impact of financial openness is quantitatively limited. Not only are inequalities in wealth and labor productivity a feature of most societies, but also financial markets suffer from many well‐known frictions. This paper demonstrates that, when households face borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks to income, the welfare implications of financial liberalization are considerable. For instance, the average increase in welfare of a typical emerging market economy that switches from a closed capital market to perfect capital mobility is equivalent to a permanent increase in average consumption of roughly 5.4%. This is about 3.9 times more than the welfare gains of the same policy under a complete markets environment without any individual heterogeneity. We show that individual heterogeneity accounts for two thirds of this additional increase in the average welfare gain; market incompleteness accounts for the remaining third. In our calibration, the median household in capital‐scarce countries is in favor of international financial integration. However, if the pivotal voter is wealthy enough then such reform might not be implemented, since richer households have a vested interest in capital market closedness.     

Efficiency Wage,Fixed Employment Costs,and Dual Labour Markets

The standard efficiency wage‐based explanation of labour market dualism hinges on the existence of differences in monitoring across sectors. The paper proposes fixed employment costs as an alternative source of wage differentials for homogeneous workers. It shows that firms with larger fixed costs pay higher wages in order to elicit more effort from their workers, and tend to have higher capital/labour ratio and labour productivity. The model generates both involuntary unemployment and involuntary confinement in the secondary sector: high effort–high wage jobs are preferred to low effort–low wage jobs and either are preferred to unemployment. The proposed framework can also account for the various types of treatment of marginal jobs in primary sector firms envisaged by Doeringer and Piore (Internal Labour Markets and Manpower Analysis, 1971). In particular, an increase in fixed costs beyond a certain level may induce primary sector firms to restructure, segment production, and enter the secondary sector, thus converting their jobs into secondary jobs. From a welfare point of view, we cannot state in general the desirability of subsidizing fixed employment costs; however, we show that an employment subsidy financed by a wage tax is able to increase employment with no loss in terms of production.     

Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes under Search,Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates

Building upon a continuous‐time model of search with Nash bargaining in a stationary environment, we analyze the effect of changes in minimum wages on labor market outcomes and welfare. Although minimum wage increases may or may not lead to increases in unemployment in our model, they can be welfare‐improving to labor market participants on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market. We discuss identification of the model using Current Population Survey data on accepted wages and unemployment durations, and show that by incorporating a limited amount of information from the demand side of the market it is possible to obtain credible and precise estimates of all primitive parameters. We show that the optimal minimum wage in 1996 depends critically on whether or not contact rates can be considered to be exogenous and we note that the limited variation in minimum wages makes testing this assumption problematic.     

A GLOBAL VIEW OF CROSS‐BORDER MIGRATION

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi‐sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm‐level data. Our framework features cross‐country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of migration to a no‐migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received a lot of migration—such as Canada or Australia—are better off due to greater product variety available in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run, the impact of migration on average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled natives tend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries with large emigration flows—such as Jamaica or El Salvador—are also better off due to migration, but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration is substantial, at about 5% to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries with large incoming remittances.     

LIBERALIZING A DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM: THE EUROPEAN CAR MARKET

We quantify the competitive effects of liberalizing the selective and exclusive distribution system in the European car market, based on a model of oligopoly pricing with differentiated products. We consider two possible competitive effects from liberalization: (i) the creation of international intrabrand competition (cross‐border trade), which will result in a reduction of international price discrimination; and (ii) a possible cumulative effect arising from a strengthening of national intrabrand competition, which would result in reduced double marginalization. We find that the reduction in international price discrimination mainly redistributes consumer gains across countries; it has a positive but modest effect on total welfare. If liberalization also has the cumulative effect of reducing double marginalization, the welfare effects are much higher. Finally, we find that the effects of liberalization on the manufacturers' profits are either small or positive. This finding implies that international price discrimination, and softening competition through a double marginalization mechanism, should not be interpreted as main profit motives for the previous distribution system, but only as unintended side effects. Hence, the industry rationale for maintaining the previous distribution system should be sought in other areas. (JEL: F15, L42)     

Endogenous Ranking and Equilibrium Lorenz Curve Across (ex ante) Identical Countries

This paper proposes a symmetry‐breaking model of trade with a (large but) finite number of (ex ante) identical countries and a continuum of tradeable goods, which differ in their dependence on local differentiated producer services. Productivity differences across countries arise endogenously through free entry to the local service sector in each country. In any stable equilibrium, the countries sort themselves into specializing in different sets of tradeable goods, and a strict ranking of countries in per capita income, TFP, and the capital‐labor ratio emerges endogenously. Furthermore, the distribution of country shares, the Lorenz curve, is unique and analytically solvable in the limit, as the number of countries grows unbounded. Using this limit as an approximation allows us to study what determines the shape of distribution, to perform various comparative statics, and to evaluate the welfare effects of trade.     

What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?

We show that deterioration in household balance sheets, or the housing net worth channel, played a significant role in the sharp decline in U.S. employment between 2007 and 2009. Counties with a larger decline in housing net worth experience a larger decline in non‐tradable employment. This result is not driven by industry‐specific supply‐side shocks, exposure to the construction sector, policy‐induced business uncertainty, or contemporaneous credit supply tightening. We find little evidence of labor market adjustment in response to the housing net worth shock. There is no significant expansion of the tradable sector in counties with the largest decline in housing net worth. Further, there is little evidence of wage adjustment within or emigration out of the hardest hit counties.     

Welfare Effects of Local versus Central Wage Bargaining

The paper analyses the welfare effects of union bargaining (de)centralization in a dual labour market with a unionized and a competitive sector. We show that social welfare depends on both the structure of the union's objective function and the elasticities of labour demand in both sectors. The welfare‐maximizing employment allocation can be obtained under a high degree of centralization if the union maximizes the total wage‐bill. Otherwise, if the union is rent maximizing, welfare is higher under local bargaining. However, in that case neither central nor local wage setting yields the social optimum.     

The Role of Career Choice in Understanding Job Mobility

This paper presents a simple model that explains how the likelihood of job changes and their complexity changes over a worker's career, and the empirical work presented here uses the life cycle patterns of mobility and their complexity to infer the relative importance of firm‐specific versus career‐specific concerns as determinants of mobility decisions. The estimates of the model indicate that the contemporaneous presence of two quality matches, one career‐specific and one firm‐specific, is necessary to understand the patterns of the data. The model also predicts that the welfare losses implied by a disappearance of a career can be on average twice as large as the losses implied by a plant closure.     

Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics

We study a model of lumpy investment wherein establishments face persistent shocks to common and plant‐specific productivity, and nonconvex adjustment costs lead them to pursue generalized (S, s) investment rules. We allow persistent heterogeneity in both capital and total factor productivity alongside low‐level investments exempt from adjustment costs to develop the first model consistent with the cross‐sectional distribution of establishment investment rates. Examining the implications of lumpy investment for aggregate dynamics in this setting, we find that they remain substantial when factor supply considerations are ignored, but are quantitatively irrelevant in general equilibrium. The substantial implications of general equilibrium extend beyond the dynamics of aggregate series. While the presence of idiosyncratic shocks makes the time‐averaged distribution of plant‐level investment rates largely invariant to market‐clearing movements in real wages and interest rates, we show that the dynamics of plants' investments differ sharply in their presence. Thus, model‐based estimations of capital adjustment costs involving panel data may be quite sensitive to the assumption about equilibrium. Our analysis also offers new insights about how nonconvex adjustment costs influence investment at the plant. When establishments face idiosyncratic productivity shocks consistent with existing estimates, we find that nonconvex costs do not cause lumpy investments, but act to eliminate them.     

Exploring Job Satisfaction in Private and Public Employment: Empirical Evidence from Greece

Abstract. This paper analyses subjective job satisfaction (JS) responses by employees in the public and private sectors of the Greek labour market. Panel data covering the period 1995–2001 and a random effects ordered probit model are used for estimation purposes. The results of the econometric estimation show that a substantial JS differential exists between the two sectors, in every JS domain and always in favour of public employment. A typical ordered decomposition analysis indicates that about one‐third of the difference in expected JS can be explained by differences in employee characteristics and two‐thirds by unobserved sector‐specific inbuilt features. The comparison of wage reductions, which a representative employee will be prepared to endure in order to avoid employment in the private sector, reveals that the regularity of working schedules is appreciated more than any other facet of JS. The obtained results enhance the existing apparatus for evaluating government policies in the labour market.     

Union–Firm Bargaining,Productivity Improvement and Endogenous Growth

This paper presents a growth model with two sectors. In the high‐tech sector, R&D increases productivity and union–firm bargaining determines wages, but in the traditional sector there are neither R&D nor labour unions. The government is able to regulate union bargaining power. The main results are as follows. Because firms try to escape wage increases through the improvement of productivity by R&D, the increase in union bargaining power boosts R&D and growth. It is welfare enhancing to strengthen (weaken) unions when the growth rate is below (above) some critical level. A specific rule is presented for when de‐unionization is socially desirable.