基于QFD的项目组合配置战略贴近度优化研究

论文以QFD为理论出发点,在定义协同度函数和适配率等概念的基础上,对项目组合配置中项目与项目、项目与战略贴近度评价指标、战略贴近度评价指标之间的协同关系进行了定量分析,提出了用战略贴近度度量配置方案与企业战略吻合程度的分析方法,构建了战略导向的项目组合配置优化模型,并通过企业实践,对模型的有效性进行了验证.     

The Path‐Dependent Nature of R&D Search: Implications for (and from) Competition

We formalize R&D as a search process for technology improvements across different technological domains. Technology improvements from a specific domain draw upon a common knowledge base, and as such they share technological content. Moreover, different domains may rely on similar scientific principles, and therefore, knowledge about the technology improvements by one domain might be transferable to another. We analyze how such a technological relatedness shapes the direction of R&D search when knowledge generated from past search efforts disseminates to rival firms. We show that firms optimally diversify their search efforts, even toward domains that are riskier and less promising on expectation. This is amplified for higher competition intensity, i.e., higher cross‐product substitutability. Our work also suggests that different sources of learning about the domains may have opposite effects on the direction of search. Higher ability to infer the potential of an explored domain prompts the clustering of searches, whereas the ability to learn across domains prompts diversification. Finally, we discuss the technological landscape properties that prompt firms to engage in a sequential R&D search, instead of a parallel competitive search.     

国际工程承包市场竞争的博弈模型

本文对国际工程承包的市场竞争进行了实证分析并指出其基本特征,在此基础之上建立了国际工程承包的市场竞争模型。并给出了该模型的一个均衡解,最后对均衡解进行了解释并指出该模型带来的深刻影响。     

合作研发中机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

合作研发的企业分为两种类型:互惠主义者和机会主义者,并运用演化博弈理论对企业间合作研发过程中的机会主义行为进行演化分析.分析表明:若企业能够彼此识别,则机会主义行为将灭绝;若企业不能彼此识别,机会主义行为将泛滥市场.同时还研究了监督机制对防范机会主义行为的有效性.     

资源约束下可打断项目组合选择模型研究

首先,本文在已有可打断项目组合选择模型的基础上,引入了消耗性资源和可更新资源约束,构建了一个更符合实际的新模型;其次,为了达到模型简化的目的,本文给出了资金约束的现值表示,并给出了理论证明;最后,利用GAMS对模型进行了算例分析。数值实验结果表明：1）资源约束下的项目打断有时可以给企业带来积极效益,这有别于已有的研究;2）在考虑资源约束的情况下,资源消耗少且同时收益高的项目应优先执行;3）当资源的供给量较少时,资源约束是决定项目选择的关键因素。此外,通过企业实际的案例对数值实验结果进行了验证。     

基于实物期权的研发项目动态投资决策模型

本文基于实物期权理论,针对研发项目阶段性特点,结合博弈论的思想,分析了多个研发项目组成的投资状态组合,构建了研发项目动态选择模型。首先,根据研发项目多阶段的特征,利用孪生证券的思想,基于实物期权理论,建立了项目中止决策准则;在此基础上分析研发项目的投资决策状态,建立了二十五个状态的切换场景;然后通过实际算例对模型进行验证和分析,得出了研发项目投资的影响范围概念图,最终实现两个项目的最优投资决策目标。     

Task Design,Team Context,and Psychological Safety: An Empirical Analysis of R&D Projects in High Technology Organizations

High technology organizations need to develop new products or processes that address the dual goals of exploration and exploitation. The competing viewpoints and the asymmetric nature of market returns associated with these goals in R&D projects can heighten stress levels among project team members and reduce their psychological safety. While current research calls for greater focus on task design for improving psychological safety, we know little about how team contextual factors affect this relationship. This study develops and tests a conceptual framework that examines the moderating role of R&D team contextual factors, namely, relative exploration and project‐organization metric alignment on the relationship between a key task design variable, namely, team autonomy, and psychological safety. Relative exploration captures the extent to which exploration goals are emphasized over exploitation goals in an R&D project, while project‐organization metric alignment measures the extent to which project metrics are aligned with broader organizational metrics. Furthermore, we examine the performance consequences of psychological safety in R&D projects. The empirical analysis is conducted using primary data collected from multiple informants across 110 R&D projects in 34 high technology business units. Our results indicate that relative exploration and project‐organization metric alignment have contrasting moderating effects. Furthermore, the effect of psychological safety on project performance is found to be indirect and mediated through team turnover. Implications of the study findings, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Managing the Performance Trade‐Offs from Partner Integration: Implications of Contract Choice in R&D Projects

Formal contracts represent an important governance instrument with which firms exercise control of and compensate partners in R&D projects. The specific type of contract used, however, can vary significantly across projects. In some, firms' govern partnering relationships through fixed‐price contracts, whereas in others, firms' use more flexible time and materials or performance‐based contracts. How do these choices affect the costs and benefits that arise from greater levels of partner integration? Furthermore, how are these relationships affected when the choice of contract is misaligned with the scope and objectives of the partnering relationship? Our study addresses these questions using data from 172 R&D projects that involve partners. We find that, (i) greater partner integration is associated with higher project costs for all contract types; (ii) greater partner integration is associated with higher product quality only in projects that adopt more flexible time and materials or performance‐based contracts; and (iii) in projects where the choice of contract is misaligned with the scope and objectives of the partnering relationship, greater partner integration is associated with higher project costs, but not with higher product quality. Our results shed light on the subtle interplay between formal and relational contracting. They have important implications for practice, with respect to designing optimal governance structures in partnered R&D projects.     

Entry Deterrence of Capacitated Competition Using Price and Non‐Price Strategies

We analyze the role of pricing and branding in an incumbent firm's decision when facing competition from an entrant firm with limited capacity. We do so by studying two price competition models (Stackelberg and Nash), where we consider the incumbent's entry‐deterrence pricing strategy based on a potential entrant's capacity size. In an extension, we also study a branding model, where the incumbent firm, in addition to pricing, can also invest in influencing market preference for its product. With these models, we study conditions under which the incumbent firm may block the entrant (i.e., prevent entry without any market actions), deter the entrant (i.e., stop entry with suitable market actions) or accommodate the entrant (i.e., allow entry and compete), and how the entrant will allocate its limited capacity across its own and the new market, if entry occurs. We also study the timing difference between the two different dynamics of the price competition models and find that the incumbent's first‐mover advantage benefits both the incumbent and the entrant. Interestingly, the entrant firm's profits are not monotonically increasing in its capacity even when it is costless to build capacity. In the branding model, we show that in some cases, the incumbent may even increase its price and successfully deter entry by investing in consumer's preference for its product. Finally, we incorporate demand uncertainty into our model and show that the incumbent benefits from demand uncertainty while the entrant may be worse off depending on the magnitude of demand uncertainty and its capacity.     

10‐year Anniversary of the New Product Development,R&D,and Project Management Department in Production and Operations Management—Progress,Thoughts, and Perspectives

The issue you are about to browse offers an opportunity to share many thanks, some observations, and a few forward‐looking thoughts about the department I have had the honor to edit over the last 4 years. It also offers an opportunity to expand the discussion beyond the boundaries of the particular department of Production and Operations Management (POM), and to take stock of the evolution path of the academic community that has formed around the department and its research topics over the past 10 years.     

The Effect of Competition on Recovery Strategies

Manufacturers often face a choice of whether to recover the value in their end‐of‐life products through remanufacturing. In many cases, firms choose not to remanufacture, as they are (rightly) concerned that the remanufactured product will cannibalize sales of the higher‐margin new product. However, such a strategy may backfire for manufacturers operating in industries where their end‐of‐life products (cell phones, tires, computers, automotive parts, etc.) are attractive to third‐party remanufacturers, who may seriously cannibalize sales of the original manufacturer. In this paper, we develop models to support a manufacturer's recovery strategy in the face of a competitive threat on the remanufactured product market. We first analyze the competition between new and remanufactured products produced by a monopolist manufacturer and identify conditions under which the firm would choose not to remanufacture its products. We then characterize the potential profit loss due to external remanufacturing competition and analyze two entry‐deterrent strategies: remanufacturing and preemptive collection. We find that a firm may choose to remanufacture or preemptively collect its used products to deter entry, even when the firm would not have chosen to do so under a pure monopoly environment. Finally, we discuss conditions under which each strategy is more beneficial.     

大型建筑工程项目资源配置模型及策略研究——基于系统动力学的建模和仿真

大型建筑工程项目多类型资源的有效配置,是现阶段项目管理理论与工程管理实践面临的关键问题,特别是在考虑工艺顺序和间歇时间的工作可操作性特点,以及多资源之间反馈影响的情况下。通过整合挣值法和系统动力学理论,在分析资源可用性和工作可操作性之间因果关系的基础上,本文构建了大型建筑工程项目多资源配置的系统动力学模型。以上海市重大工程投资统计数据作为模型参数依据,模型的仿真结果表明:建筑工程项目不同类型资源其配置重要性与系统影响性存在显著差异,在制定资源配置策略时应同时考虑项目运作方式的特征与多资源之间的匹配,资源不匹配则容易导致资源配置系统失去稳态或策略失效。这为进一步研究项目管理中多资源配置提供了理论参考和实践支持。     

基于支持向量机的R&D项目过程质量度量

过程质量度量是项目质量控制中的基础。本文针对R＆D项目的质量特性,构建了R＆D项目过程质量状况的评价指标体系,将支持向量机(SVM)技术应用于R＆D项目过程质量度量。实证研究结果表明该方法可很好地应用于R＆D项目的过程质量管理。     

Modeling Arbitrary Layers of Continuous‐Level Defenses in Facing with Strategic Attackers

We propose a novel class of game‐theoretic models for the optimal assignment of defensive resources in a game between a defender and an attacker. Compared to the other game‐theoretic models in the literature of defense allocation problems, the novelty of our model is that we allow the defender to assign her continuous‐level defensive resources to any subset (or arbitrary layers) of targets due to functional similarity or geographical proximity. We develop methods to solve for equilibrium, and illustrate our model using numerical examples. Compared to traditional models that only allow for individual target hardening, our results show that our model could significantly increase the defender's payoff, especially when the unit cost of defense is high.     

新能源汽车分时租赁市场竞争的进化博弈模型研究

针对"互联网+分时租赁"市场竞争存在有限理性,且不断模仿、学习和改进的特点,本文通过构建进化博弈模型,来揭示租车软件进出市场、抢占市场的博弈过程,并结合当前打车软件市场采用最多的价格战对模型进行了具体化分析和算例验证。研究表明：一个初期稳定的分时租赁市场受到某一公司价格战策略的突变冲击后,不存在纯策略的进化稳定状态,但一定有混合策略的进化稳定状态;对于准备进入市场的公司或想扩大市场份额公司,其最优策略是选用价格战;而对于已经在该市场内运营的公司,其最优反应策略也是降价。     

多零售商供应链应对突发事件的协调机制研究

本文针对一个供应商和n个Cournot竞争零售商组成的供应链系统,从系统优化和企业管理的角度研究了该供应链系统如何应对突发事件。首先证明稳定条件下的收益共享合约能实现该供应链协调。但突发事件引起的成本和需求的扰动会打破供应链协调,当突发事件导致供应链的市场需求增加而生产成本减少时,供应商必须通过增加生产来应对突发事件;当突发事件导致供应链的市场需求减少而生产成本增加时,供应商必须通过减少生产来应对突发事件;并通过求解突发事件下供应链系统最优利润的Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件,提出了供应链在一体化时应对突发事件的最优策略。进一步证明了改进的收益共享合约可以协调突发事件下分散化决策的供应链系统。最后运用数值实验对模型进行了验证。     

基于突变的项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤研究

对于以项目方式进行管理或生产的企业来说,共享资源在多项目、特别是项目组合(project portfolio,PP)中的合理配置是企业运营所需要解决的重要问题,对企业实现可持续发展起着关键的支撑作用。本文将突变理论引入项目组合管理问题中,在类比交通系统中车辆对交通资源竞争的基础上,提出了项目组合系统共享资源竞争拥挤概念,并对其基础变量进行了详细分析;其次,本文分析了项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤势函数和竞争稳定性,构建了以系统效率最大化为决策目标的项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤模型;最后,通过HD集团的案例分析对项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤模型的可实践性进行了验证,并以此为基础,针对项目组合管理提出了共享资源的改进管理方案。     

Efficient Allocation of Resources for Defense of Spatially Distributed Networks Using Agent‐Based Simulation

This article presents ongoing research that focuses on efficient allocation of defense resources to minimize the damage inflicted on a spatially distributed physical network such as a pipeline, water system, or power distribution system from an attack by an active adversary, recognizing the fundamental difference between preparing for natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or even accidental systems failures and the problem of allocating resources to defend against an opponent who is aware of, and anticipating, the defender's efforts to mitigate the threat. Our approach is to utilize a combination of integer programming and agent‐based modeling to allocate the defensive resources. We conceptualize the problem as a Stackelberg “leader follower” game where the defender first places his assets to defend key areas of the network, and the attacker then seeks to inflict the maximum damage possible within the constraints of resources and network structure. The criticality of arcs in the network is estimated by a deterministic network interdiction formulation, which then informs an evolutionary agent‐based simulation. The evolutionary agent‐based simulation is used to determine the allocation of resources for attackers and defenders that results in evolutionary stable strategies, where actions by either side alone cannot increase its share of victories. We demonstrate these techniques on an example network, comparing the evolutionary agent‐based results to a more traditional, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach. Our results show that the agent‐based approach results in a greater percentage of defender victories than does the PRA‐based approach.     

Next to Production or to Technological Clusters? The Economics and Management of R&D Location

This paper examines the relationshipbetween the location of R&D and productionactivities. By using a sample of 799 Japaneseinvestments in Europe, it distinguishes betweenaffiliates performing only R&D, bothR&D and production, and productiononly. The analysis produces two main results.First, R&D tends to locate close to productionactivities. Interestingly, however, the higherthe science-intensity of a sector, the lessimportant is the linkage with production. Thisis interpreted as the effect produced by moregeneral and transferable scientific work,compared to applied work. Second, by performinga multinomial logit analysis, we show that R&Dactivities, independent or linked toproduction, are attracted by different localfactors. Specifically, geographical proximityto the local science base is an importantfactor for locating only R&Dlaboratories compared to R&D andproduction, and production only. Firmand sector-specific characteristics also affectthe probability of setting up an independentR&D affiliate.     

效用函数意义下投资组合有效选择问题的研究

我们知道,每个投资者在进行投资过程中,都有自己对收益与风险的偏好程度,即投资活动要遵循一个关于收益与风险的效用函数。按照古典经济学的分析,这个效用函数称为无差异曲线 (IDC),它是用均值 -方差来表现风险 -回报率相互替换的大小和形式的。每个投资者都拥有一条无差异曲线来表示他对于预期回报率和标准差的偏好。那么投资者如何确定他的一条无差异曲线,使他的最佳资产组合位于这条无差异曲线上 ?本文运用自己独创的一种几何方法解决了这个难题。本文首先把Markowitz模型的有效前沿用投资组合的权重向量表示出来,然后将无差异曲线也用抽资组合的权重向量表示出来,再由资产组合的有效选择原则就求出这个无差异曲线了。