A Theory of Optimal Inheritance Taxation

This paper derives optimal inheritance tax formulas that capture the key equity‐efficiency trade‐off, are expressed in terms of estimable sufficient statistics, and are robust to the underlying structure of preferences. We consider dynamic stochastic models with general and heterogeneous bequest tastes and labor productivities. We limit ourselves to simple but realistic linear or two‐bracket tax structures to obtain tractable formulas. We show that long‐run optimal inheritance tax rates can always be expressed in terms of aggregate earnings and bequest elasticities with respect to tax rates, distributional parameters, and social preferences for redistribution. Those results carry over with tractable modifications to (a) the case with social discounting (instead of steady‐state welfare maximization), (b) the case with partly accidental bequests, (c) the standard Barro–Becker dynastic model. The optimal tax rate is positive and quantitatively large if the elasticity of bequests to the tax rate is low, bequest concentration is high, and society cares mostly about those receiving little inheritance. We propose a calibration using micro‐data for France and the United States. We find that, for realistic parameters, the optimal inheritance tax rate might be as large as 50%–60%—or even higher for top bequests, in line with historical experience.     

基于网络外部性的商品税与产品差异化分析

利用纵向产品差异模型,研究了在具有网络外部性特征的双寡头市场结构的产业中,产品税收和网络外部性对产品纵向差异化的影响.考虑政府对所有产品实行统一税率的情形,政府首先制定税率;然后,企业选择其产品质量;最后,企业进行价格竞争.研究结果表明,网络外部性和税收将使企业产品质量差异偏离社会最优质量差异,小量税收将提高社会福利,并随网络外部性的增强而增加.     

ECONOMICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT IN A MULTI‐REGION WORLD

This paper develops a model that integrates the climate and the global economy—an integrated assessment model—with which different policy scenarios can be analyzed and compared. The model is a dynamic stochastic general‐equilibrium setup with a continuum of regions. Thus, it is a full stochastic general‐equilibrium version of RICE, Nordhaus’s pioneering multi‐region integrated assessment model. Like RICE, our model features traded fossil fuel but otherwise has no markets across regions—there is no insurance nor any intertemporal trade across them. The extreme form of market incompleteness is not fully realistic but arguably not a bad approximation of reality. Its major advantage is that, along with a set of reasonable assumptions on preferences, technology, and nature, it allows a closed‐form model solution. We use the model to assess the welfare consequences of carbon taxes that differ across as well as within oil‐consuming and ‐producing regions. We show that, surprisingly, only taxes on oil producers can improve the climate: taxes on oil consumers have no effect at all. The calibrated model suggests large differences in views on climate policy across regions.     

Management of Energy Technology for Sustainability: How to Fund Energy Technology Research and Development

Operations management methods have been applied profitably to a wide range of technology portfolio management problems, but have been slow to be adopted by governments and policy makers. We develop a framework that allows us to apply such techniques to a large and important public policy problem: energy technology R&D portfolio management under climate change. We apply a multi‐model approach, implementing probabilistic data derived from expert elicitations into a novel stochastic programming version of a dynamic integrated assessment model. We note that while the unifying framework we present can be applied to a range of models and data sets, the specific results depend on the data and assumptions used and therefore may not be generalizable. Nevertheless, the results are suggestive, and we find that the optimal technology portfolio for the set of projects considered is fairly robust to different specifications of climate uncertainty, to different policy environments, and to assumptions about the opportunity cost of investing. We also conclude that policy makers would do better to over‐invest in R&D rather than under‐invest. Finally, we show that R&D can play different roles in different types of policy environments, sometimes leading primarily to cost reduction, other times leading to better environmental outcomes.     

西部地区电能与环境协调发展系统中政府规制偏好研究

电力产业作为重要的能源部门之一,对整个国民经济发展起到巨大的基础性支撑作用,但其中的火力发电行业所造成的环境污染也给社会带来一系列问题,我国西部地区也不例外。通过将污染物减排过程对经济产生的正的外部性考虑进电能与环境发展系统,并对政府进行理性人的假设,设计电能与环境协调发展系统中的政府规制效用函数,运用计量经济学方法和微观经济学中理性人效用最大化的条件,对我国西部地区1995~2005年电能与环境协调发展系统中的政府规制偏好进行了定量分析。发现在环境法规逐渐完善的基础上,政府对于电能生产的偏好有所下降,对污染物减排的偏好逐渐上升。     

Up or Out—or Stay Put? Product Positioning in an Evolving Technology Environment

When the development cycle for a product is longer than the development cycle for a core technology that is embedded in it, designers may need to modify the product̂s design to avail of upgrades in this core technology. We model optimal product positioning with regard to technology choice in this setting, using a stochastic dynamic programming framework. Under fairly general assumptions, we find that there are three possible optimal actions: to abandon the project, to maintain the current technology, or to reposition so as to use the best technology currently available. We characterize the optimal positioning sequence in different design environments, discussing throughout the practical implications of our model. Previous research and conventional wisdom suggest early finalization of product specifications if design flexibility is decreasing over time. In contrast, we find that in some design environments, repositioning late in the development cycle can be optimal.     

开放经济中跨国公司的最优所得税模型

通过对不同避免双重征税方法下最优所得税模型的建立,解析了政府最优政策的收入函数,得到税收竞争均衡中的公司所得课税政策.对小型开放经济而言,在扣除法和抵免法,以及免税法与抵免法的不对称体系下,对跨国公司从源征收公司所得税都是最优选择.由此,得到不同于国际税收经典理论的结论.     

A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities

We propose a theory of monetary policy and macroprudential interventions in financial markets. We focus on economies with nominal rigidities in goods and labor markets and subject to constraints on monetary policy, such as the zero lower bound or fixed exchange rates. We identify an aggregate demand externality that can be corrected by macroprudential interventions in financial markets. Ex post, the distribution of wealth across agents affects aggregate demand and output. Ex ante, however, these effects are not internalized in private financial decisions. We provide a simple formula for the required financial interventions that depends on a small number of measurable sufficient statistics. We also characterize optimal monetary policy. We extend our framework to incorporate pecuniary externalities, providing a unified approach to both externalities. Finally, we provide a number of applications which illustrate the relevance of our theory.     

Zero Expected Wealth Taxes: A Mirrlees Approach to Dynamic Optimal Taxation

In this paper, I consider a dynamic economy in which a government needs to finance a stochastic process of purchases. The agents in the economy are privately informed about their skills, which evolve stochastically over time; I impose no restriction on the stochastic evolution of skills. I construct a tax system that implements a symmetric constrained Pareto optimal allocation. The tax system is constrained to be linear in an agent's wealth, but can be arbitrarily nonlinear in his current and past labor incomes. I find that wealth taxes in a given period depend on the individual's labor income in that period and previous ones. However, in any period, the expectation of an agent's wealth tax rate in the following period is zero. As well, the government never collects any net revenue from wealth taxes.     

The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment

Traditional models of capital budgeting with taxes are based on deterministic tax rates and tax bases. In reality, however, there are multiple sources of tax uncertainty. Frequent tax reforms make future taxation of investments a stochastic process. Fiscal authorities and tax courts create additional tax uncertainty by interpreting current tax laws differently. Moreover, simplified models that anticipate the actual tax base incorrectly contribute to tax uncertainty as perceived by investors. I analyze the effects of stochastic taxation on investment behavior in a real options model. The investor holds an option to invest in an irreversible project with stochastic cash flows and stochastic tax payments. Pre-tax cash flows and tax payments are assumed to be correlated. Increased tax uncertainty has an ambiguous impact on investment timing. For low tax uncertainty, high cash flow uncertainty and high correlation of cash flows and tax payments, increased tax uncertainty is likely to accelerate investment. A higher expected tax payment delays investment. A higher after-tax discount rate affects investment timing ambiguously.     

不确定条件下公司负债的利息抵税效应分析

在不确定条件下,以公司息前税前收益服从均匀分布为假设,基于静态权衡理论,不考虑除利息抵税效应以及破产成本之外的其他因素对融资决策的影响,我们建立了负债抵税价值期望值模型和破产成本期望值模型,然后在统一的负债区间内分析负债的利息抵税净收益,以确定存在利息抵税净效应最高时的最优负债数额和最优资本结构。     

Dual Sourcing Inventory Systems: On Optimal Policies and the Value of Costless Returns

We study dual sourcing inventory systems with backordering and with stationary, stochastic demands. The two supply sources differ in their unit prices and lead times. We focus on the option of making costless returns to the cheaper, longer leadtime supplier. We show that the value of this option is zero. Our analysis leading to this result includes the derivation of several structural properties of the optimal policies for dual sourcing systems with and without the return option.     

基于碳排放的废弃产品回收站点分布研究

基于碳税价格对废弃产品回收运营决策的影响考虑,本文从整个社会的视角,把顾客、回收站点、回收总站作为一个整体进行考虑,并分析碳税价格对回收站点数量和成本的影响。首先,将顾客、回收站点和回收处理中心作为整体,考虑能源成本、运营成本和碳排放费用,建立废弃产品回收站点分布的社会总成本模型。接着,对碳税价格为零和碳税价格无穷大两种极端情况,分析了回收站点的数量、碳税价格、社会总成本等因素之间的关系。最后对模型进行数值计算。结果表明：当前碳税价格下,同时考虑碳税成本和运营费用或仅考虑运营费用这两种情况计算出来的回收站点数量相等,单位总成本区别不显著,即碳税价格对运营影响不大;若仅考虑碳税成本,则回收站点数量变化较大,即合理的碳税价格对运营影响显著;碳税价格理想的定价应该在40.03至66.46之间;回收站点数量为66时,碳排放量最优。     

燃油税、融资约束与企业行为——基于DSGE模型的分析

征收燃油税在实现节能减排的同时也会增加企业的财务负担。如何在保护环境的同时减少对经济的冲击,有赖于对燃油税的科学评估。本文构建了一个包含燃油税和融资约束的随机动态一般均衡模型,并基于1995年第1季度至2018年第2季度的数据对相关参数进行了校准和估计,系统考察了融资约束下征收燃油税对环境经济以及企业行为的影响。研究结果发现：征收燃油税对促进节能减排有显著效果;但同时也会抑制消费、投资和产出,增加失业,对经济产生负影响。此外,融资约束会通过金融加速器的作用放大燃油税冲击的影响。而且,当融资约束越强时,降低燃油税对经济的刺激作用也越明显。     

碳税政策下制造商竞争的供应链定价策略和社会福利研究

本文在考虑消费者环境意识下，探讨了制造商竞争情形下基于碳税政策的供应链成员定价策略和社会福利问题。研究表明，碳税政策的实施均会使得普通产品和低碳产品的批发价格和零售价格上升，且普通产品的价格变化总是较低碳产品更加明显；实施碳税政策前后，清洁型制造商面临的产品需求和利润变化总是较普通制造商更具有相对优势；制造商竞争有利于碳税政策引导制造商降低单位产品的碳排放量，实现绿色转型；碳税政策下，不论是清洁型制造商还是普通制造商，他们降低自身产品的单位碳排放量对提升自身产品在需求上的优势或减少自身产品在需求上的劣势都是有益的。当制造商之间的竞争性较小时，实施最优的碳税政策可以显著改善社会福利；特别是当消费者环境意识水平较低时，实施最优的碳税政策更为必要。当制造商之间的竞争强度较大时，不论消费者环境意识高低，直观税率值1可以作为一个近似最优的碳税政策，用以改善社会福利。     

Looking Upstream: Optimal Policies for a Class of Capacitated Multi‐Stage Inventory Systems

We consider a multi‐stage inventory system with stochastic demand and processing capacity constraints at each stage, for both finite‐horizon and infinite‐horizon, discounted‐cost settings. For a class of such systems characterized by having the smallest capacity at the most downstream stage and system utilization above a certain threshold, we identify the structure of the optimal policy, which represents a novel variation of the order‐up‐to policy. We find the explicit functional form of the optimal order‐up‐to levels, and show that they depend (only) on upstream echelon inventories. We establish that, above the threshold utilization, this optimal policy achieves the decomposition of the multidimensional objective cost function for the system into a sum of single‐dimensional convex functions. This decomposition eliminates the curse of dimensionality and allows us to numerically solve the problem. We provide a fast algorithm to determine a (tight) upper bound on this threshold utilization for capacity‐constrained inventory problems with an arbitrary number of stages. We make use of this algorithm to quantify upper bounds on the threshold utilization for three‐, four‐, and five‐stage capacitated systems over a range of model parameters, and discuss insights that emerge.     

Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources,Perceived Risks,and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power

We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO₂ emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices.     

INFLATION STABILIZATION AND WELFARE: THE CASE OF A DISTORTED STEADY STATE

This paper considers the appropriate stabilization objectives for monetary policy in a micro‐founded model with staggered price‐setting. Rotemberg and Woodford (1997) and Woodford (2002) have shown that under certain conditions, a local approximation to the expected utility of the representative household in a model of this kind is related inversely to the expected discounted value of a conventional quadratic loss function, in which each period's loss is a weighted average of squared deviations of inflation and an output gap measure from their optimal values (zero). However, those derivations rely on an assumption of the existence of an output or employment subsidy that offsets the distortion due to the market power of monopolistically competitive price‐setters, so that the steady state under a zero‐inflation policy involves an efficient level of output. Here we show how to dispense with this unappealing assumption, so that a valid linear‐quadratic approximation to the optimal policy problem is possible even when the steady state is distorted to an arbitrary extent (allowing for tax distortions as well as market power), and when, as a consequence, it is necessary to take account of the effects of stabilization policy on the average level of output. We again obtain a welfare‐theoretic loss function that involves both inflation and an appropriately defined output gap, though the degree of distortion of the steady state affects both the weights on the two stabilization objectives and the definition of the welfare‐relevant output gap. In the light of these results, we reconsider the conditions under which complete price stability is optimal, and find that they are more restrictive in the case of a distorted steady state. We also consider the conditions under which pure randomization of monetary policy can be welfare‐improving, and find that this is possible in the case of a sufficiently distorted steady state, though the parameter values required are probably not empirically realistic. (JEL: D61, E52, E61)     

税率不确定性下的减记型二级资本债设计及银行最优债务结构

考虑了税率不确定下减记型二级资本债（减记债）设计和银行最优债务结构问题。假设银行的融资方式为股权,普通债和减记债,在税率不确定环境下,利用动态规划方法,解析地得到了银行证券的价值和银行最优债务结构。分析了税率不确定性对银行融资决策的影响。结论表明：普通债的最优券息是减记比例的凸函数,随着减税而减少,随着减税时间点的增加而增加。减记债最优券息随着减记比例先增后减,受减税和减税时间点的影响是不确定的。此外,银行总价值和最优杠杆率随着减记比例先增后减。本文也为我国"营改增"政策的可行性提供了理论依据。同时,从银行总价值最大化和税率效应角度为金融决策者如何灵活地选择适当的减记比例提供了理论参考。     

Compliance Strategies under Permits for Emissions

We characterize the trade‐offs among firms' compliance strategies in a market‐based program where a regulator interested in controlling emissions from a given set of sources auctions off a fixed number of emissions permits. We model a three‐stage game in which firms invest in emissions abatement, participate in a share auction for permits, and produce output. We develop a methodology for a profit‐maximizing firm to derive its marginal value function for permits and translate this value function into an optimal bidding strategy in the auction. We analyze two end‐product market scenarios independent demands and Cournot competition. In both scenarios we find that changing the number of available permits influences abatement to a lesser extent in a dirty industry than in a cleaner one. In addition, abatement levels taper off with increasing industry dirtiness levels. In the presence of competition, firms in a relatively clean industry can, in fact, benefit from a reduction in the number of available permits. Our findings are robust to changes in certain modeling assumptions.