A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model

Making R&D portfolio decision is difficult, because long lead times of R&D and market and technology dynamics lead to unavailable and unreliable collected data for portfolio management. The objective of this research is to develop a fuzzy R&D portfolio selection model to hedge against the R&D uncertainty. Fuzzy set theory is applied to model uncertain and flexible project information. Since traditional project valuation methods often underestimate the risky project, a fuzzy compound-options model is used to evaluate the value of each R&D project. The R&D portfolio selection problem is formulated as a fuzzy zero–one integer programming model that can handle both uncertain and flexible parameters to determine the optimal project portfolio. A new transformation method based on qualitative possibility theory is developed to convert the fuzzy portfolio selection model into a crisp mathematical model from the risk-averse perspective. The transformed model can be solved by an optimization technique. An example is used to illustrate the proposed approach. We conclude that the proposed approach can assist decision makers in selecting suitable R&D portfolios, while there is a lack of reliable project information.     

Institutions and the Diversity and Prevalence of Multinationals’ Knowledge‐Augmenting Subsidiaries

Multinational corporations (MNCs) increasingly seek to gain access to, and exploit, locationally specific sources of advanced knowledge and technological capabilities, creating a need to explain (1) the diversity among these facilities and (2) how institutions influence MNCs’ abilities to invest in different subsidiary types. Extending debates on firms’ knowledge‐augmenting activities, the authors integrate institutions into their analytical framework to a greater extent than previous work has done. Moreover, existing contributions provide typologies of R&D subsidiaries. In contrast, the authors focus on a particular subset of subsidiaries, knowledge‐augmenting ones, and put forward a theory to explain their variety and their prevalence, enabling them to identify previously neglected subsidiary types that have important managerial and policy implications. By downplaying the diversity of these subsidiaries, existing work has not been able to capture the full range of managerial challenges as well as the costs and benefits of different subsidiary types to host countries. The authors, therefore, problematize firms’ abilities to gain access to foreign knowledge‐generating assets, highlight the importance of institutional environments, provide policy recommendations and identify areas for future research.     

Finding and Implementing Energy Efficiency Projects in Industrial Facilities

This study addresses the challenges of finding and implementing profitable energy efficiency (EE) projects, a critical foundation for sustainable operations. We focus on manufacturing enterprises, but many of our findings apply also to the back office of service operations. Our starting point is that, in nearly every industrial enterprise, there are many profitable EE projects that could be implemented but are not. An oft‐cited hindrance to implementation is the lack of an internal management framework in which to find, value, and execute these projects. Using a conceptual approach, we rely on proven sustainable operations tools to develop such a framework. We identify three major value drivers of EE projects: savings intensity, “green” image, and project complexity. We then describe a framework for understanding the context of EE projects in industry, with an underlying analytic foundation in optimal portfolio analysis. A case study of a large manufacturing site is used to illustrate emerging best practices—based on Kaizen management principles—for integrating EE project management with operations, engineering, and strategy.     

Casting a Wide Net for Innovation: Mediating Effect of R&D Human and Social Capital to Unlock the Value from Alliance Portfolio Diversity

This paper examines the performance effects associated with different alliance portfolio configurations in terms of geographical location and partner type. Based on these distinctions, the authors hypothesize that more diverse alliance portfolios enable firms to gain and exploit innovation opportunities. Additionally, the mediating effects of R&D human and social capital on the R&D alliance portfolio diversity–innovation performance relationship are explored. The authors reason that the absorptive capacity of R&D intellectual capital determines a firm's potential gains from highly diverse alliance portfolios. From panel data of manufacturing firms in Spain for the period 2008–2013, the results confirm the inverted U‐shaped relationship between alliance portfolio diversity and firm innovation performance, implying that both insufficient and excessive alliance portfolio diversity may be detrimental to firm innovativeness. Additionally, R&D human and social capital partially mediates the R&D alliance diversity–innovation performance relationship, emphasizing the importance of internal capabilities to leverage the benefits of highly diverse alliance portfolios. These findings add a dynamic dimension to the conceptualization of alliance portfolios and how firms create value by balancing explorative and exploitative alliances.     

Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers

We demonstrate to decision makers how to optimally make costly strategic pre-investment R&D decisions in the presence of spillover effects in an option pricing framework with analytic tractability. Decisions are modeled as impulse-type controls with random outcome. Two firms face two decisions that are solved interdependently in a two-stage game. The first-stage decision is: What is the optimal level of coordination (optimal policy/technology choice)? The second-stage decision is: What is the optimal effort for a given level of the spillover effects and the cost of information acquisition? The framework is extended to a two-period closed-loop stochastic game with (path-dependency inducing) switching costs that make strategy revisions harder. When conditions of learning-by-doing exist, we find that strategy shifts are easier to observe in market environments of high growth and high volatility.     

Application of the Fuzzy Weighted Average in Strategic Portfolio Management*

We propose a systematic approach that incorporates fuzzy set theory in conjunction with portfolio matrices to assist managers in reaching a better understanding of the overall competitiveness of their business portfolios. Integer linear programming is also accommodated in the proposed integrated approach to help select strategic plans by using the results derived from the previous portfolio analysis and other financial data. The proposed integrated approach is designed from a strategy‐oriented perspective for portfolio management at the corporate level. It has the advantage of dealing with the uncertainty problem of decision makers in doing evaluation, providing a technique that presents the diversity of confidence and optimism levels of decision makers. Furthermore, integer linear programming is used because it offers an effective quantitative method for managers to allocate constrained resources optimally among proposed strategies. An illustration from a real‐world situation demonstrates the integrated approach. Although a particular portfolio matrix model has been adopted in our research, the procedure proposed here can be modified to incorporate other portfolio matrices.     

创新网络嵌入视角下企业研发竞争的博弈研究

研发投入是创新发展的基础和源泉,如何促进企业研发投入是实施创新驱动战略的关键。本文基于创新网络嵌入的背景,构建同一创新网络内两个企业间的博弈模型,针对不同网络位置企业竞争博弈和相同网络位置企业竞争博弈两种情形,探究在研发竞争状态下企业研发投入受网络地位、网络关系的影响情况。研究结果表明:创新网络嵌入下,同质企业的竞争性研发投入与网络范围的技术溢出、网络平均吸收能力以及网络中心度均存在正向相关关系。研究结论丰富了企业研发投入影响因素的研究成果,也为有效激励企业创新提供一个有价值的思路。     

Patent portfolios for strategic R&D planning

Empirical research has found a discrepancy between the perceived importance and the actual level of information on competitor's R&D strategies. It has been argued in the literature that patent information might be used to overcome this information deficit. However, empirical research further reveals that patent information is rarely used in strategic R&D planning. The present paper explores this issue and introduces two types of patent portfolios for strategic R&D planning. In patent portfolios on the company level, patenting strategies are identified and the quality of overall technological positions is benchmarked against relevant competitors. In addition, we present a patent portfolio on the technological level, which, as it is known from various technology portfolios, helps companies to manage the allocation of R&D resources effectively. Based on patent data from 21 German, European and Japanese mechanical engineering companies we show the application of both patent portfolios for strategic R&D planning purposes. The patent portfolios prove to be a very valuable tool for R&D decision makers in companies. Based on the experiences made in the case study, recommendation for the effective use of patent portfolios are formulated.     

政府补贴、所有权性质与企业研发决策

本文将企业研发行为分为"是否研发"和"投入多少"两个阶段,就政府补贴对不同所有制企业研发决策的影响进行研究.理论方面,构建企业研发决策的两阶段模型,讨论了补贴对企业研发投资的作用机制.实证方面,以中国工业企业为对象,选择Heckman两步法和2SLS分别处理了样本选择性偏误及变量间的内生性问题,对来自国有、私营和外资企业的分类样本进行了检验,结果表明:在不同的所有权性质下,政府补贴对企业研发投资的作用存在一定差别,国有企业面对优惠政策的倾斜和需要担负的社会责任,从事技术创新活动的概率较高,但由于特殊的产权关系和预算软约束等原因,缺乏扩大研发投入的动力;对于治理机制完善的外资企业和处于市场竞争弱势地位的私营企业而言,政府补贴的研发激励效果更为明显.     

An Integrated Framework for Measuring Product Development Performance in High Technology Industries

We present an integrated framework for measuring product development performance. The framework consists of a three stage model for exploring the relationships between metrics used by design, manufacturing, marketing functions, and overall commercial success. Using a cross‐sectional survey of 383 product development professionals working on 38 product development projects in the high‐tech electronic assembled goods manufacturing sector, we provide empirical evidence of the proposed framework. The findings indicate that in the high‐tech manufacturing sector (1) commercial success of new product development projects is primarily determined by market share, (2) gain in market share is primarily driven by lower unit cost and not by technical performance, and (3) reduction in unit cost is primarily driven by the increased speed of new product development and not by the R&D budget. The study failed to identify any significant association between R&D budget and technical performance, and development speed and technical performance.     

基于项目网络支配和扩散关系的研发项目组合选择

项目组合包含多项目且项目间存在相互作用和依赖关系,针对传统项目组合评价方法忽略了各项目间依赖关系的不足,本文采用复杂网络理论和PageRank算法,提出一种新的项目优先级排序方法（PPRM）。首先,本文建立研发项目多属性评价准则,分析了项目间的支配关系以及技术和经验在项目间的扩散关系。然后,以项目为节点、以支配和扩散关系为边,分别构建了项目支配和扩散网络,进一步,采用设计结构矩阵（DSM）和K-shell方法建立了基于支配网络的项目影响力模型,并建立了考虑项目之间多次扩散传播的综合扩散概率模型。综合项目节点影响力和扩散关系,本文构建了基于PageRank算法的研发项目优先级排序模型。最后,以某研发项目组合选择为例,验证了本文所建立的模型和算法可有效分析项目组合中的排序问题。     

Risk–risk governance in a low-carbon future: Exploring institutional,technological, and behavioral tradeoffs in climate geoengineering pathways

Deliberations are underway to utilize increasingly radical technological options to help address climate change and stabilize the climatic system. Collectively, these options are often referred to as “climate geoengineering.” Deployment of such options, however, can create wicked tradeoffs in governance and require adaptive forms of risk management. In this study, we utilize a large and novel set of qualitative expert interview data to more deeply and systematically explore the types of risk–risk tradeoffs that may emerge from the use of 20 different climate geoengineering options, 10 that focus on carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas removal, and 10 that focus on solar radiation management and reflecting sunlight. We specifically consider: What risks does the deployment of these options entail? What types of tradeoffs may emerge through their deployment? We apply a framework that clusters risk–risk tradeoffs into institutional and governance, technological and environmental, and behavioral and temporal dimensions. In doing so, we offer a more complete inventory of risk–risk tradeoffs than those currently available within the respective risk-assessment, energy-systems, and climate-change literatures, and we also point the way toward future research gaps concerning policy, deployment, and risk management.     

Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry

The impact of R&D on growth through spillovers has been a major topic of economic research over the last thirty years. A central problem in the literature is that firm performance is affected by two countervailing “spillovers” : a positive effect from technology (knowledge) spillovers and a negative business stealing effects from product market rivals. We develop a general framework incorporating these two types of spillovers and implement this model using measures of a firm's position in technology space and productmarket space. Using panel data on U.S. firms, we show that technology spillovers quantitatively dominate, so that the gross social returns to R&D are at least twice as high as the private returns. We identify the causal effect of R&D spillovers by using changes in federal and state tax incentives for R&D. We also find that smaller firms generate lower social returns to R&D because they operate more in technological niches. Finally, we detail the desirable properties of an ideal spillover measure and how existing approaches, including our new Mahalanobis measure, compare to these criteria.     

Expanding the Reach of Participatory Risk Management: Testing an Online Decision‐Aiding Framework for Informing Internally Consistent Choices

This article presents research aimed at developing and testing an online, multistakeholder decision‐aiding framework for informing multiattribute risk management choices associated with energy development and climate change. The framework was designed to provide necessary background information and facilitate internally consistent choices, or choices that are in line with users’ prioritized objectives. In order to test different components of the decision‐aiding framework, a six‐part, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted, yielding eight treatment scenarios. The three factors included: (1) whether or not users could construct their own alternatives; (2) the level of detail regarding the composition of alternatives users would evaluate; and (3) the way in which a final choice between users’ own constructed (or highest‐ranked) portfolio and an internally consistent portfolio was presented. Participants’ self‐reports revealed the framework was easy to use and providing an opportunity to develop one's own risk‐management alternatives (Factor 1) led to the highest knowledge gains. Empirical measures showed the internal consistency of users’ decisions across all treatments to be lower than expected and confirmed that providing information about alternatives’ composition (Factor 2) resulted in the least internally consistent choices. At the same time, those users who did not develop their own alternatives and were not shown detailed information about the composition of alternatives believed their choices to be the most internally consistent. These results raise concerns about how the amount of information provided and the ability to construct alternatives may inversely affect users’ real and perceived internal consistency.     

A Portfolio Approach to Procurement Contracts

The purpose of this paper is to develop a general framework for supply contracts in which portfolios of contracts can be analyzed and optimized. We focus on a multi‐period environment with convex contract, spot market, and inventory holding costs. We specialize the model to the case of a portfolio consisting of option contracts. We characterize the optimal replenishment policy and show that it has a simple structure. Namely, the use of every different option contract and the spot market is dictated by a modified base‐stock policy. In addition, we derive conditions to determine when an option is relatively attractive compared to other options or the spot market. Finally, we present our computational study, where we report the sensitivity of the results to the parameters of the model. Our experiments indicate that portfolio contracts not only increase the manufacturer's expected profit, but can also reduce its financial risk.     

Is time consistency compatible with risk aversion?

Managerial decision models applied in operations research, finance, information management, and many other disciplines are typically both dynamic and stochastic. When decisions at different points in time are allowed, the question arises what conditions guarantee the absence of incentives to deviate from the ex ante optimal policy at later dates. We term such a policy time consistent. A well-known result states that additively separable objective functions ensure time consistency under risk neutrality. Unfortunately, this is no longer true when decision makers are risk averse. Then, (much) more restrictive assumptions are needed. The aim of this paper is to provide clear-cut conditions that ensure time consistency in an expected utility framework. Our main findings are twofold: on the one hand, constant absolute risk aversion can guarantee time consistency when final values are under consideration. On the other hand, time consistency and risk aversion are incompatible when intertemporal payments are aggregated by means of net present values.     

Task Design,Team Context,and Psychological Safety: An Empirical Analysis of R&D Projects in High Technology Organizations

High technology organizations need to develop new products or processes that address the dual goals of exploration and exploitation. The competing viewpoints and the asymmetric nature of market returns associated with these goals in R&D projects can heighten stress levels among project team members and reduce their psychological safety. While current research calls for greater focus on task design for improving psychological safety, we know little about how team contextual factors affect this relationship. This study develops and tests a conceptual framework that examines the moderating role of R&D team contextual factors, namely, relative exploration and project‐organization metric alignment on the relationship between a key task design variable, namely, team autonomy, and psychological safety. Relative exploration captures the extent to which exploration goals are emphasized over exploitation goals in an R&D project, while project‐organization metric alignment measures the extent to which project metrics are aligned with broader organizational metrics. Furthermore, we examine the performance consequences of psychological safety in R&D projects. The empirical analysis is conducted using primary data collected from multiple informants across 110 R&D projects in 34 high technology business units. Our results indicate that relative exploration and project‐organization metric alignment have contrasting moderating effects. Furthermore, the effect of psychological safety on project performance is found to be indirect and mediated through team turnover. Implications of the study findings, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Impeding the Juggernaut of Innovation Diffusion: A Production‐Constrained Model

Models of innovation diffusion typically depict an inexorable momentum once the process begins to roll. Limited production capacity, however, can place a cap on this process, leading to waiting lines of potential customers, thus diminishing overall service quality and the speed of diffusion. Identifying the minimum production capacity needed for unimpeded and unimpaired diffusion can ensure that there are no customers waiting to adopt the product. We propose a production‐capacity‐constrained diffusion model that considers an exogenous industry production capacity and accounts for word‐of‐mouth effects from adopters as well as waiting customers. We derive analytical expressions for minimum capacity needed under multiple production scenarios. We present a dual‐objective non‐linear least squares procedure with large‐scale grid search for estimating the parameters. We apply our model to several new product innovation data sets, ranging from vacuum cleaners to sports utility vehicles in the United States to iPhones globally. Our estimates show that product shortages exist, ranging from mild to severe, in all of these product markets. We are able to corroborate some of our findings with independent external sources of evidence. We find that information on industry capacity can be recovered with as few as 5 years of sales data. Our model has practical implications for policy makers and can help equity analysts triangulate industry capacity better, particularly when such information is closely held.     

THE DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE AGREEMENTS

This paper analyzes a framework in which countries over time pollute and invest in green technologies. Without a climate treaty, the countries pollute too much and invest too little, particularly if intellectual property rights are weak. Nevertheless, short‐term agreements on emission levels then reduce every country's payoff, since countries invest less when they anticipate future negotiations. If intellectual property rights are weak, the agreement should be tougher and more long‐term. Conversely, if the climate agreement happens to be short‐term or absent, intellectual property rights should be strengthened or technological licensing subsidized.     

R&D (Re)location and Offshore Outsourcing: A Management Perspective

The paper reviews and systematizes the management literature directly and indirectly related to (re)location of research and development (R&D), in the form of both insourcing and outsourcing. The focus in particular is on R&D offshore outsourcing and its main drivers, including locational constraints and opportunities, motives, strategic decisions and managerial challenges. The analysis synthesizes and links the main propositions and findings of the theoretical and empirical work to build an original management and strategy centred framework which looks at R&D (re)location from a client–vendor perspective. In this case, the client is the offshoring company, and the vendors are the firms located in the host country. The characteristics of the firms and locations considered vis‐à‐vis the offshoring firm's goals are examined, the strategies implemented, the management and organizational challenges that R&D offshore outsourcing entails, and the ways in which offshoring impacts on both home and host locations are investigated.