四方控制权制衡、自由现金流量与过度投资行为

目前关于过度投资的研究主要集中在债务融资对过度投资行为的影响上,关于公司控制权制衡与过度投资行为关系的研究基本还是空白。本文通过对自由现金流量和过度投资行为的进一步分析,从控制权制衡角度出发,构建以股东、董事会、监事会和债权人四方为主的过度投资行为制衡模型,研究我国上市公司控制权制衡、自由现金流量与过度投资行为之间的关系。     

企业过度投资的成因及其治理——基于自由现金流量的视角

企业过度投资会造成资源的浪费,影响企业价值的实现,自由现金流量是导致企业过度投资的主要原因之一。由于信息不对称、代理问题和股权制衡等方面的原因,经理层倾向于使用自由现金流量进行过度投资。企业可以通过完善资本市场建设、完善公司治理机制和优化经理奖惩机制等方面抑制自有现金流量引发的过度投资。     

自由现金流量中投资收益的核算及改进

正目前,自由现金流量已被广泛用于企业价值评估、理财评价、代理问题、股利分配决策等领域,其核算的准确性严重影响着使用者的判断。资本市场的不断发展,使得对外投资产生的投资收益对企业营业利润的影响越来越大。自由现金流量的界定自由现金流量是哈佛大学詹森教授于1986年提出的一个新的财务概念。他认为:自由现金流量是企业在满足所有具有正的净现值的投资项目所需资金后多余的那部分现金流量。由于自由现金流量没有严     

自由现金流量、银行债务契约与盈余管理

本文基于自由现金流量假说与债务控制假说,研究我国自由现金流量引发的盈余管理问题,并从银行监管视角出发,实证研究不同债务期限结构对盈余管理的影响,研究结果发现,低成长机会的公司,自由现金流量将引发经理人操控操纵性应计利润的行为,长期负债与短期负债对自由现金流量引发的盈余管理影响方向不同。进一步研究发现,银行债务契约对国有上市公司与非国有上市公司的影响方向不同,这说明国有上市公司在政府保护下,存在债务软约束的问题。     

市场中性策略简介

市场中性策略是一种新近出现的、通过中性化市场风险，利用证券之间相对价格的变化来谋求绝对收益的一种投资策略。本文对市场中性策略的理念、投资策略的决策过程、优缺点以及在我国使用这种投资策略将要遇到的问题和制度缺失等问题做一个扼要的介绍，并提出相应的政策建议。     

试论基于剩余收益的净现值法

剩余收益不仅可以作为一项投资绩效评价指标,还可以用来计算投资项目的净现值,进行项目投资决策分析。与传统的基于现金流量的净现值法相比较,基于剩余收益的净现值法不仅计算结果一致,而且实现了项目投资决策评价与项目投资绩效评价的有效统一。     

带有交易费用的证券投资最优策略

在假设证券价格服从几何布朗运动的基础上,运用随机最优控制理论,研究了在ｎ 个风险证券金融市场中带有交易费用的证券投资问题,建立了带有交易费用的证券投资最优控制问题的数学模型．首先,简述了文中所涉及的随机最优控制理论,给出了值函数、效用函数和粘性解的定义．然后,在粘性解的意义下,推导出了交易策略有限和交易策略无限两种情况下值函数所满足的偏微分方程,该偏微分方程是由变分不等式描述的自由边值问题．最后,给出了两种情况下基于最优控制问题值函数的证券投资最优策略．本文得到的结果可以用于投资基金管理、金融风险管理等实际工作中,提高决策的科学性     

投资项目经济分析与风险研究

在投资项目净现值的计算中,根据未来可能出现的情况对现金流量和贴现率的测算都应该进行及时修正,才能提高经济可行性评价的准确性和可靠性,有效地避免投资风险。本文针对我国中、小企业的现状,阐述了企业基础管理、市场调研和预测、国内国际经济信息的掌握等都是影响项目现金流量和贴现率的主要因素,并通过对项目的经济性论证指标、投资规模的合理确定、投资风险的准确计量三方面的分析与研究,阐明了企业在不确定性的情况下投资决策应注意风险的问题。     

会计信息质量与过度投资的关系研究

以我国2004～2006年制造业上市公司的数据为样本,对会计信息质量和企业过度投资的关系进行了实证研究.结果发现:会计信息质量与企业过度投资存在显著负相关,提高会计信息质量可以抑制企业的过度投资行为;在自由现金流量较多的上市公司中,会计信息质量与过度投资呈现出更强的负相关,提高会计信息质量能对该类企业的过度投资产生更大的治理效应.这为我国治理企业过度投资提供了新的路径.     

自由现金流量假说检验:审计收费视角

本研究在控制相关变量下,采用非金融上市公司面板数据,应用混合回归和固定效应回归实证检验自由现金流量和审计收费之间的关系,从审计收费角度检验自由现金流量假说。本研究提供的经验数据表明,自由现金流量和审计收费显著正相关,验证了自由现金流量假说。     

具有模糊收益的项目投资组合优化方法

基于可能性理论,研究了投资项目具有模糊收益的多项目投资组合的决策问题。在假设投资项目各年净现金流为三角模糊数的条件下,运用可能性均值和方差,建立了基于现值指数法的单投资项目模糊收益指标和模糊风险评价指标,同时,在此基础上建立了基于模糊可能性均值与方差的多项目投资组合优化模型,提出了最优项目投资组合的算法。最后,给出实际算例说明了方法的可行性和有效性。     

What growth rate can you achieve?

This paper investigates the relationships between the profitability, rate of investment and growth rate of a business, and the cash surplus thereby produced. These relationships can be applied to a company as a whole, or to the individual businesses within that company.The basic relationships derived are financial and do not take explicit cognizance of the physical volume sold. They thus enable a business to be considered as a money-making machine, regardless of the product involved. They also do not require definition of inflation per se, although this factor will obviously have an impact on certain of the others.A company as a whole can be considered as a portfolio of separate businesses, each having a different profitability and growth rate, and each contributing a surplus or deficit to the overall cash flow. Understanding the underlying relationships for each business will facilitate portfolio planning, where the cash demands of some businesses have to be met by the surpluses provided by others.     

All the bottles in one basket? Evaluating the effect of intra-industry diversification on risk

This paper develops a framework using Monte Carlo simulation to examine risk/return properties of intra-industry product portfolio composition and diversification. We use product-level data covering all Swedish sales of alcoholic beverages to describe the risk profiles of wholesalers and how they are affected by actual and hypothetical changes to product portfolios. Using a large number of counterfactual portfolios we quantify the diversification benefits of different product portfolio compositions. In this market the most important reductions in variability come from focusing on domestic products and from focusing on product categories that have low variability. The number of products also has a large effect in the simulations, moving from a portfolio of 10 products to one of 20 products cuts standard deviation of cash flows in relation to mean cash flows by more than half. The concentration of import origins plays a minor quantitative role on risk/return profiles in this market.     

Cash Flow Modelling and Forecasting in Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty*

The subject of this paper is modelling and forecasting of cash flows generated by a capital investment. The paper proposes the application of autoregressive, moving average, and mixed autoregressive moving-average processes to capital budgeting. In addition, models for deterministic, stochastic and seasonal trends are considered. For each class of cash flows, analytical expressions are developed for the mean and variance of a project's net present value (NPV). Also considered are several equilibrium pricing models. For two of them, the forecasting methodology developed here is integrated into the pricing equation. Although the overall emphasis of the paper is on modelling and forecasting of cash flows, the implications for NPV pricing and risk analysis are also investigated. Several examples are used to illustrate the impact of particular cash flow models on the price and risk of a project.     

从委托理财收益率看上市公司委托代理问题

本文将委托理财收益率作为研究对象,考察了上市公司的委托代理问题.通过研究发现,"可操控现金"与委托理财收益率显著负相关;若给定"可操控现金",大股东持股比例越高的公司其委托理财收益率越高.这一结果说明,"可操控现金"越多,上市公司的委托代理问题越严重;大股东的持股比例越高,其对管理层代理问题的约束力越强.研究还发现国外同类研究常用的"自由现金流"变量不能捕捉这一现象.     

The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment

Traditional models of capital budgeting with taxes are based on deterministic tax rates and tax bases. In reality, however, there are multiple sources of tax uncertainty. Frequent tax reforms make future taxation of investments a stochastic process. Fiscal authorities and tax courts create additional tax uncertainty by interpreting current tax laws differently. Moreover, simplified models that anticipate the actual tax base incorrectly contribute to tax uncertainty as perceived by investors. I analyze the effects of stochastic taxation on investment behavior in a real options model. The investor holds an option to invest in an irreversible project with stochastic cash flows and stochastic tax payments. Pre-tax cash flows and tax payments are assumed to be correlated. Increased tax uncertainty has an ambiguous impact on investment timing. For low tax uncertainty, high cash flow uncertainty and high correlation of cash flows and tax payments, increased tax uncertainty is likely to accelerate investment. A higher expected tax payment delays investment. A higher after-tax discount rate affects investment timing ambiguously.     

Earnings per share is a poor indicator of performance

One of the greatest dangers in corporate financial planning is failing to separate investment decision making from financial policy, because poor quality investments can appear to be desirable as a result of the particular financing vehicle employed. Management's focus of attention should not be rates of growth and earnings per share or return on net worth. Rather, the most important measure of corporate performance is the rate of return on total capital employed. The paper identifies the dangers of employing an earnings per share criterion for evaluating corporate performance, and suggests an alternative: focusing on a company's free cash flow, net operating profits after taxes minus the amount of new capital investment required in order to generate future profits. The author presents an analytical framework employing his free cash flow concept which can be applied to pricing and financing acquisitions.     

基于投资组合和现金流的风险投资退出决策研究

本文借鉴投资组合理论,结合项目组合现金流的特点,构建了风险投资项目组合的决策模型,并设计了模型的动态规划求解方法。该模型在保证现金资源合理配置的前提下,考虑了风险投资组合退出的时机与方式,实现了全局收益的最大化。     

International business taxation and the business cash flow tax

Investments and business profits are internationally mobile. Countries respond by tackling international profit shifting. As a result, the international allocation of taxable profits becomes an increasingly complex and costly issue. Reform proposals either address the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development approach to international profit allocation or target tax bases that are less mobile than profits. This paper investigates cash flow as a tax base. A business cash flow tax abolishes current accrual accounting and has the potential to block international profit shifting. Financing vanishes to become a tax-planning tool because the investments’ market return is tax free under a cash flow tax. Profit shifting via intra-group transactions is eliminated if the business cash flow tax is based on the country of destination principle. However, a destination-based business cash flow tax might distort the investment decisions of international groups.     

惯性因子跟踪策略的有效性：来自中国股票市场的证据

基于惯性/反转效应普遍存在的现象以及中国股票市场上不能直接实施惯性/反转投资策略的事实,提出能灵活抓住惯性/反转效应的惯性因子跟踪策略。通过建立和求解惯性因子跟踪策略模型,我们发现,在允许卖空的条件下,最优惯性因子跟踪组合满足两基金分离定理,两基金分别是惯性因子模仿组合和最小方差组合。选择沪深300十大行业指数作为风险资产的代表,实证考察惯性因子跟踪组合的业绩,并与等权组合和最小方差组合的业绩进行比较。结果发现：惯性因子跟踪组合可以在保持和等权组合、最小方差组合风险水平相当的情况下带来更高的收益水平和夏普比率,平均而言,惯性因子跟踪组合的年化超额收益率(8.88%)比等权组合的年化超额收益率高出3.7%,夏普比率(0.42)高出0.18;即便在考虑交易成本的情况下,惯性因子跟踪组合的净夏普比率仍然高出等权组合0.16;综合上方获利和下方风险控制两个方面看,惯性因子跟踪组合优于等权组合。惯性因子跟踪策略的有效性相对于惯性因子的计算方法和样本数据选择区间具有稳健性。