安徽省城市创新能力评价的实证研究

文章从城市的知识创新能力、技术创新能力、产业创新能力、制度创新能力、服务创新能力和创新环境6个方面出发,构建了城市创新能力评价指标体系,并利用SPSS软件进行因子分析和聚类分析,得出安徽省城市创新能力的评价分析结果,为加快安徽省创新型城市建设提供决策依据。     

论城市商业银行授信风险控制模型的建模与应用问题

城市商业银行作为承担多重经营风险的金融企业,如何规避风险是其在经营中求发展的关键;而如何创建和应用有效的度量风险的模型,并用以防范和控制各类风险更是银行业经营的核心.本文对两种风险度量模型,即多元线性判别分析以及其改进形式--主成分分析进行了有益的探索,并进行了相应的应用测试;从理论上与实践上论证了其有效性和实用性.     

消费者品牌敏感影响因素的实证研究

本文通过实证研究,运用因子分析、聚类分析以及累积logistic回归分析等统计方法得出影响消费者品牌敏感行为的6个主要因素,它们分别是参照群体的品牌消费行为、消费者的价格敏感度、质量感知、群体规范压力感知、名牌包装行为和对品牌消费文化所持态度.     

企业效益评价因子分析模型及应用

本文将因子分析方法应用于社会科学领域的经济评价系统。从一些错综复杂的经济现象中找出少数几个主因子,每一个主因子代表经济变量之间相互依赖的一种经济作用,抓住这些主因子就可以帮助我们对复杂的经济问题进行分析和解释。在简要介绍因子模型以后,从实证分析的角度,选取深沪股市高科技板块 2 0家上市公司1998年中期的一系列经济评价指标,采用因子分析方法,并借助社会科学统计软件SPSS,进行企业的综合经济效益分析评价,得出因子分析是一种进行企业综合效益评价的有效方法。     

行业成长周期性分析

行业周期性是任何一个行业都要经历的有成长到衰退的一个演变过程.而行业的成长性特点能更好地有助于我们把握一个行业所处周期性的一个阶段,也可以让我们更好地评价一个行业的成长性的能力.本文主要通过运用财务与统计指标建立指标体系,综合考虑指标的选取原则以及数据的可获得性情况,选取出评价行业绩效的指标,构建指标体系.在已构建的指标体系基础上,对其进行主成分分析,得出各行业第一、第二主成分得分及综舍得分.根据各行业综合得分,将各行业进行排名,评价各行业的成长能力,判断行业所处生命周期阶段,推选出绩效良好、成长能力强的优质行业.     

电力行业上市公司盈利能力综合分析与评价

作为与国民经济发展紧密相关的行业,电力行业在目前国内经济发展中保持着良好的发展势头,电力上市公司作为反映整个行业的一个窗口,由于业绩优良,同时具有稳定的成长性,长期以来一直作为资本市场关注的热点.行业中上市公司股票由于其行业特性,一向给投资者稳健有余、激情不足的印象.而在行业整体特性之外,不同的公司可分为不同的类型.电力板块炒作中应当谨防"羊群效应".本文通过利用SPSS统计分析软件进行上机计算,应用因子分析方法对电力行业22家典型上市公司进行了盈利能力综合分析和评价,最终得出电力行业上市公司八大不同类别.     

基于主成分分析和灰色关联聚类分析的指标综合方法研究

在进行多指标分析和评价的过程中,首先对指标进行灰色关联聚类分析,将指标分成若干可以定义的类,每个聚类代表同一类指标;其次对每个聚类进行主成分分析,提取主成分,获得该类指标的主成分集合;最后基于权重思想综合所有聚类的主成分集合,形成既反映全体指标信息又体现指标聚类差异性的综合指标.通过一个算例说明该方法计算方便,客观合理.     

移动服务质量的多维多层尺度测量模型构建

基于广泛的文献综述和定量研究,同时结合移动商务的独特性,提出了多维多层尺度测量移动服务质量模型,结果显示,移动服务质量测度模型是一个3层的度量结构,它由3个主维度(交互质量、环境质量和结果质量)和10个子维度(态度、专长、解决问题、信息、设备、设计、位置、准时性、有形性和引拒值)共同组成来度量移动服务质量.然后,利用SPSS13.0软件对调查数据结果进行信度分析,剔除了4个不满足标准的测度项;并通过主成分分析对剩余的测度项做探索性因子分析,结果证明模型中的因子结构是合理的,这样,最终确定了43个题项用来测度模型中的维度.     

酒店文化认同分布的实证研究

基于酒店基层员工视角,通过访谈和问卷调查,得到该酒店文化认同的总体状况;然后通过主成分分析和聚类分析得到相应的分布状况,并分离出创新型、支持型和离职型3种子文化群体.在主成分数量确定的判别准则上综合应用Velicer判别准则和Horn平行判别准则,提高了主成分维度模型的稳定性和泛化性;通过求解Pseudo-F最大值来确定最优聚类数量,相比观察Dendrogram图,更加客观准确.     

全国地区经济发展水平动态比较研究

本文主要依据1996-2002年统计年鉴数据,对全国31个省、市、自治区的地区经济发展水平进行动态分析.首先对所选的经济指标做因子分析,得出三个意义较为明确的公共因子;再用这三个公共因子对31个行政区划做聚类分析,从而得到各地区经济发展层次分布状况,以期为全国及各地区未来的经济规划提供参考.     

A Revised Economic Analysis of Restrictions on the Use of Cell Phones While Driving

Evidence that cell phone use while driving increases the risk of being involved in a motor vehicle crash has led policymakers to consider prohibitions on this practice. However, while restrictions would reduce property loss, injuries, and fatalities, consumers would lose the convenience of using these devices while driving. Quantifying the risks and benefits associated with cell phone use while driving is complicated by substantial uncertainty in the estimates of several important inputs, including the extent to which cell phone use increases a driver's risk of being involved in a crash, the amount of time drivers spend using cell phones (and hence their aggregate contribution to crashes, injuries, and fatalities), and the incremental value to users of being able to make calls while driving. Two prominent studies that have investigated cell phone use while driving have concluded that the practice should not be banned. One finds that the benefits of calls made while driving substantially exceed their costs while the other finds that other interventions could reduce motor vehicle injuries and fatalities (measured in terms of quality adjusted life years) at a lower cost. Another issue is that cell phone use imposes increased (involuntary) risks on other roadway users. This article revises the assumptions used in the two previous analyses to make them consistent and updates them using recent data. The result is a best estimate of zero for the net benefit of cell phone use while driving, a finding that differs substantially from the previous study. Our revised cost-effectiveness estimate for cell phone use while driving moves in the other direction, finding that the cost per quality adjusted life year increases modestly compared to the previous estimate. Both estimates are very uncertain.     

A survey of DEA applications

The literature of data envelopment analysis (DEA) encompasses many surveys, yet all either emphasize methodologies or do not make a distinction between methodological and application papers. This study is the first literature survey that focuses on DEA applications, covering DEA papers published in journals indexed by the Web of Science database from 1978 through August 2010. The results show that on the whole around two-thirds (63.6%) of DEA papers embed empirical data, while the remaining one-third are purely-methodological. Purely-methodological articles dominated the first 20 years of DEA development, but the accumulated number of application-embedded papers caught up to purely-methodological papers in 1999. Among the multifaceted applications, the top-five industries addressed are: banking, health care, agriculture and farm, transportation, and education. The applications that have the highest growth momentum recently are energy and environment as well as finance. In addition to the basic statistics, we uncover the development trajectory in each application area through the main path analysis. An observation from these works suggests that the two-step contextual analysis and network DEA are the recent trends across applications and that the two-step contextual analysis is the prevailing approach.     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code

We have studied the sensitivity of health impacts from nuclear reactor accidents, as predicted by the CRAC2 computer code, to the following sources of uncertainty: (1) the model for plume rise, (2) the model for wet deposition, (3) the meteorological bin-sampling procedure for selecting weather sequences with rain, (4) the dose conversion factors for inhalation as affected by uncertainties in the particle size of the carrier aerosol and the clearance rates of radionuclides from the respiratory tract, (5) the weathering half-time for external ground-surface exposure, and (6) the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Predicted health impacts usually showed little sensitivity to use of an alternative plume-rise model or a modified rain-bin structure in bin-sampling. Health impacts often were quite sensitive to use of an alternative wet-deposition model in single-trial runs with rain during plume passage, but were less sensitive to the model in bin-sampling runs. Uncertainties in the inhalation dose conversion factors had important effects on early injuries in single-trial runs. Latent cancer fatalities were moderately sensitive to uncertainties in the weathering half-time for ground-surface exposure, but showed little sensitivity to the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Sensitivities of CRAC2 predictions to uncertainties in the models and parameters also depended on the magnitude of the source term, and some of the effects on early health effects were comparable to those that were due only to selection of different sets of weather sequences in bin-sampling.     

Validating Benefit and Cost Estimates: The Case of Airbag Regulation

Preregulation estimates of benefits and costs are rarely validated after regulations are implemented. This article performs such a validation for the mandatory automobile airbag requirement. We found that the original 1984 model used to estimate benefits became invalid when 1997 values were input into that 1984 model. However, using a published 1997 cost-effectiveness model, we demonstrate, by replacing the model inputs with the values from 1984, that the 1997 cost-effectiveness ratios, based on real-world crash data and tear-down cost data, are less attractive than what would have been originally anticipated. The three most important errors in the 1984 input values are identified: the overestimation of airbag effectiveness, the overestimation of baseline fatality/injury rates, and the underestimation of manual safety belt use. This case study, which suggests that airbags are a reasonable investment in safety, shows that the regulatory analysis tools do not always produce findings that are biased against health, safety, and environmental regulation. Future validation studies of health, safety, and environmental regulation should focus on validation of benefit and risk estimates, areas where we found significant error, as well as on cost estimates.     

Structural and Treatment Analyses of Safe and At-Risk Behaviors and Postures Performed by Pharmacy Employees

This study employed structural and treatment analyses to determine factors that contributed to wrist posture safety in a small pharmacy. The pharmacy was located on a university campus and participants were three female pharmacy technicians. These particular employees had experienced various repetitive-motion injuries that resulted in a total of 36 lost days and 161 restricted days. Observers collected observational data on the participants' wrist posture in the presence and absence of an improvised wrist support device that participants placed under the computer keyboard.?Average percentage safe for wrist position with a wrist support was higher for all three participants when compared to wrist position without a wrist support. These results indicated that the participants' wrist posture was considerably safer when the wrist support was present. The structural analysis proved valuable for aiding in the development of an intervention and in identifying variables that were responsible for the participants' wrist posture.     

Two phase parametric and probabilistic NPV calculations, with possible deferral of disposal of UK nuclear waste as an example

This paper illustrates the value of several particular features of a first phase parametric approach to discounted cash flow (DCF) decision analysis when significant uncertainty is involved. It also illustrates the value of second phase probabilistic approaches to selected parameters for five quite different example reasons. The most controversial example reason concerns the discount rate. The particular example used to illustrate both phases may stimulate general interest because of the important issues involved, but it is argued that the two phase approach as a whole has a wide range of applications for decisions large and small.     

Interdisciplinary Vision: The First 25 Years of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 1980–2005

In early 1979 Robert B. Cumming recognized the growing need for risk researchers and practitioners to publish their work in a dedicated professional journal. This led to the formation of an organization to support such a journal, with the Certificate of Incorporation for the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) made official on August 28, 1980. The first issue of Risk Analysis: An International Journal appeared in March 1981. This article reviews the history of the SRA's first 25 years. It reviews the SRA's formation and growth, provides analyses of its major products (the journal, newsletter, conferences, and meetings), and discusses its impact. This article relies on published literature and a history of the SRA's first 20 years written by two of the authors. This history covers the SRA's many successes, which demonstrate the strength and vitality of the organization and provide optimism for its future. These successes include this journal, which published over 2,150 papers between March 1981 and this December 2005 issue. The successes also include its stable membership of approximately 2,000 members from 43 countries, well-attended annual meetings, and increasing support for true international growth as demonstrated by international risk forums like the World Congress on Risk held in Brussels in June 2003. Similarly, the history also covers the SRA's challenges and difficulties, with the recognition that these provide both an important context about the organization and the opportunity to learn from past experiences. These include the challenges associated with spin-off organizations that decreased the SRA membership in some disciplinary areas, notably in engineering and exposure assessment. This history also includes quantitative analyses of the contents of the first 25 years of Risk Analysis: An International Journal. The results show significant growth in the number of articles published each year, starting with approximately 30 articles published in the first few years to over 120 articles per year now. They also show a relatively even distribution of articles in the life, physical, and social sciences, which demonstrate the sustained commitment of the SRA and the journal to support interdisciplinary risk-related research. The SRA organizational structure currently includes two sections (SRA-Europe and SRA-Japan), 22 Chapters, and nine Specialty Groups, and the structure remains somewhat in flux. We present this history in five sections that cover major themes: (1) SRA formation, (2) membership and organization, (3) publications, (4) meetings, and (5) thematic issues. Like any organization of its size, the SRA boasts a long and diverse history, and no article can possibly capture it all. We hope that in documenting the first 25 years, we strengthen the SRA by providing some perspective on its roots and a rigorous quantitative analysis of some of its products.     

Tools for Comparative Analysis of Alternatives: Competing or Complementary Perspectives?

A third generation of environmental policy making and risk management will increasingly impose environmental measures, which may give rise to analyzing countervailing risks. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of all risks associated with the decision alternatives will aid decision-makers in prioritizing alternatives that effectively reduce both target and countervailing risks. Starting with the metaphor of the ripples caused by a stone that is thrown into a pond, we identify 10 types of ripples that symbolize, in our case, risks that deserve closer examination: direct, upstream, downstream, accidental risks, occupational risks, risks due to offsetting behavior, change in disposable income, macro-economic changes, depletion of natural resources, and risks to the manmade environment. Tools to analyze these risks were developed independently and recently have been applied to overlapping fields of application. This suggests that either the tools should be linked in a unified framework for comparative analysis or that the appropriate field of application for single tools should be better understood. The goals of this article are to create a better foundation for the understanding of the nature and coverage of available tools and to identify the remaining gaps. None of the tools is designed to deal with all 10 types of risk. Provided data suggest that, of the 10 types of identified risks, those associated with changes in disposable income may be particularly significant when decision alternatives differ with respect to their effects on disposable income. Finally, the present analysis was limited to analytical questions and did not capture the important role of the decision-making process itself.     

多变量分析方法在银行储蓄所绩效评价中的应用

本文利用主成份分析结合模糊聚类分析方法评估银行基层机构—储蓄所的绩效。利用主成份分析抽取出评价的主成份。然后用模糊聚类分析,将储蓄所分为绩效不同的类。在分类的基础上评价各类储蓄所。