What are the determinants of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States?

This paper presents estimates of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States and the determinants of those phenomena. The estimates are derived by fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to survey data on age at first birth and by letting the parameters of the model depend on covariates. Substantively, the results provide evidence that the low first birth fertility rates experienced in the 1970s were due to both delayed childbearing and to increasing levels of permanent childlessness. The results also indicate that (a) delayed childbearing is less prevalent among black women than among nonblack women; (b) education is an important determinant of delayed childbearing whose influence on this phenomenon seems to be increasing across cohorts; (c) education is positively associated with heterogeneity among women in their age at first birth; (d) the dispersion of age at first birth is increasing across cohorts; (e) race has an insignificant effect on childlessness; and (f) education is positively associated with childlessness, with the effect of education increasing and reaching strikingly high levels for the most recent cohorts.     

Changes in childlessness in the United States: A demographic path analysis

Summary This paper describes changes in the incidence of marital childlessness among United States women since 1940 and tests a model to explain recent observed trends toward increasing childlessness. Based on U.S. Bureau of the Census sources, data are presented that indicate a substantial increase in childlessness for married women under 30 years of age since 1960. A path model is developed based on previous research on childlessness, in an attempt to explain this change. The model is composed of 1960-70 changes in (1) mean age at first marriage, (2) mean educational attainment, (3) the proportion of women in the labour force, (4) the proportion of women enrolled as students, (5) the incidence of marital disruption, and (6) the proportion of women living in urban environments. Using quarter-year age cohort data derived from the 1960 and 1970 1/100 Public Use Samples the results indicate that a substantial part of the increase in childlessness csn be explained by this model. Particularly important were increased enrolment of married women in education, labour force participation, and mean age of first marriage. The results suggest the relevance of structural changes along with birth expectation attitudes in predicting trends in childlessness in the United States.     

Comparing characteristics of voluntarily childless men and women

Voluntary childlessness among women has been well researched, but the theories derived from that work may not apply to men. In this paper, we test whether or not female-derived explanations of voluntary childlessness are applicable to voluntarily childless men. We use US data from the National Survey of Family Growth to compare voluntarily childless men to other men and to voluntarily childless women in an effort to determine the distinctions between groups. We examine four long-held explanations of female voluntary childlessness and test their application to men: demographic, socialization, economic, and attitudinal differences. We find that demographic and socialization variables predict voluntary childlessness in both men and women similarly. Traditional sex role belief decreases the probability of being voluntarily childless for both men and women, though the effect is slightly stronger for women. However, variables associated with economic theory do not predict voluntary childlessness for men. Most importantly, education is not a significant predictor of voluntary childlessness for men, while it greatly increases the chances of being voluntarily childless among women. We conclude that new theories of voluntary childlessness need to be developed or existing theories refined to take into account the gendered routes to childlessness—especially theories explaining the different effect of education on men’s and women’s childlessness.     

Marriage (Still) Matters: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Trends in Childlessness in the United States

Childlessness in the United States nearly doubled between 1980 and 2000. Other dramatic changes in the U.S. population also took place over this period—notably, women’s average educational attainment increased, and the proportion marrying declined—but the impact of these changes on childlessness has not been formally examined. In this article, I use data from the Current Population Survey Fertility Supplements (1995, 1998, 2004, 2008) and logistic regression and regression-based decomposition techniques to assess the contribution of changes in educational attainment, marriage behavior, and racial/ethnic composition on population levels of childlessness in the United States. Results show that increases in the proportion of women unmarried by age 40 contributed most to the increase in childlessness in the late twentieth century, although these increases were offset somewhat by increased childbearing among unmarried women. The rising proportion of women with a college degree also explained a substantial amount of the increase in childless women.     

A model of voluntary childlessness

Demographers and sociologists have studied why women remain childless for more than two decades; however, this specific choice of zero fertility has not interested economists. Permanent childlessness, in developed countries, can concern up to 30 % of the women in a cohort. Childlessness rates can be positively related to average fertility for some cohorts of women. This paper provides an explanation for this using an endogenous fertility model where individuals have different preferences for children. The main mechanism considered goes through the intergenerational evolution of preferences: I show that a reduction in the gender wage gap, or an increase in the fixed cost of becoming a parent, has a negative effect on both fertility and childlessness. The reduction of childlessness is due to a composition effect: small families shrink more than larger families, and this reduces childlessness.     

Where have all the children gone? Women's reports of more childlessness at older ages than when they were younger in a large-scale continuous household survey in Britain

Levels of childlessness reported by the same cohorts of women and surveyed by the British General Household Survey increase with age by over 50 per cent between their early 40s and their late 50s for women born in the early 1940s. Yet the reported mean fertility of parous women remains constant with increasing age. Similar results hold within sub-groups such as different educational and marital status groups. Possible reasons for these findings include declining comparability of the base population over time due to differential migration, mortality, or institutionalization, changes in survey design and content, and differential non-response by childless and parous women. The evidence shows that these are not adequate explanations. The most likely reason is deliberate under-reporting of childbearing among older cohorts of women. The findings have implications for the interpretation of retrospective data in surveys and for the availability of informal care for older people.     

What’s happening to the age at first birth in the United States? A study of recent cohorts

This paper analyzes cross-cohort trends in the age pattern of women at first birth in the United States. The analysis involves fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to the age distribution of first birth frequencies for a number of recent white and nonwhite cohorts. Methodologically, the results (a) provide support for the application of the Coale-McNeil marriage model to first birth data, and (b) demonstrate the ability of the model to accurately project first birth fertility for cohorts which have yet to complete their childbearing years. Substantively the results indicate (a) that the proportion of women who will never have a first birth is increasing across cohorts and can be expected to be as high as .25 and .20 for recent white and nonwhite cohorts respectively; (b) that recent nonwhite cohorts have an appreciable number of first births at earlier ages than their white counterparts, as well as a lower mean age at first birth and increasingly less dispersion (across cohorts) in their age at first birth; and (c) that the mean age at first birth and the proportion of first births occurring between ages 25 and 34 is increasing across cohorts of white women but is stable across cohorts of nonwhite women.     

Fertility,life cycle stage and female labor Force participation in Rhode Island: A retrospective overview

Considerable historical evidence indicates a long term increase in female labor force participation in the United States during the twentieth century. However, there are only limited data available for analyzing this secular trend in any depth. Comprehensive retrospective data for a representative sample of 1,578 once-married Rhode Island women are utilized to examine the changing historical relationships between female work participation in selected life cycle intervals and educatonal attainment. The data indicate that there has been a recent convergence of labor force rates between better and less educated women, in some instances reversing the traditional pattern of higher labor force rates for less educated women. This convergence reflects primarily an extraordinary in-crease in labor force participation for women with at least twelve years of school at all stages of the childbearing period. Also highlighted is the close relationship between labor force participation in one life cycle interval and probability of participation in subsequent intervals. It is found that working or not working in one life cycle is a useful predictor of subsequent work participation. Also, a greater tendency for more recent cohorts of women to re-enter the labor force after childbearing is noted.     

Changes in childlessness for all women in the United States: A reply to Spencer

Abstract The analysis of changes in childlessness as opposed to structural correlates of childlessness is quite new. Our focus on indicators of such changes called for a macro-analytic framework which would permit the test of changing features of population characteristics and the relationship between structural changes in different population cohorts. An appropriate data set was one that would permit the analysis ofchanging levels ofchildlessness in age cohorts and the changes in population characteristics which would offer possible explanations for the changing childlessness pattern.     

Changes in childlessness for all women in the United States: A reply to Spencer

The analysis of changes in childlessness as opposed to structural correlates of childlessness is quite new. Our focus on indicators of such changes called for a macro-analytic framework which would permit the test of changing features of population characteristics and the relationship between structural changes in different population cohorts. An appropriate data set was one that would permit the analysis ofchanging levels ofchildlessness in age cohorts and the changes in population characteristics which would offer possible explanations for the changing childlessness pattern.     

Delayed childbearing in the United States

This article analyzes the phenomenon of delayed childbearing in the United States. It begins by exploring problems associated with the definition and measurement of delayed childbearing. Existing empirical evidence of the phenomenon is reviewed and some new evidence is presented. A general theoretical framework for analyzing delayed childbearing is outlined and discussed in relation to existing theories. The article also provides a critical substantive and methodological review of evidence on the correlates and implications of delayed childbearing. Finally, public and private policy-related aspects of delayed childbearing are considered.     

Cohabitation and family formation in Japan

This article documents the prevalence, duration, and marital outcomes of cohabiting unions in Japan. It then examines the correlates of cohabitation experiences and also describes differences in the family-formation trajectories of women who have and have not cohabited. Cohabitation has increased rapidly among recent cohorts of women, and cohabiting unions in Japan tend to be relatively short in duration and are almost as likely to dissolve as to result in marriage. Life table analyses demonstrate that the cumulative probabilities of marriage and parenthood within marriage are roughly similar for women who did and those who did not cohabit. The most notable difference is in the pathways to family formation, with women who cohabited more likely both to marry subsequent to pregnancy and to delay childbearing within marriage. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that cohabiting unions in Japan are best viewed as an emerging prelude to marriage rather than as an alternative to marriage or singlehood. We conclude with speculation about the likelihood of further increases in cohabitation in Japan and the potential implications for marriage and fertility.     

Absent Non-Fathers: Gendered representations of voluntary childlessness in Swedish newspapers

This article applies a media frame analysis in order to highlight representations of voluntary childlessness in Swedish newspapers. The analysis identifies how childfree couples are framed as carefree, fulfilled and content. Childfree women on the other hand are framed as struggling with problems, stereotypes and doubts. Childfree men are absent and implicitly framed as unconcerned and unaffected. Even in the only newspaper article that draws attention to men and voluntary childlessness the voice of the childfree man is absent. Instead of a childfree man a father of six is interviewed and presented as an exception. To explain these different frames this article argues that gender stereotypes, maternalism, pronatalism and heteronormativity influence who is constructed as newsworthy when news media report on voluntary childlessness. While the feminine identity and women's social role is conflated with motherhood, the link between fatherhood and masculinity is weaker. Because men's parenthood roles are indistinct so are men's roles as non-parents. As a result a father to a daughter in a previous relationship can be represented as part of a carefree and childfree couple. Consequently, childfree women are more newsworthy than childfree men, and a father of six is more newsworthy than a non-father.     

Age and parity influences on maternal mortality: United States, 1919–1969

Comparisons of crude and standardized rates of maternal mortality show that changes in age and parity distributions of births had some influence on maternal mortality trends for the years 1919-1969 in the United States. Changes in the age and parity distributions of births for cohorts of U.S. women also influenced crude cohort maternal mortality rates to some extent.     

The Public Acceptance of Voluntary Childlessness in the Netherlands: from 20 to 90 per cent in 30 years

Within a relatively short period of 30 years, public acceptance of voluntary childlessness has increased enormously in the Netherlands. In this paper, we address two research questions, which we answer with data from 13 waves of the repeated cross-sectional survey Cultural Change in the Netherlands (CCN, 1965–1996). First, we investigate to what extent the increasing permissiveness is due to cohort replacement and to intra-cohort change. We find that between 1965 and 1980 the change is primarily due to intra-cohort (period) effects, whereas cohort replacement has become more important since 1980. Second, we address the question which social categories constitute the 10% of the population who do not accept voluntary childlessness. Church attendance—and not religiosity or religious socialization—turns out to be the most important factor. Low levels of income and education also negatively affect the acceptance of voluntary childless.     

Subnational Non-Hispanic White Natural Decrease in the United States

This research is the first to examine the prevalence and dynamics of non-Hispanic white natural decrease in fine scale subregional units of the United States. In 2015, more non-Hispanic Whites died than were born in 65 percent of the US counties. This is the highest incidence of non-Hispanic white natural decrease ever reported. It results from a complex interaction among fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. Spatial regression is used to identify three critical variables (over-65 population, child–women ratio, and women of childbearing age) that are the immediate demographic causes of this natural decrease. The timely, factual information in this paper provides a demographic context for analysis of the social, political, and policy implications of this emergent demographic phenomenon.